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[Avon Barksdale]

But what if Boner gets ousted in a primary?

 

[B-Dubs]

So here's the question that I'm kind of wondering about now -- if they did dethrone Boehner, who's the next Speaker of the House? There are about eighty crazy Republicans that he might lose -- but that leaves a hundred and fifty relatively reasonable Republicans who have been happy to go along with Boehner up til now. Electing a Speaker requires a majority of votes. Who's the compromise candidate here that both groups can support? Cantor's tarred with the same brush as Boehner. Paul Ryan, maybe? And how many ballots will it take for them to converge on a candidate? It's probably not particularly likely that the GOP rump would install Nancy Pelosi just to keep the crazies away from the gavel, but Gingrich once threatened a similar outcome to protect HIS speakership from an upstart Representative from Ohio named John Boehner.

I think the odds mitigate against them punting Boehner before 2014, just because of inertia. I'd be entertained to see what happened if I'm wrong, though.

I doubt they'd form around Ryan, especially after his failed VP bid and his budget being used against Republicans to great effect in recent elections.

Honestly, I have no idea who they would go with. The mainstream would probably form around Cantor though, in order to keep some semblance of sanity.

 

[Black Mamba]

Why hello there, speaker Darrell Issa. Nice to see you, today.


Maybe Kevin McCarthy, though.

Honestly, I don't see Boehner losing it before 2014.

For one, you'd have to be absolutely nuts to take the job from him. It's the worst job in Washington right now. For another, it would take away the far right's ability to rail against leadership since that will now be them.

Honestly, if Boehner was ousted, I think you could argue that was the moment the GOP imploded and everything went to hell for them. Losing Boehner, imo, would really help Dems in 2014.

 

[Shao Kahn on the Lawn]

How would do it do that if it only compares private insurance plan?

I think gcubed is asserting that increased utilization will ultimately make private insurance untenable. PPACA is ultimately going to undo the fear that using one's insurance is going to result in unjust rate increases or, worse still, rescission. Rate increases will now have to be justified through health expenditures and rescission is altogether dead. Given our national health situation, it doesn't seem like a stretch to suggest that there is a surplus demand that has gone unfulfilled due to that fear of losing one's insurance.

People will get used to being able to take care of common ailments. Once they've got a taste for it and the inevitable rate increases come (Even if legally justified for health spending), I believe the nation will choose adding a public option over reducing the access that PPACA provides.

 

[Oblivion]

Isn't Eric Cantor next in line for succession?

 

[The Librarian]

I would say the US government is worse than Venezuela's. I do not think Venezuelans are oppressed at all in comparison to Americans (possibly less),

A man guilty of raping a woman may avoid punishment if he marries the victim before sentencing.

Ha, no.

 

[Diablos]

I doubt they'd form around Ryan, especially after his failed VP bid and his budget being used against Republicans to great effect in recent elections.

Honestly, I have no idea who they would go with. The mainstream would probably form around Cantor though, in order to keep some semblance of sanity.

Isn't Cantor even more conservative than Boehner?

 

[bonercop]

Ha, no.

then again...

 

[Diablos]

Fuck, it's true. Shitty American healthcare allowed BB to be such a great show!

At least it benefits television plots!

 

[empty vessel]

A man guilty of raping a woman may avoid punishment if he marries the victim before sentencing.

Ha, no.

This is dubious. It comes from a State Department report without citation. To the extent any such law is on the books anywhere in Venezuela, it is undoubtedly archaic.

The Venezuelan government over the last decade has been more progressive on women's rights than any previous Venezuelan government. It is also more progressive than the Venezuelan population as a whole and is leading the way forward in this regard (its recently departed president referred to himself publicly as a feminist). The US government over the last three decades, by contrast, is less progressive than the US population and has by and large hindered the progression of women's rights here. Just like with economies, one cannot simply cross-compare the two societies as a means of judging governance. That is not how one judges a government. Just as governments cannot magically create wealth but must deal with the state of economic development as they find it, governments also must deal with the cultural attitudes of their society as they find them. They can lead, but they cannot turn a paternalistic or misogynistic society into a feminist utopia over night.

Although there are deep cultural problems throughout Latin American when it comes to the fair treatment of women, the Venezuelan government is easily the most progressive and proactive in this regard. Like many societies, Venezuela has a culturo-historical problem with unreported domestic abuse. The Venezuelan government has made efforts to combat this. The Organic Law on the Right of Women to a Life Free of Violence criminalized physical, sexual, and psychological violence in the home, the community, and at work. It also criminalized sexual harassment (not criminal in the US), and established tribunals specializing in cases of gender-based violence.

Cultural problems aside, the Venezuelan government is far more favorable to women than the US government. It isn't even close. In Venezuela, for example, domestic house work is considered productive labor that earns one retirement benefits. This was deemed so important it was put in the constitution that was supported by the Venezuelan government and adopted by popular vote. Also in the constitution are the rights of equal pay for equal work, the right to a life without violence per the International Convention against Discrimination against Women (which only the US and six other states--Iran, Palau, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tonga--have not ratified), and the right to protection and public assistance during maternity in all its phases. The government also created Misión Madres del Barrio, which paid low-income homemakers a salary. Venezuela also has a Women’s Bank, which provides low interest loans and even non-financial services like training and counseling to women and women’s cooperatives. The strong legal norms advocated and adopted by the Venezuelan government promoting the physical, psychological, and economic security of women will undoubtedly go a long way to help change cultural attitudes in the society.

You should understand, too, that the domestic political forces aligned against the Venezuelan government, including its progressive stance towards women, are the forces aligned with the US government.

 

[The Librarian]

Whatever you say, EV. You're always right.

 

[empty vessel]

Whatever you say, EV. You're always right.

Don't take my word for it. Or for anything, for that matter.

 

[PhoenixDark]

This is Boehner's last tenure as speaker but I also don't think he'll be ousted before 2014. If it were to happen though, I can't help but think Cantor would be able to put a big enough coalition together to win. That being said there are marks against him: he'll have Boehner's stench, and he has also proven to be less crazy than he once was. This is the guy who made Obama lose his cool for once, during a private budget meeting in 2011. Since then he has taken a couple moderate positions but hasn't really followed through on anything (VRA comes to mind).

Plus he'd be the first Jewish speaker, which will win him support. Finally can you guys think of any other candidate who democrats would support? Issa, Ryan, and others would unite democrats behind Pelosi.

This weekend will be interesting. Basically the government will shut down unless Boehner passes the senate bill. Is he going to play around with a one week extension bill that the senate won't even see until 2PM Monday? Or a CR with an Obamacare delay? Either way the government shuts down. Maybe a shutdown of a few hours isn't a big deal to him? And if he cuts the far right loose, tells them the fight will continue during the debt limit increase, and thus passes a clean CR...could that be the last straw?

 

[jamesinclair]

There was general consensus that the sequester would never happen and it would be aborted at the last minute.

How's that working out for you guys?

 

[RustyNails]

Doesn't Boehner have enough votes with democrats and moderate republicans? He gave teanuts their chance and it blew up. Why is he still screwing around?

 

[The Librarian]

Doesn't Boehner have enough votes with democrats and moderate republicans? He gave teanuts their chance and it blew up. Why is he still screwing around?

Republicans have told Democrats there could be a vote on the CR today. House GOP is meeting at 12 to discuss how to move forward.

 

[BSsBrolly]

Read an article that most people have no clue the individual exchanges open up Oct 1st... Why aren't there adds playing 24/7 stating this with an 800 number to call for info about where to sign up?

 

[The Librarian]

Read an article that most people have no clue the individual exchanges open up Oct 1st... Why aren't there adds playing 24/7 stating this with an 800 number to call for info about where to sign up?

There are ads playing in states, like CA and Oregon, that are really committed to the law's success. Even so, most agency heads don't expect that many people to sign up on the first day or early on. There's an article on Wonkblog about it.

 

[Diablos]

Republicans have told Democrats there could be a vote on the CR today. House GOP is meeting at 12 to discuss how to best fuck the country over.

ftfy

 

[The Librarian]

On my phone: https://twitter.com/robertcostanro/status/383988234839003136

One year delay of ACA plus repeal of med. device tax.

Welp. Shutdown.

 

[Diablos]

On my phone: https://twitter.com/robertcostanro/status/383988234839003136

One year delay if ACA plus repeal of med. device tax.

Welp. Shutdown.

ffs.

Can't Reid just throw it out again and make Bonehead strip it down even more?

 

[Fenderputty]

I wonder how pissed Boehner is at Ted Cruz and the tea party faction right now. Must be a bitch being the house speaker these last couple terms.

 

[Drakeon]

I wonder how pissed Boehner is at Ted Cruz and the tea party faction right now. Must be a bitch being the house speaker these last couple terms.

They created this mess, it's entirely their own fault.

 

[Y2Kev]

Politically, shouldn't the dems be hoping for a shutdown? Republicans are going to get destroyed.

 

[Drakeon]

Politically, shouldn't the dems be hoping for a shutdown? Republicans are going to get destroyed.

Well, secretly? Sure. It did them no favors in 1996, that's for sure.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Sounds like House will pass a one week CR today, which means the government will shut down. Unless far right members refuse to pass it, at which point Boehner could crawl to democrats.

 

[Fenderputty]

They created this mess, it's entirely their own fault.

Ooo I get that. But picturing Boehner's anger right now is fun. It's not much, but I got to find some joy when I know nothing is going to get done with regards to meaningful legislation for a while.

 

[TacticalFox88]

I hope they're stupid enough to try this in 2014, so that way the chances of them getting voted out goes up exponentially.

 

[Diablos]

Hey PD/PP/Rice Cooks, I thought you said Boehner assured the fat cats that he would not allow for this to occur. ;_;

 

[bonercop]

Would shutting down the government really cause that much harm?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Hey PD/PP/Rice Cooks, I thought you said Boehner assured the fat cats that he would not allow for this to occur. ;_;

I said there's a 0% chance of default, and that Boehner has already showed his hand by assuring K/Wall Street that a default won't occur. I've felt a government shutdown could go either way though; honestly if we shut down for a couple days is that going to truly harm the GOP?

here we go

House To Vote On Government Funding Bill With Obamacare Delay
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/house-to-vote-on-government-funding-bill-with-obamacare-delay

 

[Diablos]

I said there's a 0% chance of default, and that Boehner has already showed his hand by assuring K/Wall Street that a default won't occur. I've felt a government shutdown could go either way though; honestly if we shut down for a couple days is that going to truly harm the GOP?

here we go

House To Vote On Government Funding Bill With Obamacare Delay
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/house-to-vote-on-government-funding-bill-with-obamacare-delay

Why wouldn't it harm the GOP?

 

[Tamanon]

ffs.

Can't Reid just throw it out again and make Bonehead strip it down even more?

Correct, can just do the same thing again.

 

[bonercop]

Why wouldn't it harm the GOP?

What about the people? what are the consequences of a government shutdown? Essential services will still be available, right?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Would shutting down the government really cause that much harm?

Yes, especially in a fragile economy. Think the impact of the sequester, multiplied several times over.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Leaders plan on bringing up a bill that delays Obamacare for a year, repeals the law's medical device tax and adds a military pay exemption in the event of a shutdown, a GOP leadership aide told TPM. It will fund the government through Dec. 15.

Government shuts down at midnight Monday. Later that day I'm guessing democrats will pass another clean CR, at which point the House does...who knows.

 

[Carpe Libertatem]

They definitely could have gotten just a repeal of the medical device tax if they really wanted. I guess they think they can win this politically.

 

[The Librarian]

House GOP's new CR delays Obamacare by one year, repeals medical device tax, exempts military pay & funds gov't thru Dec. 15. Vote today.

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/383999514048471040

Republicans chanted, 'Vote! Vote! Vote!' inside the conference meeting when leaders unveiled the plan to attach ObamaCare measures to CR

https://twitter.com/russellberman/status/383999220690468864

Rep. Culberson (R-TX) on the big applause moment after GOP resolved to vote for CR: "I said, like 9/11, 'lets roll!'"

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/383999610865602560

Amash on Cruz's House influence: "It's cooperation... we've developed a strategy." Labrador, Amash, Massie, others huddled w/ Cruz on Th

https://twitter.com/robertcostaNRO/status/384007931919740928

Fucking Cruz riling them up.

Repeal of medical device tax will cost $29 billion: http://cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/43471-hr6079.pdf

 

[thepotatoman]

Why wouldn't it harm the GOP?

I don't get it. The only real way for Republicans to actually end Obamacare is to have the house, senate, and presidency. When you look at it like that, this is doing nothing but hurting their chances to end Obamacare.

There's also the whole problem where Government shutdowns pointlessly losses the government money, which Republicans are supposed to be against.

Boehner and many other powerful Republicans were adamant about avoiding a shutdown, so I assume there's still time for one more go around before shutdown?

^

"I said, like 9/11, 'lets roll!'"

What does that mean?

 

[Link]

These people are morons. And that's putting it nicely.

 

[Piecake]

They definitely could have gotten just a repeal of the medical device tax if they really wanted. I guess they think they can win this politically.

Pretty much, if they took out the delay for a year and just went with the device and military pay, that might actually have a shot. I know Minnesota's senators would probably go along with it (Medtronic)

Personally, a better tactic would be to get rid of the employer mandate. I think that is going to cause more harm than good, both economically and politically, so we should just scrap it. Of course, then the republicans would have one less thing to stop bitching about and say, see! Obamacare is costing jobs and ruining the economy!

 

[The Librarian]

RT @SabrinaSiddiqui: Rep. John Fleming on Ted Cruz: "He's played a huge role. He's been the rallying force."

https://twitter.com/samsteinhp/status/384003464218824704

Fucking Cruz.

Also, GOP leadership will not whip for the bill. Sounds like they don't need to anyway.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Seems like that medical device tax could get through if republicans really wanted it to. Include Obamacare funding+eliminate medical device tax, seems like that could pass the senate.

Now we wait and see what democrats do I guess, and who the public sides with.

 

[Fenderputty]

Wasn't there a poll recently regarding Obamacare that came to the conclusion that most people think we should give it a shot? Even people who don't really like it he idea of the ppaca IIRC

 

[gcubed]

Wait... Delay the aca for a year and fund the government for 75, days? Really?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'd support killing the employer mandate.

 

[The Librarian]

uggghhhhh

@robertcostaNRO: RT @seungminkim After smoke break, @SpeakerBoehner asked about shutdown. Instead, he blows kisses at a reporter

https://twitter.com/robertcostanro/status/384013397869600768

 

[dabig2]

Haha, what a joke. Delay Obamacare by a year for a 3 month reprieve on the crisis.

Fucking clown shoes. If they get away with this, then it might be time for me to find a new country after I obtain my masters.

 

[jamesinclair]

Would shutting down the government really cause that much harm?

Not really, government is pretty useless.

 

[Black Mamba]

Looks like boehner is going to give the GOP a few days or so of a shutdown to get it out of their system.

If they dig their heels in, they're done for.