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PoliGAF 2014 |OT2| We need to be more like Disney World

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Michelle Nunn admits she voted for the president

its-fucking-nothing-spongebob-gif.gif
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
Notrollious said:
When did 'czar' start to become common place in american politics?

I mean I'm all for calling people the russian version of "Caesar". Hell why not bring back Kaiser. We should have an Ebola Kaiser instead of a Czar. Less commie like.
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Rhomega Beta said:
As I recall, when Obama took office.
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Under Reagan, actually. And went up in numbers under Bush II. But as noted, Fox started making an issue of out them when Obama took office.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Funny enough, Sam Wang now is more bearish on Democrats than Nate Silver is now, giving them just a 30% chance at holding the senate, compared to Silver's 38%. I'll continue to like Sam Wang for his poll only analysis, but I'll have to keep a note of how hard his model can swing, at least in elections like this with a billion toss ups to keep in mind. From what I've seen so far, Nate Silver seemed to have the best model overall this year for long term predictions.

Atilac said:
Any hope of the dems holding the senate?
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There's plenty of good reasons to keep hope, like by looking at the last two elections of polling bias, or the likelihood of republicans doing something really stupid, or simply banking on only needing a couple of a large number of states with potential of moving the other way, basically hoping that 38% luck goes their way. It's certainly far from over.

But I've moved to the point of having no hope myself. Even with NC and KS, we need 2 of states like Iowa, Colorado, and Arkansas to go D, but good polls for the democrats have been rare for all of those races recently. Even Colorado is starting to move so far away from the center that the polling bias is becoming more and more unlikely to save it.

Part of that might just be my psyche of not being able to handle crushed hope after crushed hope, and would just prefer to be wrong and happily surprised than to keep on that treadmill of hope and despair. I could just go play Danganronpa instead if that's what I was looking for.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
WayneMorse said:
Yea and he has no experience with public health, he's a fucking attorney.
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He has all the credentials you could want:
JOSH EARNEST: His area of expertise is implementation, and that is exactly what is needed. Somebody who can coordinate this broad inter-agency response. We need to make sure that this tenacious response is up to the standards of the American people and up to the high standards the president has set.

We are confident that somebody with Mr. Klain's management credentials both inside and outside of government is competent, he has a strong track record of implementing complex government policies as evidenced by his success at implementing the recovery act. And we are confident he has all the credentials that we could want for somebody who can implement these policies which are critical to the safety and health of the American people.
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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
WayneMorse said:
If the Dems lost the Senate but kept Iowa and Colorado I wouldn't mind.
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Add NC to that and I more or less agree. We were bound to lose AK/AR/LA eventually and if Begich/Pryor/Landrieu can't win them this year no one could have.

Also it means I'd win my bet against PD. But I still think Dems will at least have 50 on election night and that Orman will win.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
What's going to make me laugh is if the polls and general narrative points to the GOP taking the Senate as a sure thing, followed by the Dems barely keeping it.

I can already hear the crying, the conspiracy theories, the accusations of fraud.. and (my favorite) the implication that maaaaybe polls were incorrectly skewed in favor of the GOP's candidates.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Add NC to that and I more or less agree. We were bound to lose AK/AR/LA eventually and if Begich/Pryor/Landrieu can't win them this year no one could have.

Also it means I'd win my bet against PD. But I still think Dems will at least have 50 on election night and that Orman will win.
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Your right. Senator Breaux couldn't save Vitter's opponent in 2004. Landrieu squeaked by 5788 votes against Woody Jenkins in 1996 as Clinton carried the state by 8. I wonder how Tim Hutchinson beat AR Attorney General Bryant in 1996 as Clinton carried AR by 17. I sometimes wonder if the only reason AR, LA, WV, TN, KY went D in 1992 & 1996 was because of Clinton and a generic D would have lost them. Gore didn't even win his home state of TN in 2000.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Your right. Senator Breaux couldn't save Vitter's opponent in 2004. Landrieu squeaked by 5788 votes against Woody Jenkins in 1996 as Clinton carried the state by 8. I wonder how Tim Hutchinson beat AR Attorney General Bryant in 1996 as Clinton carried AR by 17. I sometimes wonder if the only reason AR, LA, WV, TN, KY went D in 1992 & 1996 was because of Clinton and a generic D would have lost them. Gore didn't even win his home state of TN in 2000.
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Funny for how long ago the Southern strategy was implemented they didn't truly romp Southern Senate races until well into the 2000s. Hell West Virginia is only now about to elect its first Republican senator in over 80 years. I suppose Clinton threw a wrench into that.

Just in time for Southern states with large minority populations like VA, NC, GA and FL to start voting Democratic while the GOP's strength has completely eroded in the Midwest and coastal states
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
The "Southern Strategy" was only applicable at the Presidential level because Nixon didn't give a shit about anything that didn't apply to him. Nixon only cared about the GOP to the extent that it could serve as a vehicle for himself to gain power. (Something H.W. Bush lamented years later.)

The majority of state legislatures in the South were heavily Democratic well into the 2000s too.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
Funny for how long ago the Southern strategy was implemented they didn't truly romp Southern Senate races until well into the 2000s. Hell West Virginia is only now about to elect its first Republican senator in over 80 years. I suppose Clinton threw a wrench into that.

Just in time for Southern states with large minority populations like VA, NC, GA and FL to start voting Democratic while the GOP's strength has completely eroded in the Midwest and coastal states
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Yeah. KS hasnt had a D state house since 1912.The GOP has had a monopoly on Kansas since its inception practically. Thats why im highly skeptical Orman pulls it out. 1932 was the last time KS elected a non-republican. Dont know if an Obama coalition exist there considering literally generations of R rule. I dont know what can break that tight stronghold. Looking back at senate races, 1994 saw the end of D's chances in TN as Frist and Thompson took both senate seats. 1961 with the election of John Tower, Hutchinson in 1993 saw the end of D's chances in TX. 1994 and 1997 saw the end of AL seats as Shelby saw the writing on the wall and switched parties midterm as Senator Heflin retired. Kentucky has been a lost cause since McConnell squeaked in 1984 and Wendell Ford retired in 1996. SC follows the same retirement scenarios as above as well as MS with a Cohran win in 1981 and Lott in 1989.

It seems that long time incumbents were responsible for the holds the D's had going for them until things start falling apart in the 1980s & 1990s. WV, AR and LA are finally catching up it seems. Capito will be the first republican since 1942 to be elected to a six year term. I have no doubt had Manchin not run, a R would be holding his seat. Daines will be the first MT Republican since 1907(Class 2 seat) to represent the seat. If landrieu loses, her seat will go R for the first time since Reconstruction.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Yeah. KS hasnt had a D state house since 1912.The GOP has had a monopoly on Kansas since its inception practically. Thats why im highly skeptical Orman pulls it out. 1932 was the last time KS elected a non-republican. Dont know if an Obama coalition exist there considering literally generations of R rule. I dont know what can break that tight stronghold. Looking back at senate races, 1994 saw the end of D's chances in TN as Frist and Thompson took both senate seats. 1961 with the election of John Tower, Hutchinson in 1993 saw the end of D's chances in TX. 1994 and 1997 saw the end of AL seats as Shelby saw the writing on the wall and switched parties midterm as Senator Heflin retired. Kentucky has been a lost cause since McConnell squeaked in 1984 and Wendell Ford retired in 1996. SC follows the same retirement scenarios as above as well as MS with a Cohran win in 1981 and Lott in 1989.

It seems that long time incumbents were responsible for the holds the D's had going for them until things start falling apart in the 1980s & 1990s. WV, AR and LA are finally catching up it seems. Capito will be the first republican since 1942 to be elected to a six year term. I have no doubt had Manchin not run, a R would be holding his seat. Daines will be the first MT Republican since 1907(Class 2 seat) to represent the seat. If landrieu loses, her seat will go R for the first time since Reconstruction.
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I think Orman will win on the virtue that he's not a Democrat. Yeah, I know, there's no way in hell he caucuses with the Republicans who have been complete dicks to him, but he's still leading outside of a handful of outliers.

Obviously there's not a winning coalition of Obama voters, but I imagine his path to victory (along with Paul Davis') runs along the same line as how Sebelius won in 2002.

theprodigy said:
Colorado 2014 is basically Nevada 2010 at this point...
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Or, you know, Colorado 2010.

The disparity wasn't as wide as it was in Nevada but polls still underestimated Bennet by nearly five points, enough to flip it from a 3pt Buck win to a 1.7pt Bennet win.

I hope every Senate election this year is Nevada 2010. Both Democrats and Republicans are expecting the electorate this year to resemble 2012 and pollsters are still arbitrarily tossing out minorities, single women, younger people etc. as unlikely voters. SUSA drops people who actually voted in 2010 from some of their polls. Fox News polls only include people who voted in the last four elections. While Democrats are reusing their 2012 playbook to get out the vote, a lot of these pollsters might end up missing the mark.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
benjipwns said:
The "Southern Strategy" was only applicable at the Presidential level because Nixon didn't give a shit about anything that didn't apply to him. Nixon only cared about the GOP to the extent that it could serve as a vehicle for himself to gain power. (Something H.W. Bush lamented years later.)

The majority of state legislatures in the South were heavily Democratic well into the 2000s too.
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This doesn't mean they were what we term 'republican' on policy. Especially since the clinton years.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I think dems will hold the senate, based on braley pulling a win out of his ass. I want to bet that Udall is solid at this point. Hagan is steady, and looks like Nunn is heading that way too. Orman will most probably win because Kansians fucking hate Roberts. Begich go bye bye though.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Aaron Strife said:
I think Orman will win on the virtue that he's not a Democrat. Yeah, I know, there's no way in hell he caucuses with the Republicans who have been complete dicks to him, but he's still leading outside of a handful of outliers.

Obviously there's not a winning coalition of Obama voters, but I imagine his path to victory (along with Paul Davis') runs along the same line as how Sebelius won in 2002.


Or, you know, Colorado 2010.

The disparity wasn't as wide as it was in Nevada but polls still underestimated Bennet by nearly five points, enough to flip it from a 3pt Buck win to a 1.7pt Bennet win.

I hope every Senate election this year is Nevada 2010. Both Democrats and Republicans are expecting the electorate this year to resemble 2012 and pollsters are still arbitrarily tossing out minorities, single women, younger people etc. as unlikely voters. SUSA drops people who actually voted in 2010 from some of their polls. Fox News polls only include people who voted in the last four elections. While Democrats are reusing their 2012 playbook to get out the vote, a lot of these pollsters might end up missing the mark.
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My head is saying Ernst and Gardner will win but my heart is saying Braley and Udall will pull it out. I just want the pollsters to fall flat on their face in shock and the Republicans to implode. Like Chuck Todd said, if the Rs cant win Colorado now "in this environment", 2016 is over for them in Colorado. Yeah I know they have the Colorado AG, TR & ST offices btw.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
benjipwns said:
Except for the Governorship.
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It makes me wonder why that's the case. Any ideas why D's can win the Governorship in Kentucky but fall flat in federal races?<----I have noticed that on BOTH sides in certain states such as MA and NY. 16 year R Governor rule well into 2007
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Governors tend to be elected in off years and local and ever changing issues predominate. National elections are just the same rehashes over and over.

I think it also costs less to become a Governor than a Senator.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
APKmetsfan said:
OK and R and Ds at the end of names don't say everything about the policy and politics unless we're having a kind of beauty contest. Especially in state politics
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This is relevant to the conversation that was about the Democrats' seemingly out of the ordinary success in beauty contests how?
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
WASHINGTON — Scott Brown told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade Friday that Ebola wouldn’t be a problem for America if Mitt Romney had won in 2012.

“Gosh can you imagine if Mitt was the president right now?” Brown said. “He was right on Russia, he was right on Obamacare, he was right on the economy. And I guarantee you we would not be worrying about Ebola right now and, you know, worrying about our foreign policy screw ups.”
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10-17-2014-4.png

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O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Has anyone posted Judge Posner's brutal take down of voter ID laws? It's well worth a read:

-"Some of the 'evidence' of voter-impersonation fraud is downright goofy, if not paranoid, such as the nonexistent buses that according to the 'True the Vote' movement transport foreigners and reservation Indians to polling places."

-"Even Fox News, whose passion for conservative causes has never been questioned, acknowledges that 'Voter ID Laws Target Rarely Occurring Voter Fraud.'"

-"As there is no evidence that voter-impersonation fraud is a problem, how can the fact that a legislature says it's a problem turn it into one? If the Wisconsin legislature says witches are a problem, shall Wisconsin courts be permitted to conduct witch trials?"

-"There is no evidence that Wisconsin's voter rolls are inflated - as were Indiana's - and there is compelling evidence that voter-impersonation fraud is essentially nonexistent in Wisconsin."

-"The panel opinion states that requiring a photo ID might at least prevent persons who 'are too young or are not citizens' from voting. Not so. State-issued IDs are available to noncitizens ... - all that's required is proof of 'legal presence in the United States[.]'

-"This implies that the net effect of such requirements is to impede voting by people easily discouraged from voting, most of whom probably lean Democratic."

-"The panel opinion does not discuss the cost of obtaining a photo ID. It assumes the cost is negligible. That's an easy assumption for federal judges to make, since we are given photo IDs by court security free of charge. And we have upper-middle-class salaries. Not everyone is so fortunate."

-"There is only one motivation for imposing burdens on voting that are ostensibly designed to discourage voter-impersonation fraud, if there is no actual danger of such fraud, and that is to discourage voting by persons likely to vote against the party responsible for imposing the burdens."

-"The authors' overall assessment is that 'voter ID laws don't disenfranchise minorities or reduce minority voting, and in many instances enhance it' [emphasis added]. In other words, the authors believe that the net effect of these laws is to increase minority voting. Yet if that is true, the opposition to these laws by liberal groups is senseless. If photo ID laws increase minority voting, liberals should rejoice in the laws and conservatives deplore them. Yet it is conservatives who support them and liberals who oppose them. Unless conservatives and liberals are masochists, promoting laws that hurt them, these laws must suppress minority voting and the question then becomes whether there are offsetting social benefits-the evidence is that there are not."
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/richard-posner-dissent-voter-id

The dude's an appointee of Ronaldus Magnus himself, which makes his take down even better.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
My head is saying Ernst and Gardner will win but my heart is saying Braley and Udall will pull it out. I just want the pollsters to fall flat on their face in shock and the Republicans to implode. Like Chuck Todd said, if the Rs cant win Colorado now "in this environment", 2016 is over for them in Colorado. Yeah I know they have the Colorado AG, TR & ST offices btw.
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Head and heart are saying Braley and Udall will probably win, but leaving enough room to not be too surprised if Ernst and Gardner win.

I think too often people will look at a candidate's chances and assume it's a lock for one candidate - see PD boldly predicting Scott Brown would win in 2012 based on like one poll.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Oblivion said:
Has anyone posted Judge Posner's brutal take down of voter ID laws? It's well worth a read:



http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/richard-posner-dissent-voter-id

The dude's an appointee of Ronaldus Magnus himself, which makes his take down even better.
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Dude is even worse than that: http://www.robertboynton.com/articleDisplay.php?article_id=75
He also, occasionally, produces outrageous conclusions, such as his contention in a 1999 article in the literary journal Raritan that the rule of law is an accidental and readily dispensable element of our legal ideology, and his argument in favor of buying and selling babies on the free market in lieu of government-regulated adoption. Add his advocacy of legal marijuana and LSD, and it is clear that Posner &#8211; despite his obvious brilliance &#8211; will never sit on the U.S. Supreme Court.
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Posner's point is simple. Public intellectuals aren't accountable to the market: They don't pay a price for their mistakes (which they seldom acknowledge in the first place); there are no gatekeepers to maintain "the quality controls that one finds in other markets for goods and services" (as in an academic setting); they speak outside their areas of expertise (using their credentials to misrepresent themselves); and they take their public pronouncements less seriously than their academic ones.
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"Most people, including most academics, are confusing mixtures. They are moral and immoral, kind and cruel, smart and stupid. . . . [A] successful academic may be able to use his success to reach the general public on matters about which he is an idiot. It doesn't help that successful people tend to exaggerate their versatility; abnormal self- confidence is a frequent cause and almost invariable effect of great success."

To paraphrase that great public intellectual Pogo, Posner has seen the enemy. And the enemy is him.
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benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Was getting mailers from the Democrats, but now it's moved into various "non-partisan" groups that announce that MY VOTING RATE IS BELOW AVERAGE in big letters. None so far about my neighbors.

Grab bag of links off Google about the neighbor thing:
http://www.nwahomepage.com/story/d/...r-voting-records/23002/_Z8X46LvFEeAZAHM9SxwXQ

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/26/AR2008102601937.html
http://hamptonroads.com/2009/10/your-voting-history-could-end-neighbors-mailbox
http://althouse.blogspot.com/2012/06/were-sending-this-mailing-to-you-and.html
http://www.jsonline.com/news/statep...set-off-some-neighbors-me5lip3-157049485.html
http://www.kpho.com/story/19981906/mailer-lists-neighbors-names-addresses-voting-history
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
So I always a bitch and moan about students when I taught and how terrible they were and didn't pay attention to simple things. Well, today that particular nugget became even more apparent.

Now, I've had some good students, and I've had some students who didn't need to be in college, and who didn't need to go anywhere near medical school or pharmacy school.

Well, I take two medicines: One where I have to get 45 pills ( I take 1 1/2 a day) and another where I get 30 pills (I take one a day). Well, the person who was filling my meds a few weeks ago was a former student of mine. It turns out, he switched the numbers for the pills. He gave me 45 of the one a day, and 30 of the 1 1/2 half a day. Now, these medicines are pretty tame and nothing major. But, imagine had it been a super important, very dose dependent medication that was screwed up.

Moral or story: Kids today are kinda lame and don't pay attention.
 
C

Cat

Member
I'm catching up on Twitter this morning and am disappointed to learn that SCOTUS ruled to let the Texas voter ID to stay in place. Sotomayor, Kagan and Ginsburg dissented. I'm so disappointed.
 
D

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
Wilsongt said:
So I always a bitch and moan about students when I taught and how terrible they were and didn't pay attention to simple things. Well, today that particular nugget became even more apparent.

Now, I've had some good students, and I've had some students who didn't need to be in college, and who didn't need to go anywhere near medical school or pharmacy school.

Well, I take two medicines: One where I have to get 45 pills ( I take 1 1/2 a day) and another where I get 30 pills (I take one a day). Well, the person who was filling my meds a few weeks ago was a former student of mine. It turns out, he switched the numbers for the pills. He gave me 45 of the one a day, and 30 of the 1 1/2 half a day. Now, these medicines are pretty tame and nothing major. But, imagine had it been a super important, very dose dependent medication that was screwed up.

Moral or story: Kids today are kinda lame and don't pay attention.
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did he have any facial piercings or neck tattoos? I bet he did. Kids these days.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Cat said:
I'm catching up on Twitter this morning and am disappointed to learn that SCOTUS ruled to let the Texas voter ID to stay in place. Sotomayor, Kagan and Ginsburg dissented. I'm so disappointed.
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Im hoping we get a 5-4 liberal court that declares them poll taxes. Because thats what they are
 
C

Cat

Member
APKmetsfan said:
Im hoping we get a 5-4 liberal court that declares them poll taxes. Because thats what they are
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Yeah, it's not the end, overall, but the direct impact on the current election is what's bringing me down. I hope the same about the poll tax as was already ruled by a federal judge and, based on the tweets I read this morning, stated by Ginsburg too.
 
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