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[Loudninja]

Hey, we're getting jobs numbers tomorrow, correct?

Yes.

 

[Basileus777]

Some more from Public Policy Polling:

In Wisconsin Obama/Romney 2 pts closer than it was on the first night of our last poll there

We do 4 day fields so no final numbers until Sunday but early indications that Romney may have gotten small, but hardly game changing bump

Obama will get a Big Bird bounce.

That sounds pretty dirty, I hope no one catches it on tape.

 

[Brinbe]

Hmm, so all Romney did was partially cut into the polling deficit created by the 47%-tape exposure. We all know things would tighten (And Romney did go that week without fucking up) so it's not surprising. But he won't ride this all the way until November, things (meaning the narrative/etc) will eventually swing back to Obama.

And wow, that's rough, Ami. Just glad you're okay.

 

[thatbox]

this has been a fun two days. Worst year for car accidents ever for me. I got in a car accident on the day I went to see Dark Knight Rises; and today I got in another when a deer leaped in front of my vehicle. Car flipped, is totaled, and one of my ears is, like, half gone. So this was fun!

God I can't wait til this year is over -_-

Jeez. Glad you're more or less in one piece, at least. Poligaffers are falling apart

 

[Kusagari]

Some more from Public Policy Polling:







That sounds pretty dirty, I hope no one catches it on tape.

Yep. Romney's getting his bounce but expectations of some drastic shift were hilarious.

 

[RDreamer]

Bah, got roped into a silly discussion with a someone I know on Facebook. She's doing one of those rants about how both sides are both the same:

Is sick of all this political idealism. Your candidate will not save you, or your country. He will not stop hatred or bigotry or religious intolerance. He'll be spending money that the country doesn't have on things that the country doesn't need. He won't do 99% of the things that he says he will. He won't bring us out of debt. He'll try to create equality for some groups by taking it away from others. He'll try to promote freedom of speech by attacking the speech of others. He's a hypocritical, money-hungry business man. He doesn't care about the poor, because he has never been poor a day in his life (and also because he is funded by rich people...). He won't make this country a more tolerant place, because to be "tolerant" of one belief generally causes one to be "intolerant" of disagreeing beliefs. Plus, so many of you are SO ANGRY at the "other side" that you can't even listen, or comprehend the idea that BOTH sides have valid argument. If they didn't, everyone would just AGREE WITH YOU! THIS GOES FOR BOTH BOTH SIDES! Grow up. The world sucks, and it will continue to suck. As long as everyone remains so freaking hell-bent on being right and so arrogant to think that they "know better", things will never get any better. Stop hating the people that disagree with you. Stop seeing THE OTHER SIDE as the enemy that has to be crushed, because chances are, you are JUST as much of a douchebag in your own way. So if you don't have anything nice to say, just shut your stupid mouth and vote.

I just piped in about Obama clearly not being a businessman, getting a lot of support from small donors, and actually being poor in his life. She's still going hard on the both sides suck thing. She says she used to care a lot, but she empathizes with issues on both sides, and now just hates it all. I had pointed out the repeal of don't ask don't tell, support for gay marriage, and the passage of the lilly ledbetter fair pay act. She is now doing one of those, but how do you KNOW your side is right? So many people see that as going backwards!

How do good people think this way? I don't get it. How can you really get it in your head that either side could totally be right about anything and these are all just beliefs so who knows! Maybe gays don't deserve rights, I dunno! ugh...

After the debate I got a lot of people posting the whole both sides suck thing and politics suck. Really depressing hearing people say that...

 

[Oblivion]

Ma boy Steve Benen as usual has the correct summary of Romney's "win":

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/10/04/14219336-the-triumph-of-style-over-substance?lite

 

[GhaleonEB]

this has been a fun two days. Worst year for car accidents ever for me. I got in a car accident on the day I went to see Dark Knight Rises; and today I got in another when a deer leaped in front of my vehicle. Car flipped, is totaled, and one of my ears is, like, half gone. So this was fun!

God I can't wait til this year is over -_-

Wowza. Very glad you came out (relatively) OK.

 

[Zabka]

How do good people think this way? I don't get it. How can you really get it in your head that either side could totally be right about anything and these are all just beliefs so who knows! Maybe gays don't deserve rights, I dunno! ugh...

After the debate I got a lot of people posting the whole both sides suck thing and politics suck. Really depressing hearing people say that...

Makes them feel smart and above it all. In my opinion.

 

[Effect]

this has been a fun two days. Worst year for car accidents ever for me. I got in a car accident on the day I went to see Dark Knight Rises; and today I got in another when a deer leaped in front of my vehicle. Car flipped, is totaled, and one of my ears is, like, half gone. So this was fun!

God I can't wait til this year is over -_-

Damn Glad you're alive and okay for the most part.

 

[RDreamer]

Makes them feel smart and above it all. In my opinion.

Honestly I think there are two types that do this, though. There are the ones that want to feel smart and above it all, yes. This person, though, I think was a second type. I think they're the type that really honestly can't decide and throw up their hands and get frustrated at it all and then go down that avenue.

 

[Chumly]

There is nothing worse than the person that says both sides are evil and they are the "independent" and are not going to vote for either since they magically see all this.

 

[Black Mamba]

"When I got onto the stage, I met this very spirited fellow who claimed to be Mitt Romney," he told cheering supporters here. "But it couldn't have been Mitt Romney, because the real Mitt Romney has been running around the country for the last year promising $5 trillion in tax cuts that favor the wealthy."

"The fellow onstage last night said he didn't know anything about that," Obama said. The president then gave the same treatment to Romney on education and other issues—and hit back at one of Romney's debate zingers, "I maybe need to get a new accountant," uttered in a spat about outsourcing and whether companies can take a tax deduction for shipping jobs overseas.

"We know for sure it was not the real Mitt Romney because he seems to be doing just fine with his current accountant," Obama said.

...

"I just want to make sure I got this straight. He'll get rid of regulations on Wall Street, but he's going to crack down on Sesame Street," Obama said. "Thank goodness somebody is finally cracking down on Big Bird. Who knew that he was responsible for all these deficits? Elmo has got to watch out."

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...tting-tough-big-bird-165202158--election.html

Oh Obama, why couldn't you do some of this last night. The last remark would have been gold.

 

[RDreamer]

You know, if Obama had thought up the line "He'll get rid of regulations on Wall Street, but he's going to crack down on Sesame Street?" during the debate, I think it would have hit really hard.

Edit: Boo Black Mamba!

 

[speculawyer]

Bah, got roped into a silly discussion with a someone I know on Facebook. She's doing one of those rants about how both sides are both the same:

After the debate I got a lot of people posting the whole both sides suck thing and politics suck. Really depressing hearing people say that...

Is sick of all this political idealism. Your candidate will not save you, or your country. He will not stop hatred or bigotry or religious intolerance.

Yeah, fuck that shit.

Obama removed don't ask, don't tell. That alone was worth him winning 2000. That provided oppressed people with dignity and equality. That would not have happened with John McCain.


The economy . . . who the fuck knows? The economists clearly don't have their shit together. You ask 2 economists a question and you'll 5 different answers. Raise this tax, lower that tax, etc. Maybe Obama's ideas are better (I think they are) but maybe Mitt's ideas are better.

But voting for Romney is not going advance the ball towards gays getting the right to marry. Obama can't change the law but he can certainly help change the atmosphere and people's thinking . . . and nominate supreme court justices.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

62.7 million people watched yesterday's debate it seems. That's a pretty big number.

Polling will be really interesting to see in next week.

 

[Plinko]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/...tting-tough-big-bird-165202158--election.html

Oh Obama, why couldn't you do some of this last night. The last remark would have been gold.

Because he had to have someone write it for him.

 

[Half and half]

Man, if Obama delivered the exact same debate responses in his speech voice no one would say he lost.

 

[codhand]

Nate Silver article highlighting the electoral map I posted yesterday in response to PDs
VA FL BS

ColbertICalledIt.gif

271

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Nate Silver article highlighting the electoral map I posted yesterday in response to PDs
VA FL BS

ColbertICalledIt.gif

271

For what states does this 271 assume that Obama's won that most outlets won't claim he's won yet? And how much is Obama up by there?

 

[Aaron Strife]

One point in virginia?

Boing!

 

[pigeon]

For what states does this 271 assume that Obama's won that most outlets won't claim he's won yet? And how much is Obama up by there?

This gives Obama only states in which he's up by 4.9 points. For reference, the largest swing between the day before the first debate and the election in the history of debates was 3.5 points.

 

[codhand]

For what states does this 271 assume that Obama's won that most outlets won't claim he's won yet? And how much is Obama up by there?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/27/mitt-romney-ohio-ground-game_n_1921455.html#slide=1492637

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio_Senate_Bill_5_Voter_Referendum,_Issue_2_(2011)

Romney's let Detroit go bankrupt ideology is costing him the race. Couldn't have written a better ending.

 

[Aaron Strife]

This gives Obama only states in which he's up by 4.9 points. For reference, the largest swing between the day before the first debate and the election in the history of debates was 3.5 points.

The three tossup states specifically in that map are WI, OH, NV.

 

[DataStream]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Nov 6 at its highest point yet.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

For what states does this 271 assume that Obama's won that most outlets won't claim he's won yet? And how much is Obama up by there?

Nevada and New Hampshire, two states he has lead in nearly every poll. RCP average has Obama up 6 in NH and 5.2 in NV, not exactly toss-up numbers. Some places have shifted Wisconsin and Ohio to 'Lean Obama' because those states are far from toss-up status at this point.

 

[Black Mamba]

Anyone check out the crosstabs no the Ipsos pre vs post debate?

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12047

This is terrible for Romney. Check out Independents

Healthcare: Obama +3, Romney 0
US Economy: Obama + 7, Romney -7
Medicare: Obama +2, Romney -3
Jobs & employment: Obama +9, Romney -3
Deficit: Obama +1, Romney +4

I ignored the questions not really touched on like immigration and there was little movement there.

Romney did not win voters over.


Also, lol @ this:

 

[Mgoblue201]

The bounce will probably be modest, but in order to sustain that momentum, you would have to believe that Romney has any capacity to win the next debates in a similar manner and then run an extraordinary campaign until election night. This is improbable, to say the least, because the Romney campaign is in tatters and he won't be able to rely upon the same tactics for the final two debates. Also, I think that the effect of the first debate will be muted over time. Obama made no serious mistakes, and there were a few things Romney said that could hurt him, especially if a narrative emerges about how Romney is vague or misrepresents the facts.

 

[Black Mamba]

http://www.firebigbird.com/

 

[Fragamemnon]

Mittens with the huge takeback. It's clear that the 47% comment is hurting him so bad that his campaign feels they need to resurrect the comment and its contraversy in order to hopefully put it to rest. This is pretty dumb and Mittens has a terrible campaign staff.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-on-47-percent-i-said-something-thats

"Well, clearly in a campaign with hundreds if not thousands of question and answer sessions, now and then you're going to say something that doesn't come out right. In this case I said something that's just completely wrong. And I absolutely believe however that my life has shown that I care about the 100 percent and that has been demonstarted throughout my life. This whole campaign is about the 100 percent. When I become president it'll be about helping the 100 percent."

They should have just continued on and ignored it , writing it off as spin and the left's use of the comment as a distortion of what Mitt really meant. Not sure what's going on in their campaign numbers, he must be getting gored in the rust belt over these comments for this to come back around.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Unbelievable, press is just handling Romney's debate performance as his "pivot" to the center that they expected all this time. Oh, now he is running in a general election, so he can lie about his policies because they sound more moderate.

 

[el retorno]

Mittens with the huge takeback. It's clear that the 47% comment is hurting him so bad that his campaign feels they need to resurrect the comment and its contraversy in order to hopefully put it to rest. This is pretty dumb and Mittens has a terrible campaign staff.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-on-47-percent-i-said-something-thats



They should have just continued on and ignored it , writing it off as spin and the left's use of the comment as a distortion of what Mitt really meant. Not sure what's going on in their campaign numbers, he must be getting gored in the rust belt over these comments for this to come back around.

Just about to post that. I swear to god he better not get away with this shit. He stood by the comment just a month ago.

 

[Half and half]

Mittens with the huge takeback. It's clear that the 47% comment is hurting him so bad that his campaign feels they need to resurrect the comment and its contraversy in order to hopefully put it to rest. This is pretty dumb and Mittens has a terrible campaign staff.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-on-47-percent-i-said-something-thats



They should have just continued on and ignored it , writing it off as spin and the left's use of the comment as a distortion of what Mitt really meant. Not sure what's going on in their campaign numbers, he must be getting gored in the rust belt over these comments for this to come back around.

Yep. As the author noted, Romney had a precanned response that he was probably ready to deliver in front of all the people watching the debate. I think it was wise Obama left that alone. Romney doesn't get to ask for forgiveness.

 

[Tamanon]

Jon's Camera 3 speech tonight, good stuff.

 

[el retorno]

Yep. As the author noted, Romney had a precanned response that he was probably ready to deliver in front of all the people watching the debate. I think it was wise Obama left that alone. Romney doesn't get to ask for forgiveness.

This is true. Its really hard to call someone out for lying on the debate stage but we've now got a week or two of Obama's narrative being "who is the real mitt?" and that will get thrown in his face.

When I become president it'll be about helping the 100 percent."

I hope there's tape of him saying this. You can run the "i don't care about the very poor and the very rich", the 47% video and now this and just ask who is the real mitt?

 

[Black Republican]

i wonder if the missing BLs numbers they found last week will cause the unemployment rate to drop?
7.9% maybe?

 

[Mgoblue201]

Yep. As the author noted, Romney had a precanned response that he was probably ready to deliver in front of all the people watching the debate. I think it was wise Obama left that alone. Romney doesn't get to ask for forgiveness.

Yeah, that's one reason why I thought Obama should've stayed away from it. Don't give Romney a chance to defend himself in front of 62 million people. There is likely little to gain from it that hasn't already been gained from the initial controversy.

 

[Black Mamba]

WTF, Romney does not get to say what he said was wrong 2 weeks after the fact and after he doubled down on it.

What horseshit is this? From this perspective, I'm glad he didn't get to use that last night. But WTF, a decent media would call this bullshit out.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Just about to post that. I swear to god he better not get away with this shit. He stood by the comment just a month ago.

I honestly don't think it matters if he says this in the venue (on Hannity) where he did-it just looks like desperate damage control. This response needed to come out in the debates to actually matter, where Mitt could have "scored" points in the debate and gotten his apology off at the same time.

Obama's team, in retrospect, was super-smart to stay away from this. The comment is a good stick for beating a dead horse with, but not the kind of verbal rapier that goes well in a debate.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

i wonder if the missing BLs numbers they found last week will cause the unemployment rate to drop?
7.9% maybe?

From what was posted those numbers won't be added to the total until the annual revision in Jan 2013.

 

[el retorno]

I honestly don't think it matters if he says this in the venue (on Hannity) where he did-it just looks like desperate damage control. This response needed to come out in the debates to actually matter, where Mitt could have "scored" points in the debate and gotten his apology off at the same time.

Obama's team, in retrospect, was super-smart to stay away from this. The comment is a good stick for beating a dead horse with, but not the kind of verbal rapier that goes well in a debate.

Yea this comment has actually made me feel really good about where Obama is in this race. He's now got a nice attack at romney.

 

[Clevinger]

i wonder if the missing BLs numbers they found last week will cause the unemployment rate to drop?
7.9% maybe?

Don't those numbers not get counted until January or something?

 

[pigeon]

Anyone check out the crosstabs no the Ipsos pre vs post debate?

http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12047

This is terrible for Romney. Check out Independents

Healthcare: Obama +3, Romney 0
US Economy: Obama + 7, Romney -7
Medicare: Obama +2, Romney -3
Jobs & employment: Obama +9, Romney -3
Deficit: Obama +1, Romney +4

I ignored the questions not really touched on like immigration and there was little movement there.

Romney did not win voters over.

One key thing to remember here is that this sample had proportionately less Democrats and more Independents -- so it's quite possible some of those Independents were Democrats before the debate and now they're too embarrassed to admit it. But these are still not at all good numbers for Romney.

 

[Black Republican]

From what was posted those numbers won't be added to the total until the annual revision in Jan 2013.

ah oh well nevermind

 

[Black Mamba]

WASHINGTON—The Obama campaign set a new monthly fundraising record for the 2012 election cycle, taking in more than $150 million in September as supporters rallied behind the president in the final phase of the election, according to people familiar with the totals.

Wow.

 

[metalslimer]

Holy shit at the lead on the economy.

 

[codhand]

Mitt Romney: '47 Percent' Comments Were 'Just Completely Wrong'

FISHERSVILLE, Va. -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has described his disparaging remarks about the 47 percent of Americans who don't pay federal income taxes as "not elegantly stated." Now he's calling them "just completely wrong."

Romney had contended that nearly half of Americans consider themselves "victims" and are dependent on government.

In an interview Thursday night with Fox News, Romney was asked what he would have said had the "47 percent" comments come up during his debate the night before with President Barack Obama.

Romney responded that sometimes in campaigning something doesn't come out right and that, quote, "In this case, I said something that's just completely wrong."

The "47 percent" comments came to light in mid-September after the release of a secretly recorded video from a May fundraiser.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/04/mitt-romney-47-percent_n_1941423.html

 

[Brinbe]

Nate Silver article highlighting the electoral map I posted yesterday in response to PDs
VA FL BS

ColbertICalledIt.gif

271

Yeah, I read that and just laughed. Glad to see Nate's catching up... I posted this two weeks ago. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=42386046&postcount=10907

Yep, and he's p. close to establishing a guaranteed path to victory as it is. Courtesy NBC News

*** Obama’s battleground edge grows: In NBC's first battleground map since the conventions and a slew of new state polling, President Obama has expanded his electoral-vote lead over Mitt Romney -- but only slightly. There are now 243 electoral votes in Obama’s column and 191 in Romney’s, with 104 in the Toss-up category; 270 are needed to win the presidency. Last month, before the conventions, the president was ahead 237-191. The one change: We've moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean Obama based on our new NBC/WSJ/Marist polls and our conversations with the campaigns. Perhaps in no other state outside of Ohio and Virginia has Obama done more physical campaigning than in Iowa, and it appears to have paid off. Since April, he’s made seven visits and held 15 different events in the state, compared with Romney’s seven visits but just seven events. Re-read the comparison again -- this is a regular discrepancy between the Obama and Romney campaigns. The president packs in a lot more events, on average, when he visits a battleground state than Romney does.
Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
Lean Dem: IA, ME (1 EV) MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR, PA (79)
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NH, NC, OH, VA, WI (104)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IN, MO, NE (I EV) (49)
Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, LA, MS, MT, ND, SC, SD, TX (79)
Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (63)

If they've really secured Iowa, that p. much closes off the route to 270 for Romney. Based on other recent polling the bolded states there look to be secure for the Dems as it is, so at a minimum we're looking at

so gg Romney. Smart of them to concentrate heavily in Iowa, but that's why they're a top-notch campaign team.

 

[codhand]

http://elections.firedoglake.com/2012/10/04/ct-sen-republican-linda-mcmahon-takes-a-one-point-lead/

Connecticut Senate: Republican Linda McMahon Takes a One Point Lead

Nooooooooo

 

[bananas]