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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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Xdrive05

Xdrive05

Member
teiresias said:
As a Federal Employee I'd really like to know why they think Federal Employee retirement needs to be reformed. Those of us under FERS retirement are already getting crappy retirement benefits compared to those under the CSRS system.

I mean what form would any reform even take? It's basically just a government run 401k at this point, unless they want to privatize it and get us the same crappy maintenance fees as everyone else to line bankers pockets even more.
Click to expand...

"Didn't you get the memo? Federal employees are all privileged and criminally overpaid bureaucratic scum of the earth."

- Everone else in America
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
So a one year obamacare delay for a one year increase in the debt limit.

And if the republicans got that I'm sure they wont try another year delay for another year increase in the debt limit next year, right?
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
I missed the part of the demands where the GOP asks Obama to resign and move back to Kenya in the debt limit proposal. Can someone point it out?
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
TacticalFox88 said:
You know what makes this bad?

We have to wait 404 days to potentially vote these assholes out
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They aren't going anywhere until after 2020 (unless 2016 is a wave election), thanks to gerrymandering/census. The far right is fired up and will show up to the polls next year. Will the democrats' base show up? They sure didn't show up in Colorado a few weeks ago.

Right now I'm assuming 2014 will be a wash basically; republicans lose a few seats, dems lose a few seats.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixPause said:
They aren't going anywhere until after 2020 (unless 2016 is a wave election), thanks to gerrymandering/census. The far right is fired up and will show up to the polls next year. Will the democrats' base show up? They sure didn't show up in Colorado a few weeks ago.

Right now I'm assuming 2014 will be a wash basically; republicans lose a few seats, dems lose a few seats.
Click to expand...

demographic changes are too big over a decade to take til 2020. If not in 2014, it'll happen in 2016.

The gerrymander breaks down over time. Otherwise, we wouldn't have seen gains last election.

And I don't think the far right will turn out as much in 2014 and it did in 2010. They might be fatigued from losing and pissed off from being lied to so much.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Sounds like Bob Corker is laying the smackdown on Cruz and Lee. They're trying to delay vote until Friday, and Corker pointed out both have been raising money and setting up streams for Friday. It's a damn game.

Black Mamba said:
demographic changes are too big over a decade to take til 2020. If not in 2014, it'll happen in 2016.

The gerrymander breaks down over time. Otherwise, we wouldn't have seen gains last election.

And I don't think the far right will turn out as much in 2014 and it did in 2010. They might be fatigued from losing and pissed off from being lied to so much.
Click to expand...

IRS+Obamacare problems will almost certainly guarantee heavy republican turnout.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
PhoenixPause said:
They aren't going anywhere until after 2020 (unless 2016 is a wave election), thanks to gerrymandering/census. The far right is fired up and will show up to the polls next year. Will the democrats' base show up? They sure didn't show up in Colorado a few weeks ago.

Right now I'm assuming 2014 will be a wash basically; republicans lose a few seats, dems lose a few seats.
Click to expand...
Why is 2020 a magical year? There are 3 elections in between (14,16,18). And it's not like the districts revert. We're stuck with them until dems win back states. And why does everyone discount redistricting before 2020 in a legislature that the dems win back? Texas did it and the Supreme Court upheld the practice. Why not have the dems in PA or MI (maybe give more parity. Your not gonna get reverse gerrymandering but you can eliminate some of the more unfair safe seats.

And if the GOP continues this they'll lose younger voters they'll never win back too.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PhoenixPause said:
Sounds like Bob Corker is laying the smackdown on Cruz and Lee. They're trying to delay vote until Friday, and Corker pointed out both have been raising money and setting up streams for Friday. It's a damn game.



IRS+Obamacare problems will almost certainly guarantee heavy republican turnout.
Click to expand...

What if people turn out to like Obamacare though? The exchanges will have been in place for a year and unless they really screwed the pooch on them, I can't imagine people not liking having them.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
B-Dubs said:
What if people turn out to like Obamacare though? The exchanges will have been in place for a year and unless they really screwed the pooch on them, I can't imagine people not liking having them.
Click to expand...

I'm sure many will like it, but as has been pointed out before it's still insurance. Premiums look good but deductibles are high (but capped), plans are being cancelled, others are seeing increases, etc. It's naive to just assume things will go swell for a plurality to a point where opposition becomes irrelevant or muted.

To me the biggest question I have is how the Medicaid expansion and exchange rates for low income people will impact voting. Will these people, many of whom are female/minority/young people/etc, show up to vote and protect their benefits from being taken away? It's going to be very interesting to see turnout numbers and demographics.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
If people are pissed off enough by Republicans, they'll turn out. It's not like midterms always favor the out party, Clinton saw gains in 1998 because the GOP overreached.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Sounds like Bob Corker is laying the smackdown on Cruz and Lee. They're trying to delay vote until Friday, and Corker pointed out both have been raising money and setting up streams for Friday. It's a damn game.



IRS+Obamacare problems will almost certainly guarantee heavy republican turnout.
Click to expand...

This time next year, people will be changing their tune on Obamacare. It won't be the carrot stick it is now. The GOP base will also realize the futility. They're losers and by then they'll know it.

You'll see.
 
R

rocketknight

Member
http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2013/09/26/20707223-boehner-cant-let-go-of-brinkmanship

It looked like there was finally a light at the end of the tunnel. The Senate would pass a "clean" spending bill -- it'd be the same as the House version, except it wouldn't "defund Obamacare" -- over the weekend, at which point House Republicans would pass it, send it to the White House, and immediately initiate a debt-ceiling crisis in which the GOP would threaten to destroy the economy on purpose unless its demands are met.

So, that's one crisis down, one to go? Not quite.

Speaker John A. Boehner signaled Thursday that the House would not simply vote on the version of the continuing resolution the Senate sends back, running up against a timeline that could suggest at least a temporary government shutdown.

Asked if he would now accept a "clean" CR from the Senate to avoid a government shutdown, the Ohio Republican was plain-spoken: "I do not see that happening."​

No, of course not. That'd be too easy.

At this point, you might be thinking, "Wait, Boehner won't have time to play silly games before a shutdown. The deadline is Monday, so House Republicans will have to choose between passing the Senate bill and shutting down the government."

And there's certainly some truth to that. If the House spends Monday on a far-right alternative they like better, and then pass it, the lights will go out at midnight.

That said, there are also reports that House Republicans might also pass a short-term extension, keeping the status quo in place for "a week or so." At that point, the dance can continue -- the House will amend the Senate bill, add some far-right provisions, and once more tell the upper chamber to do things Republicans' way or the government will shut down.

In other words, maybe the light at the end of the tunnel is a train.
Click to expand...

Sigh.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
PhoenixPause said:
I'm sure many will like it, but as has been pointed out before it's still insurance. Premiums look good but deductibles are high (but capped), plans are being cancelled, others are seeing increases, etc. It's naive to just assume things will go swell for a plurality to a point where opposition becomes irrelevant or muted.

To me the biggest question I have is how the Medicaid expansion and exchange rates for low income people will impact voting. Will these people, many of whom are female/minority/young people/etc, show up to vote and protect their benefits from being taken away? It's going to be very interesting to see turnout numbers and demographics.
Click to expand...

I don't expect opposition to be muted, but as has been pointed out by the GOP themselves an entitlement hasn't been gotten rid of once it's been put in place. I have no doubt that it won't go swimmingly for people, but it'll be at the point where it'll be in place and if the GOP runs against it the Dems can frame it as "so-and-so wants to take your health insurance from you." Which as we've seen in the opposition to the ACA, can be a powerful message.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
PhoenixPause said:
They aren't going anywhere until after 2020 (unless 2016 is a wave election), thanks to gerrymandering/census. The far right is fired up and will show up to the polls next year. Will the democrats' base show up? They sure didn't show up in Colorado a few weeks ago.

Right now I'm assuming 2014 will be a wash basically; republicans lose a few seats, dems lose a few seats.
Click to expand...

Colorado recalls only took place in Colorado Springs and Pueblo, which is pretty small and extremely small and generally both lean slightly further right than Colorado as a whole. The recall was about an very specific issue that does get the right really rallied up about and the left doesn't care about much.

I wouldn't put to much weight into what happened there.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
What Reid should do is pass the CR on Sunday and then adjourn the Senate for a 5 day vacation. Put all the pressure of a shutdown on the House. Let's see em do it.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Obama having himself some fun:

Just the other day, one Republican in Congress said we need to shut this thing down before the marketplaces open and people get to see that they’ll be getting coverage and getting these subsidies because — and I’m going to quote him here — he said, “It’s going to prove almost impossible to undo Obamacare.” So, in other words, we’ve got to shut this thing down before people find out that they like it.
Click to expand...

The closer we’ve gotten to this date, the more irresponsible folks who are opposed to this law have become. Some of the same Republicans who warned three years ago that this law would be “Armageddon.”
Click to expand...

I believe eventually they’ll come around. Because Medicare and Social Security faced the same kind of criticism. Before Medicare came into law, one Republican warned that “one of these days, you and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children and our children’s children what it once was like in America when men were free.” That was Ronald Reagan. And eventually, Ronald Reagan came around to Medicare and thought it was pretty good, and actually helped make it better.
So that’s what's going to happen with the Affordable Care Act. And once it's working really well, I guarantee you they will not call it Obamacare.

Here is a prediction for you: A few years from now, when people are using this to get coverage and everybody is feeling pretty good about all the choices and competition that they've got, there are going to be a whole bunch of folks who say, yes, I always thought this provision was excellent. (Laughter.) I voted for that thing. You watch. (Laughter.) It will not be called Obamacare. (Laughter.)
Click to expand...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/...won-t-be-calling-it-Obamacare-for-much-longer
 
R

rocketknight

Member
PhoenixPause said:
Not concerned until I see Boehner's actual plan. If anything, he'll try to pass a week continuation for more time.
Click to expand...

I'm not concerned in the sense that I think it would probably be healthy for the political system as a whole for the government to shut down, while it would be horrible to default or look like we're going to default. Let the Republicans throw their tantrum now, give us the free political points, and maybe we can get through the rest of the year in one piece.
 
K

KingK

Member
Did anybody else see this?

Florida woman jailed for firing 'warning shot' at husband wins new trial

TALLAHASSEE, Florida (Reuters) - A woman sentenced to 20 years in prison after firing a "warning shot" during an argument with her abusive husband won a new trial on Thursday in a case under Florida's controversial self-defense law.

A state appeals court ruled that Marissa Alexander, 32, deserved a new trial because the judge failed to properly instruct the jury regarding her claim of self-defense.
No one was injured in the shooting but because Alexander fired a gun in the incident, Florida's mandatory-minimum sentencing guidelines required the judge to sentence her to 20 years in prison.

The case of Alexander, who is black, drew criticism from civil rights groups concerned about self-defense laws and mandatory minimum sentencing rules.

The 1st District Court of Appeal in Tallahassee said in Thursday's ruling that the trial judge made a "fundamental error" when he instructed the jury that Alexander was required to prove self-defense beyond a reasonable doubt.

"The defendant's burden is only to raise a reasonable doubt concerning self defense," Appeals Court judge Robert Benton wrote for the court.

Alexander was found guilty of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon because her husband's two children were in the house during the argument in August 2010.

A slightly built woman who stands 5 feet 2 inches (1.57 meter), Alexander said her 245-pound (111 kg) husband Rico Gray, was moving toward her threateningly when she fired into a kitchen wall. He had previously been convicted on a domestic violence charge for attacking her.

Gray's two children were at home, in the living room. Prosecutors said the shot endangered Gray and the children.

Alexander filed a "Stand Your Ground" claim, but a judge ruled against her because Alexander chose to go back into the house with her gun.

A jury took just 12 minutes to find her guilty of three counts of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.

At the time, Alexander had an active restraining order against her husband and she carried a concealed weapons permit.
Click to expand...

Full story at the link

So a black woman who fired a warning shot during an altercation with an abusive husband without harming anybody was sentenced to 20 years in prison after 12 minutes of deliberation, while George Zimmerman gets acquitted for killing an unarmed teenager walking home from the store.

I'm glad she's at least getting a new trial, but this sure does highlight the inequities in the justice system.

I'm not even saying her firing the gun was necessarily justified, but it sure is a lot easier to see a justification here than with GZ, and it only took 12 minutes for a jury to find her guilty and be sentenced to 20 years (which is a ridiculous sentence given the circumstances even if you think she should be punished in some manner).
 
R

remist

Member
KingK said:
Did anybody else see this?



Full story at the link

So a black woman who fired a warning shot during an altercation with an abusive husband without harming anybody was sentenced to 20 years in prison after 12 minutes of deliberation, while George Zimmerman gets acquitted for killing an unarmed teenager walking home from the store.

I'm glad she's at least getting a new trial, but this sure does highlight the inequities in the justice system.

I'm not even saying her firing the gun was necessarily justified, but it sure is a lot easier to see a justification here than with GZ, and it only took 12 minutes for a jury to find her guilty and be sentenced to 20 years (which is a ridiculous sentence given the circumstances even if you think she should be punished in some manner).
Click to expand...
A lot of people in the Zimmerman trial threads were also advocating for the burden of proof to be on the defendant in self defense trials and this is exactly why that is a stupid idea.
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
US intelligence chiefs urge Congress to preserve surveillance programs: Officials refuse to say in Senate testimony whether cell site data had ever been used to pinpoint an individual's location

General Keith Alexander, the director of the National Security Agency, conceded that disclosures by the whistleblower Edward Snowden "will change how we operate". But he urged senators, who are weighing a raft of reforms, to preserve the foundational attributes of a program that allows officials to collect the phone data of millions of American citizens.
Click to expand...
"The NSA leadership built an intelligence data collection system that repeatedly deceived the American people. Time and time again the American people were told one thing in a public forum, while intelligence agencies did something else in private."
Click to expand...
Asked by Udall whether it was the NSA's aim to collect the records of all Americans, Alexander replied: "I believe it is in the nation's best interest to put all the phone records into a lockbox – yes."

He would not be drawn on any past attempts or plans to store cell site data for security reasons. The NSA director evaded repeated questions from Wyden over whether the NSA had either collection of cell site phone data, or planned to do so. Alexander eventually replied: "What I don't want to do senator is put out in an unclassified form anything that is classified."
Click to expand...
Alexander said that while recent disclosures were likely to impact public perceptions of the NSA and "change how we operate", any diminution of the intelligence community's capabilities risked terrorist attacks on US territory.

He told the committee that over one seven-day period this month, 972 people had been killed in terrorist attacks in Kenya, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. "We need these programs to ensure we don't have those same statistics here," he said.

Alexander said that violations of the rules governing surveillance powers were not common and "with very rare exceptions, are unintentional". Clapper also admitted to violations, saying "on occasion, we've made mistakes, some quite significant", but stressed those were inadvertent and the result of human or technical errors.
Click to expand...
The trio said they would consider statutory restrictions on their ability to query the data they gather and disclosing publicly how often they use the system. However, there was no suggestion in the written submission that they would contemplate any infringement on the bulk collection and storage of the phone records, a proposal contained in bills being put forward in the House of Representatives and Senate.

"To be clear, we believe the manner in which the bulk telephony metadata collection program has been carried out is lawful, and existing oversight mechanisms protect both privacy and security," they stated.
Click to expand...
She (Dianne Feinstein) echoed criticisms of the media reporting of Snowden disclosures, said she was confident NSA surveillance programs were "lawful, effective and they are conducted under careful oversight". She asserted that the program by which intelligence officials secretly collect millions of phone metadata, and can be used to provide a detailed breakdown of an individual's movements life, was not a form of covert monitoring. "Much of the press has called this as surveillance program," she said. "It is not."
Click to expand...
A little admission of foul-up (after practically being dragged to it by the leaks) with a healthy sprinkle of fear mongering, disavowing that there are any problems with the way this system is set up, blaming the media, and it's looking like they could very well squeak out of all this with a toothless piece of legislation that feels good and fixes nothing. Add in Feinstein's jaw-droppingly surreal conclusion that putting together a complete record of someone's life, activities, and movements is somehow not surveillance.
 
M

Mario

Sidhe / PikPok
KingK said:
Did anybody else see this?

Full story at the link

So a black woman who fired a warning shot during an altercation with an abusive husband without harming anybody was sentenced to 20 years in prison after 12 minutes of deliberation, while George Zimmerman gets acquitted for killing an unarmed teenager walking home from the store.

I'm glad she's at least getting a new trial, but this sure does highlight the inequities in the justice system.

I'm not even saying her firing the gun was necessarily justified, but it sure is a lot easier to see a justification here than with GZ, and it only took 12 minutes for a jury to find her guilty and be sentenced to 20 years (which is a ridiculous sentence given the circumstances even if you think she should be punished in some manner).
Click to expand...

There was a thread on this.

While her sentence seems overly harsh for the result (certainly compared to Zimmerman trial), a key difference with the Zimmerman case was that she left the property to get the gun then came back. She also reportedly was determined to have fired at the guy but missed.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
remist said:
A lot of people in the Zimmerman trial threads were also advocating for the burden of proof to be on the defendant in self defense trials and this is exactly why that is a stupid idea.
Click to expand...

It is not a stupid idea to place the burden on the defendant, and this is coming from a defense lawyer. It makes perfect sense, because when one person kills another, often there are no witnesses and so placing an affirmative duty on the defendant to prove an affirmative defense is practical. That burden should be something like a preponderance of the evidence. This judge applied a burden even more stringent than that. Florida's mandatory minimum laws were also problematic. A conviction might not have been unwarranted, provided that a probationary sentence was legally available.

Still, this woman's most difficult legal obstacle in obtaining an acquittal was that she was black.
 
R

remist

Member
empty vessel said:
It is not a stupid idea to place the burden on the defendant, and this is coming from a defense lawyer. It makes perfect sense, because when one person kills another, often there are no witnesses and so placing an affirmative duty on the defendant to prove an affirmative defense is practical. That burden should be something like a preponderance of the evidence. This judge applied a burden even more stringent than that. Florida's mandatory minimum laws were also problematic. A conviction might not have been unwarranted, provided that a probationary sentence was legally available.

Still, this woman's most difficult legal obstacle in obtaining an acquittal was that she was black.
Click to expand...
So if you truly kill another person in self defense and there are no witnesses or evidence that you can use that will satisfy a preponderance of the evidence standard, you are just shit out of luck? I'm sorry, but that is stupid. Protecting innocent people from false convictions should be the top priority.
 
J

Jooney

Member
i_am_not_jon_ames said:
Yep. There were even a few representatives pushing to include more abortion restrictions!

I liked the Atlantic's line:

and once you get through them, you'll be surprised they didn't ask for free ice cream, a lifetime pass to Disneyland, and a bill to rename the capitol "The Reagan Dome."
Click to expand...

GOP knows how to negotiate. First ask for an outrageous list of demands, then put pressure on the President to compromise to a core set. People who aren't really paying attention will see the GOP as the ones looking for compromise and that it's the President being stubborn.
 
empty vessel

empty vessel

Member
remist said:
So if you truly kill another person in self defense and there are no witnesses or evidence that you can use that will satisfy a preponderance of the evidence standard, you are just shit out of luck? I'm sorry, but that is stupid. Protecting innocent people from false convictions should be the top priority.
Click to expand...

The defendant is a witness. The State has no power to call the defendant to testify, however.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Mario said:
There was a thread on this.

While her sentence seems overly harsh for the result (certainly compared to Zimmerman trial), a key difference with the Zimmerman case was that she left the property to get the gun then came back. She also reportedly was determined to have fired at the guy but missed.
Click to expand...

I try not to follow "outrage of the week" trials like this, but is that accurate? There's no way that's even close to self defense if she left the vicinity to get a gun then CAME BACK with it.
 
J

Jooney

Member
Mario said:
There was a thread on this.

While her sentence seems overly harsh for the result (certainly compared to Zimmerman trial), a key difference with the Zimmerman case was that she left the property to get the gun then came back. She also reportedly was determined to have fired at the guy but missed.
Click to expand...

My understanding is that she went to the garage to get her gun (so still on her property). And the shot was fired into the ceiling, not at the husband.

In would be interesting to hear where she should have retreated to given that she was already in her home.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
remist said:
So if you truly kill another person in self defense and there are no witnesses or evidence that you can use that will satisfy a preponderance of the evidence standard, you are just shit out of luck? I'm sorry, but that is stupid. Protecting innocent people from false convictions should be the top priority.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't protecting innocent people's lives be the top priority?
 
Z

zargle

Member
Saw this in Sargent's WaPo roundup and thought it would be nice to share:

And Alex Seitz-Wald wins the Twitters today with his proposal for how Dems should respond to the GOP conservative wish-list debt ceiling proposal:

Demand:

1) Single payer health care.

2) Carbon tax.

3) Path to citizenship.

4) End sequestration.

5) End Bush tax cuts above $259K.

6) Wall Street tax.

7) Nancy Pelosi made Speaker.

Imagine the outpouring of mockery from the press corps if Dems did something like this. Yet when the GOP offers a set of demands that are similarly ludicrous — comically, epically so, in fact — they treat it as business as usual, and ask Dems why they won’t negotiate.
Click to expand...
 
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