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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down
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Oh shit. What for?
Aaron Strife
Banned
538 -
Obama's officially over 80% in the forecast with 319 electoral votes.
Over 75% in Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire. 74.8% in Ohio, 66.9% in Florida.
Obama's officially over 80% in the forecast with 319 electoral votes.
Over 75% in Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire. 74.8% in Ohio, 66.9% in Florida.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
I'm so thrilled to see how things are shaping up in Florida. I've been 99% sure of an Obama re-election for a while now, but watching Florida go from light pink to an increasing dark shade of blue on 538 has been really comforting.
538 actually has Obama with a higher change of winning under the Now-cast than the election day forecast.
I think that's the first time that's happened.
Eh, we're still more important than 40 other states at least. Still remotely possible it could matter if there's a regional swing somewhere.
ryutaro's mama
Member
It's not even funny.
It's depressing and I actually felt kinda bad for Palin.
She was in waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over her head in 2008.
Steve Schmidt was a trooper to deal with that nonsense.
Another win in North Carolina would be huge for Obama's political capital. After all the shit they put him through, he's still popular enough to eat their lunch right on their doorstep. There would be no rebuttal to such a commanding victory. The American people would have spoken clearly and picked their side.
Al-ibn Kermit
Junior Member
....But?
Probably got a little too excited in NFLGAF.
If NC turns blue that would be amazing, it would also be indicative to a wave I think. The polling for House and Senate races is going to be interesting to watch in the run-up to November, I think if we start seeing small shifts toward the dems in the next few weeks this could be something big.
Obama has a chance to put a nail in the coffin with the debates. Do we know who's playing Mittens in his practice sessions?
edit: Apparently it's John Kerry.
Kerry. I think Mitt has Portman standing in for Obama. It's going to be a blow out.
Kerry I'd assume. I haven't seen any official reports.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
I think we're witnessing the continuing fallout of the GWB years and just how badly it fucked up the party brand. Combine that with 9/11, two wars, Katrina, BP, economic/housing/world financial meltdowns, and the rise and fall of the Tea Party movement, and you'll see how badly frayed the party has become.
These are the aftershocks of the worst presidency in American history. It's hard to figure out what went wrong when the party in power did everything you wanted and were always told would work.
That's why we're seeing the neocon expulsion, while the evangelicals and the libertarians try to wrest control over the party from each other (and sometimes conflating/combining their mutually exclusive policy stances), and big business is still financing each camp in the background. What we're seeing is that somehow big money controls the party (surprised, right?), and libertarians and evangelicals are going MITT ROMNEY???
That Mitt Romney can be trotted out there in THIS election, after the wall-street driven economic crash, after all the imagery of Occupy and golden parachutes for these fucking tax-haven criminals, after everything, is a testament to the continuing strength of the party apparatus.
These are the aftershocks of the worst presidency in American history. It's hard to figure out what went wrong when the party in power did everything you wanted and were always told would work.
That's why we're seeing the neocon expulsion, while the evangelicals and the libertarians try to wrest control over the party from each other (and sometimes conflating/combining their mutually exclusive policy stances), and big business is still financing each camp in the background. What we're seeing is that somehow big money controls the party (surprised, right?), and libertarians and evangelicals are going MITT ROMNEY???
That Mitt Romney can be trotted out there in THIS election, after the wall-street driven economic crash, after all the imagery of Occupy and golden parachutes for these fucking tax-haven criminals, after everything, is a testament to the continuing strength of the party apparatus.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=g82PaPASGdc
Romney claims he isn't cutting taxes for the rich now? I also like how he got asked AGAIN for a specific example of a loophole he'd close and he just ignores that question. And if all the savings created by a lower rate are undone by closing loopholes, doesn't that go against his original justification for the tax breaks?
http://www.mittromney.com/issues/tax
"To repair the nation’s tax code, marginal rates must be brought down to stimulate entrepreneurship, job creation, and investment, while still raising the revenue needed to fund a smaller, smarter, simpler government."
Romney claims he isn't cutting taxes for the rich now? I also like how he got asked AGAIN for a specific example of a loophole he'd close and he just ignores that question. And if all the savings created by a lower rate are undone by closing loopholes, doesn't that go against his original justification for the tax breaks?
http://www.mittromney.com/issues/tax
"To repair the nation’s tax code, marginal rates must be brought down to stimulate entrepreneurship, job creation, and investment, while still raising the revenue needed to fund a smaller, smarter, simpler government."
Byakuya769
Member
I don't like going ad hominem, but Romney is a lying piece of shit. That video just confirmed it.
Captain Tuttle
Member
An amazing post. And all true.
Yep. He knows that Obama and dems want bush tax cuts expired except under 250k.
Did Gregory call him out or what?
http://m.yahoo.com/w/legobpengine/n..._host_hdr=news.yahoo.com&.intl=US&.lang=en-US
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
That was the moment? Not the dozens of times he's switched stances on an issue, back, forth, back back forth and forth? Not when he lied about his residency, his taxes, or his positions?
There's a reason his campaign doesn't know his positions, you know.
Byakuya769
Member
Long time liar, this latest one put him in the "piece of shit" category for me though.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The thing I remember about 2008 was was how quickly conservatives took to blaming McCain as a candidate.
I'm sure they'll try to blame Romney once he loses, but you can only do that so many times before you have to admit you really lost. Dems didn't have inspiring candidates in 2000 and 2004 but at least we won one of those.
I'm sure they'll try to blame Romney once he loses, but you can only do that so many times before you have to admit you really lost. Dems didn't have inspiring candidates in 2000 and 2004 but at least we won one of those.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Fair enough. Though I don't think he's a piece of shit any more than I do any other self-aware Republican.
I saw your post a few pages back and no groveling will be needed. Instead I'd like recognition that it was based on a fair perception of the electorate, the map, and the election in relation to times in which we're living. Assuming it (320+) happens.
Groveling will also work.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, he's got to put up or shut up. He wants to claim these magic tax cuts that will somehow stimulate the economy yet remain revenue neutral. He'll be able to grow defense spending, yet cut the deficit. He likes Ryan's budget . . . but denies he'll cut taxes for the rich. All this contradictory stuff . . . must be magic. But he can't tell you exactly how he'll do it. I guess that is Bain Capital trade secret or something.
I know . . . he'll grow the economy and that will fix everything. (By doing the same things that Bush already did?)
speculawyer
Member
Go ahead and blame him. Blame it on his stiffness. Blame it on his religion. Blame it on his flip-flops. Blame it on him not being a "real conservative". That just means you'll make the same mistakes and lose another presidential election cycle. They are getting thrown-off by the off-year elections wherein reliable old-people turn out masks the demographic changes.
I mostly recall McCain getting blamed for picking Palin, followed by blaming Palin.
It makes it all the more amazing that they nominated freaking Romney after that. I hope the lesson they take this time is, okay, now for a die-hard conservative. None of those RINOs!
Because that will go over well.
The thing is if you are going to blame a candidate, then Mitt would be the guy you'd blame. I mean hes a horrible candidate for a number of reasons not relating to his party. My guess is the blame him, then double down with Christie or Santorum four years from now.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Scarborough's such a damn hack. He was a GOP congressman for heaven's sake, why would he be considered a valuable source of information?
"Polling's tight in the critical battleground state of North Tacoma, where former president Barack Obama has yet to cast his vote."
Oh man, Santorum getting nominated in 2016 would be great. Hillary would kick his ass so hard they'd have to start making up states just to give him any chance. And then he'd lose those too.B-Dubs said:
"Polling's tight in the critical battleground state of North Tacoma, where former president Barack Obama has yet to cast his vote."
Black Mamba
Member
almost 81%!
Anyone else see Paul Ryan and Romney on their Sunday media blitz?
Neither of them were willing to state what deductions they'd cut. Stepanufflopogus even asked Ryan directly about it and Ryan's answer was:
"we want it to be a public debate. With Congress."
GS: "that's what I'm asking you. To bring it up for the public to know before they vote."
"And they will, after we bring it up to the elected officials in Congress."
Do they actually think real swing voters don't see through the BS? I know he won't list any, because they're lying about their plan, but it's so absurd they can't even list a single ridiculous deduction they would eliminate. And their claim of "we'll make it public as soon as we're elected" is all the more insane. I bet more than anything swing voters are seeing Ryan more and more like a used car salesman. The guy oozes fake.
BTW, to those who claimed they're shocked that Mitt and crew can't have a coherent plan on health care, I got news for you.
The GOP has no plan. On anything. At all. With the sole exception of cutting marginal tax rates. That's the extent of all their plans. They have no plans for health care. They have no plans for job creation. They have no plan on deficit reduction. They have no plan for foreign affairs. They have no plans for energy policy. They can't even plan out a convention speech by an old man celebrity. I mean, they claim they'll create 12 million jobs in the next 4 years. But that's already expected with no change at all (and Ryan got owned by stepenofolofugus on this directly, you need to see it). Because they have no plan.
It's exactly why I said months ago here the republicans will lose; you can't win by saying "we're not him, but we have no alternative choice."
They are not coherent because they are winging it day by day, hour by hour. They have no idea what their ideas are. And it's exactly why Obama's zinger worked regarding tax cuts prescriptions.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Their entire campaign essentially boils down to "It's our turn to be president!"
There was another fellow who ran a campaign like that, he didn't make it past the primaries.
Black Mamba
Member
Never fear:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=41877128&highlight=#post41877128
Been right so far. If he continues to be, it will be the nail in the coffin.
It's mostly how Kerry ran his campaign, too.
The hilarious thing is that they keep shining focus on Obama's tangible successes. The auto bailout and foreign policy. Why on Earth does Romney keep bringing up foreign policy? Oooh, the Iran boogey man. NO ONE CARES THAT MUCH. Not after the Iraq debacle.
Under Obama, OBL dead, Iraq done, Afghan almost done, and Libya success w/o a single troop casualty. You don't bring up foreign policy in this election. Ever. They're fucking morons.
Aaron Strife
Banned
What's really funny is how they tried to spin OBL's death as a bad thing.
Look, I'm willing to believe that Rove's team can spin ANY positive into a negative, no matter how good it is (see Kerry's war record). This has to be quite literally the one thing you can't. Perhaps it could have been neutralized by saying any president would have made that call, except Romney's on record saying that he wouldn't have gone after OBL, sucks to be you.
Any time OBL is brought up, it just reminds voters that Obama's the man who got him.
Won't prevent me from chewing my nails till they bleed and setting my alarm clock for 5:00am on the morning of BLS lol
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
The only way the GOP could beat Obama this election would be with a credible blue-collar conservative governor from a northern state. Romney is missing the one-third that matters most.
If you're running this campaign, the one and only message has to center around jobs. The problem, of course, is that the only strategy to create jobs the right can think of is to cut taxes for rich people and hope it sprinkles down.
If you're running this campaign, the one and only message has to center around jobs. The problem, of course, is that the only strategy to create jobs the right can think of is to cut taxes for rich people and hope it sprinkles down.
Hey, I happened across this video on Youtube. Does anyone know what event this was at? What made Obama cry?
PhoenixDark
Banned
Dorothy Height's funeral
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Sudden realization: the only way Romney wins is if he wins all the swing states.
I mean, I knew this. You knew this. But....LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLL
I mean, I knew this. You knew this. But....LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLLLL
Oh wow, I guess that would do it.
Ah.. the old "growth solves all ills" chestnut. How very quaint.
At some point, we're going to learn that growth can't continue ad infinitum. To be fair, neither party will produce a candidate willing to admit this. We're going to be dragged into this future reality, kicking and screaming.
This is why my mind is boggled when I encounter Obama haters who swear that he's toast. Their shock on Election Night - and their corresponding saltiness - will be remarkable.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Romney's total if he won all the swing states (not counting Wisconsin) is 291. Florida alone would flip that.
Obama's total is 347. His lead is outside the MOE in all but NC and FL which puts him at 303.
Game over, man!
357/358 would involve picking up Missouri (10), Indiana (11), or Arizona (11).eBay Huckster said:
Historic precedent holds that since FDR, no president has been re-elected with less EVs than they won in their first election, so clearly Obama will take all three. And Nebraska's 2nd district.
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