Support NeoGAF

[Cloudy]

Ouch at that Ohio poll.

If Obama wins OH, WI and IA, he has 270 even if he loses FL, VA, NC, CO, NM, and NV.

 

[Hitokage]

If Obama wins OH, WI and IA, he has 270 even if he loses FL, VA, NC, CO, NM, and NV.

Or give him NV instead of IA, and same result.

 

[Cloudy]

Or give him NV instead of IA, and same result.

He is polling better in IA though. Either way, it looks like Romney needs a game-changer

 

[Clevinger]

New NBC/Marist Polls.

OH 51 43

Hopefully this stresses him out before the debate. Those are some terrible numbers to wake up to.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Champions League and debate, what a way to spend the evening and a sleepless night. Guys I think I might be too scared to watch the debates. I always feel incredibly embarassed seeing others get humiliated. It's one of the reasons that famous McCain Obama video kills me even though I despise McCain.

 

[codhand]

It is time.

everyonechillthefuckoutigothis.jpg

 

[watershed]

Been saying it for weeks now, Romney will be the winner of the debate according to the "MSM". The question is what will fox news complain about?!!!!

 

[codhand]

Been saying it for weeks now, Romney will be the winner of the debate according to the "MSM". The question is what will fox news complain about?!!!!

Romney will win because he has way more accomplishments to talk about, also when it comes to proposals his are all nailed down tight.

Spoiler

gtfoh

 

[gcubed]

This media boogeyman on the left always strikes me as humorous since its almost a mirror of the right.

 

[smurfx]

bet you romney wears a huge american flag pin and fox news will complain about obama's pin being much smaller.

 

[codhand]

My home made electoral map
jpg

Hold me to it gaf

Pretty bold picking Nate Silver's map

 

[Agnostic]

bet you romney wears a huge american flag pin and fox news will complain about obama's pin being much smaller.

Pin? We're wearing flags now.

 

[Black Republican]

New NBC/Marist Polls. Obama ahead. Lead up in Ohio, down in VA and FL.

OH 51 43
VA 48 46
FL 47 46

Always thought VA would be tighter and i was right, but pretty much leads in most of the va polls, pretty amazing obamas doin better in FL polls now then back against mccain. Ohio.......yeah.

 

[codhand]

Found this from 2008:

Florida: Obama up 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 51 - 43 percent post-debate;
Ohio: Obama up 49 - 42 percent pre-debate and 50 - 42 percent post-debate;
Pennsylvania: Obama ahead 49 - 43 percent pre-debate and 54 - 39 percent post-debate.

Today's date in 2008:

Obama was up two in FL, three in VA, and two in OH in 08, on this date.

Here is a county map of 08 post election:

From www.electoral-vote.com

 

[polyh3dron]

New NBC/Marist Polls. Obama ahead. Lead up in Ohio, down in VA and FL.

OH 51 43
VA 48 46
FL 47 46

bwaaaahahaha where is your god now pd

 

[Basileus777]

Found this from 2008:


Today's date in 2008:

Those Senate numbers make me cry, especially knowing now that the Republicans will almost certainly take control of the Senate in 2014 with all those Dems on defense in a mid-term election. These next two year are going to be Obama's last chance to get anything done.

 

[Bisnic]

Is there any links for us worlwide outsiders to watch the US presidential debate? I want to see how bad Romney will be.

 

[JCizzle]

Is there any links for us worlwide outsiders to watch the US presidential debate? I want to see how bad Romney will be.

I'm sure cspan in addition to all the big 24 hour news channels will stream online.

 

[thefro]

I'll be much happier once we get this first debate in the books.. I'm a little nervous this morning like it's the morning of a really big sports event for one of the teams I root for.

This is really Romney's best shot to make up ground.

 

[codhand]

Is there any links for us worlwide outsiders to watch the US presidential debate? I want to see how bad Romney will be.

CSPAN.org is your friend.

Edit. Beaten like McCain in 08.

 

[RDreamer]

Romney bumper stickers and lawn sign sightings have gone up exponentially here in the last few weeks.

 

[Fatalah]

Romney bumper stickers and lawn sign sightings have gone up exponentially here in the last few weeks.

Scares birds away.

 

[codhand]

God I'm hyped.

Someone recommend me an ironic beer to purchase for tonight.

Edit I know!

 

[Link Man]

Romney bumper stickers and lawn sign sightings have gone up exponentially here in the last few weeks.

Well, in my county we just opened our Republican campaign center last Friday night (which was also the first opportunity to get signs).

 

[CharlieDigital]

For comparison.

 

[Mario]

CNN just reported on the "First Lady bakeoff", apparently held every year since 1992, and apparently only failing to predict the presidential race winner once (and that was in 2008).

Michelle took the competition with 51.5% of the vote for her white and dark chocolate chip cookies versus Anne's M&M cookies.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/10/02/michelle-obama-wins-critical-first-lady-cookie-contest/

 

[LegendofJoe]

I strongly believe Obama needs to go after the Congressional Republican record over the last four years in tonight's debate. It is as equally dismal as it is pathetic. If he knows their record from beginning to end since he took the Oath of Office he should be able to counter every punch Romney throws him regarding his handling of the economy.

 

[Patriots7]

New NBC/Marist Polls. Obama ahead. Lead up in Ohio, down in VA and FL.

OH 51 43
VA 48 46
FL 47 46

A few good performances from Romney/Ryan in the coming debates, and it's definitely still a possibility for a Romney win, electoral math and all.

Looking forward for tonight.
I want to see Romney make an argument other than "I oppose everything Obama has done" and for Obama to actually focus on his plans if reelected rather than simply highlight the fact that Romney is a strategic and successful businessman who is out of touch.

 

[Krauser Kat]

CNN just reported on the "First Lady bakeoff", apparently held every year since 1992, and apparently only failing to predict the presidential race winner once (and that was in 2008).

Michelle took the competition with 51.5% of the vote for her white and dark chocolate chip cookies versus Anne's M&M cookies.

http://newsfeed.time.com/2012/10/02/michelle-obama-wins-critical-first-lady-cookie-contest/

Thats not that many samples for an average.

 

[Mario]

Thats not that many samples for an average.

I don't think anyone takes it as a serious prediction.

 

[sc0la]

Had a dream I attended the debate. Sat next to Romney before hand and wished him luck. Asked me if he had my vote and when I told him no he scowled lol.

Spending waaaay to much time on poligaf lol

 

[Averon]

A few good performances from Romney/Ryan in the coming debates, and it's definitely still a possibility for a Romney win, electoral math and all.

Looking forward for tonight.
I want to see Romney make an argument other than "I oppose everything Obama has done" and for Obama to actually focus on his plans if reelected rather than simply highlight the fact that Romney is a strategic and successful businessman who is out of touch.

I don't think the debates will change many people's minds. The number of undecided voters have been amazingly small this election. People have already made up their minds on who they'll vote for much earlier.

edit: ADP says 162,000 jobs for September

 

[codhand]

My prediction:

Romney will get smoked. Ohio will not swing 9 points, and Fox News will push it's agenda regardless.

Let's not forget Obama personally shot Osama between the sockets, and gave mouth-to-mouth to GM.

Had a dream I attended the debate. Sat next to Romney before hand and wished him luck. Asked me if he had my vote and when I told him no he scowled lol.

Spending waaaay to much time on poligaf lol

lol

 

[The Librarian]

Hm.

 

[codhand]

Hm.

Should balance out all the Romney zingers

Spoiler

siiike

 

[Mario]

Hm.

Yes, I note CNN is reporting the ADP employment report is 162k over an expected 133k, though they suggested the ADP report was above the official report the last few months.

 

[Brinbe]

Yep, Ohio just doesn't like Romney and that margin isn't closing regardless of Romney's performance tonight or the other debates. And remember, VA/FL aren't even necessary for a Bams win with Ohio locked down. As long as he carries WI/IA (along with the others he's expected to win), he's across the 270 threshold. He could lose NH/VA/NC/FL/CO/NV and still win.

 

[pigeon]

Hm.

Dat quantitative easing.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Hm.

ADP

ADP estimates that September private payrolls will rise by 162,000, which is stronger than the Econoday consensus for 140,000 and points to solid monthly acceleration from the disappointing 103,000 actual increase in the August employment report. How much ADP's call will affect expectations for Friday's employment report, which are flat and soft, is uncertain. ADP sometimes misses big, like the last report for August when it called for a big accelerating gain that turned out to be a small slowing gain. Futures are moving slightly higher following today's report.

ISM

Both the PMI's this morning are signaling modest growth which is good news for the nation's manufacturing sector. The ISM report is bouncing back following three months of contraction going back to June, but not for September with the index at a better-than-expected 51.5. The Dow is moving up in immediate reaction.

Details back the optimism with new orders, at 52.3, showing solid growth. Employment is the big plus in the September report, rising 3.1 points to a 54.7 level that indicates a surprisingly brisk pace of hiring. Negatives include a fourth month of contraction for new export orders, which reflects weak global markets, and a sixth straight contraction in total backlog orders. Manufacturers, waiting for new orders to pick up, have been working down backlogs in recent months which has been helping to keep up production. But production is in the negative column for the second straight month, but this will reverse if new orders keep coming in.

BLS: lolz, watch this.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

VA number isn't too bad compared to their last poll.

FL is a lot tighter though, some evidence that Romney Hispanic outreach is working especially in FL.

But if OH is gone (and if the margin is +4-5 after the debate it truly is), FL doesn't matter much to Obama.

 

[Y2Kev]

Why did Nate write an article about a tie with .6% likelihood lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

VA number isn't too bad compared to their last poll.

FL is a lot tighter though, some evidence that Romney Hispanic outreach is working especially in FL.

But if OH is gone (and if the margin is +4-5 after the debate it truly is), FL doesn't matter much to Obama.

There was another poll of FL today as well, from Suffolk, showing Obama up 3.

The TPM tracker has Obama as a ~3 point spread, so it seems the polls are approaching consensus.

I'm going to take particular pleasure in watching Romney lose Ohio. Let Detroit go bankrupt? How about no.

Why did Nate write an article about a tie with .6% likelihood lol

Boredom is the only reason I can think of.

 

[electricpirate]

ADP



ISM



BLS: lolz, watch this.

Good indicators? Get prepped for a baaaaaaaaad month.

 

[Basileus777]

Why did Nate write an article about a tie with .6% likelihood lol

He's got little else to talk about other than far-fetched hypotheticals. That and he's been trying pretty hard to make this race seem more competitive and get people to keep coming to the NYT site.

 

[Effect]

Good write up about last night's "bombshell" video.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/02/drudge-daily-caller-obama_n_1934441.html

 

[GhaleonEB]

Good indicators? Get prepped for a baaaaaaaaad month.

Someone's been posting notes about the seasonal adjustments that skewed the summer numbers by a good margin (I can't remember who); apparently they wash through as of September. So it's possible we may be surprised.

Also, reading up on tonight's debate format...I think this favor's Obama's tendency toward longer answers:

*** Tonight’s debate format: Here’s the format for tonight’s 90-minute debate from Denver, CO that begins at 9:00 pm ET: “There will be no rigid time limits, buzzers or cheering that often threatened to turn the Republican primary debates into a recurring political game show. The debate will be divided into six segments of 15 minutes, with ample opportunity for robust exchanges and a level of specificity that both sides have often sought to avoid,” the New York Times writes. Both Obama and Romney will stand at podiums. Obama gets the first question, and Romney gets to speak last in the closing remarks. And while there are no rigid time limits during each segment, each candidate gets two minutes to answer the opening question; the rest is free-flowing.

Good moderator and format for the first debate.

 

[Jackson50]

Tim Kaine seems to be maintaining a consistent lead in Virginia. And that's encouraging because it's inconceivable they'd return macaca to the Senate.

This media boogeyman on the left always strikes me as humorous since its almost a mirror of the right.

Yeah. The abiding fear of the narrative.

 

[Tamanon]

Someone's been posting notes about the seasonal adjustments that skewed the summer numbers by a good margin (I can't remember who); apparently they wash through as of September. So it's possible we may be surprised.

Also, reading up on tonight's debate format...I think this favor's Obama's tendency toward longer answers:



Good moderator and format for the first debate.

Hmm....that actually seems like a good debate format, or as good as we can get. Let's see how it holds up. Shame I'll be working through most of it.

 

[pigeon]

VA number isn't too bad compared to their last poll.

FL is a lot tighter though, some evidence that Romney Hispanic outreach is working especially in FL.

But if OH is gone (and if the margin is +4-5 after the debate it truly is), FL doesn't matter much to Obama.

You just made this up, though. Obama continues to lead by 17 points among Latinos in Florida. The loss of his lead among independents is what tightened the survey.

 

[RustyNails]

Good moderator and format for the first debate.

Sounds good, but risky. Room for debate being all over the place. Hope Lehrer can control it.