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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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T

Tamanon

Banned
Just think about how much easier Romney would have it if he focused on tax cuts for the middle class only. It's too late now, but that would've been lethal.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
He gets to filibust at rallies, and talk as much as he wants. He can't do that at a debate, which is why he struggles. Obama seems unwilling to filter his basic argument to 2-3 minute arguments. As Clinton has proved, it's possible to do that without dumbing yourself down
Click to expand...

Clinton talked for 2 hours
 
S

Snake

Member
The debate isn't going to change Obama's approval rating at all. Even if it went down hugely tomorrow, that would only be happening since it just shot up so high so fast and what goes up must come down.

But seriously, when has his gallup approval ever jumped like today's?
 
G

gcubed

Member
PhoenixDark said:
He gets to filibust at rallies, and talk as much as he wants. He can't do that at a debate, which is why he struggles. Obama seems unwilling to filter his basic argument to 2-3 minute arguments. As Clinton has proved, it's possible to do that without dumbing yourself down
Click to expand...

when you get off the cuff obama you get "you're likable enough" Obama. Being disinterested at a debate is infinitely better then personally insulting your opponent. One is status quo, the other will up your negatives.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
So now that the dust has settled, is Obama done?

I don't see how he comes back from this. Romney was Cartman, and Obama was Scott Tenorman last night.
 
A

Allard

Member
speculawyer said:
I wonder if there was a reluctance for Obama to be aggressive since that would then raise the 'angry black man' issue. If so, he needs to drop that and get aggressive.


And I have yet to read anyone make some complaint about Romney's tone . . . people are complaining about the content (flip-flops, lies, contradictions, etc.) but no complaint about his aggressive tone. So there can't be any "waaah, reverse discrimination bias" whining from the right.
Click to expand...

I actually complained about it last night with the people I was with, I didn't see it as aggressive, I thought Romney looked like a High School Bully who always wanted the attention and demanded it over authority. If Obama didn't make that one slight in the middle of the debate about time to finish an argument it would have positively been one-sided. Also about the time each got to talk, did anyone go back and re-tally the time spent? The CNN clock was clearly not accurate unless they went and fixed it as the debate went on, the clock kept going for Obama occasionally when Romney was talking and Lehrer was talking several times.
 
S

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Diablos sure is posting a lot in this thread.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
gcubed said:
when you get off the cuff obama you get "you're likable enough" Obama. Being disinterested at a debate is infinitely better then personally insulting your opponent. One is status quo, the other will up your negatives.
Click to expand...

I'm watching the rally bit with Obama joking about PBS. Last night when Romney talked about cutting PBS it struck me as the perfect opportunity to just say "I'm sorry, but I'd rather spend a small amount of the budget keeping Big Bird on air than giving you another tax cut." Or giving big oil another subsidy. The issue is that Obama is not quick on his feet, and you're right: instead he makes awkward jokes that sometimes border on insulting. Does anyone think Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan would let that type of nonsense fly without a quick retort? I don't see how that will change in the coming debates - it's not who Obama is. He's going to continue droning on

Last night the only off the cuff moment seemed to be when he said he liked Obamacare.
 
D

Drek

Member
RDreamer said:
Man, Obama better win this election. If today is any clue how it'd be after a Romney win then I want off this planet. I'm suddenly surrounded by tons of idiot super conservatives armed with teleprompter jokes.
Click to expand...

All the crying going on in far left circles is missing the fact that Obama actually won the election last night, during the debate.

Romney gave more fodder for medicare adds in Florida than the Obama team can get through before the election. Ohio is all but on ice at this point. He wins both Ohio and Florida and there is no path to victory for Romney.

This is what the far left is missing. If Obama had engaged in a tit for tat he might have technically "won" the debate but he also might have given the Romney campaign something to use in adverts, not to mention some concern over the "angry black man" label. Instead he left room for Romney to talk, which Mitt then filled with vacuous double speak.

Obama isn't looking to win the nation, he's looking to win the swing states. "Winning" the debate is less important than being able to frame Romney as anti-medicare in Florida and anti-balanced budget in Ohio. Romney handed him talking points and ad material for both on a silver platter last night.

The debate was the equivalent of rope a dope. Romney came out all fire and brimstone, talking himself into corners that the Obama campaign can now use. At the same time, the Romney campaign strategy for the debates is now exposed. Super aggressive pushing of falsehoods, damn likability, push a conservative mirage hard all night. Its not even a particularly good one, FYI, as likability is a huge Romney weakness and is key to Obama's current leads.
 
R

Red Blaster

Member
Puddles said:
So now that the dust has settled, is Obama done?

I don't see how he comes back from this. Romney was Cartman, and Obama was Scott Tenorman last night.
Click to expand...

Have you seen the latest Nate Silver map?

Iwe9X.png
 
B

Blergmeister

Member
Jackson50 said:
He performed abysmally in the first debate. And Reagan also underwhelmed against Mondale in the first debate. He lost, though. And there's room for improvement.
Click to expand...

More proof that Obama is the Democratic parties Reagan?

speculawyer said:
And I have yet to read anyone make some complaint about Romney's tone . . . people are complaining about the content (flip-flops, lies, contradictions, etc.) but no complaint about his aggressive tone. So there can't be any "waaah, reverse discrimination bias" whining from the right.
Click to expand...

I'm assuming those that would see "Angry Black Man" imagery if Obama became more aggressive in his tone have no problem with "White man yelling down black man" imagery.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Cloudy said:
Don't underestimate how the media narrative plays a role in these things. This past week, it's been all about how Romney was on his way to losing so I'm sure it subliminally affects some folks and increases Obama's approval. Now that we have a narrative switch, look for a swing the other way
Click to expand...

That's not sufficient to explain a 6 point bump in one day of a three-day rolling average. That implies over fifteen points difference between the September 30th sample and the October 3rd one.

Code: 
Sept 27 to Sept 30: +1
                          Oct 1 - Sept 27 delta: [b]+3 minimum[/b]
Sept 29 to  Oct 1: +3
                          Oct 2 - Sept 29 delta: [b]+6 minimum[/b]
Sept 30 to  Oct 2: +6
                          Oct 3 - Sept 30 delta: [b]+15 minimum[/b]
 Oct 1  to  Oct 3: +12

Does Gallup use its likely voter model for Presidential job approval beginning October 1st?
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
Drek said:
All the crying going on in far left circles is missing the fact that Obama actually won the election last night, during the debate.

Romney gave more fodder for medicare adds in Florida than the Obama team can get through before the election. Ohio is all but on ice at this point. He wins both Ohio and Florida and there is no path to victory for Romney.

This is what the far left is missing. If Obama had engaged in a tit for tat he might have technically "won" the debate but he also might have given the Romney campaign something to use in adverts, not to mention some concern over the "angry black man" label. Instead he left room for Romney to talk, which Mitt then filled with vacuous double speak.

Obama isn't looking to win the nation, he's looking to win the swing states. "Winning" the debate is less important than being able to frame Romney as anti-medicare in Florida and anti-balanced budget in Ohio. Romney handed him talking points and ad material for both on a silver platter last night.

The debate was the equivalent of rope a dope. Romney came out all fire and brimstone, talking himself into corners that the Obama campaign can now use. At the same time, the Romney campaign strategy for the debates is now exposed. Super aggressive pushing of falsehoods, damn likability, push a conservative mirage hard all night. Its not even a particularly good one, FYI, as likability is a huge Romney weakness and is key to Obama's current leads.
Click to expand...

I agree completely. I think the only pundits who picked up on this were Rachel Maddow and Al Sharpton. The rest like Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews just went apeshit.

Obama was weaving the rope that Romney was going to hang himself with.
 
A

Allard

Member
DragonSworne said:
The big bird disaster is going to have a longer lasting impact then anything from this debate because of the internet
Click to expand...

It was the only thing in the debate people could relate to lol. Numbers game and taxes, healthcare part of the debate, deficit reduction etc. Most of that goes over peoples heads and some people go to the debates to get a clear and concise message from the candidates on the route they want to take and how exactly affects them. I don't think either candidate was able to accomplish that but you bring up big bird and suddenly there is a reference point a lot of people can remember.
 
S

Snake

Member
To be clear, I feel that Obama lost the debate last night and lost an opportunity to put a permanent ceiling on Romney's support. PD's analysis, while meant to inflame, was for the most part spot on.

But I don't think this is remotely the gamechanger that Romney needs and Republicans are praying for. In fact, this morning's coverage has been a lot more tame than I'd expected. I was feeling horrible last night, for the first time in this election. I remember feeling like I did last night for about 40% of the 2008 election, which reminds me of how spoiled we've been by this race. We didn't even need to contend with a Romney convention bounce tightening the polls, for pete's sake! And now we might be approaching a moment when things tighten a bit [or not, who knows], but I remain confident that Obama's team is out-advertising, out-organizing, and out-campaigning the Romney team.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Europe freaking out and telling Obama to get off his ass.
Romney's strong debate showing puts Europe on edge

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - President Barack Obama's lackluster performance in the first U.S. election debate provoked uneasiness in European capitals on Thursday, where hopes are mostly, if unofficially, pinned on his securing a second term.

While a lot can change before the November 6 vote, and Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney will go head to head twice more before then, polling conducted immediately after the debate showed Romney came out overwhelmingly on top.

A flash poll by CNN showed 67 percent of viewers thought Romney had 'won', with just 25 percent for Obama. Intrade, an online prediction market, cut Obama's re-election prospects from 74 percent to 66 percent.

In Europe, where leaders and finance officials have worked closely with the Obama administration over the past 2-1/2 years trying to resolve the euro area debt crisis, there was particular consternation at Romney's singling out of deficit-ridden Spain as a poorly administered economy.

"Romney is making analogies that aren't based on reality," Foreign Affairs Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo told reporters after a meeting of his centre-right party.
Leading Spanish daily El Pais highlighted the fact that Spain was the only European country mentioned, and contrasted Romney's negative depiction of it with Obama's praise for Spain's renewable energy policies during the 2008 campaign.

"Spain has never been mentioned in a presidential debate as a symbol of failure," the left-leaning newspaper lamented. "What happened last night makes history. And not in a good way."

Political commentators in France and Germany registered surprise at Obama's underwhelming performance, saying the election could be much tighter as a result.

"Obama showed a lack of desire to be president, which could put him on shaky ground as a presidential candidate," said liberal German news magazine Der Spiegel.
"It's now clear that to get back into the White House the U.S. president needs running shoes, not flip-flops."

France's Le Monde appeared equally surprised by Obama's sub-par performance. "Where did the favorite go?" it asked on its front page, with a headline below saying: "Obama fails his first televised debate against an incisive Romney."

LEANING OBAMA'S WAY

In private, many EU diplomats have no qualms about saying they want Obama re-elected; it is no secret that many European countries, whether led by centre-left or centre-right governments, are more broadly aligned with the Democrats when it comes to social and tax policy, the environment and a range of foreign-affairs issues.
Click to expand...
http://news.yahoo.com/romneys-strong-debate-showing-puts-europe-edge-150035684.html

Let's get Europe to hate us again, that will help the USA, right?

Officerrob said:
It's time for a new avatar
Click to expand...

image.php


LOL!
 
E

Effect

Member
Loudninja said:
Obama Ad Attacks Romney’s Debate Performance: ‘How Could We Ever Trust Him?’
http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/obama-ad-attacks-romneys-debate-performance-how-could

Damn that was quick
Click to expand...

Makes you wonder if this was really the plan going into the debate. Or at the very least the plan B.

I'm looking forward to the Medicare ad that is sure to come.

Edit: Doubtful that he planned to lose it but the comeback could give that image but then again I could just be grasping.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Drek said:
All the crying going on in far left circles is missing the fact that Obama actually won the election last night, during the debate.

Romney gave more fodder for medicare adds in Florida than the Obama team can get through before the election. Ohio is all but on ice at this point. He wins both Ohio and Florida and there is no path to victory for Romney.

This is what the far left is missing. If Obama had engaged in a tit for tat he might have technically "won" the debate but he also might have given the Romney campaign something to use in adverts, not to mention some concern over the "angry black man" label. Instead he left room for Romney to talk, which Mitt then filled with vacuous double speak.

Obama isn't looking to win the nation, he's looking to win the swing states. "Winning" the debate is less important than being able to frame Romney as anti-medicare in Florida and anti-balanced budget in Ohio. Romney handed him talking points and ad material for both on a silver platter last night.

The debate was the equivalent of rope a dope. Romney came out all fire and brimstone, talking himself into corners that the Obama campaign can now use. At the same time, the Romney campaign strategy for the debates is now exposed. Super aggressive pushing of falsehoods, damn likability, push a conservative mirage hard all night. Its not even a particularly good one, FYI, as likability is a huge Romney weakness and is key to Obama's current leads.
Click to expand...

That admission of a voucher program got a big WTF from me he fell right into that. Thats gonna get a lot of plan in ads.

Also I really think Obama can run with this "what is his plan" attack as well.
 
K

kaching

"GAF's biggest wanker"
PhoenixDark said:
Watch the 92 or 96 debates. Clinton is perfectly capable of making 2 minute points. And when the debate moves from that to actual debate/discussion, he excels even more.
Click to expand...
Did those debates feature anyone as intellectually dishonest as Romney is? Honest question, no one comes to mind but I readily admit to being very fuzzy on this.

Obama made plenty of 2 minute points last night as well, in his normal, measured manner for debates.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Obama Camp’s Post-Debate Plan: Expose ‘Serial Evader’ Romney
President Obama’s top aides didn’t deny on Thursday that Mitt Romney had a strong first debate. But by taunting fact checkers with a vague set of newly centrist claims, they believe the governor has left himself open for a major counteroffensive this week.

Obama senior strategist David Axelrod characterized Romney’s debate strategy as “effective in the short term, vulnerable in the long term.”

“Governor Romney came to give a performance and he gave a good performance and we give him credit for that,” he told reporters in a conference call. “The problem with it was that none of it was rooted in fact.”
He highlighted three areas in particular where the campaign planned to aggressively highlight Romney’s debate claims and press for more specifics: health care for the sick, tax breaks for the rich, and regulations on Wall Street.
Click to expand...

He highlighted three areas in particular where the campaign planned to aggressively highlight Romney’s debate claims and press for more specifics: health care for the sick, tax breaks for the rich, and regulations on Wall Street.

Romney told the debate crowd, for example, that despite his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act, “pre-existing conditions are covered under my plan.” But his campaign immediately walked the statement back afterwards, with Romney strategist Eric Ferhnstrom clarifying to TPM that it would be up to states to pass laws guaranteeing insurance coverage.

Axelrod called the pre-existing conditions pledge “an assertion that was so audacious the Romney campaign had to send someone into the spin room after the debate to say ‘Well, he really can’t do that.”

As for taxes, Obama appeared to be caught off guard by Romney’s repeated insistence that he would not cut taxes for the wealthy, a statement that contradicts independent studies showing even the most progressive version of his proposals would slash taxes for the wealthy while raising taxes on the middle class. Either that, or explode the deficit.

“Much of [Romney’s performance] was rooted in deception, from his very first answer when he tried to disown his $5 trillion dollar tax program which would skew to the wealthy and for which he has no way to pay,” Axelrod said.

Finally, he dinged the “serial evader” Romney being unable to “name one regulation that he would keep” after repealing Wall Street reform despite the governor’s professed support at the debate for regulating the finance industry.

“I think what you’re going to see from the campaign … is our effort to make sure that every voter out there understands exactly what the positions are that Romney danced around last night,” OFA press secretary Ben LaBolt told reporters.
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...-plan-expose-serial-evader-romney.php?ref=fpa
 
A

Arde5643

Member
I'm still curious if Romney camp is ready to lose Florida at this point - despite totally going 180 on all of his plans in the campaign, he doubled down on the medicare voucher plan by indirectly stating that it's bad for the under 55.

That was really striking and probably one of the few things that anyone watching will be able to differentiate.
 
D

Drek

Member
Measley said:
I agree completely. I think the only pundits who picked up on this were Rachel Maddow and Al Sharpton. The rest like Ed Schultz and Chris Matthews just went apeshit.
Click to expand...

Its the bubble. Matthews and Schultz are the left wing version of Limbaugh and Hannity. They aren't intelligent, articulate, or self aware. They rant on the party's far left soap box. If the far left had a unifying theology like Christianity to keep them tied to the far left you would see the same kind of bile from either one of those two as what you see from Limbaugh and Hannity.

Maddow is an intelligent woman and while I disagree with some of her further left viewpoints she at least backs them up with logic. This grounding in logic keeps her from getting too wrapped up in the bubble and lets her see the bigger picture.

Here's the Obama strategy going forward:

1. Continue hard pushes for early voting in Ohio and Iowa with Michelle Obama and Joe Biden holding rallies that basically drive people to voting booths.

2. Roll out a new statewide "if you're over 55 stop watching, please" medicare ad campaign in Florida. Leverage the Obama campaign's reduced ad costs in the state over Super PACs and the campaign's greater funds than the Romney campaign to dominate the airwaves and drive home a message of Romney wanting vouchers and not being honest with seniors.

3. Obama stumps in the smaller EV swing states and hits Virginia whenever possible when he's back in D.C..

4. Economy continues a slow rally on better home numbers and holiday hiring.

5. Come the next debate he plans for Romney's obvious strategy to be super aggressive and starts working in more red meat one liners like 47%, personal tax rates, I got Bin Laden, etc.. He'll continue to let Romney monopolize the "control" of the debate because that is the best avenue to get Romney to trip over himself and fall into an obvious election ending error.
 
E

el retorno

Member
speculawyer said:
Europe freaking out and telling Obama to get off his ass.

http://news.yahoo.com/romneys-strong-debate-showing-puts-europe-edge-150035684.html

Let's get Europe to hate us again, that will help the USA, right?



image.php


LOL!
Click to expand...

The spanish press flipped out at that comment. Their self-esteem is already in the gutters and that was like a gut punch.

Also those are all left leaning papers. They're doing the same thing as Diablos and PD. Freaking out over nothing. Foreign analysis of the US political elections is horrible. When I was over in Spain I read ElPais daily, they have no real idea how we work as a country politically.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
el retorno de los sapos said:
Isn't this what Marshall said last night?
Click to expand...

This is what we all said last night. It's like Ryan post-RNC convention speech. He'll look okay in the short-run, but he opened himself up to a lot of long-term damage. I'm just glad the Obama campaign isn't wasting anytime getting that message out there and isn't relying on the media to do that fact-check work (that they should be doing).
 
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