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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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Trakdown

Member
Easy comeback:

"But Mr. President, I made the trip. I wasn't on a sound stage in NYC laughing it up with David Letterman. I want to be the American President, not the American Idol."

"Well, being the American president means representing your country abroad and being a responsible guest, not denigrating a country that's hosting a major event like the Olympics. Maybe you should go on Dave's show if you wanna make jokes about how they're doing."
 

Cloudy

Banned
Edit: Also, you're not going to win a lot of favors with the right by playing up the importance of the UN.

The Right does NOT care what Romney says or does to get elected. They just want to beat Obama. I mean, they are applauding Mitt for a debate where he totally embraced centrist positions!
 
"Well, being the American president means representing your country abroad and being a responsible guest, not denigrating a country that's hosting a major event like the Olympics. Maybe you should go on Dave's show if you wanna make jokes about how they're doing."

Touche.
 
The Right does NOT care what Romney says or does to get elected. They just want to beat Obama. I mean, they are applauding Mitt for a debate where he totally embraced centrist positions!

Which is what is so shocking about the PPP Wisconsin poll, because all Romney did was gain traction with his own party. Where were these people before? Did they really not care enough for Romney that they were going to pass-up the chance to vote against Obama? Just weird.
 
We all know Romney knows fuck all about foreign policy. He flip flops on domestic issues. Attacking him where he feels most safe would be perfect. Romney's record as business man isn't as sterling as he claims it is. Bring that down, and he's got nothing left.

The thing that worries me is Romney having the opportunity to tell the country (I'm making this part up) about the time that they took over some company that was about to under and saved 100s of jobs. Everyday people like you and me, single mothers, grand parents now had pay checks, better health insurance, day-care allowances, etc b/c of Romney's dedication to the workers.

Cherry on top would be tying that in with how more people working equals more taxes paid.
 

Trakdown

Member
Which is what is so shocking about the PPP Wisconsin poll, because all Romney did was gain traction with his own party. Where were these people before? Did they really not care enough for Romney that they were going to pass-up the chance to vote against Obama? Just weird.

September was really, really bad for the GOP in general. Romney didn't shine at his own convention, the 47% remarks came out and it didn't seem like a day went by where either Romney or somebody else in his campaign didn't shit the bed. I wouldn't have been excited either. This was the first time in a loooong time that Mitt actually looked like a plausible candidate.
 

Cloudy

Banned
More gambling stuff

http://www.liveoddsandscores.com/pr...romney-to-win-us-election-obama-310-favourite

Romney attracting the riches

A bet of £40,000 has been placed with Ladbrokes on Mitt Romney in the race to become President of the United States.

The wager was struck on the Republican at odds of 9/4, meaning the political punter will take home a cool £130,000 should Romney do the business in November.

Despite the big money coming in it is still Barack Obama who remains the front runner in the market, finding himself currently chalked up as the odds-on 3/10 favourite.

Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes said: "Our punter may think Romney's the man for the job but we're not so sure. We're happy to keep the prices as they are because as far as we're concerned Obama is untouchable."

Ladbrokes latest betting

US Presidential Race

Barack Obama 3/10
Mitt Romney 9/4

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics...l-odds-markets-say-about-the-election/262332/

Are the Libya violence and the Chicago teachers' strike having a powerful impact on the presidential race? There's passionate rhetoric on both sides, hundreds of commentaries across the media, and a number of opinion polls. But there's one source that, while imperfect, suggests a trend that has not yet been broken. That source is the Iowa Electronic Markets, an academic program that allows betting on political outcomes. The IEM shows that winner-take-all popular vote* chances for Barack Obama still are at about 2-to-1 over Mitt Romney.

I obviously believe in Oddsmakers/Bettors way more than pollsters
 
I don't follow basketball, educate me.

Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney has closed the gap in Wisconsin after his strong debate performance on Wednesday night. President Obama edges him by a 2-point margin in the state, 49 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, in a new poll from Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling (PPP). Obama had a lead outside the margin of error in PPP’s mid-September poll, 52 percent to Romney’s 45 percent.

Wisconsin voters think Romney won the debate by a 61 percent to 25 percent margin, and it seems to have helped Romney on his personal rating — he’s now seen favorably by 49 percent of likely voters, while unfavorably by 48 percent. That’s up from a negative 44 percent favorable, 51 percent unfavorable split last month.

The president retains a strong lead in the overall PollTracker Average of Wisconsin, however, as he was breaking away in the state during the weeks leading up to the debate. His advantage now stands at 8.5 percent.
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...unce-wisconsin-poll-obama-economy.php?ref=fpa

But debates don't matter
 
I don't follow basketball, educate me.

On the biggest stage, in front of the largest audience, in the championship series, LeBron mentally checked out when his team needed him most and his team (an overwhelming favorite going in) was upset and they lost in 6 games, 4-2.
 
2011 Heat were overwhelming favorites in Vegas.

Vegas odds means shit.

And they got to the finals. They flamed out, but unless Vegas had them at 100%, that's not some huge aggregate failure of the odds-makers. Same for Obama's 80% chance of winning, a 20% chance of losing is not zero, but it definitely isn't panic worthy.

Don't become the folks who always have to say, "fucking weatherman said there was a 30% chance of rain, and now it's storming. Idiot!"
 

richiek

steals Justin Bieber DVDs
Romney Won Using a Debate Technique Called the Gish Gallop

The Urban Dictionary defines the Gish Gallop thusly:

Named for the debate tactic created by creationist shill Duane Gish, a Gish Gallop involves spewing so much bullshit in such a short span on that your opponent can’t address let alone counter all of it. To make matters worse a Gish Gallop will often have one or more 'talking points' that has a tiny core of truth to it, making the person rebutting it spend even more time debunking it in order to explain that, yes, it's not totally false but the Galloper is distorting/misusing/misstating the actual situation. A true Gish Gallop generally has two traits.
1) The factual and logical content of the Gish Gallop is pure bullshit and anybody knowledgeable and informed on the subject would recognize it as such almost instantly. That is, the Gish Gallop is designed to appeal to and deceive precisely those sorts of people who are most in need of honest factual education.

2) The points are all ones that the Galloper either knows, or damn well should know, are totally bullshit. With the slimier users of the Gish Gallop, like Gish himself, its a near certainty that the points are chosen not just because the Galloper knows that they're bullshit, but because the Galloper is deliberately trying to shovel as much bullshit into as small a space as possible in order to overwhelm his opponent with sheer volume and bamboozle any audience members with a facade of scholarly acumen and factual knowledge.
 

Paches

Member

From that I found this pretty funny:

25402297.jpg
 

Diablos

Member
Thankfully there are two left.

But yeah all of this shit could have been prevented so easily.

After watching video of Plouffe and some other peeps from post-debate that night, I really do think they wanted Obama to just study Mitt for some reason. They are probably having nervous breakdowns behind closed doors that make me look like I'm totally calm. At least I hope they are and they are coming up with a masterful comeback, because they can't settle for less.

Shame, really. Before Obama just kinda had to tow the line, now he's gotta act like his back is up against the wall like it's 2007-2008 in the primary debacle.
 

Diablos

Member
They do, I think it's foolish to dismiss them completely. Especially with such a large audience.

More than anything I think it's the uber bad performance that makes people unable to treat it like most others. And it also fired up GOPers. So it's demoralizing one side a bit (not like crazy it seems, but a bit) and firing up the other side which beforehand was basically bracing for the worst.

So yeah.

WI poll looks closer to being a dead heat, so at that point it's gonna come down to enthusiasm/turnout. Obama has to get his base pumped up again, Clint Eastwood and 47% remarks won't be around to help this time.
 
They do, I think it's foolish to dismiss them completely. Especially with such a large audience.

More than anything I think it's the uber bad performance that makes people unable to treat it like most others. And it also fired up GOPers. So it's demoralizing one side a bit (not like crazy it seems, but a bit) and firing up the other side which beforehand was basically bracing for the worst.

So yeah.

Dude...Kerry eviscerated Bush in Game 1.

Ripped him a new one.

He did not win the Presidency.
 

Cloudy

Banned
They do, I think it's foolish to dismiss them completely. Especially with such a large audience.

More than anything I think it's the uber bad performance that makes people unable to treat it like most others.

It's not the audience. It's the traditional and social media beasts amplifying whatever happened. I personally didn't think Obama was that bad if you look at substance as well but a few hours later, it was the "worst debate performance of all time"!

Dude...Kerry eviscerated Bush in Game 1.

Ripped him a new one.

He did not win the Presidency.

If Youtube and Twitter were around in 2004, who knows what might have happened
 
It's not the audience. It's the traditional and social media beasts amplifying whatever happened. I personally didn't think Obama was that bad if you look at substance as well but a few hours later, it was the "worst debate performance of all time"!



If Youtube and Twitter were big in 2004, who knows what might have happened

It amazes me how in discussing the debates people will practically use the exact same words: "He looked tired and as if he didn't want to be there." Granted, there is some truth to that depiction, but it is odd to see it taken as such gospel and repeated ad nauseam. Ah well, maybe the expectations game will be in Obama's favor.
 

Diablos

Member
WI is nearly a dead heat on the economy and Mitt made some gains:

The poll isn’t all bad for Obama. While Romney’s image has certainly recovered, the president still bests him on who is more trusted to handle the economy, 49 percent to Romney’s 47 percent, down slighty from the previous poll that showed Obama leading on the question 51 percent to Romney’s 46 percent.

Could be a closer election that we are anticipating, but it's nice to see Obama maintaining the lead.

It amazes me how in discussing the debates people will practically use the exact same word: "He looked tired and as if he didn't want to be there." Granted, there is some truth to that depiction, but it is odd to see it taken as such gospel and repeated ad nauseam. Ah well, maybe the expectations game will be in Obama's favor.
Yeah it's pretty universal. He just straight up took himself completely out of the game.
 
Questions that were in the townhall debate in 2008:

Shaffer: With the economy on the downturn and retired and older citizens and workers losing their incomes, what's the fastest, most positive solution to bail these people out of the economic ruin?

Clark: Well, Senators, through this economic crisis, most of the people that I know have had a difficult time. And through this bailout package, I was wondering what it is that's going to actually help those people out.

Finch: How can we trust either of you with our money when both parties got -- got us into this global economic crisis?

Since World War II, we have never been asked to sacrifice anything to help our country, except the blood of our heroic men and women. As president, what sacrifices -- sacrifices will you ask every American to make to help restore the American dream and to get out of the economic morass that we're now in?

Jackson: Sen. McCain, I want to know, we saw that Congress moved pretty fast in the face of an economic crisis. I want to know what you would do within the first two years to make sure that Congress moves fast as far as environmental issues, like climate change and green jobs?

Trella: Senator, selling health care coverage in America as the marketable commodity has become a very profitable industry.

Do you believe health care should be treated as a commodity?

Elliott: Yes. Sen. McCain, how will all the recent economic stress affect our nation's ability to act as a peacemaker in the world?

Hamm: Should the United States respect Pakistani sovereignty and not pursue al Qaeda terrorists who maintain bases there, or should we ignore their borders and pursue our enemies like we did in Cambodia during the Vietnam War?

How can we apply pressure to Russia for humanitarian issues in an effective manner without starting another Cold War?

Shirey: Senator, as a retired Navy chief, my thoughts are often with those who serve our country. I know both candidates, both of you, expressed support for Israel.

If, despite your best diplomatic efforts, Iran attacks Israel, would you be willing to commit U.S. troops in support and defense of Israel? Or would you wait on approval from the U.N. Security Council?

She says, "What don't you know and how will you learn it?"

Not many social issues, but then we were in a financial crisis. Let us see what questions are selected this time.
 

Cloudy

Banned
Yeah it's pretty universal. He just straight up took himself completely out of the game.

No. The point is that people are just repeating what they heard somewhere. He was passive but I don't believe he "didn't want to be there". My biggest issue with his performance was not responding to the $718 million lie that Mitt kept repeating. Besides that, I thought he was pretty strong on Healthcare. Then again, I wasn't watching only for style and aggressiveness..
 
It amazes me how in discussing the debates people will practically use the exact same word: "He looked tired and as if he didn't want to be there." Granted, there is some truth to that depiction, but it is odd to see it taken as such gospel and repeated ad nauseam. Ah well, maybe the expectations game will be in Obama's favor.

This is actually not what I took away from the debate. Then again, I watched it on the internet so I didn't see the split-screens where Obama was constantly facing down when not speaking.

He just seemed dead-set on trying to keep the game "clean" and make his case rather than attacking Romney. He got in trouble because Romney suddenly had similar ideas as him so the contrast wasn't there. And off course, in regards to style: Romney killed it, while Obama uh... he...well, let me be clear... he... stuttered... along.. as he..often... does.

But I can't echo the "tired" and "didn't wanna be there" criticism.
 

Diablos

Member
No. The point is that people are just repeating what they heard somewhere. He was passive but I don't believe he "didn't want to be there". My biggest issue with his performance was not responding to the $718 million lie that Mitt kept repeating.
And allowing Mitt to get away with murder on the one issue that should have been a freebie: Obamacare. Remember, Mitt was supposed to have zero credibility with voters the moment Obama passed that if he were to get the nom, or that's what most people thought at least.

Mitt instead owned it.
 

Cloudy

Banned
And allowing Mitt to get away with murder on the one issue that should have been a freebie: Obamacare. Remember, Mitt was supposed to have zero credibility with voters the moment Obama passed that if he were to get the nom, or that's what most people thought at least.

Mitt instead owned it.

I'm sure they've focus-grouped it and Obamacare as a package doesn't do well. I think he was trying to explain it without doing a full-throated defense. I'm not sure that can be done effectively
 

Jimothy

Member
From that I found this pretty funny:

25402297.jpg

This is essentially how all conservatives debate. They spew so much bullshit and logical fallacies it's impossible to refute it all, so they "win" a lot of the time. I've run into this with Republican friends and family and it's infuriating.
 
And allowing Mitt to get away with murder on the one issue that should have been a freebie: Obamacare. Remember, Mitt was supposed to have zero credibility with voters the moment Obama passed that if he were to get the nom, or that's what most people thought at least.

Mitt instead owned it.

I think the polls taken after the debate showed that Obama handled the healthcare subject better than Romney.
 

Cloudy

Banned
He just seemed dead-set on trying to keep the game "clean" and make his case rather than attacking Romney

Yup. Folks say he wasn't looking at Romney but he was trying to ignore Romney and appeal to the viewers at home. Just bad strategy when your opponent is being so aggressive while spewing falsehoods all over the place. Still not worthy of the reviews he's been getting IMO. Especially when Romney lied so much
 

Diablos

Member
Well, we can talk about how one perceives the debate as we have for what feels like eons now, but it all comes down to style over substance unless you happen to be politically savvy (even if only by a minimal amount).

Mitt won, Obama lost in what was probably his worst political performance I've seen to date. Now Obama has to make a comeback or all bets are off. We can go through all the details about him looking down, looking tired, not caring, etc. But really it just boils down to that. Outside of more polling there's not much else left to say.

You've gotta admit, this time last week we were all feeling a bit better about things overall in this race.
 

teh_pwn

"Saturated fat causes heart disease as much as Brawndo is what plants crave."
The debate didn't help Romney enough even if we had the election tomorrow.

Now that Romney has sort of thrown his platform under the bus on national TV in front of tens of millions, Obama has time to create an argument to expose it. Ads can show clips of Romney contradicting himself. By election day you have polls return prior to the debate, unless the media is completely worthless.
 

XenodudeX

Junior Member
The debate didn't help Romney enough even if we had the election tomorrow.

Now that Romney has sort of thrown his platform under the bus on national TV in front of tens of millions, Obama has time to create an argument to expose it. Ads can show clips of Romney contradicting himself. By election day you have polls return prior to the debate, unless the media is completely worthless.

You might want to sit down for this..
 

Diablos

Member
The debate didn't help Romney enough even if we had the election tomorrow.

Now that Romney has sort of thrown his platform under the bus on national TV in front of tens of millions, Obama has time to create an argument to expose it. Ads can show clips of Romney contradicting himself. By election day you have polls return prior to the debate, unless the media is completely worthless.
The msm wants a close race. Period.

But I hear you, if team Obama gets their shit together with ads again, they can make some compelling stuff. They certainly are looking good with all the money they just brought in.
 

Aylinato

Member
Well, we can talk about how one perceives the debate as we have for what feels like eons now, but it all comes down to style over substance unless you happen to be politically savvy (even if only by a minimal amount).

Mitt won, Obama lost in what was probably his worst political performance I've seen to date. Now Obama has to make a comeback or all bets are off. We can go through all the details about him looking down, looking tired, not caring, etc. But really it just boils down to that. Outside of more polling there's not much else left to say.

You've gotta admit, this time last week we were all feeling a bit better about things overall in this race.

Lol, I feel better now about Obama's chances now than before the debate. No one could listen to all of Romney's bullshit, and all everyone has been talking about is big bird. So even though Romney "won" in terms of looking like he won(negligible + polls in his favor, 1-2 pts) he still lost overall in his message. He is now the candidate looking to destroy Big Bird because 0.012 of the budget is such a burden on the federal government that it has to be eliminated because the military needs more money and the rich need more tax breaks. Yeah, Romney sure did lose overall.
 
Well, we can talk about how one perceives the debate as we have for what feels like eons now, but it all comes down to style over substance unless you happen to be politically savvy (even if only by a minimal amount).

Mitt won, Obama lost in what was probably his worst political performance I've seen to date. Now Obama has to make a comeback or all bets are off. We can go through all the details about him looking down, looking tired, not caring, etc. But really it just boils down to that. Outside of more polling there's not much else left to say.

You've gotta admit, this time last week we were all feeling a bit better about things overall in this race.

Yet you're still churning out panic-induced posts. It's quite amazing.

As to your last point, I actually feel better about Obama's chances than before the debate. UE below 8%, Obama approval higher than disapproval, stronger jobs growth than expected in July and August (wouldn't be surprised to see September revised upward), running even – and sometimes better – than Romney on better equipped to handle the economy, and there's less than a month left.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Speaking of fundraising..

I'm wondering if Obama will have more money than he needs, enabling him to do another infomercial before Election Day. Being able to make a carefully-targeted (aimed at certain voting groups/geographies) closing argument couldn't hurt.
 

Diablos

Member
Yet you're still churning out panic-induced posts. It's quite amazing.

As to your last point, I actually feel better about Obama's chances than before the debate. UE below 8%, Obama approval higher than disapproval, stronger jobs growth than expected in July and August (wouldn't be surprised to see September revised upward), running even – and sometimes better – than Romney on better equipped to handle the economy, and there's less than a month left.
It's panic mixed with disappointment. More than anything, as I calm down a bit, I'm just mad at the President. Jon Stewart hit the nail on the head. All year Obama says he can't do this without us, he needs us, give us money, join the fight, volunteer, give us more money, I can't do this alone. So we do, and that's how he represents us after a year plus of him wanting us to join the cause? It's sobering, to say the least.

The UE numbers should give Obama a shot in the arm, hopefully Biden can pull something out (I happen to think he will, and for quite some time now I've just had a gut feeling he's gonna have a blast).
 

Cloudy

Banned
Speaking of fundraising..

I'm wondering if Obama will have more money than he needs, enabling him to do another infomercial before Election Day. Being able to make a carefully-targeted (aimed at certain voting groups/geographies) closing argument couldn't hurt.

They bought the time already
 

Loudninja

Member
Well, we can talk about how one perceives the debate as we have for what feels like eons now, but it all comes down to style over substance unless you happen to be politically savvy (even if only by a minimal amount).

Mitt won, Obama lost in what was probably his worst political performance I've seen to date. Now Obama has to make a comeback or all bets are off. We can go through all the details about him looking down, looking tired, not caring, etc. But really it just boils down to that. Outside of more polling there's not much else left to say.

You've gotta admit, this time last week we were all feeling a bit better about things overall in this race.
We nothing,I feel the same as I did before the debates.

Romney lost 2 major arguments on Friday, its actually got worst for him.
 
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