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[benjipwns]

I think the map is going to be a little more competitive as I'm unsure about the black vote staying steady in terms of share and margin. Also women.

benji found a friend and came out of his shell a little bit. I'd forgotten he was PoliGAF's favorite Liberteer.

I got told a newly minted one was fucking things up, so I needed to make it worse.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Carville is right lol. Romney's main 2012 argument was that Obama's policies were destroying the economy. Barring an economic disaster it's very likely that Obama's terms will end with the US in a solid position. This year could see some very impressive growth (hence shutdown attempts by the GOP). If Romney couldn't beat Obama with the economy halfway in the shitter, how the hell will he beat Hillary with the economy rolling?

 

[The Technomancer]

I got told a newly minted one was fucking things up, so I needed to make it worse.

Hey I kind of at least respect your positions, I just think that you're wrong. This guy seems actively selfish.

 

[ivysaur12]

Carville is right lol. Romney's main 2012 argument was that Obama's policies were destroying the economy. Barring an economic disaster it's very likely that Obama's terms will end with the US in a solid position. This year could see some very impressive growth (hence shutdown attempts by the GOP). If Romney couldn't beat Obama with the economy halfway in the shitter, how the hell will he beat Hillary with the economy rolling?

Also, like, all of his promises already all happening with an Obama presidency. So, like, what's he going to run on?

 

[jamesinclair]

Carville is right lol. Romney's main 2012 argument was that Obama's policies were destroying the economy. Barring an economic disaster it's very likely that Obama's terms will end with the US in a solid position. This year could see some very impressive growth (hence shutdown attempts by the GOP). If Romney couldn't beat Obama with the economy halfway in the shitter, how the hell will he beat Hillary with the economy rolling?

Ask Al Gore that question.

And you guys did see that Rand Paul confirmed he won't run right?

I hope Christie runs from jail

 

[benjipwns]

Also, like, all of his promises already all happening with an Obama presidency. So, like, what's he going to run on?

How can you trust Hillary to take that 3AM call after Benghazi?

I hope Christie runs from jail

Debs got 3.5% doing this.

 

[B-Dubs]

Ask Al Gore that question.

And you guys did see that Rand Paul confirmed he won't run right?

I hope Christie runs from jail

Al Gore was quite literally the world's most boring man.

Rand Paul isn't running? Too bad, I guess he likes a steady job better than the extra cash.

If Christie ran from jail I would die. Imagine him doing the debates via skype :lol

 

[ivysaur12]

How can you trust Hillary to take that 3AM call after Benghazi?

If she slept through the first one…

Ask Al Gore that question.

And you guys did see that Rand Paul confirmed he won't run right?

I hope Christie runs from jail

I don't see anything on Rand not running…

 

[NeoXChaos]

If she slept through the first one…



I don't see anything on Rand not running…

I think he means paul ryan.

Yeah the EC sets the bar astronomically high for Republicans. With the way things are now, florida can seal the deal for our girl hillary.The R's would have to run the table in order to win.

 

[jamesinclair]

Shit it's the other Paul that won't run. They're all the same to me.

And Al Gore managed to lose after eight years of unprecedented national growth. Hillary is half the candidate he was.

 

[benjipwns]

Rand said he won't run if the polls don't look like he has a shot. I suspect this means he'll run until whatever date he has to stop to keep his Senate seat unless he's leading or co-leading in the polls. He won't run to the convention like his dad.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Rand said he won't run if the polls don't look like he has a shot. I suspect this means he'll run until whatever date he has to stop to keep his Senate seat unless he's leading or co-leading in the polls. He won't run to the convention like his dad.

He doesn't have long. February 2016 is the senate filing deadline. Primaries start in February 2016 tentatively.

 

[WayneMorse]

And Al Gore managed to lose after eight years of unprecedented national growth. Hillary is half the candidate he was.

By November 2000 the dot com bubble was pretty much dead and the economy was entering a mild recession.

Also the country was more conservative in 2000 than it is now.

 

[pigeon]

I think the map is going to be a little more competitive as I'm unsure about the black vote staying steady in terms of share and margin. Also women.

Wait, you think Hillary will do worse among women than Obama?

 

[NeoXChaos]

By November 2000 the dot com bubble was pretty much dead and the economy was entering a mild recession.

Also the country was more conservative in 2000 than it is now.

there is a sea of red and pockets of blue looking at the latest congressional and state level elections. x(

Republicans control majority except for the presidency. It feels like the country atleast in terms of face value has gotten more conservative but I do I agree with your premise.

Then again, if people voted like they do in presidential elections in turnout, i think the country is more liberal in that scenario.

Theoretically, if we slammed all elections for everything(Gov, statewide, legislatures, senate etc) in a presidential election year, results would be different quite considerably.

0.00001% of ever happening or passing through any congress/state legislature.

 

[benjipwns]

Wait, you think Hillary will do worse among women than Obama?

Women hate women. Especially if a stud like Christie gets the nod.

 

[pigeon]

there is a sea of red and pockets of blue looking at the latest congressional and state level elections. x(

Republicans control majority except for the presidency. It feels like the country atleast in terms of face value has gotten more conservative but I do I agree with your premise.

That's crazy, though.

In 2000 it was illegal for gay people to serve openly in the military, and this was considered a progressive step, since the preceding policy had been that it was illegal for them to serve at all.

In 2000 it was illegal in 50 states for homosexuals to get married.

In 2000 it was illegal in 50 states to use marijuana for medicinal purposes.

I don't want to harp on this, but the country has moved way to the left since 2000. Obviously the movement hasn't always been as rapid as it was for gay rights, but on nearly every issue, if you were a leftist Democrat in 2000, you'd be much closer to the mainstream today.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think the map is going to be a little more competitive as I'm unsure about the black vote staying steady in terms of share and margin. Also women.

Blacks have gone ~90% to the Democrats since Clinton. I don't see why that would change now. Turnout could depress a little I guess but Obama will still be president and stumping day and night for the 2016 nominee. They'll show.

 

[Snake]

Shit it's the other Paul that won't run. They're all the same to me.

And Al Gore managed to lose after eight years of unprecedented national growth. Hillary is half the candidate he was.

If Hillary in 2016 is anything like she was in 2008, she'll be a much stronger candidate than Gore. Nothing that liberals like about Al Gore nowadays was on display in 2000.

 

[ivysaur12]

(10% of pop) 84% of black voters voted for Bill Clinton in 1996.

(10% of pop) 90% of black voters voted for Al Gore in 2000.

(11% of pop) 88% of black voters voted for John Kerry in 2004.

(13% of pop) 95% of black voters voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

(13% of pop) 93% of black voters voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

-----

(52% of pop) 55% of female voters voted for Bill Clinton in 1996.

(52% of pop) 54% of female voters voted for Al Gore in 2000.

(54% of pop) 51% of female voters voted for John Kerry in 2004.

(53% of pop) 56% of female voters voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

(53% of pop) 55% of female voters voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

-----

(5% of pop) 73% of latino voters voted for Bill Clinton in 1996.

(7% of pop) 62% of latino voters voted for Al Gore in 2000.

(8% of pop) 53% of latino voters voted for John Kerry in 2004.

(9% of pop) 67% of latino voters voted for Barack Obama in 2008.

(10% of pop) 71% of latino voters voted for Barack Obama in 2012.

Make all of this what you will.

My guess is that Hillary slightly underperforms with black voters (like, 88%), slightly over performs with female voters (like, 56-57%), and does about the same with latino voters, even if a Jeb or a Cruz is the nominee.

EDIT: Wow. White voters were 83% of the electorate in 1996. 72% of the electorate in 2012.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Man Clinton's numbers are even better when you consider Perot won 9% of the vote that year.

Guess the ladies just can't resist Bubba.

Btw if the Democrat performs the same as Kerry with the (projected) 2016 turnout they would win the popular vote. And his weak showing with Hispanics required Bush to bend over backwards appealing to them. That has to be a gloomy prospect for the GOP.

 

[benjipwns]

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/08/u...democratic-platform-echo-gore-s-campaign.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_presidential_campaign,_2000#Campaign_trail_and_platform

Biased comparison of the two platforms in 2000: http://www.eagleforum.org/psr/2000/oct00/psroct00.html

http://grid.ontheissues.org/Candidate_Grid_2000.htm
http://grid.ontheissues.org/Issue_Grid_2000.htm

 

[pigeon]

I think, in many ways, the more important piece of information is that people who vote in one election are about 40% more likely to vote in the next election.

Obama didn't just win his demographics -- he drove people who are frequently unlikely voters to the polls. Those people are going to vote heavily Democratic because, well, they're unlikely voters, who lean heavily Democratic. That'll be true regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. Those are four-dimensional coattails.

 

[ivysaur12]

I think, in many ways, the more important piece of information is that people who vote in one election are about 40% more likely to vote in the next election.

Obama didn't just win his demographics -- he drove people who are frequently unlikely voters to the polls. Those people are going to vote heavily Democratic because, well, they're unlikely voters, who lean heavily Democratic. That'll be true regardless of who the Democratic candidate is. Those are four-dimensional coattails.

Tesseract coattails!

 

[Wilsongt]

We need a new countdown: Days without a GOP member comparing Obama to Hitler.

Randy Weber ✔ @TXRandy14
Follow

Even Adolph Hitler thought it more important than Obama to get to Paris. (For all the wrong reasons.) Obama couldn't do it for right reasons

 

[TacticalFox88]

The clown car brigade is going to be even better this go around. It is going to be absolutely hilarious!

Dubs, I thought 2012 couldn't be topped.

It seems I never learn.

When you think there's a bottom of the barrel, you're always ALWAYS wrong.

 

[pigeon]

http://www.nytimes.com/2000/07/08/u...democratic-platform-echo-gore-s-campaign.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Gore_presidential_campaign,_2000#Campaign_trail_and_platform

Biased comparison of the two platforms in 2000: http://www.eagleforum.org/psr/2000/oct00/psroct00.html

http://grid.ontheissues.org/Candidate_Grid_2000.htm
http://grid.ontheissues.org/Issue_Grid_2000.htm

God, I forgot how terrible Gore was. In fact, that entire decade. Gore tried to run to the right on the drug war! He thought the problem with our society was violence in video games! He pledged not to add a single new job to the federal government! He supported three strikes, for God's sake!

It's almost worth being old to not have to deal with that any more.

Also, I am depressed that "pro-Americans with Disabilities Act" was once considered a political position.

 

[benjipwns]

Dubs, I thought 2012 couldn't be topped.

It seems I never learn.

When you think there's a bottom of the barrel, you're always ALWAYS wrong.

I don't know, 2016 has more "names" to it. And people in office currently or recently. When taken as a whole it seems like you're getting a good helping of the GOP.

2012 had Bachmann, Buddy Roemer, Thaddeus McCotter, a drugged up Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

It's like everybody forgets that Herman Cain was the GOP frontrunner for like a month. Fuck, even Donald Trump got involved and shot to the top of the polls for a brief period.

God, I forgot how terrible Gore was. In fact, that entire decade. Gore tried to run to the right on the drug war! He thought the problem with our society was violence in video games! He pledged not to add a single new job to the federal government! He supported three strikes, for God's sake!

It's almost worth being old to not have to deal with that any more.

Also, I am depressed that "pro-Americans with Disabilities Act" was once considered a political position.

He was even worse in the 80s. There's a 1988 debate where he borderline gets close to death penalty for drug dealers. (Which was actually a nearly acceptable position in the GOP primaries.) Was pro-life then too.

Can't forget Tipper's work on rock n' roll/rap music AND video games!

And Lieberman was the guy who had all the hearings on Night Trap and Mortal Kombat!

 

[ivysaur12]

I don't know, 2016 has more "names" to it. And people in office currently or recently. When taken as a whole it seems like you're getting a good helping of the GOP.

2012 had Bachmann, Buddy Roemer, Thaddeus McCotter, a drugged up Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich.

It's like everybody forgets that Herman Cain was the GOP frontrunner for like a month. Fuck, even Donald Trump got involved and shot to the top of the polls for a brief period.

But we have Ben Carson this year!!!

 

[benjipwns]

1996 is still the hard to top year.

James Baker, Carroll Campbell, and Donald Rumsfeld all form exploratory thingies.

Lynn Morley Martin participates in one debate.

Then you've got: Arlen Specter, Pete Wilson, Lamar Alexander, Phil Gramm, Steve Forbes, Dick Lugar, Bob Dornan (look this guy up), Alan Keyes, Pat Buchnan at the height of his popularity, Bob Dole and MORRY TAYLOR (spent $6 million* of his own money to not break 1% in any primary, topped his campaign platform with "kill all the lawyers") as your lineup.

All while Colin Powell casts a shadow over the entire thing and everyone begs him to run.

*This was back when entire Presidential campaigns from start to finish were like $80-100 million affairs.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

It's like everybody forgets that Herman Cain was the GOP frontrunner for like a month. Fuck, even Donald Trump got involved and shot to the top of the polls for a brief period.

I remember when Ras had him up two points on Obama. LOL.

 

[Avon Barksdale]

Bob Dornan (look this guy up)

During his political career, Dornan became known for his controversial or offensive statements. Among his remarks:

During a House debate in 1994, Dornan outed fellow Republican representative Steve Gunderson, accusing him of having a "revolving door on his closet."

In a 1986 U.S. House speech, he called Soviet journalist Vladimir Posner a "disloyal, betraying little Jew who sits there on television claiming that he is somehow or other a newsman." This was the only statement Dornan apologized for, saying, "That's the only thing in my life I ever lost sleep over". Dornan also said that he intended "to say 'Judas,' not 'Jew,'" as a rebuttal to Posner's insistence that the Soviet Union was free of anti-Semitism.

"Every lesbian spear chucker in this country is hoping I get defeated." — to a Los Angeles television reporter in 1992 regarding a female challenger in the primary election.

On a January 28, 1994 appearance on Politically Incorrect, Dornan declared it was "The Year of the Penis" due to recent events in the news. This was a joke in regard to the 1992 media and political reference as that election being referred to as "The Year of the Woman", when 4 women won election to the United States Senate.

"You are a slimy coward. Go register in another party." — to Orange County (CA) Republican Central Committee member William Dougherty after he supported Dornan's opponent in 1996.

Wow.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Oh god someone brought up Bob Dornan. Lol.

 

[Jooney]

Hard to deny it's rather puzzling that the US did not participate on any noteworthy level. It's the type of unforced error this administration has perfected over the last six years.

The administration is only bombing seven countries. Without a sufficiently high-level official at this symbolic protest we will never truly know Obama's stance on terror.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/mitt-romney-2016-114199.html


http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...68592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html


WHY IS THIS HAPPENING

If Romney just running for president resulted in an economic boom and falling gas prices, imagine the effect that Romney winning will have!

 

[HylianTom]

Man Clinton's numbers are even better when you consider Perot won 9% of the vote that year.

Guess the ladies just can't resist Bubba.

Btw if the Democrat performs the same as Kerry with the (projected) 2016 turnout they would win the popular vote. And his weak showing with Hispanics required Bush to bend over backwards appealing to them. That has to be a gloomy prospect for the GOP.

Between Bill and Hillary, I see the gender gap as being the quiet story that's lurking in the shadows for this election. Women absolutely adored Bill, and I suspect they're going to be a bit sensitive to certain types of dog-whistley attacks on Hillary.

If the economy stays on at least this "vaguely improving" path, I don't see how the GOP puts together 269EVs. Once Virginia's 13EVs are called on the East Coast, we might have a relatively boring Election Night.

In fact, I'll go even further and say that I'm not worried about victory (barring some freakish black swan-type event). I'm more curious about that moment of realization for the GOP - the moment when they admit that they have no chance of victory. Will they continue to look for unskewing mechanisms in their minds? What coping mechanisms will they grasp-onto? Will this affect turnout?

Spoiler

And what kind of comedy will we get from this?

(And this is going to sound odd.. but I miss CNN from 1996. Their coverage back then was much, muuuuch better.)

 

[Oblivion]

2012 was legendary in terms of the freakshow line up. You had:

- Michele Bachmann
- Rick Perry
- Newt Gingrich
- Rick Santorum
- Ron Paul

And of course, my personal pick for Republican nominee that year, Herman "the motherfucking Cain Train!" Cain.

Who do we have so far that are gonna be as entertaining as that line up of losers besides Huckabee and Ben Carson?

 

[benjipwns]

Also, say what you will about the 2000 election but it gave us the best SNL debate skits by far.

Uh, Jim, I've got some more Nigerian names for ya.

Spoiler

Jim, I'd like to interrupt here and answer that question as if it were my turn to speak. Jim, let me tell about a friend of mine. [ holds up a picture of an elderly woman ] Her name is Etta Munsen. She's 94, she's a widow living on Social Security in Sparta, Tennessee. Etta was born with only one kidney. She also suffers from poilo, spinal menengitis, lung, liver, and pancreatic cancer, an enlarged heart, diabetes, and a rare form of styctic acne. Now, several recent strokes, along with an unfortunate shark attack, have left her paralyzed and missing her right leg under the knee. Just last week she woke from a coma to find that, due to a hospital mix-up, her left arm had been amputated, infected with syphillis, and then reattached. As you can imagine, Jim.. Etta's prescription drug bills are staggering. They run to nearly $113 million a day! And she tells me that some weeks she has to choose between eating and treating her Lyme Disease. Now, under my plan, Etta's prescription drugs would be covered. Under my opponent's plan, her house would be burned to the ground. And that is wrong. That is just wrong!

 

[Diablos]

Then you can lose MN too and the result is still the same.

D: 275
R: 263

EDIT: Fuck, take away New Hampshire and the Democrat still wins.

EDIT 2: And with a Maine electoral vote, she STILL wins!

These maps are too close. STAHP

 

[Y2Kev]

I thought romney said after last election his whole family wished they hadn't even run. Is he just glutton for punishment? Do we need to see his creepy kids again?

 

[Diablos]

I don't think this was discussed yet, but the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons challenge to the ACA was just shot down by the SCOUTS.

What's the point I guess when King v. Burwell may very well cripple the law anyway... I have such a bad feeling about it...

 

[Plinko]

I thought romney said after last election his whole family wished they hadn't even run. Is he just glutton for punishment? Do we need to see his creepy kids again?

Sour grapes.

Wasn't it his son who said Mitt didn't even want to be president anyway?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Romney is a competitor who has already won everything except the biggest prize he wants. He'll never be satisfied. And I think he enjoyed the flurry of action a presidential run offers. Aides at his beckon, business men wanting to meet with him, speeches, dinners with politicians, etc.

I really liked the Netflix documentary. If he could loosen up maybe he'd have a shot at the nomination. Jeb seems rather Obama-esque but without the (TelePrompTer) speaking ability. Professorial, introverted, not a back slapper, etc. Perhaps Romney could pose a stark contrast by being the guy he seems to be behind closed doors: dry sense of humor, sarcastic, adventurous, etc.

Jeb wants to run a serious campaign but I just don't believe the base wants that. If the GOP electorate was full of George Will types sure, Bush would win. But they're full of Hannity types, people who fester over perceived slights and boil over resentment of a variety of groups. Jeb can't tap into that. Maybe Romney can.

 

[RobotChant]

Romney's sudden move into 2016 talks a 'conundrum' for some former aides

Now, just as Bush was provoked by talk that Romney was considering a run and made a surprise mid-December announcement about actively exploring a run for president, Romney has been flushed out into the open by Bush’s flurry of activity over the past month.

In particular, Bush’s meetings last week with major GOP donors got the attention of Romney advisers.

“[Romney’s] theory of the race was that he could wait for a while and see if the field cracked up, and if it did and there was fragmentation and chaos there would be an opening for someone like him — a unifying force, tested, vetted. That theory works so long as there’s no strong candidates with equally unifying potential. I think he saw that potential in Jeb. I just don’t think he thought Jeb was going to run,” said one GOP money world insider.

I can see this being very close to the truth. Bush is a major player and that forced Romney to also throw his name out there, before Bush gets too big of a lead.

 

[ivysaur12]

These maps are too close. STAHP

It's literally the opposite because what would need to happen for those maps to come to fruition would be a retread of almost every single voting pattern from the last decade.

Also, ugh, stuck at the bottom of the page, but the ACA is dooooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-supreme-court-bank-robbery-hostages-20150113-story.html

The Supreme Court warned would-be bank robbers Tuesday that taking a hostage will send them to prison for an extra 10 years or more, even if they merely move a few feet across a room.

In a 9-0 decision, the justices upheld a 1934 law passed in response to bank robber John Dillinger that made it a separate crime with a stiff penalty for a fleeing bandit to "force any person to accompany him."

In their appeal to the Supreme Court, lawyers for Whitfield argued the federal hostage-taking law should apply only when the robber forces "a victim to travel with him for a substantial distance" when fleeing the bank.

Disagreeing, Justice Antonin Scalia said the phrase "accompany him" can mean moving only a few feet in one room.

Scalia has been the court's leader in arguing that the laws should be read literally, and not necessarily according to how their congressional sponsors envisioned their meaning.

"The Congress that wrote this provision may well have had most prominently in mind John Dillinger's driving off with hostages, but it enacted a provision that goes well beyond that," he wrote in Whitfield vs. United States. "We hold that a bank robber 'forces a person to accompany him' when he forces that person to go somewhere with him, even if the movement occurs entirely within a single building or over a short distance."

Spoiler

Of course, there isn't any particular ambiguity in what it means to accompany someone, so this isn't a particularly challenging case and calm down, Diablos and NeoXChaos

 

[Aaron Strife]

These maps are too close. STAHP

If Hillary gets to 270 by 1 vote that's good enough for me and it should be for you too.

I thought romney said after last election his whole family wished they hadn't even run. Is he just glutton for punishment? Do we need to see his creepy kids again?

I hope if Romney's the nominee his dumbass son talks about wanting to punch Hillary in the face when she calls him a liar during a debate.

 

[ivysaur12]

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/chris-christie-fdu-poll-publicmind?utm_content=buffer1a26c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Christie's approval in NJ is underwater again.

Thirty-nine percent of registered voters surveyed approve of the job Christie is doing as governor, while 47 percent disapprove, the poll found. Forty-nine percent are concerned with the direction the state is going in, while 36 percent are content.

"This is the first time Governor Christie faces a public with numbers like these in regard to his leadership," Krista Jenkins, an FDU political science professor and director of PublicMind, said in a statement.

 

[Wilsongt]

Eh.

 

[ivysaur12]

Loretta Sanchez (CA-46) will also run for Barbara Boxer's seat.

DISNEYLAND IS IN HER DISTRICT!

 

[Oblivion]

Sweet. Water boy (Marco Rubio) is gonna be on the Daily Show tonight.

 

[adamsappel]

Also, ugh, stuck at the bottom of the page, but the ACA is dooooooooomed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-supreme-court-bank-robbery-hostages-20150113-story.html

It's an appropriate law to apply to the ACA, because my taxes are taken at the point of a gun.