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[The Librarian]

Folks, the regressions have been run, and I was right.

Its statistically significant.

There is no greater correlation in this election than the shift in CA gas prices and the national poll numbers.

If you think you can find a more significant coefficient, then go ahead, run the regressions. You won't find one.

Behold the gas prices plotted against the Obama/Romney average national polls, courtesy of RCP

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y17/jamesinclair/Blog/obama.jpg[/IMG


I hate to say it but....

I was right, again.[/QUOTE]
You're a loony. Or a joke poster. Either way, you're being ridiculous.

 

[Cloudy]

What was Obama's job approval number?

It's not reported in the blaring "race tied" headline story so that makes me think it's above 47 lol

In their last poll it was 49-48

 

[Aaron Strife]

It's not reported in the blaring "race tied" headline story so that makes me think it's above 47 lol

In their last poll it was 49-48

They said it's 49% in a write-up.

 

[Stinkles]

Folks, the regressions have been run, and I was right.

Its statistically significant.

There is no greater correlation in this election than the shift in CA gas prices and the national poll numbers.

If you think you can find a more significant coefficient, then go ahead, run the regressions. You won't find one.

Behold the gas prices plotted against the Obama/Romney average national polls, courtesy of RCP

I hate to say it but....

I was right, again.

Hugely weird obsession.

 

[Cloudy]

They said it's 49% in a write-up.

Do you have a link? The MSNBC story doesn't seem to mention approval

 

[Y2Kev]

I ran the regression: the temperature in NY is well correlated with Obama's performance. September, one of the warmest on record. First and second week of October, temperature dropped into the 40s. Back to 60-70 since last debate, and Obama has ticked up. It's significant.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Do you have a link? The MSNBC story doesn't seem to mention approval

In the WSJ write-up it's there. No disapprove though

 

[jamesinclair]

I ran the regression: the temperature in NY is well correlated with Obama's performance. September, one of the warmest on record. First and second week of October, temperature dropped into the 40s. Back to 60-70 since last debate, and Obama has ticked up. It's significant.

Hows your R2 looking?

 

[Baraka in the White House]

I ran the regression: the temperature in NY is well correlated with Obama's performance. September, one of the warmest on record. First and second week of October, temperature dropped into the 40s. Back to 60-70 since last debate, and Obama has ticked up. It's significant.

Think you can find one more significant? RUN IT.

 

[The Librarian]

I just ran the numbers: CS and Diablos panic less the better Obama does.

Oh, wait, that makes sense.

 

[SteveWinwood]

PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 97% of these posts.

 

[Plinko]

Folks, the regressions have been run, and I was right.

Its statistically significant.

There is no greater correlation in this election than the shift in CA gas prices and the national poll numbers.

If you think you can find a more significant coefficient, then go ahead, run the regressions. You won't find one.

Behold the gas prices plotted against the Obama/Romney average national polls, courtesy of RCP

I hate to say it but....

I was right, again.

I'm a math guy and love statistics, but I'll gladly say this is purely a coincidence.

 

[Cloudy]

In the WSJ write-up it's there. No disapprove though

That is the previous poll

 

[Loudninja]

Romney Adviser: ‘Romnesia’ Line ‘Quite Silly’

"The very fact that the president has to utter a term like that just is a glaring example of how small the campaign is," Madden said. "The Obama campaign has not been one about the future. It hasn't been talking about what they'd do over the next four years to really help rebuild the economy. Instead, they have reduced themselves to very small attacks like 'Romnesia,' which is really quite frankly silly for the president of the United States, as the leader of the free world, to begin uttering."

Appearing with Madden, Stephanie Cutter, deputy manager for the Obama campaign, said "Romnesia" was "a playful term to describe what Mitt Romney's actually doing."

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-adviser-romnesia-line-quite-silly

 

[Y2Kev]

Hows your R2 looking?

Surprisingly good fit.

God, memories of econometrics. *shudder*

 

[apana]

Looks like Obama and Romney are still tied in the national polls. Obama can probably squeak through an electoral victory if that remains true by election day.

 

[giga]

Love this short piece by Krug: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/21/an-elite-obsession/

David Dayen makes a very good point, which I missed: during the Hofstra debate, in which questions were posed by members of the public rather than the Beltway elite, there wasn’t a single question about the deficit. Not one. The public really doesn’t care.

And you know what? Neither do financial markets, which continue to lend to the U.S. government at incredibly low rates.

Meanwhile, the results from austerity are in — and it’s now clear that the adverse economic impacts of austerity in a depressed economy are much worse than the elite imagined (although Keynesian economists knew better), and are in fact so severe that austerity is largely self-defeating, having little impact on the budget deficit even in the short run because reduced revenue takes away much of the initial savings. Once you take long-run effects into account, austerity is almost surely self-defeating.

Yet deficit fever, with demands for spending cuts right away, has dominated policy discussion for almost three years, with all the Very Serious People believing that by pounding on this issue they were demonstrating their Very Seriousness.

Surprisingly good fit.

God, memories of econometrics. *shudder*

Fuck that course, forever and always. I'm still scarred to this day.

 

[Hobbestetrician]

Romney Adviser: ‘Romnesia’ Line ‘Quite Silly’

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-adviser-romnesia-line-quite-silly

Just another slice of Obamaloney.

 

[786110]

So I go to gmail and see this

http://i.imgur.com/Scxj2.png

Poligaf everywhere

 

[Kusagari]

Romney Adviser: ‘Romnesia’ Line ‘Quite Silly’

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-adviser-romnesia-line-quite-silly

OBAMACARE

OBAMACARE

OBAMACARE

 

[Forever]

Salt Lake City Tribune endorses Obama.

lawl

Nowhere has Mitt Romney’s pursuit of the presidency been more warmly welcomed or closely followed than here in Utah. The Republican nominee’s political and religious pedigrees, his adeptly bipartisan governorship of a Democratic state, and his head for business and the bottom line all inspire admiration and hope in our largely Mormon, Republican, business-friendly state.

But it was Romney’s singular role in rescuing Utah’s organization of the 2002 Olympics from a cesspool of scandal, and his oversight of the most successful Winter Games on record, that make him the Beehive State’s favorite adopted son. After all, Romney managed to save the state from ignominy, turning the extravaganza into a showcase for the matchless landscapes, volunteerism and efficiency that told the world what is best and most beautiful about Utah and its people.

In short, this is the Mitt Romney we knew, or thought we knew, as one of us.

Sadly, it is not the only Romney, as his campaign for the White House has made abundantly clear, first in his servile courtship of the tea party in order to win the nomination, and now as the party’s shape-shifting nominee. From his embrace of the party’s radical right wing, to subsequent portrayals of himself as a moderate champion of the middle class, Romney has raised the most frequently asked question of the campaign: "Who is this guy, really, and what in the world does he truly believe?"

The evidence suggests no clear answer, or at least one that would survive Romney’s next speech or sound bite. Politicians routinely tailor their words to suit an audience. Romney, though, is shameless, lavishing vastly diverse audiences with words, any words, they would trade their votes to hear.

 

[jamesinclair]

Surprisingly good fit.

God, memories of econometrics. *shudder*

Lets get another week of data and then we can see who's the better fit.

But honestly, I expect a post from Nate on my numbers before Halloween.

 

[Black Republican]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

Under fire that his organization’s poll leans disproportionately Republican, Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport told Fox News Sunday that his group’s polling methodology is “extremely solid.”

Gallup has attracted controversy with its daily tracking poll of the presidential race. Among likely voters, the survey reported on Sunday that Romney held a 7-point lead, 52 percent to 45 percent, a much larger advantage than most other polls are reporting.

Newport said it’s “not unusual” to take criticism from people who don’t like the results – in this case, the Obama campaign itself has blasted the campaign for flawed methodology.

“People come at you from either side when they don’t like the results,” he said.

 

[B-Dubs]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

So I go to gmail and see this

http://i.imgur.com/Scxj2.png

Poligaf everywhere

Bad news for PoliGAF

 

[Kusagari]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

They defend them on Fox News?

Shock and Awe.

 

[AniHawk]

No OH or WI in that list surprisingly

they already broke for romney? nh, mi, and pa too from the sound of it.

 

[Y2Kev]

they already broke for romney? nh, mi, and pa too from the sound of it.

and ny and ca

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

We will know soon enough.

 

[Incognito]

Folks, the regressions have been run, and I was right.

Its statistically significant.

There is no greater correlation in this election than the shift in CA gas prices and the national poll numbers.

If you think you can find a more significant coefficient, then go ahead, run the regressions. You won't find one.

Behold the gas prices plotted against the Obama/Romney average national polls, courtesy of RCP

I hate to say it but....

I was right, again.

This is a solid and rigorous regression test. Im surprised nate silver or sam wang havent begun incorporating gas prices into their models yet. Although i suspect on the heels of this demonstration it wont be long before they reach out to you.

 

[TacticalFox88]

During his keynote speech at an election law symposium at University of Toledo on Friday, Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted (R) claimed two recent court decisions restoring early voting on the last three days before the election was “un-American.”

Yeah, if ANY Dem had said this, this would be ALL over the media. Mother of god, our rights are being shitted on and no one seems to give a fuck.

 

[AniHawk]

Yeah, if ANY Dem had said this, this would be ALL over the media. Mother of god, our rights are being shitted on and no one seems to give a fuck.

voting is unamerican. peace is war.

and ny and ca

i'll be in my car eating a whole thing of candy beans.

 

[Forever]

If I were president I'd Seal Team Six that motherfucker Husted.

How does Obama live with this bullshit goddamn.

 

[Y2Kev]

i'll be in my car eating a whole thing of candy beans.

I really think most of the honest media (so I can't understand why Todd is saying this) know that such an early voting lead is going to put the state out of reach.

 

[AniHawk]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

gallup wouldn't seem so fucking weird if the approval rating was also in the shitter, instead of hovering around 50% with a 3-point difference between favorable and unfavorable. hell, other polls actually have obama's favorables tied or have him slightly unfavorable and those polls are tied.

 

[Chumly]

Gallups been reading neogaf:
http://njour.nl/TJIg5F

Gallup Editor Defends Polls

LOL gallup. Seriously after the election everyone better be treating them like the joke they are.

 

[RDreamer]

I'm really disgusted at my hometown. Went home to family today, an I saw 4 different signs saying "Keep America Free, Fire Obama."

Smfh

 

[Kusagari]

gallup wouldn't seem so fucking weird if the approval rating was also in the shitter, instead of hovering around 50% with a 3-point difference between favorable and unfavorable. hell, other polls actually have obama's favorables tied or have him slightly unfavorable and those polls are tied.

I'd really like to see them explain how they can have the approval rating so high and yet have Romney pretty much blowing Obama out.

 

[HylianTom]

I'm really disgusted at my hometown. Went home to family today, an I saw 4 different signs saying "Keep America Free, Fire Obama."

Smfh

Just do what I do: think of the yummy tears.

So delicious. So nourishing. Mmmm.

 

[syllogism]

gallup wouldn't seem so fucking weird if the approval rating was also in the shitter, instead of hovering around 50% with a 3-point difference between favorable and unfavorable. hell, other polls actually have obama's favorables tied or have him slightly unfavorable and those polls are tied.

Approval is among all adults, it is pretty much irrelevant

 

[jamesinclair]

This is a solid and rigorous regression test. Im surprised nate silver or sam wang havent begun incorporating gas prices into their models yet. Although i suspect on the heels of this demonstration it wont be long before they reach out to you.

Its no surprise if you see who funds the media, they want to keep eyes averted.

Good news for Obama is as gas prices continue down, his numbers will rise.

However, if another refinery just so happens to get shut down on November 1 or 2....then you know its the oil industry making a power play.

 

[rSpooky]

I'm really disgusted at my hometown. Went home to family today, an I saw 4 different signs saying "Keep America Free, Fire Obama."

Smfh

That is just so stupid, same with those people saying that obama is destroying this nation.. How? No one i ever spoke was ever able to give me a cohearent explanation .

Edit. It usually ends with .."well i don't like him"..lol

 

[Particle Physicist]

Romney Adviser: ‘Romnesia’ Line ‘Quite Silly’

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/romney-adviser-romnesia-line-quite-silly

lol, says the campaign that created 'obamaloney'

 

[Cloudy]

Approval is among all adults, it is pretty much irrelevant

Isn't it all adults who are RV?

 

[Zaraki_Kenpachi]

.

 

[Diablos]

"The very fact that the president has to utter a term like that just is a glaring example of how small the campaign is," Madden said. "The Obama campaign has not been one about the future."

Meanwhile, Mitt sees multiple futures and addresses them simultaneously! What a guy. He's really looking out for me!

 

[AlteredBeast]

PollGAF |OT4| PhoenixDark Enshrined in the Annals of Time

or

PollGAF |OT4| Seriously, it's all we will talk about until November 7th...

 

[Diablos]

PollGAF |OT4| Binders Full of Panic

 

[Owzers]

Meanwhile, Mitt sees multiple futures and addresses them simultaneously! What a guy. He's really looking out for me!

Obama campaign talks about Romnesia

Romney campaign talks about the Obama campaign talking about Romnesia. That is some bold leadership.

 

[Aaron Strife]

PollGAF |OT4| 100% agree the polls are skewed with a 1% margin of error

That is just so stupid, same with those people saying that obama is destroying this nation.. How? No one i ever spoke was ever able to give me a cohearent explanation .

Edit. It usually ends with .."well i don't like him"..lol

I like my grandma's belief that if Obama gets re-elected he'll force everyone to convert to Islam.

No, these first four years were a ruse. If he gets re-elected by even one vote THEN you'll see his diabolical plan the whole time!

The awesome thing is, in four years when he's leaving office and the world hasn't fucking exploded, no one will admit that he wasn't as bad as they feared, no, it's just thanks to brave souls like Michele Bachmann and Allen West for stopping that commie before it was too late! While they set their sights on Hillary Clinton (who my grandmother is also a big fan of, which will be funny when Fox News starts trash-talking her. Wonder who she'll believe at that point).

 

[The Librarian]

Its no surprise if you see who funds the media, they want to keep eyes averted.

Good news for Obama is as gas prices continue down, his numbers will rise.

However, if another refinery just so happens to get shut down on November 1 or 2....then you know its the oil industry making a power play.

Or you're just being weird.