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PoliGAF 2013 |OT2| Worth 77% of OT1

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bonercop

Member
personality, lack of corruption, union busting is popular (people would rather drag other peoples benefits down rather than organize themselves), new jersey isn't really that 'blue'

looking further into it now, you even have all these democrats propping him up by endorsing him. What the hell? why aren't they backing their own candidate?
 
This kinda reminds me of Microsoft's policy reversals and how people were applauding them for realizing that they were about to do some very stupid things. I wonder how far the GOP is willing to go just to make it look like they had a plan here and succeeded.

I don't see how they are going to recover from this as a party if they back down without making any real point.
 
looking further into it now, you even have all these democrats propping him up by endorsing him. What the hell? why aren't they backing their own candidate?

New Jersey is still a machine politics state, where you have local bosses who hand out patronage jobs like they're candy. Since a lot of those people aren't actually all that liberal (many times, they're just as racist as your average Tea Partier and hate unions that aren't their own) and they like their own power, it's easy to keep Christie in office than cotton to the idea of a progressive-ish reformist actually coming into office.
 

Jooney

Member
That's the thing. Right now the talk seems to be about republicans being willing to settle for some type of irrelevant trophy so they can say they "won" something - even if it's just Obama coming to the table to negotiate. No. Not only do they deserve nothing, but Boehner should be shamed to the maximum level possible.

The precedent being set shouldn't only be for future presidents, it should be for future Speakers and majority leaders: threaten the US government or its credit rating and you'll end up like John Boehner. This is what he's going to be remembered by.

Co-signed.

No concessions. No bone thrown out. Let them pay the full political price.
 
guys, why the hell is chris christie popular in NJ? his track record has practically been identical to other Republican nutcases.

It makes no sense.

Look at Trenton. Look at Camden. What has he done to fix things? Hell, look at the Giants. He ruins everything he touches.

True story, look what happened to the Jersey shore after a Chris Christie photo tour

2013-10-05131235_zps5b7dafd1.jpg
 
Christie is cruising on Sandy sympathy and let's face it, people rally around charismatic figures after a crisis; I think Bush was a horrible president but I still get chills when I watch his megaphone speech on top of the ground zero rubble. Sooner or later Christie will fall back to reality: a shitty state with high taxes and high unemployment. He has cut a lot of money from state workers but what else has he accomplished as governor?
 

Aylinato

Member
Christie is cruising on Sandy sympathy and let's face it, people rally around charismatic figures after a crisis; I think Bush was a horrible president but I still get chills when I watch his megaphone speech on top of the ground zero rubble. Sooner or later Christie will fall back to reality: a shitty state with high taxes and high unemployment. He has cut a lot of money from state workers but what else has he accomplished as governor?


Getting stuck in a bath tub? O I'm sorry I confused him with Taft.
 

AniHawk

Member

i wonder if this is a gambit to lure democrats into not voting for it until a clean cr is passed, thereby shifting the blame of the debt ceiling onto them and muddying the waters more.

it also depends how short-term the debt ceiling thing will be.
 

pigeon

Banned

I'm kind of with Scheiber on this -- I'm not really sure what this accomplishes. How does this get Boehner off the hook for raising the debt ceiling six weeks from now? We'll just be right back in the same place, except now Republicans can claim the President negotiated dishonestly.
 

Jooney

Member

One of the GOP sources cautioned that the exact length of the short term debt ceiling bill is not yet worked out. It could be six weeks; it could be a bit shorter.

Six weeks? GTFO.

The GOP are pleading for anything now. They're like a boy telling a girl "oh c'mon, just the tip!"

You lose, GOP. You get nothing. Good day!
 
Guys, as insane as it sounds, sometimes reporters make mistakes. Leave the man alone. He has a proven record of being a fantastic journalist. He apologized and took the blame for it and never once tried to act as though it wasn't a big deal.
 
Christie is cruising on Sandy sympathy and let's face it, people rally around charismatic figures after a crisis; I think Bush was a horrible president but I still get chills when I watch his megaphone speech on top of the ground zero rubble. Sooner or later Christie will fall back to reality: a shitty state with high taxes and high unemployment. He has cut a lot of money from state workers but what else has he accomplished as governor?

Well the Tea Party already disowned him because he praised Obama.
 
I'm kind of with Scheiber on this -- I'm not really sure what this accomplishes. How does this get Boehner off the hook for raising the debt ceiling six weeks from now? We'll just be right back in the same place, except now Republicans can claim the President negotiated dishonestly.

There's no time to make a deal, anyway, so they have to get at least this.

And Obama has to sign it if there's no real conditions on it (let's talk isn't one) because saying no puts the default on his shoulders since the GOP gets nothing substantial for it.

It'll be interesting if they ask for the medical device tax. If they do, Obama/Reid should then demand a full repeal of the sequester cuts. I'd be fine with that trade-off for sure.
 

ISOM

Member
I think if Republicans want a six week extension of the debt limit that it's ok, because I don't think they are crazy enough to put the country through this shit twice in the same year. I think right now they are just trying to find their way out of this mess the least politically damaging way. Although I could be wrong because you can never underestimate republican stupidity.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Let's do this every six weeks you guys.

Six? That's too long. Once a month!

I think if Republicans want a six week extension of the debt limit that it's ok, because I don't think they are crazy enough to put the country through this shit twice in the same year. I think right now they are just trying to find their way out of this mess the least politically damaging way. Although I could be wrong because you can never underestimate republican stupidity.

Judging from guys like Yoho and Cruz, I'd say they are exactly that crazy.
 
if the GOP extends the DL for 6 weeks without any real concessions, what is the point of keeping the government shutdown?

They have no real leverage on the government shutdown. The Dems won't give them anything on Obamacare and there's no threat of default. All there is is the status quo, which obviously the Dems don't like but not to the point that they'd cave on anything relevant.

I don't get the endgame here at all. But then again, it's been clear for a while the GOP has absolutely no idea what it's doing.
 

ISOM

Member
There's no time to make a deal, anyway, so they have to get at least this.

And Obama has to sign it if there's no real conditions on it (let's talk isn't one) because saying no puts the default on his shoulders since the GOP gets nothing substantial for it.

It'll be interesting if they ask for the medical device tax. If they do, Obama/Reid should then demand a full repeal of the sequester cuts. I'd be fine with that trade-off for sure.

I thought the medical device tax was intended as a way to fund the ACA. Is it not necessary for aca to function properly?
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
if the GOP extends the DL for 6 weeks without any real concessions, what is the point of keeping the government shutdown?

They have no real leverage on the government shutdown. The Dems won't give them anything on Obamacare and there's no threat of default. All there is is the status quo, which obviously the Dems don't like but not to the point that they'd cave on anything relevant.

I don't get the endgame here at all. But then again, it's been clear for a while the GOP has absolutely no idea what it's doing.

I think for a lot of the Tea Party, the shut down is the win. Which is scary as hell.
 

pigeon

Banned
if the GOP extends the DL for 6 weeks without any real concessions, what is the point of keeping the government shutdown?

They have no real leverage on the government shutdown. The Dems won't give them anything on Obamacare and there's no threat of default. All there is is the status quo, which obviously the Dems don't like but not to the point that they'd cave on anything relevant.

I don't get the endgame here at all. But then again, it's been clear for a while the GOP has absolutely no idea what it's doing.

If I'm understanding the plan correctly, the ideal Boehner timeline is something like

* pass the short DL with the negotiation requirement
* negotiate a grand bargain in six weeks
* pass the grand bargain to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling further
* never face consequences

The big takeaway from the Politico cover on Boehner today is that Boehner really does view himself as a deal-maker and really does want to make a deal with Obama. That's where all this Grand Bargain stuff comes from in the first place! So if Boehner's saying his plan is to negotiate, there's a good chance that might actually be his plan.

The big problem with this plan, of course, is that Boehner hasn't demonstrated any ability to provide Republican votes for a bargain, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to provide Republican CONCESSIONS for a bargain. That's presumably Paul Ryan's job -- but it remains to be seen whether Ryan can actually bargain, or just extort.

I thought the medical device tax was intended as a way to fund the ACA. Is it not necessary for aca to function properly?

It's just money. As long as that money comes from somewhere, it doesn't really matter for the law's purposes. It'd probably be nice to hang onto it, but the reality is that the taxes on Obamacare were mainly put on there to make the bill deficit-neutral, so now that it won't be scored again, it's okay if we jettison some of them (with the exception of the individual mandate).
 
If I'm understanding the plan correctly, the ideal Boehner timeline is something like

* pass the short DL with the negotiation requirement
* negotiate a grand bargain in six weeks
* pass the grand bargain to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling further
* never face consequences

The big takeaway from the Politico cover on Boehner today is that Boehner really does view himself as a deal-maker and really does want to make a deal with Obama. That's where all this Grand Bargain stuff comes from in the first place! So if Boehner's saying his plan is to negotiate, there's a good chance that might actually be his plan.

The big problem with this plan, of course, is that Boehner hasn't demonstrated any ability to provide Republican votes for a bargain, and he hasn't demonstrated any ability to provide Republican CONCESSIONS for a bargain. That's presumably Paul Ryan's job -- but it remains to be seen whether Ryan can actually bargain, or just extort.



It's just money. As long as that money comes from somewhere, it doesn't really matter for the law's purposes. It'd probably be nice to hang onto it, but the reality is that the taxes on Obamacare were mainly put on there to make the bill deficit-neutral, so now that it won't be scored again, it's okay if we jettison some of them (with the exception of the individual mandate).

Right, I get that. But while they negotiate for the next 7 weeks, the government will be shut down. This doesn't seem to make sense to me.

And if there is no grand bargain, the GOP will simply have to move the DL again (as they are here) for no concessions...with the gov't still shutdown?

My point is that by moving the DL, I see no reason for the GOP to continue the gov't shutdown. It gives them no real leverage and if anything, hurts them as the weeks go by. And in 7 weeks from now, lots of people will be signed up on Obamacare. Why bother keeping it?

I'd imagine if this DL thing passes, the shutdown won't last the full 6 weeks. Maybe nowhere close.
 
Talking about a short term solution, the president told House Democrats, "If that's what (House Speaker John) Boehner needs to climb out of the tree that he's stuck in, then that's something we should look at," according to the House Democratic member.
.

On the one hand, sick burn, Bams. On the other hand, does anyone really want to do this every six weeks (or less) until the GOP loses a few House seats next year and realizes that yelling obscenities from gerrymandered districts is destroying their entire party and dragging everyone else down with them?
 
My point is that by moving the DL, I see no reason for the GOP to continue the gov't shutdown. It gives them no real leverage and if anything, hurts them as the weeks go by. And in 7 weeks from now, lots of people will be signed up on Obamacare. Why bother keeping it?

Why does the GOP do anything these days? Frothing up the base. (Straight from my Facebook feed, unfortunately. No previous indication that this friend was a loon.)
 

pigeon

Banned
Right, I get that. But while they negotiate for the next 7 weeks, the government will be shut down. This doesn't seem to make sense to me.

I'm not sure "sense" is the right metric here. If Boehner thinks he can reopen the government with a grand bargain safely, but not with a clean CR, then he'd obviously prefer to leave the government closed until he can get a grand bargain. This isn't politically pleasant for the GOP or good for the country, obviously, but at this point nothing is.

Basically, I don't think Boehner is trying to position himself for maximum leverage here, he's just trying to find something he can get away with.

And if there is no grand bargain, the GOP will simply have to move the DL again (as they are here) for no concessions...with the gov't still shutdown?

One valuable takeaway from Boehner's previous strategies is that he clearly doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about what happens if he FAILS to make a deal. He's kind of a perpetual optimist. But yes, presumably if he blows it he'll just be back in the shit and have to pass the clean CR and debt ceiling increase.
 
I'm not sure "sense" is the right metric here. If Boehner thinks he can reopen the government with a grand bargain safely, but not with a clean CR, then he'd obviously prefer to leave the government closed until he can get a grand bargain. This isn't politically pleasant for the GOP or good for the country, obviously, but at this point nothing is.

Basically, I don't think Boehner is trying to position himself for maximum leverage here, he's just trying to find something he can get away with.



One valuable takeaway from Boehner's previous strategies is that he clearly doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about what happens if he FAILS to make a deal. He's kind of a perpetual optimist. But yes, presumably if he blows it he'll just be back in the shit and have to pass the clean CR and debt ceiling increase.

I largely agree with you but I don't see how the government stays shutdown til the end of November. I guess the GOP is stupid enough to do it, but man that's a long fucking time.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Just yesterday they were talking about how default wouldn't be that bad, and today they're talking close to that "unconditional surrender" they were afraid of? Amazing what one bad day of poll numbers can do.

This is all thanks to the American people knowing who to actually place the blame on. I'm actually surprised how the approval ratings moved so much so quickly. I assumed the Republican party of today would always get at least 40% approval thanks to the modern Republican media machine.

Things are looking very good now. Still a tiny bit worried since Boehner's flip flopping has become hard to predict, but I find it hard to believe Republicans will forget the lesson they learned today in only 6 weeks.

Don't worry about being bored though. There's still plenty of fun to be had in watching how the Republicans deal with this defeat, and in worrying about Boehner being replaced by someone radical enough to not pass any debt increases ever.
 
Just yesterday they were talking about how default wouldn't be that bad, and today they're talking close to that "unconditional surrender" they were afraid of? Amazing what one bad day of poll numbers can do.

This is all thanks to the American people knowing who to actually place the blame on. I'm actually surprised how the approval ratings moved so much so quickly. I assumed the Republican party of today would always get at least 40% approval thanks to the modern Republican media machine.

Things are looking very good now. Still a tiny bit worried since Boehner's flip flopping has become hard to predict, but I find it hard to believe Republicans will forget the lesson they learned today in only 6 weeks.

Don't worry about being bored though. There's still plenty of fun to be had in watching how the Republicans deal with this defeat, and in worrying about Boehner being replaced by someone radical enough to not pass any debt increases ever.

The Republican party will always get 45% of the National vote, or so. This is of course unless there is a serious disparity in the popularity of the candidates, say Hillary vs Cruz.
 

Diablos

Member
They better not get away with 6 weeks. And if it comes with a medical device tax repeal they are out of their minds. Democrats better not go along with it.

Christie would be a formidable candidate as I just said in the other political thread.

He'd be the first obese President since Taft. :D
 

Clevinger

Member
The Republican party will always get 45% of the National vote, or so. This is of course unless there is a serious disparity in the popularity of the candidates, say Hillary vs Cruz.

I think they'd get 45 even with Cruz. Cruz isn't a true believer; he's an opportunist. Only reason he's saying this stuff is it puts the spotlight on him. He'd have no problem pulling a Romney and flip flopping on everything for the general election, and similar to Romney the media won't call him on it enough for it to matter all that much.

The incredible skill in modern day republican propaganda plus an incompetent media means we'll never see a Republican do as bad as Goldwater again. At least for the foreseeable future.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
NYT has a hilarious article today about some ultraconservative district in Georgia and how they all hate Obama. One guy doesn't have health insurance and just had major surgery but hates Obamacare and when asked how he'd fix it he proposes single payer.

These people are just incredible.
 
NYT has a hilarious article today about some ultraconservative district in Georgia and how they all hate Obama. One guy doesn't have health insurance and just had major surgery but hates Obamacare and when asked how he'd fix it he proposes single payer.

These people are just incredible.

Graves district? I could of swore I read that last week
 

izakq

Member
House GOP Meeting with Obama

President Barack Obama was planning to invite the entire House Republican Conference to the White House on Thursday, as part of an effort to find a way to end the government shutdown and avoid a debt default next week. But the office of House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) indicated Wednesday that only some Republicans would be attending the meeting, none of whom are members of the Tea Party flank.

I saw Virginia Foxx's name as part of the 18 and thought she was part of the Tea Party. Anyway, if the bolded is true, I'm surprised that thereI hasn't been any kind of screaming from the Tea Party platform in not being represented at that meeting.
 
I thought the medical device tax was intended as a way to fund the ACA. Is it not necessary for aca to function properly?

Taxes don't fund anything. The medical device tax isn't necessary, but the Republicans desire to repeal it demonstrates that they are unopposed to increasing government debt (which is a good thing!). Rather, their objective is to inflict harm on Americans by slashing programs that help them (not a good thing!).
 

xnipx

Member
Somebody help me out here. I thought the government was shut down because of the whole debt limit thing in the first place. If they increase the debt limit for 6 weeks or a month or whatever. Why would the government remain shut down??
 

thefro

Member
Somebody help me out here. I thought the government was shut down because of the whole debt limit thing in the first place. If they increase the debt limit for 6 weeks or a month or whatever. Why would the government remain shut down??

There's two different things going on:
- The budget for the fiscal year ran out at the beginning of October. Congress hasn't passed a new budget, nor a contuining resolution to keep the government open

- The US government will hit its debt ceiling in 7 days (it has to be raised by Congress). This doesn't authorize spending (that's what the budget does) but just says we can issue more Bonds to pay the bills we've already incurred that are law.
 
Somebody help me out here. I thought the government was shut down because of the whole debt limit thing in the first place. If they increase the debt limit for 6 weeks or a month or whatever. Why would the government remain shut down??

2 separate things. A proper budget was never passed, so the government has been operating via continuing resolutions. The last one expired, hence the shutdown. The debt limit is separate from that.
 
Hey, you're right. It's dated last week. Derp, I didn't even notice.
I thought it might have been another. Forgot to post it here after reading it. Quotes like that though show America isn't this center-right country that the GOP and media trolls pretend we are.

Reminds me that there was someone the other day who was saying the democrats are center right but I never got to respond to him. Both of these are memes that never die and aren't born out by comparisons with other countries and instead rely on cherry-picked examples (aka pet issues) and ignorance of the conservatism of so called center left countries.
 
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