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[Ignatz Mouse]

Really the only tip off that the food thing was a fake was the quote about her railing against falafel being a gateway food to shwarma, etc. Otherwise it seemed perfectly in keeping with the sort of thing someone who calls for the investigation of a muslim born in Michigan and married to a jew for ties to terrorist organizations would say.

Who was that?

 

[XenodudeX]

I continue to think Romney will have a good debate, and feel you guys are overlooking some basic stuff here. This will be the first time voters get to see Obama and Romney together, and naturally this benefits challengers more than incumbents - assuming the challenger is competent and acceptable. Would anyone here argue Romney will not look and sound competent on stage tonight? He's a good debater and likely will not stumble over his own feet. That alone challenges the basic memes of this election, and I think voters will respond positively to it.

Whether he convinces people on policy grounds remains to be seen, but I think Romney will clearly pass the test of whether he's acceptable tonight.

Having a good debate won't flip the race upside down, as Chris Christie put it.

 

[Aaron Strife]

And to add to this, Obummer won't have his teleprompter telling him what to say and we all know he can't even form the most basic sentences without one.

Romney is winning this debate hands down and he will then win the Presidency with ease.

Already making adjustments to my map. Romney's winning Pennsylvania!

 

[ErasureAcer]

The downward trajectory of these videos continues : /

The first was so much better...

Obama's "Count it" was pretty good but yeah the first video was the best.

 

[reilo]

Why did Nate write an article about a tie with .6% likelihood lol

He probably has to write something every day for 538 as part of his NYT gig.

 

[Allard]

Having a good debate won't flip the race upside down, as Chris Christie put it.

Romney needs to have more then a 'good debate' he needs to come across as an unanimous success across the board that makes his opponent look incompetent. Which to me is why no matter what happens tonight Romney is doomed as Obama is probably not going to slip up during the debate and give Romney that chance to shine (assuming of course if it does happen he would have the ability to counter it without putting his own foot in his mouth). Obama might stumble with an answer here and there but he will still sound competent no matter what Romney has to offer. I laughed heartily at the 'zinger' quote from Romney's campaign as it just shows they have absolute no idea just how doomed they are from the outset.

Debates can flip races, but only close races. This race hasn't been close for a long while (electorally).

 

[PhoenixDark]

Why did Nate write an article about a tie with .6% likelihood lol

he has a new book to sell, and what better way to fish for a CNN interview?

 

[RDreamer]

New Marquette Law poll ant minute I guess.

If Akin wins, it begs the question what does it take to lose?

I wonder if this'll be what the right wing will say after Obama wins.

 

[CHEEZMO™]

When's the debate?

 

[GhaleonEB]

live boy, dead girl.

Unless you are Republican, in Missouri, apparently.

 

[watershed]

That's an interesting point, and true. But voters will have his opponent right there for comparison, and they'll have to choose. Even if they don't like him, they might determine they like him more than Obama

True, because we all know Romney holds a clear advantage over Obama in favorability ratings.

 

[RoninChaos]

Let's say Obama wins. Will Hannity and the rest of the right argue Obama was not properly vetted this time, too? They've thrown a lot of shit at the wall so far, and it'll get even uglier this month if Romney doesn't make the comeback I expect him to make.

Why do you think he's going to make a comeback? I'm curious.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Why do you think he's going to make a comeback? I'm curious.

He made a bet.

 

[Forever]

Why do you think he's going to make a comeback? I'm curious.

Because he's PD.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Even if they don't like him, they might determine they like him more than Obama

The only way this is possible is if someone thinks Romney isn't being enough of a flip-flopping elitist asshole.

 

[codhand]

Romney will obviously pull off an historic upset, against an incumbent president who (handily) defeated a decorated war veteran and 30 year senate member. It's simple arithmetic.

 

[reilo]

Why do you think he's going to make a comeback? I'm curious.

Because unlike most people that go through a phase in their young adulthood, PD has never seemed to have snapped out of his anti-establishment psychosis.

 

[Hitokage]

When's the debate?

9 EDT

 

[gcubed]

while a challenger gets a boost from just being on the same stage as a president, i think the debate format for tonight heavily favors Obama.

 

[RDreamer]

Marquette Law poll Says Baldwin's still up, but only by 4. 48-44

And just as I type that, an ad comes on using Thompson's "who better than me to get rid of Medicare" line.

 

[RoninChaos]

Because unlike most people that go through a phase in their young adulthood, PD has never seemed to have snapped out of his anti-establishment psychosis.

That's ironic. Mitt Romney would be part of the establishment problem in this country. So is the rest of congress, imo.

 

[codhand]

Post debate predictions:
Ohio numbers flip-flopped
Chris Christie drops 40lbs
Ahmadinejad secedes all nukes to Israel
Rush Limbaugh gets his TV show back

 

[Forever]

His head looks funny in this picture.

 

[Jadedx]

oh shit, I didn't know Keenan Ivory Wayans was running for president.

 

[RDreamer]

MULawPoll: New Marquette Law School Poll finds Obama (53%) with 11 pt lead over Romney (42%) in WI. Obama led by 14 pts two weeks earlier. #mulawpoll

MULawPoll: Both prez and Sen cands have more than 90% support within their parties, but independent opinions are shifting. #mulawpoll

MULawPoll: Independents split evenly in Senate race, Baldwin and Thompson each at 43%. Baldwin led among inds 2 weeks earlier. #mulawpoll

 

[PhoenixDark]

Why do you think he's going to make a comeback? I'm curious.

Polls are tightening and I don't believe Obama's lead is as large as others argue. States like Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, etc are not out of Romney's reach yet. Ohio seems like a lost cause, but Romney can win without it

 

[CHEEZMO™]

9 EDT

Cheers.

 

[reilo]

That's ironic. Mitt Romney would be part of the establishment problem in this country. So is the rest of congress, imo.

Establishments are relative.

 

[Brinbe]

nvm, read it wrong

 

[fallagin]

Man you guys, I'm so hype, but I'm also really scared that Obama is gonna get screwed somehow !!

 

[watershed]

I just figured out one way Romney can get an empathetic, human moment out of the debate. Early on in the debate he's going to congratulate Obama on his 20th wedding anniversary and say a few nice words about his family. He should do this before the debate gets rolling. No joke, if he does this it will be aired and talked about in post debate shows.

 

[Cheebo]

bahaha, Bams up 4 in NC from Ras!? (and above 50%) Unskew that!

This is Ras. They always do this. They will show Obama going up in all their polls the first half of this week, and then towards Romney to fit that Romney comeback narrative.

 

[gcubed]

Polls are tightening and I don't believe Obama's lead is as large as others argue. States like Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, etc are not out of Romney's reach yet. Ohio seems like a lost cause, but Romney can win without it

I can win the lottery also

 

[GhaleonEB]

Polls are tightening

I do expect the polls to tighten, and go back and forth a bit before election day. But:

You are saying what you want to happen, not what is presently happening.

 

[RDreamer]

Man you guys, I'm so hype, but I'm also really scared that Obama is gonna get skewed somehow !!

Fixed

 

[Particle Physicist]

It will be streamed pretty much everywhere (CNN, Fox CSPAN, major channels) and it starts at 9pm eastern.

cool, thanks.

 

[thefro]

This is Ras. They always do this. They will show Obama going up in all their polls the first half of this week, and then towards Romney to fit that Romney comeback narrative.

yep, and then they'll suddenly match the avg of the other pollsters in the last week so they can be "accurate".

 

[Dude Abides]

Romney will do fine. The debate will be roughly a draw. He'll get a few points in the polls, and that will be it.

 

[Particle Physicist]

The downward trajectory of these videos continues : /

The first was so much better...

To be fair, the first one had Santorum and Cain, hard to really top that.

 

[RDreamer]

So, with Obama still holding a huge lead and comin here tomorrow, I think Wisconsin's done. Romney's not getting near it at all.

 

[ezekial45]

So, with Obama still holding a huge lead and comin here tomorrow, I think Wisconsin's done. Romney's not getting near it at all.

I still can't believe Wisconsin is leaning to Obama after the Walker recall election. It just bugs me out.

 

[thecouncil]

just turned on foxnews.

Joe Trippi, manager of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign just said:

The best line [Romney]'s had all campaign was "Barack Obama promised you that he'd stop the seas from rising and heal the earth, I want to help you and your family." ... That was his finest moment. That line.

Wait... wait... that was considered a great line? I found it frightening, actually.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So, with Obama still holding a huge lead and comin here tomorrow, I think Wisconsin's done. Romney's not getting near it at all.

Yea, WI looks out of reach.

Here's a poll that includes which voters might be moved by the Debates. Romney has an advantage with these people:
http://www.resurgentrepublic.com/re...rst-debate-presidential-contest-remains-close

Nearly one-quarter of the electorate says what happens during the Presidential debate could affect their vote, a percentage significantly higher than those who are still undecided. President Obama holds a slight edge with these voters (47 to 43 percent), but this is a subgroup well suited for Governor Romney. They are more likely to be Independent (45 percent) than Republican (28 percent), or Democrat (26 percent). Two-thirds feel the country is on the wrong track, a higher percentage than the national electorate. Majorities disapprove of President Obama’s job performance and handling of the economy. Moreover, by 47 to 38 percent, they believe Governor Romney will do a better job on the economy.

Nate believes Romney will have a 1-2 point gain after the debates. Which is good nationally, but may not be good enough for OH.

 

[gcubed]

just turned on foxnews.

Joe Trippi, manager of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign just said:



Wait... wait... that was considered a great line? I found it frightening, actually.

not a great line. The best one he's said.

 

[Mike M]

just turned on foxnews.

Joe Trippi, manager of the 2004 Howard Dean campaign just said:



Wait... wait... that was considered a great line? I found it frightening, actually.

I suppose that could be interpreted as damning with faint praise.

 

[HylianTom]

I just figured out one way Romney can get an empathetic, human moment out of the debate. Early on in the debate he's going to congratulate Obama on his 20th wedding anniversary and say a few nice words about his family. He should do this before the debate gets rolling. No joke, if he does this it will be aired and talked about in post debate shows.

Actually not a bad idea. Not bad at all. Very classy.

 

[RDreamer]

I still can't believe Wisconsin is leaning to Obama after the Walker recall election. It just bugs me out.

A few reasons that: I think Wisconisn's more of a moderate democratic state overall, and we aren't heavily behind public unions. Also, walker successfully turned it into a referendum on the recall itself. He brought up the cost, and people bought it hook, line, and sinker. Also, Barrett is not a good candidate. Uninspiring, etc. you actually need to be votin for someone to get something done not just against someone. And the wait between outrage and recall was way too long, along with the fact that Walker had a ton of commercials for a really long time, and you have your answers.

 

[TiVo]

Nothing is ever a given but...

1. Tell me what Romney is going to say tonight or in any of the debates that he could not say before that is going to make any independent say "Oh my God!!! This is the man I am voting for"

2. If Romney did not get a bump but instead got a point drop after the convention with all the pomp and circumstance, dog and pony show with no one to contrast or contradict until the Democratic convention.

What makes anyone think that he can stand up against all eyes on him, against Obama's record or even Obama himself?

Chill the fuck out Obama's got this!!!

 

[syllogism]

Media poll analysis is so asinine. When a poll swings 1-2 points one way, it's called "tightening", while someone being up 2-4 points is "statistical tie". The margin of error is apparently only relevant when discussing the gap between the candidates (and even then it's misused; what the poll specifically says is statistically the most likely value within the range to be accurate) and completely irrelevant when discussing poll movement.

Granted, it's perfectly understandable because the alternative is usually just saying "well this poll doesn't really tell us anything"

 

[Allard]

I still can't believe Wisconsin is leaning to Obama after the Walker recall election. It just bugs me out.

Recalls rarely work for a reason, independents are largely going to stay out of it (or even vote for the incumbent) and it comes down to turn out of the partisans. Presidential elections are a completely different story, every race becomes important locally and nationally in presidential election years which gets voters out and independents become more involved in the process.