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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
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PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
At least EZ can appreciate a good joke.
cartoon_soldier
Member
I have always maintained that Obama is a slight favorite or race is deadlocked. No I don't feel as confident as some of the other folks here.
I loved Obama campaign coming out of the woodwork with the Bain attack, loved Reid's attack on Romney taxes, thought Obama campaign should have come out earlier with Medicare attacks and believe the welfare ad is working better for Romney than folks at GAF think even though it is a lie. I agreed that the RNC convention was failure for Romney.
i agree that its outrageous that tonights game will be at all interesting. What a lame opener.
Yeah. Wrong horse, Dean.
YOU BETTER VOTE FOR MITT
I'M NOT EVEN KIDDING
WE GIVE A LOT OF MONEY TO CHARITY
It is definitely possible that he's right and that there is, in fact, enough time to get the early voting hours done after the appeals court rules -- especially since the appeals court might well hurry it up when they see this. Judges don't tend to like it when you disrespect other judges. It's also possible that they will threaten him with contempt and he will go ahead and cave. I more or less expect one of these to happen.
I definitely don't think that he will be able to not have early voting hours even after a federal judge ordered him to. SOMETHING will happen. I mean, theoretically, they could call out the National Guard and the US Marshals to FORCE early voting -- it's been known to happen, obviously. But we're getting into constitutional crisis territory at that point.
Gotta love how the GOP are urging women and younger people to vote for Mittens, but aren't giving us a good reason for why to do it.
It's like telling someone to put their hand on a fire. Sure, someone who doesn't know any better might do it and ask why, but in the end you're only doing something against your best interests.
CharlieDigital
Banned
HAHA OMFG
I know what she was thinking in her head and she had to pause to get it out in a non-offensive way on TV.
She's dumb, glad she's talking
Jesus, who signs this lady's checks? She's awful.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I'll give you the same question I give to everyone that lacks confidence in the obvious: how exactly does Romney win? Have fun:
http://www.270towin.com/
You might look here for reference:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
That clip was basically Thanksgiving dinner, CNN style. Three people trying to politely discuss politics with a fourth person without pointing out that that fourth person is incoherently racist.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
So that tea bagger lady on CNN is pretty offensive, eh? I have an idea, GOP: MORE TEA PARTY.
Hobbestetrician
Member
Very few people took up this challenge in that "Post if you think Romney will win" thread.
CharlieDigital
Banned
I have a very hard time calling it right now as Silver said: there's still a lot of time between now and November and there is no reason to feel overly confident given that further meltdowns in Europe or rising gas prices or bad jobs reports could put it all in jeopardy.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
That's because it's hard and forces them to confront their cognitive dissonance. PD basically said, "well, he's got a shot in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Colorado, Iowa, and maybe one other."
And this is all fine, but that's now how we play the game -- "global economic catastrophe" will always be a wildcard. We're looking at the game board as we now know it, with acceptable risk built in. Doesn't bother me if people want to say, "barring unexpected events," but that's not an excuse to ignore reality.
Ohio, Iowa, Florida. I think that basically gets it done doesn't it? Is it really that difficult to pretend Romney has a shot there?
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=wcB
Not pictured: the dissolution of the European Union.
I'm not saying it's likely -- the EU obviously really wants to not dissolve, and knowing that if they do they will be returning to Bushmerica is only going to increase that desire -- but shit does happen. I'm not too sanguine about the new central bank proposal.
How about PA? Because the numbers in Ohio are about as close as the numbers in PA... the Ohio numbers are even more in Obama's favor then PA if you add in the constitution party candidate.
edit... i thought there was a recent poll after the convention that showed a pretty big lead in Ohio, was my state off?
edit2... my state was off, that was VA. Continue on
You are assuming that Virginia flips, too.
^I'm not assuming anything, I didn't play with the map. I was asking if that would get it done. Notice the question marks.
No idea, a business owner in Ohio I was talking to today told me there was some poll out this week that showed Romney winning there by 3 or so but I had never heard of it. I haven't bothered to look it up.
No idea, a business owner in Ohio I was talking to today told me there was some poll out this week that showed Romney winning there by 3 or so but I had never heard of it. I haven't bothered to look it up.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
holy crap this made me laugh, thanks man
CharlieDigital
Banned
It doesn't.
i was wrong, it was VA
If Romney won those three states and Obama won all of the other ones he's currently leading in Obama would still win.
Officerrob
Banned
He would need Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia.
CharlieDigital
Banned
That only gives him 257, no?
You was a "general" you. The path that would get Romney the win is Ohio, Iowa, Florida, AND Virginia if Obama takes the other "toss-ups" (NV, CO, etc).
That doesn't seem impossible. They are all withing the margin of error on most polls aren't they? I don't see why that would be such a difficult argument to defend.
Manmademan
Member
Romney is behind by ludicrous margins in Ohio, and coming out against the GM bailout makes it extremely unlikely he flips it.
My original post was re: VA, the latest poll isn't close
Obama isn't going to lose Ohio and it's looking very unlikely that he loses Virginia.
It's quite the task to flip those states. The more states a candidate needs to flip, the exponentially harder it becomes.
Officerrob
Banned
Well, I'm one of those who thinks North Carolina is going to go Romney, so I just gave that to him. Just add North Carolina to the list as well
I agree, but if you wanted to believe there is no reason you couldn't.
Also, ludicrous margins?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls
Isn't the Columbus poll the one we were discussing last week that Silver called fine?
Obvioiusly and I don't think he will, but the discussion isn't a terribly difficult one to have.
People probably just didn't feel like talking to a goof like Panther is really my point.
Right, and even taking that into account, look at what Silver's model says about Ohio:
Also, convention bounce.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Nate Silver is projecting on how it will be in November, I am talking about how I see things right now. Polls are all over the place in some states, the latest OH poll has Romney leading by 3. Even Silver's projected vote share has a decent MOE, so they still count as swing states.
We will have a better idea 2 weeks after DNC Convention is done.
Gravis marketing is treated as a heavy GOP poll, Silver has it as a +4 GOP lean
still assuming VA, which, post convention was a +5 (+8 with 3rd party)... anyway, sure, you can believe it. But i can also believe in martians from venus
Manmademan
Member
Ohio has been anywhere from +3 Obama to +9 Obama all year, with only a few posters with a noted republican lean (Rasmussen, Gravis) saying otherwise.
Going deeper, Romney's likeability within the state is horrendous, and not getting better. Outside of a democratic scandal it's not in play.
We'll just ignore the poll that doesn't fit your two poles I guess.
That has a 0% possibility. At least Silver is giving Romney 30%. I'd put Martians from Mars at roughly 32%.
That has a 0% possibility. At least Silver is giving Romney 30%. I'd put Martians from Mars at roughly 32%.
true, i went a little too strong on that one
what about PBS? I was at least 1!
cartoon_soldier
Member
And PPP is +3.1, or at least was.
Although, I don't know here to find his up to date pollster ratings, anybody?
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
So basically everyone's reply to "you can't use a potential world catastrophe as an excuse to not defend your doubt" was to reply with potential world catastrophes? Ok.
CharlieDigital
Banned
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama probably won't get a convention bounce of any significance. The amount of undecided voters is quite low this year. He'll get perhaps a similar bump as Romney's: 3%, and the numbers will even out shortly afterward or move in Romney's direction depending on the economy (friday jobs report is this friday).
Obama is barely leading in Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. This is far from over, and a major event can still throw this race completely off course - whether it's Europe or something else.
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