So now that the Republican civil war we predicted last year is well underway, it's worth considering who's winning.
As always, when a political coalition loses control, many of its members are cast into the wilderness, and some don't ever really come back. (For Democrats after 1968, unfortunately, this was organized labor, which will not be a meaningful political force for perhaps decades -- which is just another reason why social programs are the critical next step.)
For the Grand Old Party, some forces are already pretty much done -- I think it's clear, with the continuing advances on gay marriage, marijuana legalization, etc., that the social reactionaries are on their way back to being a powerless Southern rump. There are many more battles to fight, but there's not much question about the war. There's also some sizable evidence post-Syria that the interventionist neocons are losing out. Of course, with both these groups removed as national political pressures, Democratic politicians are free to swing left on both topics as well, so I expect that, as a country, we'll be improving on social values and staying out of international conflicts for quite a while.
The biggest groups remaining for the Republicans, to my view, are libertarians, Randians, and corporatists. If trends continue, I'm starting to wonder whether the constant Silicon Valley conflict between liberalism and libertarianism represents the future of American politics.