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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Randy Weber ‏@TXRandy14 42m42 minutes ago
Even Adolph Hitler thought it more important than Obama to get to Paris. (For all the wrong reasons.) Obama couldn't do it for right reasons
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70b44b40540a1bdeee9e49f6a3302456_reasonably_small.jpeg


ivysaur12 said:
My old boss knew him really well. Guy's a fucking nightmare with a million skeletons in his closet.
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does the fox news chick count?

ivysaur12 said:
Kamala Harris will run for Boxer's Senate seat. So.

Fuck. I really don't want Newsom to be our governor.
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wouldn't your rather have him in cali where the legislature can still make policy than the senate where he'd be making policy?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Hitler-and-fellow-Nazis-i-012.jpg


WHERE'S OBAMA?!?

Guy to the left of Adolf kinda looks like Boehner. Also all of them look let down like "this is it?" at the end-point of a vacation.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
Also, Newsom is a member of the DLC wing of the party, with a little bit of "Silicon Valley ideas can fix the country," and frankly, electing somebody like that to the Governorship of Cali is like Texas electing Olympia Snowe governor.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/mitt-romney-2016-114199.html
The selling of Mitt 3.0
Romney is promising he’ll be ‘different’ this time.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...68592e-9a88-11e4-96cc-e858eba91ced_story.html
In the conversations, Romney said he is intent on running to the right of Bush, who also is working vigorously to court donors and other party establishment figures for a 2016 bid. Romney has tried to assure conservatives that he shares their views on immigration and tax policy — and that should he enter the race, he will not forsake party orthodoxy.

On New Year’s Eve, Romney welcomed Laura Ingraham, the firebrand conservative and nationally syndicated talk-radio host, to his ski home in Deer Valley, Utah. Romney served a light lunch to Ingraham and her family as they spent more than an hour discussing politics and policy, according to sources familiar with the meeting.

“He was relaxed, reflective and was interested in hearing my thoughts on the American working class,” Ingraham said in an e-mail Monday. “He was fully engaged and up to speed on everything happening on [the] domestic and international front. To me, it didn’t seem like he was content to be just a passive player in American politics.”

Romney’s undertaking to re-engage and pursue anew the GOP’s leading financial and political players began Friday, when he told a private gathering of donors, “I want to be president.” He also told them that his wife, Ann, was “very encouraging” of another campaign.
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WHY IS THIS HAPPENING
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Sounds like Romney is going kamikaze on Bush. Wow.

He sounds desperate. If his plan is to move to the right of Bush, won't that turn off the establishment donors that he needs? Also didn't he lose in 2012 due to lurching to the right just to win the nomination? You can't move to the center after selling yourself to Fox News on immigration, gay marriage, etc.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Sounds like Romney is going kamikaze on Bush. Wow.

He sounds desperate. If his plan is to move to the right of Bush, won't that turn off the establishment donors that he needs? Also didn't he lose in 2012 due to lurching to the right just to win the nomination? You can't move to the center after selling yourself to Fox News on immigration, gay marriage, etc.
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I was going to say that I think the idea is that he'll run juuuuust far enough to the right of Bush to pick up the party faithful, but not so far as to scare away the moderates or the establishment, but then I realized he's probably just delusional.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
By "moving to the right" he means he's not going to tightrope immigration in the primaries which he had to do last time as the "moderate" candidate. Like when he came up with that self-deportation bullshit.

The software upgrades based on 2012's run are going to ensure he stays out of gay marriage/abortion/etc. Social conservatives on those issues aren't going to be a big enough singular bloc to dominate the primaries.

Immigration is going to be the issue, and it crosses party lines in a way that's not favorable to Democrats. I think the Democratic candidates are going to be surprised on that front when they start treking around outside the party elite. Hillary's going to be to "the right" of Obama on it for sure.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
benjipwns said:
By "moving to the right" he means he's not going to tightrope immigration in the primaries which he had to do last time as the "moderate" candidate. Like when he came up with that self-deportation bullshit.

The software upgrades based on 2012's run are going to ensure he stays out of gay marriage/abortion/etc. Social conservatives on those issues aren't going to be a big enough singular bloc to dominate the primaries.

Immigration is going to be the issue, and it crosses party lines in a way that's not favorable to Democrats. I think the Democratic candidates are going to be surprised on that front when they start treking around outside the party elite. Hillary's going to be to "the right" of Obama on it for sure.
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its the opposite of the the gun issue on intensity though. anti-immigrant fever doesn't move votes, pro-immigration reform does change the elctorate.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
I'll be interested to see to what degree the donor class is willing to fight amongst itself. I know that the GOP's donor class is not a monolith, but Jeb and Mitt both strike me as guys who will only jump in if they think they have a very good shot at winning the nomination.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
benjipwns said:
By "moving to the right" he means he's not going to tightrope immigration in the primaries which he had to do last time as the "moderate" candidate. Like when he came up with that self-deportation bullshit.

The software upgrades based on 2012's run are going to ensure he stays out of gay marriage/abortion/etc. Social conservatives on those issues aren't going to be a big enough singular bloc to dominate the primaries.

Immigration is going to be the issue, and it crosses party lines in a way that's not favorable to Democrats. I think the Democratic candidates are going to be surprised on that front when they start treking around outside the party elite. Hillary's going to be to "the right" of Obama on it for sure.
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Really?

The new NBC/WSJ poll also finds a majority of Americans (57 percent) favoring a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and that increases to 74 percent when respondents are told that such a pathway requires paying fines and back taxes, as well as passing a security background check.
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http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/immigration-reform/nbc-wsj-poll-nearly-half-oppose-executive-action-immigration-n251631

Only 26% of Americans think Obama's plan for those immigrants goes too far, while 50% called it about right and 22% said it doesn't go far enough, according to a CNN/ORC poll out Wednesday of 1,045 adults, conducted Nov. 21-23 and with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
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http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/26/politics/cnn-immigration-poll/

(Qualifying this one):

Voters are very supportive of President Obama’s executive order on immigration, according to a new poll from an organization aligned with Democrats.

Sixty-seven percent of voters said that they had a favorable opinion of the plan when it was described to them, and 28 percent had an unfavorable view in the poll conducted by Hart Research Associates for Americans United for Change, a liberal group.

The results of the poll vary by party affiliation.
An overwhelming 91 percent of Democrats favored the plan as it was described to them, as did 67 percent of independent voters.

Fifty-one percent of Republicans did not favor the plan.
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http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/225186-poll-finds-support-for-obamas-executive-action-on-immigration

Support for allowing undocumented immigrants to stay is at its lowest level ever measured by the poll. Offered three choices, 48 percent of voters say they should be allowed to stay with a path to citizenship, down from 57 percent in November 2013. Meanwhile, 35 percent say they should be required to leave the U.S., up from 26 percent a year ago and at the highest level recorded on the question by Quinnipiac. Eleven percent say immigrants should be allowed to stay, but not be allowed to apply for citizenship, similar to past surveys.

“Americans look at immigration reform with ambivalence,” Tim Malloy, assistant director of the poll, said in a statement.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-11-25/americans-in-poll-divided-on-obama-immigration-action
 
E

Ecotic

Member
I made a post in October 2012 something to the effect of:

"I'm so glad that in three weeks I'll never have to hear about Mitt Romney in any consequential way again."

It really felt like an unquestionably accurate thing to say at the time.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Ecotic said:
I made a post in October 2012 something to the effect of:

"I'm so glad that in three weeks I'll never have to hear about Mitt Romney in any consequential way again."

It really felt like an unquestionably accurate thing to say at the time.
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Ahem, you said:

http://neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43723707&postcount=7045

I love the way our country's candidates for President aren't the party leaders like some countries. Winner take all, loser goes home. If all goes to plan, in 9 days I'll never have to hear about Mitt Romney in any consequential way again.
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R

RustyNails

Member
Ecotic said:
I made a post in October 2012 something to the effect of:

"I'm so glad that in three weeks I'll never have to hear about Mitt Romney in any consequential way again."

It really felt like an unquestionably accurate thing to say at the time.
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You know what they say about the Babadook?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
its the opposite of the the gun issue on intensity though. anti-immigrant fever doesn't move votes, pro-immigration reform does change the elctorate.
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No way, anti-immigrant fever when stoked is even more intense than guns because nationalism is involved.

Pro-amnesty, or even worse, pro-immigration doesn't truly move votes. It's not even attractive to most of the hispanic vote considering it's patronizing. And when they have protests and marches calling for it, it riles up the nationalists more than their supporters.

Michael Savage's slogan is a perfect encapsulation of the GOP base's concerns and the Reagan Democrats: Borders, language, culture.

It always has been, which is one reason they voted for Perot. It's why McCain went from championing amnesty to BUILD THE DANG FENCE.

I think the Progressive Bubble is biggest on this issue. More than any other. The "center" on this issue among voters has shifted drastically over the last few years back to where it used to be, while it's stayed mostly the same among the political elites and it's why they've always been caught off guard regarding it.

If you can get the Muslim fear, economy and welfare/tax lies going too, add a potato, baby, you've got a stew goin'.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
benjipwns said:
No way, anti-immigrant fever when stoked is even more intense than guns because nationalism is involved.

Pro-amnesty, or even worse, pro-immigration doesn't truly move votes. It's not even attractive to most of the hispanic vote considering it's patronizing. And when they have protests and marches calling for it, it riles up the nationalists more than their supporters.

Michael Savage's slogan is a perfect encapsulation of the GOP base's concerns and the Reagan Democrats: Borders, language, culture.

It always has been, which is one reason they voted for Perot. It's why McCain went from championing amnesty to BUILD THE DANG FENCE.

I think the Progressive Bubble is biggest on this issue. More than any other. The "center" on this issue among voters has shifted drastically over the last few years back to where it used to be, while it's stayed mostly the same among the political elites and it's why they've always been caught off guard regarding it.

If you can get the Muslim fear, economy and welfare/tax lies going too, add a potato, baby, you've got a stew goin'.
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Meh I disagree. Obama won Hispanics by a ridiculous amount in 2012, he did better with them than he did in 08. Why do you think that is?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
benjipwns said:
I think the Progressive Bubble is biggest on this issue. More than any other. The "center" on this issue among voters has shifted drastically over the last few years back to where it used to be, while it's stayed mostly the same among the political elites and it's why they've always been caught off guard regarding it.
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Come on Benji...you're out of form here, considering your mastergrade trolling in the community college thread.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
It doesn't really matter if you run up the score in New York and California when places like Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa are where you need to scrounge through the couch cushions to find Hispanic voters let alone win them over enough to affect the outcome.

RustyNails said:
Come on Benji...you're out of form here, considering your mastergrade trolling in the community college thread.
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Trolling?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
benjipwns said:
It doesn't really matter if you run up the score in New York and California when places like Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa are where you need to scrounge through the couch cushions to find Hispanic voters let alone win them over enough to affect the outcome.


Trolling?
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I don't think the typical voter in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Iowa is going to vote on immigration reform. They're going to vote on what most independents vote on: the economy.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
ivysaur12 said:
I don't think the typical voter in Ohio, Wisconsin, or Iowa is going to vote on immigration reform. They're going to vote on what most independents vote on: the economy.
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They aren't going to be driven by voting for reform that's pro-immigration, no.

But the nationalism expressed through the immigration issue can reflect fears within the economy. The "culture" can be the economic culture where whites have jobs and they dang darkies are stealin' em. Or at least takin all our welfare and making us press 2 for English.

The Immigration Acts of the early 20th century are pretty informative, it's the exact same debate and concerns word for word except for the targets. And that was during a "roaring" economy and the party elites disinclined towards limiting immigration.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
This 2016 Republican primary is going to be the most exciting and yet nastiest campaign of the modern era upon which this country and Republican party has ever seen.

Jeb
Romney
Christie

Cruz
Paul
Rubio

Huckabee
Santorum

Walker
Pence
Kasich

OMG, faction among faction. Evangelical/social conservatives vs establishment vs tea party vs libertarianism

Hillary and her team are going to HAVE A FIELD DAY. The nominee will most certainly be beaten, battered and bruised. Party unity will be out the door and conventional wisdom of "stronger nominee when the primary is over" will be thrown out the door.

Aaron my optimism is back.
 
E

East Lake

Member
benjipwns said:
They aren't going to be driven by voting for reform that's pro-immigration, no.

But the nationalism expressed through the immigration issue can reflect fears within the economy. The "culture" can be the economic culture where whites have jobs and they dang darkies are stealin' em. Or at least takin all our welfare and making us press 2 for English.

The Immigration Acts of the early 20th century are pretty informative, it's the exact same debate and concerns word for word except for the targets. And that was during a "roaring" economy and the party elites disinclined towards limiting immigration.
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If we ended the state would that fix everything?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
benjipwns said:
They aren't going to be driven by voting for reform that's pro-immigration, no.

But the nationalism expressed through the immigration issue can reflect fears within the economy. The "culture" can be the economic culture where whites have jobs and they dang darkies are stealin' em. Or at least takin all our welfare and making us press 2 for English.

The Immigration Acts of the early 20th century are pretty informative, it's the exact same debate and concerns word for word except for the targets. And that was during a "roaring" economy and the party elites disinclined towards limiting immigration.
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If there were 2012, or 2008, I might have agreed with you. I just don't see that 2016 will be dictated by immigration policies from 2014.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Btw the WH admitted today they should have sent a high official to the French rally, validating my view. Just a stupid unforced error and sign of an absense of leadership as per usual.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
benjipwns said:
If we respected freedom of travel more than arbitrary lines on maps that would be a big help but it wouldn't fix everything.


It's going to dictate the GOP primaries.
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Oh sure, I just don't see it being any central component to an undecided's vote in the general election.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
This 2016 Republican primary is going to be the most exciting and yet nastiest campaign of the modern era upon which this country and Republican party has ever seen.

Jeb
Romney
Christie

Cruz
Paul
Rubio

Huckabee
Santorum

Walker
Pence
Kasich

OMG, faction among faction. Evangelical/social conservatives vs establishment vs tea party vs libertarianism

Hillary and her team are going to HAVE A FIELD DAY. The nominee will most certainly be beaten, battered and bruised. Party unity will be out the door and conventional wisdom of "stronger nominee when the primary is over" will be thrown out the door.

Aaron my optimism is back.
Click to expand...
Btw they seem to think this will be their 2008 in terms of exciting the base but nah. Jeb Bush doesn't have a multi state grass roots infrastructure full of passionate supporters. Neither does Christie or Romney. They just have a lot of money. Obama and Hillary had very large armies of supporters. Edwards also had passionate supporters in many states.

Meanwhile Rand Paul does have a passionate grassroots base, as does Ted Cruz. Paul should win Iowa and do well in the big, early southern Super Tuesday. I still don't think he'll get the nomination but he'll definitely ensure one or two of the establishment guys drops out early (Christie).
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
benjipwns said:
It doesn't really matter if you run up the score in New York and California when places like Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa are where you need to scrounge through the couch cushions to find Hispanic voters let alone win them over enough to affect the outcome.
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Different campaigns and strategies for different states. Obama's appeal to Hispanic voters may not have won him Ohio, Wisconsin or Iowa, but it helped him in Colorado. It won him Florida. Democrats running up the score in New York and California is a side effect of Obama promoting policies that appeal to base voters in swing states. That would be like getting mad at Romney for doing the same in Texas - it's not like it came at the expense of Ohio, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina.

Also

AG Kamala Harris plans to announce run for Boxer seat on Tuesday -- first candidate to officially declare Senate run, per Harris adviser.
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20048442yu.gif


Harris/Booker 2024
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Not like a Republican (outside of Walker, and even then I'm dubious) can win Wisconsin, but…

tWZ4vjI.png


EDIT: I fucked up and put MN red. Switched MN and VA if you want and the result is the same.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Yeah in any case you have to contort the map pretty fiercely to give the GOP a win. And even then it's always bare.

But the next election could be a 269-269 tie with the HOR appointing the Republican and the media would still call it a mandate. Fuck them.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Yeah in any case you have to contort the map pretty fiercely to give the GOP a win. And even then it's always bare.

But the next election could be a 269-269 tie with the HOR appointing the Republican and the media would still call it a mandate. Fuck them.
Click to expand...

Of course they would. Republicans have a mandate. Democrats have a squeaker.
 
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