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[metalslimer]

Democrats. Definitely. Just look at this thread. It's as if no one even considers Obama might lose

.

We're a very bad group to look at for a realistic view of most of them considering how much polling go through here. The democrats here Romney up by 6 on Gallup and freak the fuck out.

 

[AniHawk]

CNN just did an article on this:



http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/18/politics/early-voting-status-check/index.html

Iowa had about 1.5 million voters in 2008, and these figures may or may not include early voting in person. They certainly don't include ballots that have been filled out and not yet mailed or that are in the mail -- and early voting is happening FAST this year. So 34% doesn't seem utterly impossible. They can't measure how many Obama vs. Romney votes have been cast, only the partisan affiliation -- but Iowa's a swing state, so that's not a very reliable benchmark. I dunno, if it's really a bad poll, then we should see some more polls that say they're bad soon enough, but it doesn't seem impossible to me.

thanks. looks like there really is a 20-point difference between the two.

I'm not entirely sure about the reliability of my logic here, but I did a little research and I believe what the National Review article is referring to is the 284,000 ballots already cast, in comparison to the 1.5 million votes cast in 2008, which results in approximately 18%. That's actually correct, as far as I can tell. However, there's a huge caveat here: more than 463,000 people have requested ballots, which is more like 30% of the 2008 total. The party breakdown of these requested ballots is 45% Democrat and 30% Republican. Assuming all those ballots are returned, that's a distinct advantage here.

Of course, I think that we should be skeptical of Marist/NBC as a true representation of the eventual outcome, just as we should be skeptical of all individual polls. What the National Review should be more worried about is the fact that 538 gives Obama a 73.5% chance of winning Iowa.

i seem to remember people calling marist a garbage poll a week or two ago. ppp seems to be the gold standard, and obama's comparatively down there (although we don't know by how much).

hopefully they provide breakdown numbers between early voters like marist did, although i have no reason to expect they won't.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Democrats. Definitely. Just look at this thread. It's as if no one even considers Obama might lose.

Oh, I think he could lose but the state polling is good for him thus far.

As for the others...Hopium is a helluva drug.

 

[speculawyer]

Trolling on TV . . . two trolls in one video.

First Whoopie trolls Ann Romney then Lawrence O'Donnell trolls Tagg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49472310


And I thought I've been getting a little testy at times.

 

[AniHawk]

.

We're a very bad group to look at for a realistic view of most of them considering how much polling go through here. The democrats here Romney up by 6 on Gallup and freak the fuck out.

well initially, but now it's taken on more of a 'oh what the fuck, gallup.'

 

[Forever]

Democrats. Definitely. Just look at this thread. It's as if no one even considers Obama might lose.

Democrats just lack any state of mind besides confidence and suicidal panic.

We can quantify our level of panic or confidence based on the 538 forecast.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Anyway, one way or the other, this is the last hits of Hopium.

On November 7th, the reserves will be gone.

For good.

Cuomopium is the next hotness for you Dems.

 

[AniHawk]

Anyway, one way or the other, this is the last hits of Hopium.

On November 7th, the reserves will be gone.

For good.

Cuomopium is the next hotness for you Dems.

2016: jeb vs hillary

 

[speculawyer]

The Libya situation also requires way too much in-depth knowledge before you even know what's being argued about. When me and my Dad were watching the debate, after the Libya exchange he asked me "What difference were they even arguing over?" You have to know who Susan Rice is, what she was saying on talk shows many weeks ago, what the intelligence community initially believed, and such.

I totally agree with this. I was an avid follower of the Libya story during the fighting (go see my posts in that thread) and I've somewhat followed on the after-action. But I have no idea what the right-wing has been going on about. I guess because I don't follow right-wing media, I just follow mainstream stuff like AP, BBC, NPR and some left-opinion stuff.

So unless you are follow the right-wing media (which means you are already voting for Romney), people had no clue what Romney was yammering about. But everyone saw Romney get smacked-down. It was a huge loss for him.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

2016: jeb vs hillary

Bush vs. Clinton: The Remix

 

[RustyNails]

Oh, I think he could lose but the state polling is good for him thus far.

As for the others...Hopium is a helluva drug.

I'd say the hopium addicts and chicken littles are evenly divided here.

I'm becoming slightly disinterested with the FP debate, even though I'm more interested in that than economy. Romney has pre-cooked answers on everything. China: Currency manipulating evil doers and Obama's fault. I will point a finger at them and they will cry. Iran: omgwtfbbgq NUCLEAR BAMB! what is obama doing, why is he enabling turrists to build nukes????Israel: Obama partied with Jayz while poor bibi was left alone in the whitehouse. Why does Obama hate israel? Arab spring (syria, libya): obama leading from behind therefore all his fault. Military: obama wants sequestration cuts to destroy america from within.

blah blah. I hope bob schieffer is smart enough than this, but I highly doubt.

 

[speculawyer]

I am surprised that neither candidate, but especially Romney, harped on all of China's human rights violations. He talked about currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, etc, but not their egregious dedication to exploitation? Come on, now.

Sadly . . . . we don't give a shit. I doubt that comes up on Monday as well.

 

[speculawyer]

And you're right, there will be plenty of people who claim voter fraud

Not voter fraud. Electoral stupidity. They'll go nuts over winning the most votes but losing the election.

 

[Ecotic]

Anyway, one way or the other, this is the last hits of Hopium.

On November 7th, the reserves will be gone.

For good.

Cuomopium is the next hotness for you Dems.

Nooo man, November 7th is when the fun actually starts! I've been waiting forever to enjoy Obama's second term; to enjoy our national politics with any concern as to whether the past four years will be all for naught or whether Obama gets to ride out the recovery and go down as a near-great (great?) President.

You're right though, 2016 will be on hell of a ride. Winning two Presidential terms is the holy grail for any one man, but one party winning 3 times in a row is so much more difficult.

 

[Cloudy]

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood

Top GOP pollster on Gallup's 7-pt Romney lead nationally among likely voters: "There is nothing I am looking at that resembles that data."

Heh...

 

[Puddles]

Now at $6.21 a share... Did unskewedpolls.com just update within the past 30 minutes? I don't understand how the Romney fans on Intrade make their decisions to buy shares. "Romney is getting crushed in the polls? Let's buy more!"

I'm just hoping this low price holds up for five more days.

 

[Black Mamba]

Trolling on TV . . . two trolls in one video.

First Whoopie trolls Ann Romney then Lawrence O'Donnell trolls Tagg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49472310


And I thought I've been getting a little testy at times.

that was a bit over the top...

 

[Lost Fragment]

Yeah I hope Hilary doesn't run for 2016. I'm already weirded out enough that 2 Bushes won the presidency.

It would be better than if Jeb ran and won though. Holy fuck.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Nooo man, November 7th is when the fun actually starts! I've been waiting forever to enjoy Obama's second term; to enjoy our national politics with any concern as to whether the past four years will be all for naught or whether Obama gets to ride out the recovery and go down as a near-great (great?) President.

You're right though, 2016 will be on hell of a ride. Winning two Presidential terms is the holy grail for any one man, but one party winning 3 times in a row is so much more difficult.

Reagan and Bush won that shit with ease.

 

[Fox318]

2016: jeb vs hillary

Cuomo vs Christie

Christie loses by insane margin because of a huge gaf.

 

[NullPointer]

Trolling on TV . . . two trolls in one video.

First Whoopie trolls Ann Romney then Lawrence O'Donnell trolls Tagg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49472310


And I thought I've been getting a little testy at times.

HOLY. SHIT.

Thats uh... Cable news nowadays? Wow.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Winning two Presidential terms is the holy grail for any one man, but one party winning 3 times in a row is so much more difficult.

the GOP was essentially one Nixon pardon away from winning 6 consecutive presidential elections, 4 of them in historic or near-historic landslides

 

[Ecotic]

Reagan and Bush won that shit with ease.

Yeah but Nixon didn't, Humphrey didn't, Gore didn't, Ford didn't. One party winning 3 times in a row is normally hard unless you just throw the election like Dukakis. You're fighting against the natural desire for change.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Watching the Alfred E. Smith dinner:

That Emcee was great, Romney was pretty damn funny at some points, I was laughing at loud pretty hard. Waiting for Obama to come up now...

 

[ryutaro's mama]

the GOP was essentially one Nixon pardon away from winning 6 consecutive presidential elections, 4 of them in historic or near-historic landslides

Spiro Agnew should've said, "FUCK THE HATERS" and taken the Presidency.

YOU CAN'T IMPEACH ALL OF US, BITCHES!!!

I WANNA SEE THE RECEIPTS!

 

[PhoenixDark]

last election they talked about the economy too


hard to decide who i want to see winning most
duckworth or warren or graves
maybe hirono, but looks like she's safe there

They had to talk about the economy though, because we were in the middle of an economic crash; they wound up discussing bailout legislation that had just been introduced. Since nothing like that is happening now, I'd imagine this debate will focus entirely on foreign policy. I suppose there could be a DADT question but that's the only social issue that might come up

It's disappointing because there was very very little health care discussion in the first two debates, and of course no discussion of gay rights. And imo even the abortion discussion seemed reserved.

 

[speculawyer]

Watching the Alfred E. Smith dinner:

That Emcee was great, Romney was pretty damn funny at some points, I was laughing at loud pretty hard. Waiting for Obama to come up now...

Romney had better material Obama had better delivery. Obama got kinda put in a bad spot because because Romney had already stepped on a couple of his jokes with the same type of punchline.

 

[pigeon]

Romney had better material Obama had better delivery. Obama got kinda put in a bad spot because because Romney had already stepped on a couple of his jokes with the same type of punchline.

Obama had the single best joke of the night, though. "Unemployment is now at its lowest rate since I took office at 7.8 percent. I don't have a joke here, I just thought it would be helpful to remind everybody that unemployment is now at its lowest rate since I took office at 7.8 percent."

The repetition of the whole line once people are already laughing is what makes it gold.

 

[Ecotic]

the GOP was essentially one Nixon pardon away from winning 6 consecutive presidential elections, 4 of them in historic or near-historic landslides

Whoa, hold on now, you're not looking at this situation dynamically. If Ford had won re-election then the business cycle that partly did Carter in would have hit Ford and Reagan would have never happened, and therefore President George H.W. Bush wouldn't have happened.

If I could redo any modern election, it would either be Humphrey winning in '68 or Ford winning in '76. Either one possibly could have stopped the modern Reagan inspired conservative movement as we know it. Or at least changed it. "There is no Soviet Domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford Administration." Thanks Gerry, I've never seen America get fucked over so much in 5 seconds.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Obama played it a lot more safe than Romney, which works well for me. I enjoy the self-deprecating humor.

Romney seemed a bit funnier overall, but Obama's cracks seemed deeper, almost like not everyone understood them, even though they were both funny and relevant.

and Romney definitely had the benefit of being first. It would suck to have a lot of your material ruined.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

If Nixon had the benefit of Fox News, no fucking way he would have resigned.

 

[Red Blaster]

If Lee Atwater was alive in 92 then the chances of HW getting a 2nd term go way up

 

[ryutaro's mama]

If Lee Atwater was alive in 92 then the chances of HW getting a 2nd term go way up

If HW had let Stormin' Norman roll into Baghdad, his chances at a second term go way up.

 

[pigeon]

and Romney definitely had the benefit of being first. It would suck to have a lot of your material ruined.

One of my favorite George Burns stories concerns Jessel and Cantor waiting backstage at a dinner, both with a couple of jokes they plan to tell. They get to talking, as comedians do, and they share their stories with each other and give advice and say they're funny and all that.

Jessel happens to go first -- probably the same thing would've happened either way. He tells his two jokes. Then he says, "And before I introduce the next speaker, a man well-known for his ability to improvise, I'd like to share with you a couple of very funny stories I just heard...."

 

[AlteredBeast]

One of my favorite George Burns stories concerns Jessel and Cantor waiting backstage at a dinner, both with a couple of jokes they plan to tell. They get to talking, as comedians do, and they share their stories with each other and give advice and say they're funny and all that.

Jessel happens to go first -- probably the same thing would've happened either way. He tells his two jokes. Then he says, "And before I introduce the next speaker, a man well-known for his ability to improvise, I'd like to share with you a couple of very funny stories I just heard...."

Niceeeeeeeee.

If I were a comedian I would deliberately try to do this as much possible. Few things could be more satisfying, I think.

 

[Zzoram]

Obama's jokes about himself were much better than Romney's jokes about himself. Romney jabbed Obama more, and his jabs seemed to have more of a twinge of animosity than Obama's.

Both were funny.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Anyway, one way or the other, this is the last hits of Hopium.

On November 7th, the reserves will be gone.

For good.

Cuomopium is the next hotness for you Dems.

Cuomo is the dem Romney. No thanks.

Hillary 2016. I think she'll take 2013 completely off and get some much needed rest, perhaps even find romance. We'll know for sure if she releases a book near the 2014 elections, and perhaps does some campaigning.

She should be able to defeat Cuomo, who will have some hefty financial backing but IMO will turn off a lot of liberals and won't play well in early states.

Of course if she doesn't run than there will be some solid candidates like O'Malley and Schweitzer, but I'm not sure any of them will electrify the party like Obama has, or Hillary could.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Obama's jokes about himself were much better than Romney's jokes about himself. Romney jabbed Obama more, and his jabs seemed to have more of a twinge of animosity than Obama's.

Both were funny.

agreed about the actual biting nature of Romney's jabs, but Romney's self-deprecating stuff was a nice touch. I didn't think he had it in him and Obama has proved many times before that he does to poke fun at himself.

The dressing like we do at home had me laughing pretty hard, for example, while Obama's best lines for me were about Joe Biden and Paul Ryan.

 

[bananas]

Hillary 2016. I think she'll take 2013 completely off and get some much needed rest, perhaps even find romance.

 

[pigeon]

agreed about the actual biting nature of Romney's jabs, but Romney's self-deprecating stuff was a nice touch. I didn't think he had it in him and Obama has proved many times before that he does to poke fun at himself.

Apparently when Romney's not being super fake he's actually pretty good at joking about himself. There was that joke he told at a Massachusetts dinner that the Atlantic quoted a while back -- "I support traditional values. I think a marriage should be between a man and a woman and a woman and a woman." He just doesn't do it much any more, I guess. Politics.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Whoa, hold on now, you're not looking at this situation dynamically. If Ford had won re-election then the business cycle that partly did Carter in would have hit Ford and Reagan would have never happened, and therefore President George H.W. Bush wouldn't have happened.

If I could redo any modern election, it would either be Humphrey winning in '68 or Ford winning in '76. Either one possibly could have stopped the modern Reagan inspired conservative movement as we know it. Or at least changed it. "There is no Soviet Domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford Administration." Thanks Gerry, I've never seen America get fucked over so much in 5 seconds.

you people with your butterfly effects

 

[SmokeMaxX]

I'm just hoping this low price holds up for five more days.

Doubtful. Already back up to $6.25 and I can't see polls getting better for Romney. You should thank me for saying that; everytime I predict Obama prices going up, he goes down.

Yeah I hope Hilary doesn't run for 2016. I'm already weirded out enough that 2 Bushes won the presidency.

It would be better than if Jeb ran and won though. Holy fuck.

Hillary gets my vote for 2016. I'll be on Intrade several months in advance to put my money on her.

Poll from Rasmussen. I don't remember seeing it on here today, but I might have missed it. It's like 6 hours old or so.

Election 2012: North Carolina President North Carolina: Romney 52%, Obama 46%

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Cuomo is the dem Romney. No thanks.

Hillary 2016. I think she'll take 2013 completely off and get some much needed rest, perhaps even find romance. We'll know for sure if she releases a book near the 2014 elections, and perhaps does some campaigning.

She should be able to defeat Cuomo, who will have some hefty financial backing but IMO will turn off a lot of liberals and won't play well in early states.

Of course if she doesn't run than there will be some solid candidates like O'Malley and Schweitzer, but I'm not sure any of them will electrify the party like Obama has, or Hillary could.

Cuomo won't run if Clinton runs anyway.

 

[Vahagn]

the GOP was essentially one Nixon pardon away from winning 6 consecutive presidential elections, 4 of them in historic or near-historic landslides

This is true, but it can be reversed too. 92-2012

6 presidential elections (5 have already happened)

Democrats won the popular vote in 4 of the 5 (and the GOP one (Bush over Kerry) wouldn't have happened with an Al Gore victory)


Landslides in 96 and 2008. If Obama wins this, its the Dems winning the popular vote in 5 of the last 6 presidential elections.


In part because of two unusually gifted politicians (Clinton and Obama), but more importantly because of ever increasing Democratically favorable demographic shifts.

 

[rdrr gnr]

Trolling on TV . . . two trolls in one video.

First Whoopie trolls Ann Romney then Lawrence O'Donnell trolls Tagg.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755883/ns/msnbc-the_last_word/#49472310


And I thought I've been getting a little testy at times.

HOLY SHIT.

 

[Diablos]

Incognito: Thanks, sweetheart.

These polls are great news all around.

About OH early voting: To what extent can they toss it aside? What about people who already voted? Do you think there is any possible way they could figure out a way to invalidate some early votes because it doesn't meet their idea of what the original criteria (i.e. type of voter, times, dates, etc.)?

I wish they'd just back the fuck off, these people need to be put in cuffs by now. I'm not even kidding. This is getting ridiculous.

 

[Oblivion]

I was just gonna post that thing about Lawrence. :lol

Don't know how I feel about that though...

 

[speculawyer]

that was a bit over the top...

HOLY. SHIT.

Thats uh... Cable news nowadays? Wow.

HOLY SHIT.

Lawrence O'Donnell is not a big fan of Mitt Romney.

I love the way Lawrence goes into the Southie accent. It is very good.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Whoa, hold on now, you're not looking at this situation dynamically. If Ford had won re-election then the business cycle that partly did Carter in would have hit Ford and Reagan would have never happened, and therefore President George H.W. Bush wouldn't have happened.

If I could redo any modern election, it would either be Humphrey winning in '68 or Ford winning in '76. Either one possibly could have stopped the modern Reagan inspired conservative movement as we know it. Or at least changed it. "There is no Soviet Domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford Administration." Thanks Gerry, I've never seen America get fucked over so much in 5 seconds.

There's no guarantee of that, it's all hypothetical. Reagan was a great politician and was likely capable if winning without the economic issues, unless you're retconning the Iran hostage situation too

I'd be more interested in a scenario where RFK didn't die in 1968. He would have likely won the nomination, but there's no guarantee he would win the presidency.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

There's no guarantee of that, it's all hypothetical. Reagan was a great politician and was likely capable if winning without the economic issues, unless you're retconning the Iran hostage situation too

I'd be more interested in a scenario where RFK didn't die in 1968. He would have likely won the nomination, but there's no guarantee he would win the presidency.

Pssh...Does JFK get re-elected if Texas never happens?