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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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Jackson50

Member
I don't think Obama wins NC and possibly VA after tonight. Florida will tighten up more and would not surprise in a 2 weeks to find out that Ohio might be in play again.

Obama and Clinton need to go to Ohio.
First, two additional debates intervene the election. So Obama could still outperform Romney. Second, that would require an unprecedented shift. Historically, debates have only nominally shifted public opinion. And in the one instance where the shift was appreciable, 2000, it was only a few points. And Obama's performance does not compare to Gore's. So, it's highly unlikely Romney benefits considerably from tonight.
 

Tamanon

Banned
This debate would hurt Obama if we already didn't have 6 years of seeing him. It wouldn't be a good first impression, but it's not like he has nothing else.
 

markatisu

Member
Sorry, what? If there's no magical moment, it's somehow a tie?

No but when you are down in as many states as Romney is there has to be a moment to do anything

Otherwise it does not mean anything, people don't remember overall things they need moments.

Romney needs that one thing to power him through, you can't come from behind just by doing OK or not fucking up
 
Like I said, I think Obama missed a chance to END the election. he didn't lose it tonight and I agree it probably won't shift opinions much.

But this was a chance to end Mitt's run, hurt downticket ballots, etc. Instead, the game goes on.
 

pigeon

Banned
Like 2008, these debates are going to do very little in shifting public opinion. Calm the fuck down, people.

This.

If this debate put Romney in a national lead it would be the largest poll swing in the history of Presidential debates.

Ask yourself: sure, Obama did poorly, but did he turn in the worst debate performance OF ALL TIME? Keep in mind he did not demonstrate disinterest in his wife's death, claim that the Soviets did not dominate Eastern Europe or compare himself to Jack Kennedy.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
CBS news commentator/analyst nailing Romney on details, and how tax cuts don't result in jobs..

I keep saying this will probably be the story from tonight. Normally the press gets no substance to talk about from the debates so it's all fluffy shit, this gives them something to talk about that isn't fluffy.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
I think the point that is being missed entirely, even if you think Romney "won": Did Romney do good enough of a job to come away as a clear and BETTER alternative to Obama?

No, not even close. His lack of ideas will still permeate through the electorate, and even if the message does reach some people, he still has to battle his insincerity problems -- and Romney did a piss-poor job of being seen as sincere tonight.

Like I said, I think Obama missed a chance to END the election. he didn't lose it tonight and I agree it probably won't shift opinions much.

But this was a chance to end Mitt's run, hurt downticket ballots, etc. Instead, the game goes on.

The election ended when Romney went to London.
 

thefro

Member
Ask yourself: sure, Obama did poorly, but did he turn in the worst debate performance OF ALL TIME? Keep in mind he did not demonstrate disinterest in his wife's death, claim that the Soviets did not dominate Eastern Europe or compare himself to Jack Kennedy.

What the fuck did Obama do poorly? Not go nuclear on Romney?

Did Romney detail an optimistic vision for what he is going to do in this country?
 
Like I said, I think Obama missed a chance to END the election. he didn't lose it tonight and I agree it probably won't shift opinions much.

But this was a chance to end Mitt's run, hurt downticket ballots, etc. Instead, the game goes on.

I agree completely. That's what's disapointing. I can't figure out WHY Obama didn't press him on all of those things. He let Romney set the tone, and even if it's the ignorant mother fuckers he set the tone for, Romney still controlled it. Obama did have a chance to end this and press Romney for the same thing others have. Why he didn't is BEYOND me.
 

markatisu

Member
I see this the same as Ryan's VP speech, OMG HE KILLED IT was the initial response. Then the fact checkers took over and in a matter of days the narrative because RYAN BOLDLY LIES
 

Brinbe

Member
Like I said, I think Obama missed a chance to END the election. he didn't lose it tonight and I agree it probably won't shift opinions much.

But this was a chance to end Mitt's run, hurt downticket ballots, etc. Instead, the game goes on.

The only way that was happening if Romney did that to himself, like Perry did in the primaries.

And how many undecided voters are there at this point? Relax
 

thefro

Member
I agree completely. That's what's disapointing. I can't figure out WHY Obama didn't press him on all of those things. He let Romney set the tone, and even if it's the ignorant mother fuckers he set the tone for, Romney still controlled it. Obama did have a chance to end this and press Romney for the same thing others have. Why he didn't is BEYOND me.

It was a choice debate, not "are you better off now?", so I'm not seeing how Romney controlled the debate.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I see this the same as Ryan's VP speech, OMG HE KILLED IT was the initial response. Then the fact checkers took over and in a matter of days the narrative because RYAN BOLDLY LIES

Yes, this is what will happen. If/when it does I will have so many salty tears to drink.
 

HylianTom

Banned
If the race does narrow (and I'm not quite convinced yet), I think we're going to see a 2004-style re-election instead of a 1996-style election. Ohio and Wisconsin are on lockdown. New Hampshire looks quite strong. This gets Obama to 269EVs.

Just one more state from FL/VA/CO/IA/NC/NV is needed.

Thus, the ice stays in my veins. :)

edit:
I love the idea that Republicans will have hope after tonight. It'll be all the better when their worst fears come true on Election Day. Seeing Obama re-elected will fucking break them, and it'll be so damn savory.. mmm..
 

Brinbe

Member
If the race does narrow (and I'm not quite convinced yet), I think we're going to see a 2004-style re-election instead of a 1996-style election. Ohio and Wisconsin are on lockdown. New Hampshire looks quite strong. This gets Obama to 269EVs.

Just one more state from FL/VA/CO/IA/NC/NV is needed.

Thus, the ice stays in my veins. :)

Why do you think they're concentrating so much on early voting in IA? ;)
 

Jackson50

Member
In case you guys didn't notice, Obama's already lost one vote. Time to face reality.

cartoon_soldier said:
Stop talking about where you agree on.

Also:
@rebeccagberg
What one undecided voter told me recently comes to mind tonight: backed Obama in '08 bc he appeared more self-assured than McCain in debates
So, who appears more self-assured?
 

RDreamer

Member
Had to listen to the debate on my phone since I had to work. Ultimately Romney did a lot better than I thought. They really taught him to talk really well, I think. He had a pretty compassionate, soft tone that I think probably went over well with people.

That said, wow, if the American people buy that man's bullshit snake oil, then wow... just wow.
 

Jadedx

Banned
If the race does narrow (and I'm not quite convinced yet), I think we're going to see a 2004-style re-election instead of a 1996-style election. Ohio and Wisconsin are on lockdown. New Hampshire looks quite strong. This gets Obama to 269EVs.

Just one more state from FL/VA/CO/IA/NC/NV is needed.

Thus, the ice stays in my veins. :)

FL is in the bag, romney admitted he plans to make medicare a voucher program.
 

Tim-E

Member
But GAF told me Obama will win the debates, it will be a knockout. Looks like it was the other way around.

Its a snap poll. Its basically the same as a fucking Internet poll; its statistically worthless and does nothing but provide garbage to fill 20 seconds of news coverage.
 
Romney will lead polls at this rate.

Obama needs to go in for the kill on these things when Ronney says all his shit and he isn't.

PANIC THIS DEBATE WITH NO BAD STUMBLES FOR EITHER CANDIDATE WILL DO WHAT NO OTHER DEBATE HAS EVER DONE AND SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE RACE


HOLY SHIIIIIIIIIIIIIT
 

Gotchaye

Member
I just don't buy that anybody already leaning Obama is going to flip on the basis of that. Romney was only persuasive if you think he's trustworthy.

The Solyndra attack was the only one that I thought really landed.
 

GhaleonEB

Member
Curious how much the visuals impacted impressions. I listened to a few segments on NPR on the way home, and thought Obama did fine. A few disjointed answers, but clear. Romney was his usual fast talking liar.

Then I get home and everyone is losing it. Go figure.
 
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