Black Mamba
Member
Silver has Obama at 77.3% today. What moved it up? I didn't notice any new polls or economic data that he inputs into the model come out...miss something?
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
- Thread starter pigeon
- Start date
- Status
thezerofire
Banned
I think they're all hosted on C-SPAN too
PhoenixDark
Banned
Lack of a meaningful Romney bounce and some decent poll results. He has said Obama will lose those recent gains if he gets a similar bounce as Romney's
His model makes an adjustment for historical convention bounces, and predicted that Romney would bounce to +4 points a week after his convention. He got a pitiful bounce, so the model is backing out enough to counter a larger bounce than he got. It's a bearish sign for his chances.
If Obama does not get a bounce, the model will swing the other way quickly. In a couple weeks the adjustments work through and we'll be back to normal.
More reading: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/sept-5-looking-ahead-after-charlotte/
The graph is what the model predicted for bounces.
anonymous_abc
Member
so apparently, if the Germans had the vote in the US election Obama would receive 86% of the vote...
not really surprising, but still interesting, are the US people aware of how outer worldly some of views are?
they don't say it expressly, but I seriously doubt Romney would get the 14% but that most of that will be "I don't know"
not really surprising, but still interesting, are the US people aware of how outer worldly some of views are?
they don't say it expressly, but I seriously doubt Romney would get the 14% but that most of that will be "I don't know"
More importantly according to Silver, Obama's chances of winning VA went up and Romney's chances of winning North Carolina went down (now at 59%).
so apparently, if the Germans had the vote in the US election Obama would receive 86% of the vote...
not really surprising, but still interesting, are the US people aware of how outer worldly some of views are?
they don't say it expressly, but I seriously doubt Romney would get the 14% but that most of that will be "I don't know"
Those on the right don't care about outer American views. They take pride in being "outer worldly," as you so put it. In fact they attack Obama by othering him and claiming he gets his ideas from Europe. That's an insult here. Hell, I bet people like Drudge wouldn't hesitate to run a story like this, and the people reading would just laugh and feel prideful that they're so uniquely different and totally better than those Germans.
Black Mamba
Member
Thank you, this was the answer I was looking for.
Guys, I know about the convention bounce. But the numbers changed like a few hours ago (I checked this afternoon and don't remember it being above 77%) so I was wondering what new info came out to affect it.
As Reilo points out, it's 2 new state polls.
That's not what I said
Besides, no new polls were added to his database as far as I can tell for those two states since 9/2.Ghaleon is actually correct as Silver's model takes a long-term look at the data. If the polls remain unchanged, that's a net positive for Obama. Any day that Romney doesn't gain a significant chunk in the polls as the election draws closer is a net gain for Obama.
The numbers will probably come down by Sunday -- UNLESS there's a convention bounce in line with Silver's prediction.
speculawyer
Member
so apparently, if the Germans had the vote in the US election Obama would receive 86% of the vote...
not really surprising, but still interesting, are the US people aware of how outer worldly some of views are?
they don't say it expressly, but I seriously doubt Romney would get the 14% but that most of that will be "I don't know"
The economist did a poll last election and basically just about every country where they polled except Israel and some eastern european country were for Obama over McCain. It is probably no different this time.
Bizarrely, many conservatives post things like 'the rest of the world is laughing at us because of who we have in office' . . . . uh . . . try reading what they actually say some time instead of making it up in your head.
anonymous_abc
Member
heheBlack Mamba
Member
That's not what I said
Ghaleon is actually correct as Silver's model takes a long-term look at the data. If the polls remain unchanged, that's a net positive for Obama. Any day that Romney doesn't gain a significant chunk in the polls as the election draws closer is a net gain for Obama.
The numbers will probably come down by Sunday -- UNLESS there's a convention bounce in line with Silver's prediction.
oh, i assumed you meant there were polls.
What caused the change in Va and NC, then? I always assumed what you said is changed earlier in the day. Such a late change made me think something new got added into the poll.
Did those states release economic data, perhaps?
The same thing that has caused this spike in Obama's chances according to Silver this entire time: Romney's convention bounce underperformed compared to the historical adjusted average convention bounce. In order for Romney to have improved his chances in Silver's, his convention bounce would had to have been ABOVE the historical average -- and they clearly were not.
Black Mamba
Member
Yes, I get that. Maybe we're on different wavelengths.
I might be wrong here, but I thought I saw that adjustment earlier in the day (national poll show weak bounce for mittens) and then the model adjusted again something late this afternoon or early evening and I'm wondering why.
You specifically mentioned a change in Va and NC but a lack of convention bounce can't change that without a poll of those 2 states. What drove those changes today?
The Chosen One
Member
John Kerry definitely delivered the best foreign policy punches of the entire week. He didn't hold back at all.
I'd say after watching both conventions, the Dems looked more like the grown-ups of the two parties. On the average, the DNC speakers were more specific on policy to back up their claims/ideals. While the RNC speakers mostly spouted rhetoric that was either empty or just not factual. They never really got specific to explain how they would do things.
And the RNC heavy-hitters, Ann Romney, Ryan, and Romney, just weren't on par with Michelle, Clinton, and Obama. Marco Rubio was the only one at the RNC who truly stepped up. Just about all the others used the RNC platform to promote their record and agenda instead of Romney's. And that's even ignoring the "empty chair" disaster.
I have no idea on the poll bounces, but I think at minimum Obama will maintain his statistical lead within a week or so. The debates are the next big event, but I don't see Obama crumbling in those. Add in the electoral map, IMO Obama is now pretty much on a glide path to reelection assuming no major external event happens. The DNC convention has proven that the Dems are still very well organized and still have some excited people on the ground who will be even more energized after this convention. This makes me think Obama will likely be able to hold on to at least 50% of the swing states. Considering Romney has to run almost run the table on swing states, it's becoming less likely because Romney keeps blowing opportunities to gain some significant ground.
I'd say after watching both conventions, the Dems looked more like the grown-ups of the two parties. On the average, the DNC speakers were more specific on policy to back up their claims/ideals. While the RNC speakers mostly spouted rhetoric that was either empty or just not factual. They never really got specific to explain how they would do things.
And the RNC heavy-hitters, Ann Romney, Ryan, and Romney, just weren't on par with Michelle, Clinton, and Obama. Marco Rubio was the only one at the RNC who truly stepped up. Just about all the others used the RNC platform to promote their record and agenda instead of Romney's. And that's even ignoring the "empty chair" disaster.
I have no idea on the poll bounces, but I think at minimum Obama will maintain his statistical lead within a week or so. The debates are the next big event, but I don't see Obama crumbling in those. Add in the electoral map, IMO Obama is now pretty much on a glide path to reelection assuming no major external event happens. The DNC convention has proven that the Dems are still very well organized and still have some excited people on the ground who will be even more energized after this convention. This makes me think Obama will likely be able to hold on to at least 50% of the swing states. Considering Romney has to run almost run the table on swing states, it's becoming less likely because Romney keeps blowing opportunities to gain some significant ground.
Black Mamba
Member
lololol. Look, this isn't a big deal, but was it really so hard for the GOP to find someone who wasn't a registered repub or repub staffer to do that stupid "breaking up" ad?
Aaron Strife
Banned
Obama's percentage went up in all the states.
My first time traveling to Europe was in 2007. My second time was in mid 2009, and I went again in 2011.
The difference in political conversation was night and fucking day. I didn't get the "stupid American" comments in 2007, but people sure did want to talk about Iraq and how much our government sucked. My second and third times in Europe, there was absolutely none of that.
I got lots of comments along the lines of "I'm just happy you guys finally have a good President," or "I don't think Americans are stupid, but honestly, how did you guys elect an idiot like Bush?"
Are they hiring?
TacticalFox88
Banned
It seems they're always willing to take on a new writer if you're good.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Most of the older people I know use google, we can't assume this is all about young people.
Yeah how do we know they're not registering to vote against him?
Did I do it right? lol
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
Loved Obama's speech. I'm glad he gave a clear indicator of what his 'Forward' entails; nice mix of policy and rhetoric. But most importantly, I loved his hair trim, no longer making him look like a grandad with white sprouts, and more like the sexy politician he was 4 years ago.
Rocket Scientist
Member
Do Republican politicians and spokespeople ever mention getting registered during their speeches?
And about an hour and a half until the job numbers?
http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns...-romney-swingstate-blitz-revealed-134835.html
Obama's about to get carpet-bombed in swing states. GOP doesn't seem to think the conventions went well for them..
Obama's about to get carpet-bombed in swing states. GOP doesn't seem to think the conventions went well for them..
Black Republican
Member
the campaign money is finally unleashed!
Silver takes stock market data into account as well. It did pretty well yesterday
Officerrob
Banned
Here in Roanoke Virginia, all I hear is people complain about all the ads (from both sides). We are two months away from the election and I think we are close to the saturation point. A few more weeks and they will all just be throwing money away
lol, that sample ad is pretty mediocre though. Romney's going to have to do a lot better than that with his ads.
First Romney ads for NC
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1Z6AH7g7YI&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1Z6AH7g7YI&feature=player_embedded
Terrible.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1Z6AH7g7YI&feature=player_embedded
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1Z6AH7g7YI&feature=player_embedded
Terrible.
Officerrob
Banned
WOW, you were not kidding. That ad is really poor
I though this ad was the same one wow
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n1Z6AH7g7YI&feature=player_embedded
Salvor.Hardin
Banned
Isn't everyone over estimating the power of political ads? Especially a deluge of them? We know that having a presence is important, so ads are helpful, but I would really like to read a study about the extent of their effects on voting.
I'm more inclined to believe that effective campaigning is what is actually important, and not the number of ads you play. And up until now, I'm not under the impression that the Romney campaign has pulled off an effective campaign. Nor is the Obama campaign strapped for cash either, so it's not like they won't be able to compete with their own ads.
I'm more inclined to believe that effective campaigning is what is actually important, and not the number of ads you play. And up until now, I'm not under the impression that the Romney campaign has pulled off an effective campaign. Nor is the Obama campaign strapped for cash either, so it's not like they won't be able to compete with their own ads.
Ground game to me is much more important.
Officerrob
Banned
15 new ads and the Romney campaign isn't putting-up ads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin? That's kinda telling
Yep, those ads have a short-term impact that largely fades after a week or two. People in those swing-states will be sick of it by October, if they're not already. And a deluge of ads can't hide Romney's faults, and he'll have to do well in the debates to make an impact in the polls (though a downturn in the economy will help too).
And Loudninja's right on. The Obama investment in field offices/Ground game/GOTV will definitely pay off. Remember that this guy's still a former Community Organizer and knows its importance.
Black Republican
Member
210k 8.1%
Souldriver
Member
What the hell was that? Haha... I think I like it, but I'm not sure.
Prediction?
Officerrob
Banned
I'm going with 165K
- Status
Similar threads
- Poll