AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Was that part of McCain's push in 2008, though?
All the polling data in 2008 leading up to week of the election had Obama up 2% to 5%. Now this election, it is showing a tie. Different election and circumstances.
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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.
- Thread starter Amir0x
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Was that part of McCain's push in 2008, though?
All the polling data in 2008 leading up to week of the election had Obama up 2% to 5%. Now this election, it is showing a tie. Different election and circumstances.
cartoon_soldier
Member
If I remember Florida polls were also very inconclusive too.
cartoon_soldier
Member
The main reason 1st debate changed things was people looked at Romney and went gosh darn he could be president.
I really trust 538 when it comes down to it.
Lets look at his predictions in 2008 right before the election:
Compared to the results of the election:
The only state he got wrong was Indiana that went Obama and not McCain.
Here are his predictions as of now:
Seriously it's going to be difficult for Romney to win...
Lets look at his predictions in 2008 right before the election:
Compared to the results of the election:
The only state he got wrong was Indiana that went Obama and not McCain.
Here are his predictions as of now:
Seriously it's going to be difficult for Romney to win...
All that really suggests is what I believed from the start. Florida was never "lost" or "hopeless", but it's just not worth worrying about.
Whoever wins the state will likely win by less than 1% and it might not be called for days.
Worrying about the midwest firewall is more important to assure victory.
Whoever wins the state will likely win by less than 1% and it might not be called for days.
Worrying about the midwest firewall is more important to assure victory.
Pretty much, but that was always going to happen.
My money is on the Iran thing being the surprise, no way in hell Romney has a good answer for it. He either has to say he'd go to war regardless or say the president is doing this exactly right. Either way he loses.
Good stuff.
This guy was better than 538 in 2008 and only missed 1 EV (NE district)
http://election.princeton.edu/
2008 Results are on the left menu
I am so tired of this warmongering fuck. He needs to shut the hell up.
Exactly, the current president just doesn't seem "right" to them
Florida (+2.1 Romney average)
+1 Romney (PPP)
National (tie average)
Tie (NBC/WSJ)
+1 Obama (Reuters/Ipsos)
+2 Romney (Ras)
+7 Romney (Gallup)
JenniferlawrenceOK.gif
His model doesn't look at national numbers AT ALL
Well, that's probably correct, frankly.
IBD tracking with a huge Obama gain
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Right. The only times national numbers should even be taken into account is some sort of wildfire sweeping movement. Other than that, state-by-state is the only thing that matters.
That poll is just as sketchy as Gallup LV IMO. Obama down by 1 in the South? Right...
CaptainSchwann
Member
More good Romney Polls
Gallup and IBD cancel each other out. The national vote isn't far skewed to either candidate.
Very much so.
Considering what Gallup looks like I can't blame him for just doing state polls. National ones have been swinging wildly while the state polls have been mostly static.
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
LOL! Sorry, when the south only shows Romney as a one-point favorite, you know the poll would only be good for one thing, and even then only if it were printed out on soft paper.
Ahahahaha what a ridiculous poll but I'll take it I guess
But the Gallups.
(That spread in the south is as likely as Gallup's LV/RV spread.)
(8% is too high a share of undecideds at this point - push your leaners, pollsters!)
I agree- Obama gained almost 4 points in 1 day. Seems unlikely.
The interesting Gallup number from today is Romney up 3 with RV. That has to be close to his largest lead in RV's.
Where? What was the atmosphere like?
CaptainSchwann
Member
If Obama wins Gallups credibility is going to take a serious hit if its still showing R+7
Show me one poster who declared that IBD poll great.
At this point Gallup is the hugest outlier among all of the polls, most of which showing a 1 or 2 point race in either direction. It is just a weird thing to be seeing, I mean what the hell?
D'oh misread.
speculawyer
Member
Uh . . . isn't "demanding" a form of talking?
Who said it was great?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I am sure that schuelma was being facetious.
I liked your less polite version of this post better.
Interesting NPR article..
http://www.npr.org/2012/10/20/163309696/the-undecided-voter-just-like-the-unicorn
http://www.npr.org/2012/10/20/163309696/the-undecided-voter-just-like-the-unicorn
speculawyer
Member
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
I wonder if Gallup is polling enough cell phones? It just seems odd, almost as if they are only reaching older white people or something.
It's been too long for that to be the case.
So Obama gaining four points in one day is unlikely....but Romney gaining 3 is taken at face value?
Err..pretty sure Romney did not gain 4 points in 1 day on Gallup. Not sure what you are talking about.
Washington state, so it doesn't really matter. In my county, not sure if the whole state is like this, but it is pretty much all mail in. So I will ship it off tomorrow morning to the elections office.
I misread your post, I thought it said Romney gained three today. My bad.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Gallup will either be right or very wrong, not much to discuss. Ultimately their poll will ensure voter fraud charges on November 7th, if Obama wins. The only question is who exactly jumps on. If it's just Rush and company, who cares. But I expect Fox and mainstream elected republicans to complain in full force, citing that poll. It's unlikely Obama will gain in the south enough to change Gallup's numbers.
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