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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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P

pigeon

Banned
PantherLotus said:
So basically everyone's reply to "you can't use a potential world catastrophe as an excuse to not defend your doubt" was to reply with potential world catastrophes? Ok.
Click to expand...

This is unfair, though. We're not talking about an alien attack, or Great Britain bombing Israel, or something equally ridiculous -- we're talking about things like the EU that have literally almost happened several times this year already. Yes, I agree that if nothing changes anywhere then Obama will almost certainly win, but things change all the time. The biggest danger to Obama is an economic crisis in the next two months, and that's still very much possible -- in fact, a portion of Nate's 30% is almost certainly pricing the chance of that in. (Which is partly why Intrade is still fifteen percent behind, because they're less confident about the Euro -- that and they're just more driven by partisanship.)
 
G

gcubed

Member
pigeon said:
This is unfair, though. We're not talking about an alien attack, or Great Britain bombing Israel, or something equally ridiculous -- we're talking about things like the EU that have literally almost happened several times this year already. Yes, I agree that if nothing changes anywhere then Obama will almost certainly win, but things change all the time. The biggest danger to Obama is an economic crisis in the next two months, and that's still very much possible -- in fact, a portion of Nate's 30% is almost certainly pricing the chance of that in. (Which is partly why Intrade is still fifteen percent behind, because they're less confident about the Euro -- that and they're just more driven by partisanship.)
Click to expand...

EU has an almost 0% chance of happening in the next year let alone 2 months
 
P

pigeon

Banned
gcubed said:
EU has an almost 0% chance of happening in the next year let alone 2 months
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19493374

What makes you so confident? Serious question. I don't know nearly as much about Europe, but most of the things I read are dismal. Intrade still has a 30% chance that somebody will leave the EU by December.

edit: to clarify, most of the things I read about the Eurozone crisis are dismal, not just the stuff I read about Europe in general.
 
G

gcubed

Member
Someone leaving the euro would be disastrous to Germany. Germany realized this, 2 weeks ago central banks have talked about limitless bond buys if needed. Nothing will happen in 2 months.

that article even says earliest first half of next year.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
Forgot that the Romney folk were in town today. All that "wake up!" stuff from Ann Romney happened just up the street from me. I can imagine around here, it went over really well, as Dems don't even run for office and the GOP primaries essentially serve as the general election.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
eznark said:
3 points! Ludicrous lead!
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Most of the swing states--especially Ohio--that Romney needs to flip aren't really coin tosses at the moment, they've consistently been slim to moderate Obama leads. They're obviously not out of reach (hence "lean" Obama), and maybe one close state could flip for no particular reason, but flipping all or most of them would require visible national movement toward Romney. And at this point national movement toward Romney probably requires something external happening.

It's kind of like being three games out of first but having four or five teams in front of you. Yeah you're "in it" but the chips really have to fall in line.

Florida is truly a coin toss right now, though.

edit: apologies for the mixed metaphor :|
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Since the topic of the EU has come-up, it's tinfoil hat time:
I've wondered in the back of my mind if leaders of the EU have discussed the upcoming election over here in the U.S., deciding that they don't want to do anything too harsh that would endanger Obama's re-election.

We all see the international reaction when the Dems take the White House: it's almost as though the rest of the world breathes a collective sigh of relief. So this kind of behind-the-scenes discussion among leaders almost seems plausible to me.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Clevinger said:
So remember how we were all happy that early voting hours in Ohio would be restored because of a court order? Well, Ohio’s Secretary of State, Jon Husted, is refusing to comply.

He's arguing that because it's being appealed by GOP shitheels, there's no reason to change anything until that appeal is ruled on... whenever it is.
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Wow, why is no one in here responding to this? Pretty serious shit, a lot more than who the future of the party is for 2016. Ohio is crucial. 2016 doesn't mean shit if Dems can't win today.

I hate the fucking GOP.
 
M

Marvie_3

Banned
Diablos said:
Wow, why is no one in here responding to this? Pretty serious shit, a lot more than who the future of the party is for 2016. Ohio is crucial. 2016 doesn't mean shit if Dems can't win today.

I hate the fucking GOP.
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Hooray for contempt of court! I hope they make an example of this moron.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Yeah, I watched that live on Monday morning and commented on it here. Shit was stunningly hilarious, as the rest of that panel wasn't hearing that unintelligible BS.
 
L

LilZippa

Member
Maybe I missed any conversation about it but I saw a pac ad using a Canadian national talking about having to flee to America to get her brain tumor taken out. I can't find anything on it but these to things.

This and This
 
S

speculawyer

Member
HylianTom said:
Since the topic of the EU has come-up, it's tinfoil hat time:
I've wondered in the back of my mind if leaders of the EU have discussed the upcoming election over here in the U.S., deciding that they don't want to do anything too harsh that would endanger Obama's re-election.

We all see the international reaction when the Dems take the White House: it's almost as though the rest of the world breathes a collective sigh of relief. So this kind of behind-the-scenes discussion among leaders almost seems plausible to me.
Click to expand...
I could see this being somewhat true. Nothing official, just kind of an unspoken agreement to try not to screw it up for Obama.
 
M

MThanded

I Was There! Official L Receiver 2/12/2016
Dems to reinstate language on Jerusalem
NBC News has learned that the Democratic Party will reinstate the language recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Republicans -- including the Romney campaign -- criticized President Obama and the Democrats after it was discovered this language had been omitted in the Democratic Party's platform

This will all be changed on the floor today, NBC has learned, and it will probably mean just simply reinstating the 2008 language.
Click to expand...

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...te-language-on-jerusalem#.UEe8VZ1mLNM.twitter
 
7

786110

Member
http://courantblogs.com/capitol-watch/boston-calling-labriola-set-to-meet-with-romney-camp-thursday/

Boston Calling: Labriola Set To Meet with Romney Camp Thursday
By Daniela Altimari On September 5, 2012 · Leave a Comment

State Republican party Chairman Jerry Labriola has long maintained that Connecticut could be a battleground state this fall. On Thursday, he’ll have the chance to make his case to Romney campaign officials.

Labriola will meet with the Romney folks at an undisclosed location in Hartford, he said. He will make a pitch that Connecticut, where a recent Quinnipiac University poll shows President Obama leading by just 7 percentage points, could be in play.

“They need to make a strategic decision” about whether Connecticut is worth an investment of resources, Labriola said.

He maintains it is. The erosion of Obama support in Connecticut came with “no resources, no effort, no advertising” on the part of Republicans, Labriola said. “That sets the table for my case: What if you actually made an investment?”

Connecticut is the only state, aside from hotly contested New Hampshire, that Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has any hopes of winning. A modest investment of resources in the nutmeg state could reap big rewards for the GOP, Labriola said.
Click to expand...

I wonder if this is part of Linda's Plan
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Connecticut is the only state, aside from hotly contested New Hampshire, that Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, has any hopes of winning.
Click to expand...

Yeah, they're gonna want to revise that one.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
speculawyer said:
I could see this being somewhat true. Nothing official, just kind of an unspoken agreement to try not to screw it up for Obama.
Click to expand...

World economy needs stability. Simple as that. Nobody benefits from an unpredictable US economy. Not China, not Russia, certainly not Europe.

Romney's economic plan is total nonsense, so even if they for some assinine reason wanted Romney geopol, they would not want the looming cloud of nonsensical doubt he'd bring. Of course the congressional repubs will do the best to bring that heat with the fiscal cliff anyway.
 
G

Guevara

Member
So now Ryan is lying about mountain climbing?
My mailbox has been blowing up with speculation on why Paul Ryan would have invented such an impressive "personal best" time for the marathon, and whether the invention will matter. For now I am going to leave it to others, with some highlighted links below.*

A crucial "will it matter?" factor is whether this proves to be one embarrassing but isolated glitch, or whether the new scrutiny it provokes will turn up other, similar problems. I have argued that on big questions of public policy, Ryan showed impressive sangfroid in standing before a national audience at the convention saying things he knew would be easy to attack. But I've known of no other indications of personal whoppers like the marathon.

Here's the first exception. Ryan has told his hometown paper that he has climbed "close to 40" of the famous "Fourteeners" in Colorado -- the 54 peaks more than 14,000 feet high. In fairness, he made this claim a few years ago, before he knew he would be under the scrutiny he is now.
Click to expand...
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/09/paul-ryan-mountaineer/261904/
And the response:
OFFICIAL UPDATE. At 5:38pm I received this note from Brandon Buck, of the Romney Campaign:
Hey James - caught your entertaining piece. Unfortunately, you've got some bad info in there. We're not sure where this started, but he's not said 40 different peaks, its nearly 40 climbs - with a number of peaks climbed more than once. He's been doing them for more than 20 years. The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article from '09 doesn't say 40 separate summits, but instead "He is fairly careful about what he eats, performs an intense cross-training routine known as P90X most mornings, and has made close to 40 climbs of Colorado's "Fourteeners" (14,000-foot peaks)."
Click to expand...
 
K

Kosmo

Banned
MThanded said:
Dems to reinstate language on Jerusalem


http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...te-language-on-jerusalem#.UEe8VZ1mLNM.twitter
Click to expand...

And the "God" language - so much for all that bluster from Durbin yesterday saying it didn't matter and accusing Baier of "knowing what he was trying to do" by questioning Durbin on it.

I am also glad to see MSNBC change their politics coverage slogan to "Lean Forward" - at least that aren't even trying to claim they provide objective analysis anymore.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Obama probably won't get a convention bounce of any significance. The amount of undecided voters is quite low this year. He'll get perhaps a similar bump as Romney's: 3%, and the numbers will even out shortly afterward or move in Romney's direction depending on the economy (friday jobs report is this friday).

Obama is barely leading in Ohio, Iowa, and Florida. This is far from over, and a major event can still throw this race completely off course - whether it's Europe or something else.
Click to expand...
9 points in Ohio is barely?
 
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