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PoliGAF 2012 |OT3| If it's not a legitimate OT the mods have ways to shut it down

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E

eBay Huckster

Member
If the 538 projection gets any more lopsided I'm going to start looking at the EV distributions a bit closer, because right now it looks like it's showing about 357 (358?) as the third most-likely outcome
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PantherLotus said:
It doesn't say that it's the third most-likely outcome, does it?
Click to expand...
It's the electoral vote distribution chart, it's underneath the state-by-state probabilities.

332 (all swing states but NC) appears to be more likely than 347 (swing state sweep) by a hair, they're both around 12%. Then (i'm assuming since you can't zoom in or anything) it goes 303 (loses FL/NC) -> 358 -> 357 in terms of likelihood.

sc0la's right in that it doesn't really have any predicative value, just a fun graph to play with.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
eBay Huckster said:
If the 538 projection gets any more lopsided I'm going to start looking at the EV distributions a bit closer, because right now it looks like it's showing about 357 (358?) as the third most-likely outcome
Click to expand...
Remember each EV instance is from a simulation, and thousands of such are run every day. Some of the instances of that EV count could come from something weird, like him winning Texas, in any given simulation. The EV distribution are probabilistic, not predictive. His ceiling of EVs is lower than a lot of those EVs outcomes in the distribution
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
sc0la said:
Remember each EV instance is from a simulation, and thousands of such are run every day. Some of the instances of that EV count could come from something weird, like him winning Texas, in any given simulation. The EV distribution are probabilistic, not predictive. His ceiling of EVs is lower than a lot of those EVs outcomes in the distribution
Click to expand...

It's hard for that to account for an outcome that pops up a whole lot. In order for a Texas win to be contributing to a particular spike, Obama also has to lose some states he's winning in most of the other simulations, and the EVs of those states have to add to exactly what Texas is worth. Most of the big spikes are going to be almost entirely composed of just one or two configurations of state-by-state victories. Texas-type events are probably what accounts for some of the 400+ results, but those are shown on the graph as extremely unlikely.
 
M

makingmusic476

Member
If Obama picks off North Carolina, I think it's safe to say he'll win every other swing state he has a reasonable shot at (Wisconsin, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Florida).

I think it's 50/50 that he'll repeat 2008 minus Indiana or 2008 minus Indiana and North Carolina.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
It's too long to post, but a great article on the Ryan Budget and it's damage/bullshit.

http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/09/edsall-the-ryan-sinkhole/

I dislike this guy more each article I read.

Also, the article gives me this picture:

10edsall-img-articleInline.jpg


lol. should be someone's Av.
 
F

Forever

Banned
I'm glad that we have a clear advantage, because I don't think I could stomach another two months of agonizing over the possibility of a President Romney.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I can't think of anything that could swing momentum to Romney this month, it's rather depressing. September 11th is just going to remind everyone that Bin Laden is dead, and each day that goes by is another day Romney didn't release policy details (or tax records) on. bleh..
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I can't think of anything that could swing momentum to Romney this month, it's rather depressing. September 11th is just going to remind everyone that Bin Laden is dead, and each day that goes by is another day Romney didn't release policy details (or tax records) on. bleh..
Click to expand...

And then we get to the debates!
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I can't think of anything that could swing momentum to Romney this month, it's rather depressing. September 11th is just going to remind everyone that Bin Laden is dead, and each day that goes by is another day Romney didn't release policy details (or tax records) on. bleh..
Click to expand...

It's like you're disappointed you have nothing to fret about :D
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I can't think of anything that could swing momentum to Romney this month, it's rather depressing. September 11th is just going to remind everyone that Bin Laden is dead, and each day that goes by is another day Romney didn't release policy details (or tax records) on. bleh..
Click to expand...
Darn.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
M

Measley

Junior Member
Thank you Ezra Klein for FINALLY saying on Morning Joe that there are specifics in Obama's plan and not Romney's. Tired of hearing that both sides haven't been specific. Its a B.S. argument.
 
T

thefro

Member
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-romneys-tax-plan-bad-math-005225649--abc-news-politics.html

Taking President Clinton's speech and running with it

"I guess my opponent has a plan, but there's one thing missing from it: arithmetic," Obama said to laughter from the crowd of 6,000 at the Palm Beach County Convention Center.

"They couldn't answer the question of how you already have deficits, you add five trillion dollars in new tax cuts, two trillion dollars in new defense spending and somehow you're going to close the deficit without raising taxes on middle class families?" Obama said.

"They did not take their arithmetic course," he said to laughter from the fired up crowd. "They need to stay after school. They need to get some extra study hall in there. No recess for you."
Click to expand...
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I still think its early for celebration. Dont set yourselves up for a disappointment. I think we'll have a clear favorite two weeks from now. Lets hope RR stay off message as much as possible, like yesterday. I will never trust the American public whole heartedly.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Loudninja said:
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan won't answer the most basic questions
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=c4L763jgkuA
Click to expand...

My only guess regarding their vagueness is that they think they'll be able to use the specific details better if they save them for the bebate, leaving Obama blindsided by whatever their approach is going to be.

At least, for their sake, I hope that's their idea. If they're really running on, "Elect us and we'll tell you" then... wow. See you in 2016, GOP.
 
A

anonymous_abc

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
My only guess regarding their vagueness is that they think they'll be able to use the specific details better if they save them for the bebate, leaving Obama blindsided by whatever their approach is going to be.

At least, for their sake, I hope that's their idea. If they're really running on, "Elect us and we'll tell you" then... wow. See you in 2016, GOP.
Click to expand...

There is an interesting piece in the new Time where they say.
if the gop looses this time the radicals will say its due to another non-radical candidate so the gop16 will quite possibly be even more unelectable to the middle... especially compared to Hilary.
 
C

codhand

Member
People waiting for GOP "specifics" ha righght.

They don't have any!
And if they do, they are like vouchercare and therefore extremely unpopular, what does Joe Scarborough want? "Their plan to shrink Government and reduce spending."? That's actual Obama's plan, and it's underway.



Whatver joy I got from watching Morning Joe was quickly squashed by hearing CSPAN callers. *shudder*
 
D

DEO3

Member
RustyNails said:
I still think its early for celebration. Dont set yourselves up for a disappointment. I think we'll have a clear favorite two weeks from now. Lets hope RR stay off message as much as possible, like yesterday. I will never trust the American public whole heartedly.
Click to expand...

I'm not taking anything for granted until we're past the debates. The Democrats had a great convention, and polling reflects that, but I don't see any reason the debates can't make this race neck and neck again.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
RustyNails said:
I still think its early for celebration. Dont set yourselves up for a disappointment. I think we'll have a clear favorite two weeks from now. Lets hope RR stay off message as much as possible, like yesterday. I will never trust the American public whole heartedly.
Click to expand...

No one is getting complacent. Its simply looking very, very difficult for Romney in terms of EC math. When you have to win basically every swing state and you're behind in pretty much every one of them post-convention, things aren't looking good.

In other news, I'm happy fundraising picked up last month. I donated more money last month than I did in the entirety of 2008.
 
G

gcubed

Member
DEO3 said:
I'm not taking anything for granted until we're past the debates. The Democrats had a great convention, and polling reflects that, but I don't see any reason the debates can't make this race neck and neck again.
Click to expand...

Huh? McCain is a much smarter and more accomplished politician than Romney and the best he did was hold on.

The only thing that will kill Obama is a scandal or economic implosion
 
M

markatisu

Member
Hitokage said:
To be fair, Romney can always blindside you with a new policy position. It won't be specific to the debates.
Click to expand...

But knowing Romney he will reverse his position before the end of the day, hell he could reverse in a debate too. Its not like he has flip flopped in the same conversation before
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
RustyNails said:
I still think its early for celebration. Dont set yourselves up for a disappointment. I think we'll have a clear favorite two weeks from now. Lets hope RR stay off message as much as possible, like yesterday. I will never trust the American public whole heartedly.
Click to expand...

Agreed. We need to remain vigilant, and vote on election day.
 
P

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
In Book Interview, Obama Expresses Regret For Lambasting Ryan Budget

Why would Obama regret THAT?

"I'll go ahead and say it – I think that I was not aware when I gave that speech that Jack Ryan was going to be sitting right there," the president told Woodward according to audio transcripts of their conversations, provided to ABC News.

"And so I did feel, in retrospect, had I known – we literally didn't know he was going to be there until – or I didn't know, until I arrived. I might have modified some of it so that we would leave more negotiations open, because I do think that they felt like we were trying to embarrass him," Obama continued. "We made a mistake."
Click to expand...

I believe expressing regret that you've hurt somebody's feelings while using the wrong name is something the internet calls trolling. I could be wrong. But he's pretty much making fun of him in this completely out-of-context quote.
 
B

Byakuya769

Member
What pisses me off about Romney's comment on taxes is this: he looks into the camera with a smug smile and claims taxes will not go down on high earners like I'm the simp for knowing the math doesn't add up. "You thought I would lower taxes on high earners!?! I'm running for President for Pete's sake, you dumbass!"
 
C

codhand

Member
Tim-E said:
Its simply looking very, very difficult for Romney in terms of EC math. When you have to win basically every swing state and you're behind in pretty much every one of them post-convention, things aren't looking good.
Click to expand...

bu-bu but, Dukakis! 17 pts!
 
S

Souldriver

Member
Could someone explain to me why everyone is saying Kerry will become Secretary of State? Has Hilary said she won't continue that job in a second term perhaps?
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Souldriver said:
Could someone explain to me why everyone is saying Kerry will become Secretary of State? Has Hilary said she won't continue that job in a second term perhaps?
Click to expand...

She's said that she's stepping down once this term is over.

tranciful said:
I still assume Romney's super PACs are out-raising Obama's
Click to expand...

Does it really matter? Romney has been behind all year; what has that infinite super PAC money done for him?
 
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