PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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McCain led huge among absentee voters in Florida in 2008. Obama's pre-election day strength came from in-person early voting.

This year the absentee ballots are closer than they were in 2008.

Was that part of McCain's push in 2008, though?

All the polling data in 2008 leading up to week of the election had Obama up 2% to 5%. Now this election, it is showing a tie. Different election and circumstances.
 
Frankly, I'm still just hoping for the Castro assassination October surprise leak. Otherwise I'm putting Florida down as a recount state.
 
I really trust 538 when it comes down to it.

Lets look at his predictions in 2008 right before the election:

2008election_zps6af13c17.png


Compared to the results of the election:

2008electionresults_zps5fe94a01.png


The only state he got wrong was Indiana that went Obama and not McCain.

Here are his predictions as of now:

Capture_zps191a12b7.png


Seriously it's going to be difficult for Romney to win...
 
All that really suggests is what I believed from the start. Florida was never "lost" or "hopeless", but it's just not worth worrying about.

Whoever wins the state will likely win by less than 1% and it might not be called for days.

Worrying about the midwest firewall is more important to assure victory.
 
The main reason 1st debate changed things was people looked at Romney and went gosh darn he could be president.

Pretty much, but that was always going to happen.

Frankly, I'm still just hoping for the Castro assassination October surprise leak. Otherwise I'm putting Florida down as a recount state.

My money is on the Iran thing being the surprise, no way in hell Romney has a good answer for it. He either has to say he'd go to war regardless or say the president is doing this exactly right. Either way he loses.
 
Man Romney is having a great polling day. Crazy how second debate changed nothing
Florida (+2.1 Romney average)
+1 Romney (PPP)

National (tie average)
Tie (NBC/WSJ)
+1 Obama (Reuters/Ipsos)
+2 Romney (Ras)
+7 Romney (Gallup)

JenniferlawrenceOK.gif
 
Ahahahaha what a ridiculous poll but I'll take it I guess

I agree- Obama gained almost 4 points in 1 day. Seems unlikely.

The interesting Gallup number from today is Romney up 3 with RV. That has to be close to his largest lead in RV's.
 
There's one benefit to New Hampshire being as stubborn as it has been: if the East Coast polls close and it's called for Obama pretty quickly, that'll probably be a good barometer for how the rest of the night will go.
 
So we will discredit Gallup but proclaim a poll that shows Romney with a mere 1 point lead in the south great? Both polls are shit, from opposite ends.
 
I agree- Obama gained almost 4 points in 1 day. Seems unlikely.

The interesting Gallup number from today is Romney up 3 with RV. That has to be close to his largest lead in RV's.

At this point Gallup is the hugest outlier among all of the polls, most of which showing a 1 or 2 point race in either direction. It is just a weird thing to be seeing, I mean what the hell?
 
Interesting NPR article..

Since July, undecided voters have been "as a whole breaking for Obama," Vavreck says.

"About 60 percent of undecided voters are women," she says, "and women undecided voters who have made up their minds are breaking heavily for the president — 75 percent for Obama, 25 percent for Romney."

In key swing states — Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado — the number of undecided voters comes out to about 900,000 people.

As former Clinton White House adviser Paul Begala called it, "The American president will be selected by fewer than half the number of people who paid to get into a Houston Astros home game last year."

http://www.npr.org/2012/10/20/163309696/the-undecided-voter-just-like-the-unicorn
 
With Gallup, I remember how Obama was still holding steady after the first debate while he was tanking in all other polls. Maybe it's just a lagging poll? His approval ticked up the same time Romney ticked up in RV.
 
With Gallup, I remember how Obama was still holding steady after the first debate while he was tanking in all other polls. Maybe it's just a lagging poll? His approval ticked up the same time Romney ticked up in RV.

It's been too long for that to be the case.
 
So Obama gaining four points in one day is unlikely....but Romney gaining 3 is taken at face value? :p

Err..pretty sure Romney did not gain 4 points in 1 day on Gallup. Not sure what you are talking about.
 
Gallup will either be right or very wrong, not much to discuss. Ultimately their poll will ensure voter fraud charges on November 7th, if Obama wins. The only question is who exactly jumps on. If it's just Rush and company, who cares. But I expect Fox and mainstream elected republicans to complain in full force, citing that poll. It's unlikely Obama will gain in the south enough to change Gallup's numbers.
 
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