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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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A

AniHawk

Member
metalslimer said:
They should have learned that after Obama won the first time. Bush winning reelection showed most Democrats that anything could happen no matter how terrible the other candidate was.
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as bad as things were four years ago, they're worse now. the tea party didn't exist as an entity, and the country is more divided in general on where to go. the people who didn't like the black guy who needed a teevee to talk gud now hate him for ruining the country. they've made gains in congress and believe the momentum is on their side, and more: think that everyone hates the president as much as they do.

there's also the matter of god- who i'm sure many of the most fervent anti-obama people have been praying to to have the guy removed from office. some republicans are going to have physically violent reactions. i'm sure some democrats did in 2004, but now we have youtube. so that'll be neat.
 
M

metalslimer

Member
B-Dubs said:
I think most republicans think it will be a landslide. My dad is almost convinced of this, I try to explain that he has a tough electoral map but he doesn't care. He is absolutely convinced Romney will win in an epic landslide.
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There definitely is a diffence in the way democrats and republicans perceive this election. The democrats I talk to seem to be scared as hell Romney is actually "in the lead" right now while Republicans I talk to seem to think Romney has a secure lead.

some republicans are going to have physically violent reactions.
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Man I hope not. I was so scared during Obama's inauguration that something terrible would happen.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Incognito said:
For diablo:

@fivethirtyeight: Obama had a strong day of polls in swing states today. He's up a fair bit in our forecast, to 70.4% from 65.7%. http://t.co/AVlagOjq

Love, nate
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Yup, today's state polling was great for O.

Curious to see how PPP's IA number looks like. As long as Obama is at 50/51% it would be good.

Interestingly, we have another reason why Obama isn't spending time on FL:
@fivethirtyeight
Pennsylvania has overtaken Florida on our list of tipping point states
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At this point, it is all Ohio, Ohio, Ohio. 46% on tipping point scale as the race is closer now. Don't expect Obama to spend any time in FL and NC till election day now.

Also, NBC/Marist had no early voting numbers from IA? wtf
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Mike M said:
Hmmmm... I think those so deep in their bubbles that they follow Unskewed Polls will probably be the most shocked by virtue of already being insulated against facts that contradict their world view. I'd like to think if something were to shift the balance toward Romney, PoliGAF would at least be cogniscent of the altered dynamic and an Obama loss wouldn't be a surprise so much as a crushing disappointment. Rank and file folks who don't hang on every poll tweet would probably be blindsided though...
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The flipside is- what happens if by some "act of God" Romney somehow wins with the margins that unskewedpolls are claiming? I think Poligaf would have to be shut down.
 
D

Drakeon

Member
metalslimer said:
There definitely is a diffence in the way democrats and republicans perceive this election. The democrats I talk to seem to be scared as hell Romney is actually "in the lead" right now while Republicans I talk to seem to think Romney has a secure lead.



Man I hope not. I was so scared during Obama's inauguration that something terrible would happen.
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Agreed. I don't think Democrats would be shocked so much as super fucking depressed. I expect Republicans to bitch about voter fraud a lot on November 7th if Obama does indeed pull it out.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
cartoon_soldier said:
Also, NBC/Marist had no early voting numbers from IA? wtf
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they did. i broke it down into real numbers using my impeccable math skills, because polls are always 100% accurate:

AniHawk said:
i'm trying to math using the marist iowa poll.

let's pretend turnout in iowa matches 2008 and is 1.2m

34% have voted, and 67% of those people voted for obama:

obama: 273,360
romney: 130,560
other: 4,080

11% plan to vote, and the break is 55-39% in favor of obama. so before election day that would mean:

obama: 72,600 | 345,960
romney: 51,480 | 182,040
other: 7,920 | 12,000

and then the 55% remaining breaks 54%-39% for romney:

obama: 257,400 | 603,360 | 50.28%
romney: 356,400 | 538,440 | 44.87%
other: 46,200 | 68,200 | 4-5%

the 6-7% in the people who haven't voted yet are probably undecided, if the remaining 50k-60k all broke for romney and didn't vote for a third party, he would still wind up 800 votes shy of a win.

the final result will probably be more like 2-3 points though.
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B

bananas

Banned
I don't know if this photo is real or not, but it certainly makes my brain hurt.

jRRfp.jpg
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I just really want this election to be fucking over with. It's just a long period where nothing gets done because they don't want to ruin their chances of election. Hopefully a few social issues are addressed in the early months of the next presidency.
 
B

border

Member
AniHawk said:
they did. i broke it down into real numbers using my impeccable math skills, because polls are always 100% accurate:
Click to expand...

I was just thinking about doing this, to get an idea of Romney's chances for victory in Iowa. Seems pretty slim, if not nonexistent. So he basically needs every undecided voter to pick him? And then some?
 
S

SmokeMaxX

Member
Just looked at the map again. Ugh California should close their polls early so Obama can be declared the winner fast. I think Obama should make a play for Virginia. If he secures that state, it's pretty much over. It looks like a coinflip over there and forcing Romney to defend it could play dividends. Romney has to attack like 4-5 states right now. Adding one more to it will make him bleed money especially considering how most of his money is in superPACs.
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Iowa and Wisconsin poll details:
  • The gender gap persists in both states: Obama holds a double-digit lead with women in Iowa (57 percent to 38 percent) and Wisconsin (57 percent to 39 percent), while Romney leads among men by single digits.
  • In both Iowa and Wisconsin, Obama’s job-approval rating among registered voters is at or near 50 percent among likely voters – 50 percent in Iowa and 49 percent in Wisconsin.
  • In both states, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating among registered voters improved from September – from 41 percent/47 percent to 46 percent/47 percent in Wisconsin, and from 40 percent/51 percent to 43 percent/51 percent in Iowa.
  • Also improving are attitudes about the nation’s direction. In Iowa, 48 percent of likely voters say the country is headed in the right direction, which is up five points from September. In Wisconsin, 45 percent believe it’s headed on the right track, up six points.
  • And in the competitive Senate contest in Wisconsin, the poll shows Democrat Tammy Baldwin leading Republican Tommy Thompson, 49 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.
Click to expand...
http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/...s-obama-holds-his-lead-in-iowa-wisconsin?lite
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Lost Fragment said:
I think a lot of republicans feel the same way democrats felt about the 2004 election. "Man, he's been so terrible. There's no way such a terrible president can be elected twice, right?'
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But I can't see how they feel he is so terrible.

OK . . . I'll grant the 7.8% unemployment is disappointing.

But:
-Stock market has doubled since the low
-Bin Laden is dead
-GM is alive
-Iraq war is over
-Domestic oil production is way up


OK . . . yeah, you hate abortion. Did Reagan, Bush1, or Bush2 fix that? No. Mitt won't either. So what exactly are you whining about? Gays in the military? Obama is black? People get healthcare? Get over it.
 
P

Puddles

Banned
SmokeMaxX said:
Glad I decided to buy Intrade stocks at $6.26. It's probably about to shoot up and that's the lowest price I was going to get considering I just got more funds in. Of course considering how the last 5 times I said that, Obama stock crashed...

Anyone know anything about the Iowa Electronic Market? It's a US prediction market- not sure why people don't use it instead of Intrade?
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I haven't looked at that Iowa site, but Intrade kind of sucks.

First they make you scan an id and two proofs of address.

Next, they won't allow you to make deposits using a debit card or bank routing information if you live in the U.S. You have to either make an international transfer (and pay the transfer fee) or send in a paper check (and pay for international delivery), which they hold for 10 business days (14 real days) before crediting to your account.

I have been working on this shit since September, and I won't be able to buy shares until next Wednesday, by which time I'd expect my margin to be cut in half. Easily one of the least customer-friendly sites I've ever experienced, and that's saying a lot.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Lost Fragment said:
I think a lot of republicans feel the same way democrats felt about the 2004 election. "Man, he's been so terrible. There's no way such a terrible president can be elected twice, right?'
Click to expand...
I was so dejected when Kerry lost that I entirely stopped paying attention to the political world for nearly two years. Luckily the handheld war between Sony and Nintendo provided an arena where I could be a partisan (and as a Nintendo fan I won! :^D)

When the 2006 election rolled around it almost seemed like a surprise that the Democrats had another chance to roll back the GOP. After 2004 it just felt like America was a conservative country and Republican control would go on forever.

Granted, I turned 18 in 2004 and I was far more impressionable then than I am now.


I can't even imagine how depressing it must have been to be a Dukakis supporter, haha.
 
P

Piecake

Member
speculawyer said:
But I can't see how they feel he is so terrible.

OK . . . I'll grant the 7.8% unemployment is disappointing.

But:
-Stock market has doubled since the low
-Bin Laden is dead
-GM is alive
-Iraq war is over
-Domestic oil production is way up


OK . . . yeah, you hate abortion. Did Reagan, Bush1, or Bush2 fix that? No. Mitt won't either. So what exactly are you whining about? Gays in the military? Obama is black? People get healthcare? Get over it.
Click to expand...

The Guberment takeover of healthcare. Well, not really, but in their minds Obama sure did. We cant have socialists running this country. Much worse than a president starting an unjustifiable war that cost us lives and trillions of dollars
 
L

Lost Fragment

Obsessed with 4chan
speculawyer said:
But I can't see how they feel he is so terrible.

OK . . . I'll grant the 7.8% unemployment is disappointing.

But:
-Stock market has doubled since the low
-Bin Laden is dead
-GM is alive
-Iraq war is over
-Domestic oil production is way up


OK . . . yeah, you hate abortion. Did Reagan, Bush1, or Bush2 fix that? No. Mitt won't either. So what exactly are you whining about? Gays in the military? Obama is black? People get healthcare? Get over it.
Click to expand...

I agree. But a lot of these people have probably been listening to the Fox News/right wing radio/etc spin machine make Obama out to be the antichrist for 4 years now.
 
B

border

Member
speculawyer said:
OK . . . yeah, you hate abortion. Did Reagan, Bush1, or Bush2 fix that? No. Mitt won't either. So what exactly are you whining about? Gays in the military? Obama is black? People get healthcare? Get over it.
Click to expand...

Gay marriage is probably a big problem for them. Even if they had some modicum of faith in Obama's ability in the economy, terrorism, and foreign policy they'd probably think Romney can do as good or better. Which would leave them voting on wedge social issues.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Piecake said:
The Guberment takeover of healthcare. Well, not really, but in their minds Obama sure did. We cant have socialists running this country. Much worse than a president starting an unjustifiable war that cost us lives and trillions of dollars
Click to expand...

Lost Fragment said:
I agree. But a lot of these people have probably been listening to the Fox News/right wing radio/etc spin machine make Obama out to be the antichrist for 4 years now.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I forget that rational thinking doesn't come to play into it.

It's just that if I flip things around . . . well, I didn't think Bush 1 was the worst ever. I did not vote for him but he wasn't offensively bad at all. (Bush 2 was offensively bad.)
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
70% on 538. Bad News For Michelle Obama

Ohio is over 70% now. Iowa too. Wisconsin over 80%. I think Florida dropped a bit for Romney. NC is a lean Romney state now, unfortunately.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
The post-DNC bounce got my hopes up for a NC win, but it looks like most of that was probably illusory, even without the effects of the first debate to account for. A lead of about 2% nationally is probably the most likely outcome. That seems like a very "natural" advantage for him, with the potential for more if early voting breaks heavily in his favor. I still think that Obama has a chance to sweep FL, VA, NV, and CO, but I'm going to go with the assumption that FL isn't going to fall. As things trend back toward Obama, I believe that he'll still win VA, NV, and CO in the end.
 
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