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[Brinbe]

Bams up +1 in NC (49-48) according to PPP.
Not necessarily a state that he totally needs (especially with things looking good in OH/VA) but it's just another place he's making Romney defend.

 

[Manmademan]

Could someone explain to me why everyone is saying Kerry will become Secretary of State? Has Hilary said she won't continue that job in a second term perhaps?

She has, yeah.

 

[HylianTom]

So Obama is now raising more money then Romney....so much for enthused Obama voters

Yup. I'm not the least bit concerned about the enthusiasm issue. As we get closer, it'll get even more ramped-up. Add to that the GOTV operation, and I'm looking forward to this. Makes me wish that I lived in or near a swing state.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Just seeing the updated % of victory on 538 from last night. Romney's below 20% on each predictor. Oh man. What was the likelihood on that chart of Obama winning the day of the election in 2008?

 

[Brinbe]

Also, Ras now has it 50-45. Dat bounce. Entire poll is post-convention since they do 3-day rolling avg.

 

[richiek]

clinton really gave him a freebie goddamn.

Bubba's counting on Bams helping to elect Hillary in 2016.

 

[Byakuya769]

Could someone explain to me why everyone is saying Kerry will become Secretary of State? Has Hilary said she won't continue that job in a second term perhaps?

Yea, HRC and Holder are gone.

 

[HylianTom]

So, the idea that Romney's Electoral College math is untenable may finally be starting to spread. This article comes from a man who had some interesting name-calling for Obama in the past..

The Troubles

http://thepage.time.com/2012/09/10/the-troubles/#ixzz264Rtlgdo

The danger for the Romney campaign right now is the congealing conventional wisdom that the Republican emerged from Tampa and Charlotte meaningfully behind and facing some tough electoral college reality.

This CW is driven by the post-convention polls showing a bump for President Obama; prominent Politico and New York Times stories citing key Republicans acknowledging that Boston is behind in Ohio and other must-win states; Obama outraising Romney in August; and weak Romney and Paul Ryan answers in interviews, on such topics as health care, the US military, and the budget. The “Fox News Sunday” round table yesterday sounded like a post-mortem explaining a Romney loss.

...

Until Romney breaks this cycle, he is in danger of living out the Haley Barbour dictum, in politics bad gets worse. Super PACs might start shifting their money from the presidential race to save the House majority and look to pick up Senate seats. Romney’s own fundraising will take a hit. Stories about Romney pulling up stakes in Michigan and other ostensible battlegrounds will add to the death stench. And there will be an avalanche of suggestions and second guessing from pundits and Republican operatives and politicians about Romney’s tactics, strategy, and staff.

 

[Incognito]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry

“It’s horses**t. Nobody in Boston thinks we’re going to lose. We’re in a tight race. We had a 4-5 point bounce after our convention and it evaporated when they had theirs. Now they have a 4-5 bounce. It’s going evaporate in September. We feel good about the map. We’re up with advertising in Wisconsin and I think North Carolina is going to come off the board. On Ohio, they’ve been spinning for months now that it’s out of reach.

There was a Columbus Post-Dispatch poll last week that had it 45-45.

That’s a more accurate picture of the state of the play there than any of the spin. PPP has these polls that just put chum in the water for the media. Sometimes I think there’s a conscious effort between the media and Chicago to get Republicans depressed. And I hope our friends realize that all these media analysts out there are Democrats WHO WANT US TO LOSE. And the more Washington DC controls our economy, the more important inside-the-beltway publications are and the more money they make. The 202 area code is dominated by people who will make more money if Obama is reelected, so it’s not just an ideological thumb they’re putting on the scale for him, it’s a business interest.

I actually think the other side is in a panic. You look at New Mexico closing up. And they’re not above 50 in any of their target states. Look, we’re raising money, they’re raising money, and it’s tight. This is a dogfight. But the numbers actually point to a romney win barring something unforeseen.”

their delusion only helps the obama campaign

 

[Brinbe]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry


their delusion only helps the obama campaign

Wow, if that's their attitude, no wonder their campaign is in the shitter... They're clearly not operating in reality.

 

[Father_Brain]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry


their delusion only helps the obama campaign

Well, if a paid Romney adviser told a major conservative outlet that they have no worries about the state of the race, it must be true! Dig back into the Corner archives and you can find all kinds of "exclusive" quotes like that from losing campaigns.

 

[HylianTom]

Reading that kinda makes me smile. If they go into Election Night honestly believing that they'll win, it will absolutely break them when key states start getting called for Obama.

I want to see them broken, so let 'em keep thinking that way.

 

[RustyNails]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry


their delusion only helps the obama campaign

The more well thought out the delusions are, the more salty the tears get.

 

[RDreamer]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/316400/horsest-rich-lowry


their delusion only helps the obama campaign

Wow. I mean I'd expect some spin. No campaign's going to come out and say "Yeah we're not doing good at all right now and it's looking bad." But to sit there and play the conspiracy game with the pollsters? wow

 

[CharlieDigital]

I wonder, though, does it help them or hurt them to come out and say that the polling shows that they may be down in some key battleground states?

Maybe being straight up about it helps them by firing up the base to get into action and get out of a feeling of complacency. Despite being ahead in most polls, Obama's campaign continually sends me emails making it feel like he's behind......................

Or maybe Team R&R actually believe they are in the lead? I find that really hard to believe.

 

[Loudninja]

I thought I was reading a youtube commet lol.

 

[Byakuya769]

They have to talk like that.

 

[Incognito]

as david axelrod says, it's kinda strange for a campaigns chief polling strategist to put out a memo that is "entirely devoid of polling."

 

[Black Republican]

If the fridays jobs report was 250k+ and the polls showed the exact same numbers, would they still say the same thing? hmmm

 

[pigeon]

They have to talk like that.

Well, this guy's off the record, so he doesn't have to. Remember McCain sources laying into Sarah Palin in 08? I think he's trying to reach the base. I'm sure this'll be on the Free Republic front page next to that ARG poll. If people keep talking about what Romney should've done differently in the past tense they may as well fold their tents. The possibility that he really believes that is almost terrifying.

 

[markatisu]

You know its getting close to be over when the conspiracy theories come into play

 

[Measley]

Anyone think that the shift in the polls is also partially because of what occurred with the Paul delegates? Ron Paul and libertarian sympathizers are a big part of Republican enthusiasm, and that display at the convention where they got denied even being counted probably turned them against the entire GOP establishment.

 

[Puddles]

Yea, HRC and Holder are gone.

Thank Tebow for that. Holder has been an absolute disgrace to the administration.

 

[thefro]

Wow, if that's their attitude, no wonder their campaign is in the shitter... They're clearly not operating in reality.

That would definitely seem to be part of Romney's problems.

They basically won the primary by crushing Newt & Santorum under a ton of money, but haven't shown themselves to be a good campaign staff to this point. I think a good number of his advisers are people from his 2008 campaign.

McCain's campaign at least won some news cycles and pulled off a good convention. I really have no idea on what the Romney campaign has been trying to do ever since the Obama campaign hit Romney's Bain experience hard. Their big push was that Romney was this genius businessman who could save the country that way and ever since that got destroyed they're pretty much throwing stuff against the wall constantly (which hurts their campaign since the media is talking about the new stuff Romney is throwing against the wall instead of the economy).

 

[RustyNails]

That would definitely seem to be part of Romney's problems.

They basically won the primary by crushing Newt & Santorum under a ton of money, but haven't shown themselves to be a good campaign staff to this point. I think a good number of his advisers are people from his 2008 campaign.

During the primaries, you shift to your base (left or right, depending on your party), and during the convention, you pivot to the center. Romney is still sticking to his hyper-conservative nonsense from the primaries: eliminate Obamacare, cut taxes, cut spending.

 

[Averon]

The Wall Street Journal joins the death march of the Romney campaign.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443921504577641694168291460.html

Romney Struggles to Gain Traction in Battlegrounds

With two months to Election Day, Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney faces the disconcerting reality that he isn't winning most of the states he would need to beat President Barack Obama.

...

This pattern is by no means set, and the Romney campaign is banking that voters' disillusion with the economy will win out in the end. In past elections, however, where candidates stand in mid-September can be a good indicator of the final result. That means Mr. Romney has little time to alter a race that for months has been essentially static.

...

Given the soft economy, "the case for firing President Obama is really pretty obvious, but the case for hiring Mitt Romney is one that has yet to be made," said Charlie Cook, an independent political analyst who edits the Cook Political Report.

 

[RDreamer]

During the primaries, you shift to your base (left or right, depending on your party), and during the convention, you pivot to the center. Romney is still sticking to his hyper-conservative nonsense from the primaries: eliminate Obamacare, cut taxes, cut spending.

His problem is that he's trying to pivot and not pivot at the same time. He's answering different things to different people. To his base and to the people paying attention it's "eliminate Obamacare." To Meet the Press it's "keep some of the good parts." With regard to cutting spending he's still trumpeting that, but not saying specifically what he's going to cut, really. With taxes he's doing the same thing. So he's keeping conservative, kind of, but using vagueness and flip flops in order to pivot.

 

[CharlieDigital]

With regard to cutting spending he's still trumpeting that, but not saying specifically what he's going to cut, really.

Don't forget his criticism of the sequestration.

 

[RDreamer]

Don't forget his criticism of the sequestration.

Yeah I suppose when you get into that he's on one hand to conservatives saying "Cut spending!" but then also saying "These spending cuts on the military are awful!" and even "Obama's spending cuts on medicare suck!"

He's playing both sides of the field, pivoting and not pivoting. He's Schrödinger's candidate.

 

[Effect]

That would definitely seem to be part of Romney's problems.

They basically won the primary by crushing Newt & Santorum under a ton of money, but haven't shown themselves to be a good campaign staff to this point. I think a good number of his advisers are people from his 2008 campaign.

This was always going to come back and bite them in the ass. He didn't win the primary by being the better person for the republicans by drowning out the others. They played with the "inevitably" story. There was so much push back to that though from primary voters. It's because of that push back he's had to work harder to get them on his side but that's just making him very extreme and that has to be turning on those that might have been willing to give him a chance.

I think Romney and his team really thought they could just coast by on the "I'm not President Obama". I said it before but republicans have really bought into their own talking points and the picture of President Obama they've tried to paint while ignoring what the reality is. Being disappointed in what Obama has done or not been able to do is different from hating him and wanting Romney in his place for the majority of people. It's like how they jumped on polls saying people didn't like health care reform. Those numbers included people not liking it because it didn't go far enough. Those numbers compared with people liking had a majority of people in favor of it I believe in the end when you take context into the equation..

 

[RustyNails]

His problem is that he's trying to pivot and not pivot at the same time. He's answering different things to different people. To his base and to the people paying attention it's "eliminate Obamacare." To Meet the Press it's "keep some of the good parts." With regard to cutting spending he's still trumpeting that, but not saying specifically what he's going to cut, really. With taxes he's doing the same thing. So he's keeping conservative, kind of, but using vagueness and flip flops in order to pivot.

You're right. His campaign reeks of amateurs.

 

[Puddles]

The Wall Street Journal joins the death march of the Romney campaign.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443921504577641694168291460.html

Romney Struggles to Gain Traction in Battlegrounds

The comments on that article are absolutely delicious.

 

[Tim-E]

I'm still quitely hoping that the folks in Chicago are sitting on something for October.

 

[Averon]

If Obama wins convincingly, I wonder how SuperPACs will operate on the presidential level in the future. Clearly, the barrage of negative ads from conservative SuperPACs hasn't been nearly as effective against Obama as they'd probably hoped. After all, no amount of money can change the candidates. People like and trust Obama on a deeper level that the GOP finds hard to understand. On the other hand, Mitt Romney has gained reputation of being a flip-flopping opportunist will no principles.

 

[Tim-E]

I also imagine that every democrat in the primaries for 2016 will be falling over themselves trying to get Axelrod, Plouffe, and Messina on their team.

 

[VanMardigan]

Why is New Mexico so safe for Obama? Why has it voted blue so much?

It seems like one of those states that should be reliably Republican, but isn't.

 

[Tim-E]

Why is New Mexico so safe for Obama? Why has it voted blue so much?

It seems like one of those states that should be reliably Republican, but isn't.

I'm guessing the fact that it has a higher percentage of hispanics than any other state has something to do with it.

 

[Measley]

Why is New Mexico so safe for Obama? Why has it voted blue so much?

It seems like one of those states that should be reliably Republican, but isn't.

Hispanic population in New Mexico is 40%.

 

[Averon]

Why is New Mexico so safe for Obama? Why has it voted blue so much?

It seems like one of those states that should be reliably Republican, but isn't.

You can thank that to the GOP shitting on Hispanics. The GOP is rapidly losing the entire southwest will their idiotic stance on immigration.

 

[CharlieDigital]

The comments on that article are absolutely delicious.

I would implore this gentleman to give it a shot and let us know how living near poverty with a disability feels.

 

[Tim-E]

There are a few conservatives that I know that I absolutely cannot wait to be around on November 7th. Democrats are positioned to win the gubernatorial, senate, and House races in our distrct in WV and a democrat will likely win the Presidency. Gimme dat salt.

 

[RDreamer]

I would implore this gentleman to give it a shot and let us know how living near poverty with a disability feels.

OMG. It's Oblivion's post in the healthcare thread come to life:

Okay, serious answer. Imagine if the government paid for free wheelchairs for everyone who couldn't walk. Do you pro-UHC guys seriously think such an initiative WOULDN'T give some more unscrupulous people an incentive to break their own legs?

 

[Fragamemnon]

Romney message is just muddled and all over the place. He and his staff spend more time clarifying his remarks than contrasting his positions with Obama. I agree with Josh Marshall's assessment that a big problem Mittens has is that while he's got a lot of actual convictions (New Kenyesian economics, mandate-driven health care), they don't jive with the GOP base and he's constantly trying to spin things in three directions (against himself, against his base, and against moderate voters).

No one can figure out what Mitt actually means to do in office anymore outside the usual GOP sterotype activities, and the "I'm not Obama" narrative doesn't work when people as a whole like Obama a lot (they just don't like his performance in office to date that much).

I would implore this gentleman to give it a shot and let us know how living near poverty with a disability feels.

This goes the same for those fools thinking that non-citizen immigrants to our country live the good life off public support. NOT THE CASE.

 

[Averon]

The hits just keeps coming.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-dnc-rated-slightly-better-than-rnc-obamas

Gallup: Obama’s Speech Better Received Than Romney’s

Obama's Thursday night speech earned a rating of either "excellent" or "good" by 43 percent of respondents, compared with 38 percent who said the same of Romney's nomination address — the lowest rating given to a nominee's convention speech since Gallup started tracking it in 1996.

Neither candidate came close to matching the public's favorable response to former President Bill Clinton's speech on Wednesday night at the DNC. Fifty-six percent rated Clinton's speech — in which he formally nominated Obama for a second term — as "good" or "excellent."

Bill clearly helped Obama.

 

[Loudninja]

Yemen says kills deputy regional head of al Qaeda

Reuters) - Yemeni armed forces have killed Said al-Shehri, a man seen as the second-in-command of Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), a government website said on Monday.

A Yemeni security source said Shehri was killed in an operation last Wednesday which was thought to have been carried out by a U.S. drone, rather than the Yemeni military. The source said another Saudi and an Iraqi national were among the others killed.

Shehri is a former inmate of the U.S. detention facility at Guantanamo Bay who was released to Saudi Arabia in 2007 and put through a Saudi rehabilitation programme for militants.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/10/uk-yemen-qaeda-idUKBRE8890O220120910

 

[CharlieDigital]

OMG. It's Oblivion's post in the healthcare thread come to life:

His trolling has been pretty brilliant.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Could someone explain to me why everyone is saying Kerry will become Secretary of State? Has Hilary said she won't continue that job in a second term perhaps?

Secretaries of State don't usually go two terms. There's exceptions, like Warren Christopher doing a short run with Carter and another with Clinton, but I don't think anyone's served more than four years in a row since FDR.

EDIT: Whoops, forgot about Shultz under Reagan.

EDIT AGAIN: And Dean Rusk for JFK/LBJ.

 

[Arrowgigantic]

Thank Tebow for that. Holder has been an absolute disgrace to the administration.

No he hasn't. He's just been targeted, and guess why.

 

[AlteredBeast]

The hits just keeps coming.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-dnc-rated-slightly-better-than-rnc-obamas

Gallup: Obama’s Speech Better Received Than Romney’s



Bill clearly helped Obama.

I am sure Romney's video would have helped him more than having Clint Eastwood mention two words about him, as well. Super bungled by RNC and Romney campaign.

 

[izakq]

Why is New Mexico so safe for Obama? Why has it voted blue so much?

It seems like one of those states that should be reliably Republican, but isn't.

You also have to take into account that former NM Gov. Gary Johnson will be on the ballot as well, and he'll be syphoning away those republican votes from Romney.