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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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I think it will work.

It didn't work in 2008 because people didn't want a mature, know the beltway type candidate. They wanted someone fresh.

After 8 years everybody seems to want to turn back to the 90s, who better to represent that?
In 2008 we were also coming off of the Bush presidency, which ended us with us being balls deep in a recession, exploding deficits and two wars. And the "experienced maverick" John McCain championed all of these policies.

If it's 2016 and it's good times, well Obama and the Democrats are the establishment, so that'll work to Clinton's favor.
 
I was reading a post on how Jindal's popularity is dropping like a rock in Louisiana. I'm astounded at how that's even possible. Jindal has proven himself to be a mouthbreather par excellance, and has suggested some of the most orgasm inducing conservative legislation in the country. And it's not like he lives in some pansy blue state either. This is fricken Louisiana, a state so right-wing that even their NAACP offices have a confederate flag hanging out front.

A lot of it was his asinine eat-the-poor income tax repeal misadventure - he got on the wrong side of churches with that - and a widespread belief that he spends too much time out of state trying to do national bullshit for his own gain, such as stump for Rick Perry. The rest is his presiding over a perpetually unbalanced budget that everybody knows is unbalanced ahead of time and making mid-year cuts to things that don't have any more room for cuts while refusing to raise any taxes whatsoever (including a very popular increase in taxes on cigarettes that would have happened on its own, but hey, Norquist gets what Norquist wants). Thanks to our absurd constitution, pretty much the only things available for reduction every time this happens are education and health care, and after years and years of education and health care cuts, even the staunchest Republicans are feeling the pain. Take all of that, simmer it for a few hours, and then toss in some school voucher bullshit and you have yourself a putrid gumbo not even your drunk Uncle Boudreaux would eat.
 
Immigration reform is officially dead. Shocker.
The already narrow path to enacting comprehensive immigration reform pretty much disappeared in the past 24 hours.

At the Capitol, House Speaker John Boehner stated a specific policy preference Tuesday that will alienate the entire Democratic Party if he adheres to it, and thus doom the reform effort. And elsewhere in the Beltway, influential conservatives have grown more confident and explicit about abandoning the immigration issue, for at least a couple of years.

Taken together, it means that enacting new immigration legislation will either require Democrats to cave on a key demand, or require Boehner to abandon his preference and break his word to his conference that he won’t move ahead without a majority of his members in support.

“It’s clear from everything that I’ve seen and read over the last couple of weeks that the American people expect that we’ll have strong border security in place before we begin the process of legalizing and fixing our legal immigration system,” Boehner said outside the Capitol Monday afternoon.

His spokesman Michael Steel explains that the statement is consistent with Boehner’s “long-standing emphasis on border security.”

But it amounts to a de facto endorsement of the conservative view that any steps to legalize existing immigrants should be contingent upon implementation of draconian border policies. As is Boehner’s custom, it also eschews the word “citizenship,” suggesting that even if Democrats agree to a trigger, he won’t guarantee that it would be aimed at a full amnesty program, and, thus, eventual voting rights for immigrants already in the U.S.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has called this policy formulation a “poison pill.”
more at link: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...am-up-to-quash-immigration-reform.php?ref=fpb

Republicans also have decided to stripe food stamps from the farm bill, and pass them separately. Seems like they read the Census and realize they don't need Hispanic or female voters to hold the House, which is true.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
Immigration reform is officially dead. Shocker.

more at link: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...am-up-to-quash-immigration-reform.php?ref=fpb

Republicans also have decided to stripe food stamps from the farm bill, and pass them separately. Seems like they read the Census and realize they don't need Hispanic or female voters to hold the House, which is true.
Guess Democrats will just have to settle for public opinion, the Senate, the Presidency, and the Supreme Court.
 
Immigration reform is officially dead. Shocker.

more at link: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...am-up-to-quash-immigration-reform.php?ref=fpb

Republicans also have decided to stripe food stamps from the farm bill, and pass them separately. Seems like they read the Census and realize they don't need Hispanic or female voters to hold the House, which is true.
We'll see about that.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...er-backlash-if-immigration-reform-stalls.html

Voters in CA-10 (Jeff Denham), CA-21 (David Valadao), CA-31 (Gary Miller), CO-6 (Mike Coffman), MN-2 (John Kline), NV-3 (Joe Heck), and NY-11 (Mike Grimm) all say they would be less likely to vote for their Congressman next year if he opposes immigration reform. Voters in those districts also say they will be inclined to punish the Republican Party more broadly if the House GOP does not allow immigration reform to move forward.
Add FL-02 (Steve Southerland), IL-13 (Rodney Davis), MI-01 (Dan Benishek), and NE-02 (Lee Terry) and that's 11 pickups. 6 more to go...
 
You're assuming democrats don't lose any seats.
If there's a wave big enough to give Democrats a House majority, it would likely extend to their most vulnerable incumbents as well.

That and the reddest districts that Democrats still hold were held onto in 2010 and 2012, which makes me believe they're safe for now.
 
Rand Paul’s team has another white supremacist:
Jack Hunter, who co-authored Rand Paul’s 2011 book and now directs new media for the Kentucky senator, has a past alter ego as the “Southern Avenger,” a provocative radio personality known for wearing a luchador mask emblazoned with the Confederate flag and for making outrageous comments about race and Southern secession, Alana Goodman of the Washington Free Beacon reveals today.

As the arguably white nationalist Southern Avenger, Hunter praised the assassination of Abraham Lincoln, saying he “raise a personal toast every May 10 to celebrate John Wilkes Booth’s birthday,” compared Lincoln to Saddam Hussein, and suggested the great American president would have had a homosexual relationship with Adolf Hitler, had the two ever met. He also advocated against Hispanic immigration and in favor of white pride, warning that a “non-white majority America would simply cease to be America.”


Rand Paul rEVOLution! (Constantly reminded of this Onion article whenever these Paul stories pop up.)

And Chait's short take:
The deep connection between the Pauls and the neo-Confederate movement doesn’t discredit their ideas, but it’s also not just an indiscretion. It’s a reflection of the fact that white supremacy is a much more important historical constituency for anti-government ideas than libertarians like to admit.
 
This is just pathetic now. Wouldn't be nice if Congress the House actually did something useful and actually passed legislation that was beneficial and helped the country progress?
To be fair, immigration reform is the first piece of significant legislation the Senate has passed this year. Democrats passed a budget through reconciliation that's going nowhere, and gun control failed thanks to the filibuster.
 

Wilsongt

Member
To be fair, immigration reform is the first piece of significant legislation the Senate has passed this year. Democrats passed a budget through reconciliation that's going nowhere, and gun control failed thanks to the filibuster.

Remember from 2008 - 2010 when shit actually got done?

Thanks, Obama.
 
Boehner pushing a vote to delay the individual mandate a year. Gonna try and make Dems decide whether they want to come off looking like they're giving business a break but not the rest of the country.

REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL!
 

Wilsongt

Member
Boehner pushing a vote to delay the individual mandate a year. Gonna try and make Dems decide whether they want to come off looking like they're giving business a break but not the rest of the country.

REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL!

And people will eat it up, too, because Republicans are some of the most blind people to hypocrisy.
 
Boehner pushing a vote to delay the individual mandate a year. Gonna try and make Dems decide whether they want to come off looking like they're giving business a break but not the rest of the country.

REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL!

If they really put that up for a vote the repeal votes will look stupid. Do you want the law or not? The dems can call them out for politics. It also makes them vulnerable for a primary attack.
 
Boehner pushing a vote to delay the individual mandate a year. Gonna try and make Dems decide whether they want to come off looking like they're giving business a break but not the rest of the country.

REPEAL REPEAL REPEAL!

hilarious since the employer mandate affects roughly 10k businesses out of over 5 million.

Businesses are hardly affected by the employer mandate to begin with.
 

Diablos

Member
This is why I think Obamacare will not survive more than 5-10 years sometimes. Basically the next time we have a GOP Pres, they will probably kill it. As long as they have a majority in the house they could do it via reconciliation.
 
This is why I think Obamacare will not survive more than 5-10 years sometimes. Basically the next time we have a GOP Pres, they will probably kill it. As long as they have a majority in the house they could do it via reconciliation.

Once Obamacare's exchanges are actually implemented and around, it's too late.

You think the GOP is going to repeal it,take millions of people off affordable insurance?

hahaha. That's why the 2012 election was so huge. they know that once it goes into effect, the law will only change in terms of more gov't intervention (ie public option), not less.
 
This is why I think Obamacare will not survive more than 5-10 years sometimes. Basically the next time we have a GOP Pres, they will probably kill it. As long as they have a majority in the house they could do it via reconciliation.
We're not gonna have a GOP pres and control of all branches for a while. By then the law will be in effect.They'll have no leverage. They won't be able to repeal the popular without blowing up the budget.

edit: as mamba said a whole sale repeal would be suicide.
 

Diablos

Member
Once Obamacare's exchanges are actually implemented and around, it's too late.

You think the GOP is going to repeal it,take millions of people off affordable insurance?

hahaha. That's why the 2012 election was so huge. they know that once it goes into effect, the law will only change in terms of more gov't intervention (ie public option), not less.

We're not gonna have a GOP pres and control of all branches for a while. By then the law will be in effect.They'll have no leverage. They won't be able to repeal the popular without blowing up the budget.
This is the GOP we're talking about here, the epitome of heartless politics that serve no one but the elite.

They'd find a clever way to make it look like repealing the law won't hurt anything while passing it on to lower/middle class folks. I'd count on it. They'll do it in small sections over the course of 5 years or something until they completely dismantle it. Most CEO's/employers will be on board with it and scare the shit out of employees with their rhetoric btw. I've seen it first hand. Upper management in my company blames Obamacare for everything from a lack of raises to company instability. People eat it up. Most of them, anyway.

You think the GOP is going to repeal it,take millions of people off affordable insurance?
Um, yeah. I do. If given the opportunity they certainly would.

Basically with the GOP these days, you can expect nothing less than the absolute worst :) And perhaps, even worse than that sometimes...
 
It would be like the GOP trying to repeal Social Security. They can't even successfully argue a partial privatization of it so imagine what a repeal would look like.

The key is for Obamacare to get off the ground running and working well enough. If it does that, the debate is done. The GOP will eventually compromise in order to fix aspects of it. This will be down the line of course, but it's the only plan of action.


Also, the GOP ignoring immigration is hilarious. The party really is run by idiots. They just need more white votes! Unfortunately, those white voters aren't conservative. And a lot of the older white voters will be replaced by younger white voters as time keeps moving on. The problem isn't that they didn't tap enough into the white vote, it's that there isn't any more conservative white vote out there. Young white people aren't like the old white people...
 

Diablos

Member
The key is for Obamacare to get off the ground running and working well enough. If it does that, the debate is done. The GOP will eventually compromise in order to fix aspects of it. This will be down the line of course, but it's the only plan of action.
Right now that's not really going too well considering PPACA is basically a red vs. blue governor/state legislature thing at the moment save some rare cases (i.e. Christie)
 
Also, the GOP ignoring immigration is hilarious. The party really is run by idiots. They just need more white votes! Unfortunately, those white voters aren't conservative. And a lot of the older white voters will be replaced by younger white voters as time keeps moving on. The problem isn't that they didn't tap enough into the white vote, it's that there isn't any more conservative white vote out there. Young white people aren't like the old white people...

Nate Cohn has an excellent writeup of this!
 
This is why I think Obamacare will not survive more than 5-10 years sometimes. Basically the next time we have a GOP Pres, they will probably kill it. As long as they have a majority in the house they could do it via reconciliation.

Nope. Insurance companies won't let that happen. They love this law. They're guranteed millions and millions of customers. Shoot, as an insurance agent I love it lol. If anything, the next big reform will be towards a public option, not to gut the system back to what it was.
 
Nate Cohn has an excellent write-up of this!


205_10_01_13_8_57_55.png


This image says so damn much. (blue is where Gore did better than obama, red vice versa)
 
Nate Cohn has an excellent writeup of this!

Great article. This illustrates is better. The GOP is too focused on aggregate numbers rather than actually figuring out what the numbers mean.

And it's more specific than they realize;mostly southern white voters.

The fight for "missing white voters" is so misguided. I still believe the major difference in the election in 2012 was frustration with Obama (even if misplaced) combined with distaste for Romney's conservative stances (or rather the GOP). In other words, voters who might have voted for Obama opted to stay home without a real alternative choice that they deemed suitable. Going more conservative will simply create more of these voters or turn them back to voting Dem.
 

Averon

Member
And elsewhere in the Beltway, influential conservatives have grown more confident and explicit about abandoning the immigration issue, for at least a couple of years.

I'm sorry, I haven't been following politics lately, but where is this confidence coming from? They got destroyed in the Hispanic vote in 2012 and they think abandoning immigration reform is a wise and winning move?!
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm sorry, I haven't been following politics lately, but where is this confidence coming from? They got destroyed in the Hispanic vote in 2012 and they think abandoning immigration reform is a wise and winning move?!

They're doubling down on the white vote. When I say white vote I mean the southern white christian vote.
 

Link

The Autumn Wind
I'm sorry, I haven't been following politics lately, but where is this confidence coming from? They got destroyed in the Hispanic vote in 2012 and they think abandoning immigration reform is a wise and winning move?!
When you unskew the election, Romney actually won the Hispanic vote. And the election in general.
 

Averon

Member
They're doubling down on the white vote. When I say white vote I mean the southern white christian vote.

They're just going to ignore the demographic shifts happening? The share of the white vote in national elections has been steadily dropping, and they think relying more on a shrinking, dying voter base is the future for the GOP?
Then again, this is the same party that can't get it through their heads that rape is bad, and that thinks trivializing rape is somehow good politics, so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised at this.
 

Gotchaye

Member
They're doubling down on the white vote. When I say white vote I mean the southern white christian vote.

There was an interesting post on CrookedTimber a while ago about splitting whites into two "ethnicities" to try to apply the same sort of theory we apply to black (and Hispanic) voters to white voters. In a pretty non-gerrymandered way you can identify "southern whites" and, for lack of a better term, "non-southern whites", although the geography isn't strict because people can move around - there are plenty of both all over the country, but southern whites make up a much larger percentage of the population in the South. That there's a real cultural distinction here is prima facie plausible to anyone who's ever been there, and people have talked about northern and southern whites as distinct peoples since before the Civil War.

Anyway, Republicans have about the same relationship with southern whites, as a voting bloc, that Democrats have with black voters. In Mississippi, where basically all of the white voters are southern whites, Republicans win ~90% of the white vote. Taking a reasonable guess at the southern white population of other states, you find the parties are splitting the non-southern white vote about 50/50, and there's not much reason to think there's been a significant trend there.
 
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