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[teruterubozu]

Basically nobody gives a shit about the debates until SNL does a skit. ^

 

[Tim-E]

Romney spent the primaries debating an army of morons that he mostly agreed with on most issues. People think he's some master class debater just wanting to come out, but I think people forget that his opponents in the primaries were idiots and they were playing to a crowd of idiots. The guy gets flustered anytime a hard question is asked of him and he hasn't had to debate someone from the opposing party since 2003, and then he was basically running as a moderate, unlike today. Romney's dug himself into a corner with these unpopular far right positions; he'll either get shit for going into detail with unpopular ideas or he'll get shit for not going into detail at all. This guy has spent the year proving that he's a legitimately bad politician and I don't understand why liberals are terrified he has some game changer performance within him.

 

[teruterubozu]

Romney spent the primaries debating an army of morons that he mostly agreed with on most issues. People think he's some master class debater just wanting to come out, but I think people forget that his opponents in the primaries were idiots and they were playing to a crowd of idiots. The guy gets flustered anytime a hard question is asked of him and he hasn't had to debate someone from the opposing party since 2003, and then he was basically running as a moderate, unlike today. Romney's dug himself into a corner with these unpopular far right positions; he'll either get shit for going into detail with unpopular ideas or he'll get shit for not going into detail at all. This guy has spent the year proving that he's a legitimately bad politician and I don't understand why liberals are terrified he has some game changer performance within him.

If W can do it. I mean really, W was a horrific debater but made it through. I don't put much stock on these debates. It's just another stupid out-of-context soundbyte assembler.

 

[Oblivion]

The Reason-Rupe September 2012 poll includes our favorite ideological questions to differentiate libertarians from liberals and conservatives. Using three questions, we can define libertarians as respondents who believe “the less government the better,” who prefer the “free market” to handle problems, and who want government to “favor no particular set of values.” These fiscally conservative, socially liberal voters represent 20% of the public in the Reason-Rupe poll, in line with previous estimates.

Among these likely libertarian voters, the presidential horserace currently stands:

Romney 77%
Obama 20%
Other 3%

Romney’s share of the libertarian vote represents a high water mark for Republican presidential candidates in recent elections.

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/09/28/funny-definition-of-libertarian-you-boys-have-here/

Glad that wasn't my imagination after all.

 

[Basileus777]

http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/09/28/funny-definition-of-libertarian-you-boys-have-here/

Glad that wasn't my imagination after all.

Romney wins big among the far right fringe, shocker.

 

[teruterubozu]

Romney wins big among the far right fringe, shocker.

Socially liberal isn't exactly far right.

 

[HylianTom]

For me, Tina Fey was about 25% of why Election 2008 will always be so damn memorable. The way SNL set the narrative that year was remarkable.

If someone ever made a four-hour DVD of 2008 news clips starting with the conventions, going through the SNL sketches, the debate highlights, major news events of August through Election Day, the best of ongoing cable news clips/analysis, and then footage from Election Night coverage as each state was called, ending with concession and victory speeches.. I'd pay an incredible price for all of it. A high price, indeed.

Heck, make it a six-hour DVD. If done properly, it would be an incredible snapshot of an incredible window in time.

 

[Byakuya769]

One of the main reasons I've looked forward to these debates.

When subject to measurement he'll be forced to collapse his wave form.

Haha, science humor.

 

[Byakuya769]

Socially liberal isn't exactly far right.

I honestly see most of that "social liberalism" demonstrated by attitudes of "don't care." So like the poll demonstrates, yes they say they have socially liberal values, but have no really problem voting for socially conservative platforms to support faux market liberalism.

It's almost as if their social liberalism really is just a social declaration to eschew embarrassment or something.

(sorry for the dp)

 

[CharlieDigital]

RNC cuts ties with firm over voter fraud allegations

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...s-with-firm-over-voter-fraud-allegations?lite

Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be "hundreds” of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republican National Committee to register Republican voters in five key battleground states, state officials tell NBC.

The suspected fraud included apparent cases of dead people being registered as Republican voters, said Paul Lux, the supervisor of elections in Okaloosa County and a Republican. He compared the suspected fraud to the alleged acts of ACORN, the liberal activist group that became the center of a national controversy several years ago.

"It's kind of ironic that the dead people they accused Acorn of registering are now being done by the RPOF" [Republican Party of Florida], Lux said in an interview with NBC News.

Out of 304 Republican voter registration forms recently dropped off by a Strategic Allied employee at a small "satellite office" of the Palm Beach elections office, 106 were flagged as potentially fraudulent-- including "a lot" with "similar looking" signatures and others with apparently phony addresses, Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach elections supervisor, said in an interview.​

 

[Oblivion]

One of the main reasons I've looked forward to these debates.

When subject to measurement he'll be forced to revert to Vista edition.

Fixed.

 

[gutter_trash]

oh shit.
North Carolina is in play. That will probably by the tightest of them all. Florida + North Carolina Oh my

 

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Big PoliGAF lurker here. Going to see Mittens this morning at Valley Forge Military Academy in suburban Philly. My wife signed me up to get a ticket at about 4 but put in the wrong e-mail address. Tried again at 11:00 last night with the right address and got a ticket. Point is I don't think these things are moving quickly. I expect that they'll be alot of cadets there filling up seats but we'll see.

Wish me luck, I'm going in.

At the least you can go to Valley Forge....granted it is nasty outside today.

 

[ChairmanMeow]

Haven't seen this posted yet: a nice/simple visualization of how the EVs stack:

http://www.isbarackobamathepresident.com/

 

[RustyNails]

And so it is written and so it shall come to pass.

Nothing is written!

 

[codhand]

Among these likely libertarian voters, the presidential horserace currently stands:

Romney 77%
Obama 20%
Other 3%

Romney’s share of the libertarian vote represents a high water mark for Republican presidential candidates in recent elections.

Romney and libertarians agree:
Double-down on trickle-down.

 

[David Incorporated Esq.]

RNC cuts ties with firm over voter fraud allegations

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...s-with-firm-over-voter-fraud-allegations?lite

Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be "hundreds” of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republican National Committee to register Republican voters in five key battleground states, state officials tell NBC.

The suspected fraud included apparent cases of dead people being registered as Republican voters, said Paul Lux, the supervisor of elections in Okaloosa County and a Republican. He compared the suspected fraud to the alleged acts of ACORN, the liberal activist group that became the center of a national controversy several years ago.

"It's kind of ironic that the dead people they accused Acorn of registering are now being done by the RPOF" [Republican Party of Florida], Lux said in an interview with NBC News.

Out of 304 Republican voter registration forms recently dropped off by a Strategic Allied employee at a small "satellite office" of the Palm Beach elections office, 106 were flagged as potentially fraudulent-- including "a lot" with "similar looking" signatures and others with apparently phony addresses, Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach elections supervisor, said in an interview.​

When you put this next to Pelosi saying "Don't Antagonize, Organize!" (on Maddow's show) is the proper response to the GOP's voter "fraud" actions (registration restrictions, voter roll purges, actual fraud, etc.) it makes my blood boil. The grossly immoral and illegal methods that the GOP is pursuing should be a driver for legal action but it doesn't appear that anybody gives a shit.

Florida removes legal citizens from the registration lists because they may be scary immigrants (or dem voters) and Pelosi's response is "Let's organize extra hard to make sure people register and get the IDs they need!" No! Fucking do something you docile shit!

Yes I'm pretty mad about this.

 

[Tim-E]

If W can do it. I mean really, W was a horrific debater but made it through. I don't put much stock on these debates. It's just another stupid out-of-context soundbyte assembler.

Idiot or not, Bush was a much better politician than Romney could ever dream of being. He came off as likable even when he had no substance. Romney not only has no substance or convictions, but he's horribly unlikable as well.

 

[matthewwhatever]

If W can do it. I mean really, W was a horrific debater but made it through. I don't put much stock on these debates. It's just another stupid out-of-context soundbyte assembler.

W was helped a lot by the fact the media hated his opponents. Romney doesn't have that help this time around, outside of Fox. In fact, right now he's in the Gore/Kerry position, with the media actively looking for things that will push a certain negative narrative.

 

[teruterubozu]

Idiot or not, Bush was a much better politician than Romney could ever dream of being. He came off as likable even when he had no substance. Romney not only has no substance or convictions, but he's horribly unlikable as well.

True, but if likeability is a factor then it's kind of moot for this election. Nobody is going to suddenly love Obama after the debates. Some may lose interest in Romney, but basically these debates come down to "HaHa! Your candidate said something stupid". It's really kind of become a tiresome process. Technically, by the GOP saying "don't expect much from Romney" at the debates, they are reducing its importance in the conservative mind - as in don't pay too much attention to the debates.

W was helped a lot by the fact the media hated his opponents. Romney doesn't have that help this time around, outside of Fox. In fact, right now he's in the Gore/Kerry position, with the media actively looking for things that will push a certain negative narrative.

I don't know. The media was pretty harsh with Bush's gaffes throughout the debates.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

Are you guys talking about the UN General Assembly in here? I can't find a thread for it.

Not really, try using the search function

 

[Tim-E]

True, but if likeability is a factor then it's kind of moot for this election. Nobody is going to suddenly love Obama after the debates. Some may lose interest in Romney, but basically these debates come down to "HaHa! Your candidate said something stupid". It's really kind of become a tiresome process.



I don't know. The media was pretty harsh with Bush's gaffes throughout the debates.

Obama's likability is already way up and Romney's is way down. People's minds are already made up on who they're voting for. These debates aren't going to matter much in the end, but my point was that many liberals can't help but think that every event is going to be the end of the road for them. Obama's campaign is incredibly smart and efficient, he's campaigning on some popular successes from his term and other popular ideas to push in his next, the poor economy is not blamed on him by most people, and his opponent is running one of the worst campaigns in modern history. I know democrats had it rough over the last decade, but the defeatist attitude doesn't really get you anywhere.

 

[teruterubozu]

Obama's likability is already way up and Romney's is way down. People's minds are already made up on who they're voting for. These debates aren't going to matter much in the end, but my point was that many liberals can't help but think that every event is going to be the end of the road for them. Obama's campaign is incredibly smart and efficient, he's campaigning on some popular successes from his term and other popular ideas to push in his next, the poor economy is not blamed on him by most people, and his opponent is running one of the worst campaigns in modern history. I know democrats had it rough over the last decade, but it's okay to not freak out over every thing now.

Oh I agree, I'm not trying to pull a PD here. I'm also saying that debates are only mildly influential and not the "ultimate showdown" that people make it out to be.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

Obama's likability is already way up and Romney's is way down. People's minds are already made up on who they're voting for. These debates aren't going to matter much in the end, but my point was that many liberals can't help but think that every event is going to be the end of the road for them. Obama's campaign is incredibly smart and efficient, he's campaigning on some popular successes from his term and other popular ideas to push in his next, the poor economy is not blamed on him by most people, and his opponent is running one of the worst campaigns in modern history. I know democrats had it rough over the last decade, but the defeatist attitude doesn't really get you anywhere.

Independents have their mind completely made up? Me thinks you underestimate the importance of these debates.

 

[jbug617]

Independents have their mind completely made up? Me thinks you underestimate the importance of these debates.

I think independents are leaning towards one candidate and they use the debates to confirm their feelings.

 

[teruterubozu]

Independents take pride in not taking a side right away. They love being catered to. Fucking ridiculous.

 

[sc0la]

Romney and libertarians agree:
Double-down on trickle-down.

I call it dribble down now.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

I think independents are leaning towards one candidate and they use the debates to confirm their feelings.

Right. I just find it hard to believe that people who self identify as independents already have their minds completely made up. The debates are very useful for the average American who doesn't post in this thread or check CNN daily.

 

[teruterubozu]

Right. I just find it hard to believe that people who self identify as independents already have their minds completely made up. The debates are very useful for thenaverage American who doesn't post in this thread or check CNN every day.

Those people wait for the SNL skit.

 

[Tim-E]

Independents have their mind completely made up? Me thinks you underestimate the importance of these debates.

"Winning" the debates sure helped Kerry, didn't it? People's minds are generally made up by this point in the year. In 19 of the last elections, the candidate leading in the polls at the end of September went on to win 18 times.

Do presidential debates really matter? Ever since John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon squared off on television in 1960, debates have held an iconic status. They continue to draw enormous audiences, while political junkies note for history each flub, gaffe or quip.


This fall, for instance, pundits are declaring that the Oct. 3 face-off in Denver, the first of three confrontations between President Obama and Mitt Romney, is a do-or-die opportunity for the Republican candidate.

But scholarship on presidential elections strongly suggests that while the presidential debates may make for must-see TV, their impact on voters’ decisions is minimal.

“My bottom line is that you can’t say with certainty that debates don’t matter, but you can’t find any evidence that they do,” says James Stimson, a political scientist at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and the author of the 2004 book “Tides of Consent: How Public Opinion Shapes American Politics.”

Researchers who have crunched the numbers from hundreds of polls over past elections have found that by the time debates are broadcast in the autumn, almost all the people who will vote in the election have already made up their minds. Most of those who tune in already have strong partisan feelings and watch like they would a football game.

Stimson says a better predictor of November’s winner is whoever is ahead before the debates take place. That would give Romney little more than a week to regain momentum, although the candidates were tied in a Gallup tracking poll midway through last week.

This model should prove particularly true in 2012, Columbia University political scientist Robert Erikson says, because “it seems like people have made up their minds earlier than certainly in the distant past and maybe even more so than even in 2008 or 2004.”

The latest Gallup daily tracking poll has the number of undecided respondents at just 6 percent. The true late deciders who show up on Election Day, Erikson says, typically split 50-50 between the candidates.

In his book, Stimson cites the 1980 election between incumbent Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan — when the challenger famously asked voters in the final debate if they were better off than they were four years before — as the single instance when late-election polling seemed to indicate that the debates had affected the outcome. Only four years earlier, Carter’s poll numbers went down, not up, after President Gerald R. Ford made a gaffe by declaring that Eastern Europe wasn’t under Soviet domination.

More recently, John Kerry may have won his 2004 debates against George W. Bush, according to many commentators. But those wins, Erikson says, “didn’t really matter much in terms of moving the needle in terms of voter choices.”

Erikson and co-author Christopher Wlezien conclude in their new book, “The Timeline of Presidential Elections,” that voters form preferences through an incremental process that takes months. Data indicates that the made-for-TV events of the party conventions lock in more votes than do the debates.

So do these overdramatized political moments still have a place in presidential elections even if they have little influence on voters? Northeastern University journalism professor Alan Schroeder, author of a book on the first 50 years of debates, thinks so. He says viewers “can’t help but learn something” from the debates. “You’re watching two people talk about serious issues for 90 minutes, and that’s quite rare in modern life.”

Schroeder likes one small change in format that the notoriously cautious Commission on Presidential Debates has made for the first session this year: Candidates will be able to discuss specific domestic policy issues in a less formal manner over 15 minutes instead of the classic format that restricts responses to one or two minutes.

“I think the idea of not making these candidates slaves to the clock is a very promising innovation,” Schroeder says.

http://public.cq.com/docs/weeklyreport/weeklyreport-000004157308.html

 

[Plinko]

RNC cuts ties with firm over voter fraud allegations

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...s-with-firm-over-voter-fraud-allegations?lite

Election officials in six Florida counties are investigating what appears to be "hundreds” of cases of suspected voter fraud by a GOP consulting firm that has been paid nearly $3 million by the Republican National Committee to register Republican voters in five key battleground states, state officials tell NBC.

The suspected fraud included apparent cases of dead people being registered as Republican voters, said Paul Lux, the supervisor of elections in Okaloosa County and a Republican. He compared the suspected fraud to the alleged acts of ACORN, the liberal activist group that became the center of a national controversy several years ago.

"It's kind of ironic that the dead people they accused Acorn of registering are now being done by the RPOF" [Republican Party of Florida], Lux said in an interview with NBC News.

Out of 304 Republican voter registration forms recently dropped off by a Strategic Allied employee at a small "satellite office" of the Palm Beach elections office, 106 were flagged as potentially fraudulent-- including "a lot" with "similar looking" signatures and others with apparently phony addresses, Susan Bucher, the Palm Beach elections supervisor, said in an interview.​

Wow. LOL at the irony with this one.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Those people wait for the SNL skit.

Good thing the Romney campaign has been nothing but one long SNL skit

 

[Basileus777]

"Winning" the debates sure helped Kerry, didn't it?

It helped bring him inches away from winning the Presidency after his Bush pulled noticeably ahead of him during the Summer. Kerry didn't win, but that doesn't mean the debates didn't help him. You have a point to make, but Kerry isn't the best example.

 

[pigeon]

Right. I just find it hard to believe that people who self identify as independents already have their minds completely made up. The debates are very useful for the average American who doesn't post in this thread or check CNN daily.

The vast majority of self-identified independents aren't swing voters. Frankly, this year, even the majority of swing voters aren't swing voters. Truly undecided voters are at their lowest percentage ever this year. Blame the Internet -- it's just harder to never hear any news at all now. So I think it's reasonable to suggest that most of the people who would ordinarily be wandering around in 1944 not knowing who Hitler is have actually chosen a side this year.

 

[Tim-E]

It helped bring him inches away from winning the Presidency after his Bush pulled noticeably ahead of him during the Summer. Kerry didn't win, but that doesn't mean the debates didn't help him. You have a point to make, but Kerry isn't the best example.

I know they helped tighten the polls during the month of October, but I'm just trying to say that "winning" debates doesn't ensure a poll surge that leads to victory.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

"Winning" the debates sure helped Kerry, didn't it? People's minds are generally made up by this point in the year. In 19 of the last elections, the candidate leading in the polls at the end of September went on to win 18 times.

I didn't say anything about winning debates, that's subjective. All I said is the debates are useful for independents and uninformed voters, aka most of America. Not everyone reads poligaf daily or watches the news, these debates cater more so to that audience and are important. Simply dismissing them does not make any sense to me, sorry.

EDIT: Also, I'll just leave this here - http://voices.washingtonpost.com/behind-the-numbers/2008/10/reagans_comeback.html

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Bush has better favorables than Romney...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/28/bush_viewed_more_favorably_than_romney.html

 

[Gucci Messiah]

The vast majority of self-identified independents aren't swing voters. Frankly, this year, even the majority of swing voters aren't swing voters. Truly undecided voters are at their lowest percentage ever this year. Blame the Internet -- it's just harder to never hear any news at all now. So I think it's reasonable to suggest that most of the people who would ordinarily be wandering around in 1944 not knowing who Hitler is have actually chosen a side this year.

I'm in college so maybe I have a different perspective but most of the people here at my school are not politically active. I would describe them as swing voters or independents since they generally have no party ties. These people rely on the presidential debates to decide who they are going to vote for, ignoring pretty much everything else that has gone on prior.

 

[codhand]

Bush has better favorables than Romney...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/28/bush_viewed_more_favorably_than_romney.html

As he should, if Bush governed with half the humility he shows now, I would not have minded him nearly as much.

"miss me yet" applies more to libs than conservatives...

 

[thefro]

As he should, if Bush governed with half the humility he shows now, I would not have minded him nearly as much.

"miss me yet" applies more to libs than conservatives...

Bush is a RINO compared to the current Republican party except on foreign policy.

 

[codhand]

Does Kosmo's post count always go down in relation his party's chances?

 

[Cheebo]

I'm in college so maybe I have a different perspective but most of the people here at my school are not politically active. I would describe them as swing voters or independents since they generally have no party ties. These people rely on the presidential debates to decide who they are going to vote for, ignoring pretty much everything else that has gone on prior.

You college is extremely abnormal then. College age voters are overwhelmingly commited to Obama. He'll win that 18-25 age group by massive margins. Like very high double digit type of margins.

 

[pigeon]

I'm in college so maybe I have a different perspective but most of the people here at my school are not politically active. I would describe them as swing voters or independents since they generally have no party ties. These people rely on the presidential debates to decide who they are going to vote for, ignoring pretty much everything else that has gone on prior.

What college do you go to? College students in the main are an overwhelming Democratic stronghold, despite the possibility that they may be too cool to self-identify as a particular party, and don't usually follow politics -- that's why Obama keeps putting Scarlett Johannson on his GOTV ads. So it's probably a mistake to assume that they're true swing voters -- most of them are probably just "unlikely voters," and a good chunk of the rest probably would vote Democratic regardless of anything that actually happens in the debates.

I mean, or I might be missing a demographic change that explains why all these libertarians keep popping up on NeoGAF. That's certainly possible.

 

[smokeandmirrors]

Quick question that's probably somewhere here in the thread. What day is the debate again?

 

[Tim-E]

Quick question that's probably somewhere here in the thread. What day is the debate again?

Next Wednesday.

I mean, or I might be missing a demographic change that explains why all these libertarians keep popping up on NeoGAF. That's certainly possible.

Libertarians don't exist outside of the internet.

 

[Mike M]

Quick question that's probably somewhere here in the thread. What day is the debate again?

First is next Wednesday

 

[Cheebo]

I mean, or I might be missing a demographic change that explains why all these libertarians keep popping up on NeoGAF. That's certainly possible.

You aren't missing anything. Polls continue to show Obama ranking up his highest margins and getting his most commited support from college age voters. This guy just goes to college is some kind of bizzaro universe. College students are one of Obama's key bases of support.

 

[richiek]

Does Kosmo's post count always go down in relation his party's chances?

He sees the writing on the wall.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

You college is extremely abnormal then. College age voters are overwhelmingly commited to Obama. He'll win that 18-25 age group by massive margins. Like very high double digit type of margins.

Most college kids, based on my experience as an upper class (in terms of grade), actively involved political science major; don't give a crap about politics. Most aren't going to vote, I bet only ~30-35% of eligible voters end up voting. That doesn't take away from the fact that most who do vote are in the Obama camp.

EDIT: gramatical error

 

[RDreamer]

Bush has better favorables than Romney...

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/28/bush_viewed_more_favorably_than_romney.html

That seems crazy. Liberals hate the guy, and conservatives have turned on him for the most part, too. Or at least they'll admit that yeah Bush was a large part of the debt scare they currently have.