-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
- Status
Aaron Strife
Banned
Uh-oh, Hillary is under 50 against Jeb. Guess that means she's going to lose because reasons.
Starting to think Bush will be the GOP nominee although I really haven't given it much thought. I think Clinton's winning margin will land somewhere between Obama's 08 and 12 margins. Like 5-6 points. Or it could be bigger! Or it could be smaller. The Republican could win, even!
Starting to think Bush will be the GOP nominee although I really haven't given it much thought. I think Clinton's winning margin will land somewhere between Obama's 08 and 12 margins. Like 5-6 points. Or it could be bigger! Or it could be smaller. The Republican could win, even!
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Replace the question with "Should congress pass the fix to allow financial assistance to buy health insurance?" and you'll probably see the same numbers, which could easily affect Republican's real world numbers if they keep doing nothing about a looming insurance death spiral that would be fixed with one paragraph.
So if the supreme court is partisan but is smart about it, they'd probably rather avoid all that negativity towards republicans and rule in favor of the government. There's plenty of reasons to be positive or negative about the outcome. I really can't pick a side for this one.
All he has to do is get all the undecideds to break his way, and he'll be president.
Also, Bernie has 50% of democrats putting him as a first or second choice. So even with undecideds and others in the race, he's a lock if Hillary ever decides to go home and stop running for president.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
A PR firm would do this at 6 PM on Friday, not 10:00 AM.
Also, that poll above shows a huge campaign point for democrats.
Larry Hogan Governor of MD has Advanced Stage Cancer.
WTF.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/23/us/gov-larry-hogan-of-maryland-says-he-has-cancer.html
WTF.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/23/us/gov-larry-hogan-of-maryland-says-he-has-cancer.html
Thankfully, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma is very treatable, as far as cancers go.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Heidi Heitkamp
This is what you're hoping.
I think the subsidies are in real trouble now. Why on earth would they pick Friday? That just seems insane. For any reason. Kill the subsidies on Friday, legalize gay marriage on Monday.
RIP Obamacare
Remember that "one day please conservatives, next day please liberals" pattern that the Roberts court seems to like for the ends of its terms?
My parents might be losing their plans soon.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Again, a Friday news dump happens at 6 or 7 PM, not 10 AM.
I didn't even think of this because I'm not aware of this pattern.
When has this happened?
Like this really matters? Are you in denial? It's how the court operates. Day > hour.
It is their closest thing to a 'news dump'.
Avon Barksdale
Member
Remember when Diablos was scared of Chris Christie?
Christie never got close enough to this level of legit fucking over health insurance nationwide, sorry.
She is? That's pretty funny.
makingmusic476
Member
You guys are scaring me about the ACA.
God, we'll be so fucked if it's knocked down.
God, we'll be so fucked if it's knocked down.
It's probably over.
Honestly our best chance was a ruling last week. It didn't happen. The longer it takes the less likely it is that the subsidies survive.
A Friday decision is basically trolling at this point.
Which is why I don't think it's Friday. If we were going to get a bad ruling it would be the very last day so the court could leave town right after.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Black Mamba
Member
Honestly, I always thought King and Obergefell would come out the same time, no matter the former's ruling.
Assuming gay marriage is legalized, because I don't really see how that doesn't happen, it makes sense for Roberts to hide upholding the gov't in King with that case. That case will get 10% the coverage as legalized gay marriage. Social Conservatives are going to give a shit about that and subsidies on the back burner.
Why give King an entire week of media play?
And for the record, I believe they would do this even if they ruled against the government. Roberts/SCOTUS does not want this to be a big news deal regardless of their choice, so hide it around gay marriage.
Don't overanalyze this stuff. It was always going to be released close to Obergefell and that's exactly what's happening.
Black Mamba
Member
just want to chime in on something.
I know it would be hilarious to see the GOP candidates squirm around with the question of the confederate flag and stuff, but I'm glad (and amazed) and how swiftly the movement has been so far to remove it. We'll see if it gets done, but if it does, good fucking riddance. I'd much rather this shit go away that be a thing to lol about. That flag is a disgrace and has always been such and the sooner it's gone the better.
I know it would be hilarious to see the GOP candidates squirm around with the question of the confederate flag and stuff, but I'm glad (and amazed) and how swiftly the movement has been so far to remove it. We'll see if it gets done, but if it does, good fucking riddance. I'd much rather this shit go away that be a thing to lol about. That flag is a disgrace and has always been such and the sooner it's gone the better.
Herpes Reasons
Banned
lol
cartoon_soldier
Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...pproval-rating-30-percent-119316.html?hp=l2_4
Darling to Nobody. Haha.
Darling to Nobody. Haha.
Macho Madness
Member
In my head, I heard a balloon deflating noise when I saw that picture.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Do you remember the previous Obamacare case? It was released on the last day of the term.
It's a weak pattern (and sometimes it's not the next day), but in 2013 we saw the Voting Rights Act ruling, followed by the gay marriage ruling. In 2010 we saw a gun rights case decided by a conservative wing, followed by a first amendment case decided by the liberal wing.
(I had to do a quick lookup, and was reminded of how much more of a swing voter Souter was back in the day. Sotomayor was quite a hop to the left.)
I think it's funny as hell. Definitely one of my favorite times of the year.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think this will happen even if the subsidies are knocked down and gay marriage is legalized. The Obamacare case is too nuanced to claim it as a major victory - Obama will probably get Congress to pass some sort of fix even if it's shitty and compromises something else out of it. It wouldn't mean the end of the law as a whole.
Gay marriage though? Whoa Nelly. If it gets legalized by SCOTUS there's nothing conservatives can do about that except throw the most epic tantrum of their lives. This has been the defining social issue in American politics for over a decade.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
We saw Metanalysis's smart point about an early decision being good for the government, and then probably made the illogical jump to it meaning absolutely terrible news if it doesn't show up early.
Sometimes good news not happening isn't a bad thing, just a neutral thing.
And I'm a little sorry I ever brought up the Friday trash day thing. I stand behind that reasoning if that rumor about the timing ends up being true, but we don't even know if that rumor is accurate.
You ain't kiddin'. If we do indeed get a ruling for marriage (yup.. I'm still couching this in conditionals. Superstitious me.), there's a solid portion of the populace who currently is convinced that such a thing was impossible. Fireworks. Tears. Cats & dogs.
I'm wondering how long it'd take to go into effect here in Louisiana. Obergefell day might be a day for just watching reactions..
AnotherNils
Member
I realize law doesn't work this way, but I just can't see all of the big cases going the same way. Gay marriage is a lock, Imo, but everything's by else is a toss-up to me.
If you think they'll split the baby, then I think lethal injection is the next likely liberal ruling. After the VRA, Arizona's redistribution my coulf go either way, and of course ACA scares me to death because it gives them a chance (and political cover) to reverse themselves. I take solace only in how absurd the argument is on its face. Which s immediately countered by how ridiculous it was the guy had standing.
Anyway, my non-prediction prediction is no sweeps, gay marriage for all, and my god have mercy on my soul.
If you think they'll split the baby, then I think lethal injection is the next likely liberal ruling. After the VRA, Arizona's redistribution my coulf go either way, and of course ACA scares me to death because it gives them a chance (and political cover) to reverse themselves. I take solace only in how absurd the argument is on its face. Which s immediately countered by how ridiculous it was the guy had standing.
Anyway, my non-prediction prediction is no sweeps, gay marriage for all, and my god have mercy on my soul.
I saw that. The look on Mika's face while he was going through this scenario was priceless. You could see her biting her tongue.Morning Joe:
Joe Scarborugh: "Jeb is going to win FL, OH(with Kasich) and I'm sorry but Jebs going to win VA. With the Hispanic states out west if he wins(the election) NM, CO and NV will go for him."
He is delusional.
no one except Mika challenged him. Mike Barnacle who I thought was neutral was nodding his head in agreement while Geist quipped his usual "above the fray" scripted answers.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If our Supreme Court is working under the idea of, "Well, the last case went left, so this one should go right," we are absolutely screwed as a country.
AnotherNils
Member
Well, some people do think Roberts decision in the first ACA case was motivated by giving by the court political legitimacy after being perceived as having turned into a conservative institutions after citizens United.
I'm not arguing they barter the actual cases, but I am arguing they consider the shitstorm that will ensue when they release the decisions.
There's empirical proof that, no matter the decision, they're more likely to release their bigger opinions at the very end of the term.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Feels weird to be rooting against Obama. Damn.
AnotherNils
Member
I'm not goi g to pretend I'm being completely rational here. There's a definitely an element of statistical superstition in my belief that the court is unlikely to go 4-0, liberal, on the four big remaining cases.
But I also don't think you guys would any less stunned than me if that did happen.
AnotherNils
Member
Feels weird that he'd team up with the republicans. Like twilight zone weird.
Eh, it's not that surprising. Both sides are capable of irrational opposition to practical legislation. Trade deals have been a bugaboo for Democrats since NAFTA, many have hinged their political careers on opposition to them, so it makes sense that the ever pragmatic Obama would turn to the GOP to get this passed. Politically, it was the only way, at least until Reid steps down.
The first signs of repeating 2012's "Anyone but Romney" where front runner status lurches between various prominent idiots before boiling down to the inevitable.
With 7 cases left to decide (Tex. DHCA, AZ. Leg, Burwell, Utility Air, Johnson, Obergefell, Glossip), here are the amount of opinions written by each justice this term:
Roberts: 6
Scalia: 7
Kennedy: 4
Ginsburg: 6
Breyer: 8
Alito: 7
Sotomayor: 7
Kagan: 7
Tex. DHCA is a January case. AZ. Leg and Burwell are February. Utility Air is March. Johnson, Obergefell, and Glossip are April.
Kennedy has not written any opinions (yet) from January. Roberts, Kennedy, and Ginsburg have not written any February opinions. Scalia has not written any March opinions. Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, Alito, and Sotomayor have not written any April opinions.
My guess is that Kennedy gets at least three opinions. Kennedy will probably write Tex. DHCA, AZ. Leg, and Obergefell. Roberts looks more and more likely to write Burwell (which seemed inevitable, but still).
Roberts: 6
Scalia: 7
Kennedy: 4
Ginsburg: 6
Breyer: 8
Alito: 7
Sotomayor: 7
Kagan: 7
Tex. DHCA is a January case. AZ. Leg and Burwell are February. Utility Air is March. Johnson, Obergefell, and Glossip are April.
Kennedy has not written any opinions (yet) from January. Roberts, Kennedy, and Ginsburg have not written any February opinions. Scalia has not written any March opinions. Scalia, Kennedy, Ginsburg, Alito, and Sotomayor have not written any April opinions.
My guess is that Kennedy gets at least three opinions. Kennedy will probably write Tex. DHCA, AZ. Leg, and Obergefell. Roberts looks more and more likely to write Burwell (which seemed inevitable, but still).
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked