So, to be clear, your objection is not that one voter has massively disproportion power to another, its adherence to established doctrine?
That's the argument, yes. Nobody's saying the Constitution requires that Senators be elected by relatively equal numbers of voters;
that would be an absurd argument, since the Constitution explicitly provides otherwise. But, in the context of elected bodies the membership of which must be apportioned based on population, the argument is that "population" should be "voter population," not "total population." Otherwise, you end up with situations like that in Texas, where a vote in one district is 1.5x as potent as a vote in another district. As I said, the argument is based on a common-sense conception of fairness, which is why I'm so surprised at the vehement opposition to its mere
reasonableness. (And, again, I'm not saying that I agree with the challengers that using the voter population is mandated by the Constitution; I recognize it as a valid argument, but I have yet to review the actual arguments set against it. Instead, I see things like ivysaur12 and impostor-APKmetsfan simply dismissing it out of hand. So, rather than discussing legitimate arguments against the challenge, we're left wasting time bickering over whether legitimate arguments need even be made.)
Notice how the article did not say "sampling is more accurate." It says "it can be," which is not the same thing at all. To change the method, it better be almost assuredly more accurate.
Further, it has been argued it is unconstitutional (in fact, the SCOTUS said as much for national purposes). So there's that problem too.
Notice how my quote did not say "sampling is more accurate," but that "it can be." As for your proposed standard of proof--"almost assuredly more accurate"--I think it's simply wrong. It makes more sense to use a method that is merely "probably" more accurate than another. Your arbitrary standard seems designed specifically to avoid answering the questions raised by the present case. Additionally, we
know--with certainty--that the current metric is overinclusive and distorts voting power among districts; and we know that the Census Bureau's CVAP data are almost assuredly more accurate, even though, according to the 538 article, it is also overinclusive in that it counts felons ineligible to vote. It goes without saying that the population of voting-age citizens is a far more accurate estimate of the population of eligible voters than is the total population. If you're going to continue denying this, I hope you'll never dignify opinion polls again by discussing them as though they have some value.
Regarding that second paragraph, in fact the 9th Circuit has held that using CVAP
would be unconstitutional, and the 5th Circuit has held that it's up to the state to decide whether to use total population or not. I'm not sure what Supreme Court case you're referring to, however.
Hell, let's do one of your absurd arguments. A district has a giant prison that houses 99.999% of the population. the CVAP would be 100%. But only 1 man can vote (the guards all commute except 1, FWIW). Boom, this method failed. What now?
The problem is every known method has flaws. All have situations that will result in failure. Either we find a method we know is more accurate or we just stick to the one we got.
Any overinclusive method would be subject to the same argument, of course. But that doesn't mean that a method that is
less overinclusive than another is not superior to the other. The more overinclusive a method is, the more likely that it would distort voting power substantially. And note that the plaintiffs don't claim total population can never be used; they just claim that,
when total population is used in a way that creates these significant distortions in voting populations, that violates the one-person, one-vote rule.
And that doesn't even bring up the issue of whether children and illegals and prisoners shouldn't count towards representation. Yes, they may not be legally allowed to vote, but that doesn't mean they deserve a lack of representation. Are representatives supposed to ignore people who can't vote? We allow children to write their representatives, no? Ex-cons? Prisoners? A lack of voting rights does not mean a lack of representation. Regardless, this is a different argument I don't want to have, just wanted to put it out there.
This is what most gives me pause with the plaintiffs' arguments. It isn't obvious, at least, that representation
shouldn't be divvied up based on total population as opposed to the potential voting population, or that the Constitution flatly prohibits such division. Maybe it really
should be a question left to the political process, like most other aspects of electoral policy. We'll just have to wait and see what comes of this case.
This entire case is a power grab by rural counties because they hate the fact that their influence has an expiration date and they're change to move it back more.
Everything's a conspiracy theory with you. No counties are involved in
Evenwel.
EDIT:
For those interested, here are the
Jurisdictional Statement of the plaintiffs, Texas'
Motion to Dismiss or Affirm, and plaintiffs'
Opposition to Texas' motion. (You'll note that the procedural posture of this case is unusual. This didn't go the usual district court-court of appeals-certiorari route. Instead, it was originally heard by a three-judge district court appointed by the Chief Judge of the 5th Circuit, and then directly appealed to SCOTUS.)
Also, the Opposition to Motion to Dismiss or Affirm called the Court's attention to a similar case recently filed in Florida by the ACLU.
Here's what the ACLU has to say about its own lawsuit:
ACLU Files Lawsuit Challenging Prison Gerrymandering Election Districts in Florida County
Today, the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Florida filed a federal lawsuit challenging an election system in Jefferson County, Florida which counts the inmate population of a state prison in the drawing of district maps. The lawsuit, filed today in the U.S. District Court in Tallahassee, states that by treating the approximately 1,157 inmates at the Jefferson Correctional Institution (JCI) as residents for redistricting purposes, Jefferson County is engaging in prison-based gerrymandering, violating constitutional voting rights protections by watering down the voting strength of residents in all the other voting districts.
Under the current maps for County Commission and School Board elections, enacted in 2013, the incarcerated population at JCI makes up 43.2% of the voting age population of Jefferson Countys District 3. Because Florida law removes a persons right to vote upon receiving a felony conviction, the remaining population in District 3 has an inflated political influence on county elections relative to the other four county districts.
No doubt the ACLU is blissfully unaware of its role as just another pawn in the conservative takeover of America.