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The Autumn Wind
With the VRA struck down, soon-to-be-passed voter ID laws will prevent plenty of minorities from voting. Problem solved!
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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1
- Thread starter The Librarian
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TacticalFox88
Banned
I can't wait for the day Texas goes purple.
Republicans will literally be a regional party at that point.
Republicans will literally be a regional party at that point.
If that actually happens and the GOP doesn't get any new pickups I will laugh until I die.
Well, that certainly improved my day substantially.
TacticalFox88
Banned
When the Republican party is destroyed, my ideal scenario is that the Dems split into two parties.
One for the Liberal Progressives like Elizabeth Warren and the other for Center-Right like Obama.
One for the Liberal Progressives like Elizabeth Warren and the other for Center-Right like Obama.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
It's a matter of timing I guess. They acknowledge that someday they will require the hispanic vote, and that their base will die of old age, but for 2014 that base is still alive and kicking, and hispanics haven't reached a critical mass quite yet.
Honestly I'm not sure if passing immigration reform is a good idea for them politically. Giving immigrants a path to citizenship and thus voting rights could just expedite that problem.
On one hand they have a growing population of financially liberal but potentially socially conservative hispanics.
On the other they have a growing number of socially liberal but potentially financially conservative youths.
Right now the democrats are benefiting from both thanks to their more moderate nature, and it's hard to see how the republicans can successfully make gains in both demographics at the same time. Can Rand Paul really court hispanics? Can Rubio really court the youth? I don't think so.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This image says so damn much. (blue is where Gore did better than obama, red vice versa)
Is there a good in depth analysis of this? I mean, there's a really obvious conclusion to draw from it, but I'm not sure if I'm comfortable actually drawing it so flippantly.
The Librarian
Banned
worldrunover
Member
Seems like most border Congressmen are going to vote for it.
You know what is sad? That a large swath of the midwest will not vote for immigration reform, despite the fact that they probably have the highest amount of Hispanic workers due to farmland.
Aaron Strife
Banned
You should check out Sean Trende's analysis of why demographics are good for the GOP. Somehow Obama's bad performance with white voters will extend to all future Democratic candidates, while his not being on the ballot will depress black turnout or allow more of them to vote Republican. How delightfully convenient!
Except historically, Obama's vote share among white and black voters has been similar to that of Clinton, Gore and Kerry, and the emerging Democratic majority is a result of a more diverse electorate, and that Hispanics and Asians are becoming more reliably Democratic than ever before. You know, the two fastest growing ethnic groups in America, and also the two who would benefit most from passing immigration reform, which the House Republican majority is firmly standing in the way of.
In conclusion
"Why do all these goddamn neo-confederates keep showing up at my States' Rights rallies?!"
ClassyPenguin
Banned
mightynine
Member
If you don't mind, as someone from Louisiana, I'd like to weigh in on Jindal, even though I missed the conversation last night.
First off, it's not race. His dropping poll numbers come from his constant campaigning out of state, continual slicing and dicing of the state budget to make a "balanced" document (as required by law) only to have mid-year deficits that cause yet another hit to higher ed and health care. Then he completely disappeared this session after his tax reform that appeared to be thrown together for conservative bonafides did not find a very receptive audience among the lawmakers who would have to deal with the changes long after he was gone.
There's also some of his big reforms passed in a way found unconstitutional, the investigation of how his former health secretary awarded a Medicaid contract, and his administration is VERY insular. It's either his way or the highway. He'll campaign on making government more transparent, but his office is locked down tight.
He was sold as a wunderkind, but now the emperor has no clothes. He's becoming Louisiana's version of Mitt Romney where everyone will be happy to be rid of him.
Personally, I don't think Jindal knows how to NOT be the golden boy. Everything he's done has been to ultimately run for president - Education reform, transparency, tax reform - but nobody wants him now.
But in the interim, looking to win the hearts of the state GOP is David Vitter, who's widely rumored to be running for governor. I'm not looking forward to that possibility. There's a good piece about this in the New Republic:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113661/bobby-jindal-and-david-vitters-feud#
Anyway, hope that gives some background. I'll try to answer anything I missed.
First off, it's not race. His dropping poll numbers come from his constant campaigning out of state, continual slicing and dicing of the state budget to make a "balanced" document (as required by law) only to have mid-year deficits that cause yet another hit to higher ed and health care. Then he completely disappeared this session after his tax reform that appeared to be thrown together for conservative bonafides did not find a very receptive audience among the lawmakers who would have to deal with the changes long after he was gone.
There's also some of his big reforms passed in a way found unconstitutional, the investigation of how his former health secretary awarded a Medicaid contract, and his administration is VERY insular. It's either his way or the highway. He'll campaign on making government more transparent, but his office is locked down tight.
He was sold as a wunderkind, but now the emperor has no clothes. He's becoming Louisiana's version of Mitt Romney where everyone will be happy to be rid of him.
Personally, I don't think Jindal knows how to NOT be the golden boy. Everything he's done has been to ultimately run for president - Education reform, transparency, tax reform - but nobody wants him now.
But in the interim, looking to win the hearts of the state GOP is David Vitter, who's widely rumored to be running for governor. I'm not looking forward to that possibility. There's a good piece about this in the New Republic:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113661/bobby-jindal-and-david-vitters-feud#
Anyway, hope that gives some background. I'll try to answer anything I missed.
shadowsdarknes
Member
Is Rand Paul a gold nut/"End the Fed" nut like this father?
The Librarian
Banned
Thanks for the writeup.
He hides it better, but he has the same ultimate end goal.
Well, insurance companies can't be totally wrong and evil all the time. If arming teachers in a school isn't risky behavior then nothing is. They're totally in the right here. It's a dumb idea and I'm glad people can realize this.
That said, I still don't like how insurance works in most cases. Especially health insurance.
The problem with health insurance has nothing to do with how well they apply actuarial science. Insurance companies are extremely good at that, and refusing to insure schools that arm their teachers with guns is as natural a risk assessment as refusing to insure a stage three cancer patient. We just shouldn't let that be the determining factor for whether that patient gets treated. And sadly, we shouldn't have let things get to the point where the lack of insurance coverage is the only thing keeping more guns out of schools.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Yeah, I was typing up a slightly longer post that's basically this. The actual mechanisms of insurance can be very very good. Its just that there are specific areas of life that absolutly should not be on an insurance based system.
rocketknight
Member
It's truly a mystery.
And, like I mentioned briefly on the previous page, his school voucher thing was crazy bungled. It used blatantly unconstitutional funding sources, which got struck down by a (conservative) judge, and had to scramble for money elsewhere leaving current voucher students in a lurch and keeping a Jindal failure in the headlines as people were beginning to sour both on Jindal himself and the voucher agenda, which was rammed through the legislature quickly and only later started getting shat on by the press and the public. If he'd slipped it through constitutionally, he wouldn't have taken such a big hit from being associated with it during the year of negative coverage it wound up generating.
CHEEZMO
Obsidian fan
White supremacy?
Black Mamba
Member
Sarah Palin saying she might run for Senate.
She must have a new book coming out next year.
She must have a new book coming out next year.
She does. It's some stupid screed on the War on Christmas.
Link
The Autumn Wind
You mean the holiday that we now celebrate from before Halloween til after the New Year?
The very same!
By the way, completely random question, but are there any liberal conventions that exist? Aside from Netroots Nation, of course.
Link
The Autumn Wind
It's called "Reality."
RustyNails
Member
Well the comic con is in Chicago this year.
Just looked it up.
The planned title is A Happy Holiday IS a Merry Christmas
"This will be a fun, festive, thought-provoking book, which will encourage all to see what is possible when we unite in defense of our faith and ignore the politically correct Scrooges who would rather take Christ out of Christmas" - Sarah Palin
funfunfun
Aaron Strife
Banned
COME ON DO IT
PhoenixDark
Banned
Being a senator is a job, which means Palin will never be a senator. She's set for life, giving speeches and trolling both parties on Fox News.
rocketknight
Member
I don't think she's trolling, since she believes the dumb shit she says. People goad her into saying more of it so they can mooch off the money that rolls in, but she seems pretty serious.
She went full retard like a week after McCain revealed her to the world. There was maybe a whole 20 minutes people took her seriously.
No, she doesn't. Palin always plays to the crowd when she speaks. Remember the big gulp stunt? It's clear she'll say she'll believe anything for a buck. She's as opportunist as she can get, and doesn't seem to give a shit about anything she says.
rocketknight
Member
There were a lot of other dumb Republicans doing the same shit, I'm gonna need more before I replace my null hypothesis that she's sincere in her stupidity!
adamsappel
Member
I figured it was some gaming-related post, but looks like he went on a rant about wanting female convicts to be forcibly sterilized.
Why do these articles never speak about racist voters? I'm sure there are plenty of white voters who would vote for a Democrat, but just didn't want to vote for a black guy. West Virginia Democrats seemed pretty high on Clinton in 2004, but would rather vote for an out-of-state incarcerated felon over Obama. Maybe the Hilary fervor was just anti-Obama sentiment.
I can't believe that racists who wouldn't vote for a black guy will suddenly be cool with someone named "Piyush."
Black Mamba
Member
I agree with you, but I think they are having a hard time isolating that. It also makes sense that the gains in white vote have been in the South where, let's face it, they're more inclined to be racist.
I think Hillary would do quite well with whites in 2016 if the economy is humming.
I wonder how Rubio plays under those circumstances. Republicans might be forced to primary a white guy to keep from losing the coveted racist vote. It's one of the few they have left.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Ultimately republicans are going to increase white turnout in southern states, which will have no impact on the electoral college.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
Pro-Clinton Super PAC hires Obama 2012 field organizers.
Hilary with Obama's ground game will be unbeatable.
Link
The Autumn Wind
I'm not even sure they'll do that once the Democrats have a white candidate.
EDIT -
Brilliant move.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Obama's doing his best to fuck everything up for democrats, but hopefully an improved economy+far right republican candidate makes 2016 a lock for Hillary.
Second term has been a disaster. Saw a bit of his latest flailing attempt to "do something," ie the streamlining government thing (which he has discussed in SOTUs before).
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Smart move to do this now. Though I do fear the inevitability will allow someone to attack it.
Black Mamba
Member
6 months into the 2nd presidency and Obama is failing, eh?
If anything, the House GOP is failing and making a Democrat victory much more likely.
But I like your record on predictions so...
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