BertramCooper
Banned
No, it isn't.
All online polls are total bullshit and less than worthless. Every single one of them.
Anyone with even the slightest knowledge of polling and statistics knows this.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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No, it isn't.
All online polls are total bullshit and less than worthless. Every single one of them.
Anyone with even the slightest knowledge of polling and statistics knows this.
Coriolanus
Banned
What Bertram is pointing out is that you did the equivalent of posting a poll asking in FreeRepublic which would be their favourite candidate.
Would most likely be Cruz. Which has less than zero chance of anything.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Ron Paul.
ErasureAcer
Banned
So what is Hillary's social site? DailyKOS? I've been a lurker on Democratic Underground for over 10 years... and I've never seen the most progressive candidate for President running as a Democrat get the majority of support there let alone up 90% to 10%. Truly, it has never happened.
Bernie salt is going to be in full force in 11 months. Keep ignoring the polls my friend.
you know good and well that sites like those and even our site are in no way indicative of the support a candidate ultimately gets.
PhoenixDark
Banned
What was Romney's social site in 2012? What about McCain's in 2008?
The far left doesn't make up the majority of the democrat base, especially now. Most of the base loves Obama and likes Hillary. Bernie Sanders doesn't appeal to the parts of the base that caused Obama to beat Hillary, specifically minorities and young people (especially young women). Bernie is doing quite well with white college students right now...but will that last? I don't know.
Sanders simply isn't talented or charismatic enough to pull off what Obama did. He united liberals, non political people, minorities, young people, moderates, etc. I see Sanders fans constantly posting anecdotes about republican friends supporting Sanders but that doesn't make a trend. The Clinton machine can be beaten, Obama proved that. But the Hillary machine now employs the architects of Obama's victory...
Orbis Tabula
Member
I dunno. What's their track record? Do they normally call these things correctly? Or do they normally skew far left from what happens in reality?
ErasureAcer
Banned
The poll that had him down 8 in NH by CNN, down 10 by Suffolk, 12 by Morning Consult? Or the one one down 32 by Bloomberg? Which quite frankly seems made up when you consider the other 3.
Then you have Bloomberg's Iowa poll(where Bernie is doing best amongst the polls released so far...only poll in Iowa in the last month)...where Bernie is doing better than their NH poll as he's only down 26 in Iowa.
So let's say Bernie is down 10 points in NH, the average of the 3 polls to the one that doesn't make sense from Bloomberg. That means Bloomberg is ripping Bernie off by 22% in NH, 10 compared to 32. Most likely they're doing the same shit in Iowa. Let's boost their Iowa poll to +22 Bernie. Now he's only down 4% in Iowa and 10% in NH.
I'm not ignoring the polls. The data provided tells me Bernie is trailing slightly at the moment. Sure, we do need more polls from Iowa and that's a total guess based on Bloomberg's shitty poll from NH which doesn't match the other 3, so why believe the Iowa one? We'll soon find out whenever someone that's not named Bloomberg decides to drop a poll from Iowa.
RustyNails
Member
Obama 50-47 approval in CNN/ORC poll.
Only 39% of whites think he's doing good. That's just silly.
Only 39% of whites think he's doing good. That's just silly.
Fucking ridiculous.
It sounds overstated, I know, but there's no denying Obama's race is preventing people from being able to objectively evaluate his performance as President and react accordingly. People are letting racial bias cloud their judgement, really. It's so stupid.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Maybe he shouldn't be in support of the TPP.
TPP sucks, but that's not the reason.
I'm sorry but you are coming off as being completely delusional in here. Get a grip.
Coriolanus
Banned
That greater democratic outreach to minorities would come at some degree of expense of white popular opinion should be no surprise to anyone.
Especially in times of heightened racial tension.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Because that's the main reason white people don't support Obama. Come on.
I doubt race plays the main role but it's certainly a factor. Another is the economy; a lot of poor to working class whites aren't doing well. The other issue is racial tension.
Few more decades until you guys are a minority. Can't wait until I can cross the street when I see a white person walking towards me. Maybe gender roles will be such that I'll be carrying a purse then, and can also clutch it while crossing the street.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Supreme Court looks to gut public sector unions next term.
Aaron Strife
Banned
He's had a good week. Hope he finishes his term at around 51% approval. Or you know, higher.
Every time I talked about Obamacare building a positive legacy for him I had to add "unless SCOTUS guts it" which isn't the case anymore. The only thing that could sink him at this point is something completely unforeseen. And the time is running out on that one.
Aaron Strife
Banned
One thing that would be nice to see is Obamacare favorable ratings rise. I think there was a poll recently that showed it rated more positively than negatively for the first time since they started polling on it. Democrats don't seem to hide from it as much (Pryor especially defended it pretty well in 2014) but it would certainly give Hillary less reason to.
"My candidate isn't down 30 points! He's only down 10 points! That means he'll definitely win! He's also extremely popular on this fringe liberal website! No, not this fringe liberal website, a different one."
bodyofanamerican
Member
I am really looking forward to this complete and utter fraud Christie flame out and fail miserably in the primaries.
He's probably doing close to average with whites in the west and northeast, but his 20% or so approval rate among whites in the deep south does tend to skew his numbers downwards.
PhoenixDark
Banned
You mean a republican victory in the 2016 election (although I doubt a President Bush or Rubio would repeal the law). It would be dangerous to take healthcare from 20+ million people...but then again they don't vote consistently enough to really punish republicans.
We can keep this going all the way until June 2016 or Bernie drops out beforehand. I will be enjoying this every step of the way.
We can keep this going all the way until June 2016 or Bernie drops out beforehand. I will be enjoying this every step of the way.
Is there a runner-up prize for the Democratic primary that I'm not aware of? Do they think Hillary is gonna have a stroke or something? This is obscene.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Aaron Strife
Banned
They vote in presidential elections.
Frankly Hillary will only lose if Obama's presidency collapses in the eleventh hour - which at this point would be something unforeseen. The Republican victory would be a consequence of that unforeseen something.
The country is too polarized for a 2000-esque situation where you had a bunch of swing voters who liked Clinton but were still willing to give Bush a chance. Hillary just needs to turn out the base, who likes her a lot more than internet liberals give her credit for (see that poll above). All she needs to do is this
http://www.270towin.com/2016_election_predictions.php?mapid=bLJo
Avon Barksdale
Member
Chris Christie is less popular than Donald Trump...in Michigan.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Eh, Hillary's baggage makes me think she could lose on her own, with the right leak/bombshell/October Surprise/etc. Whether you care about the Clinton Foundation stuff and emails or not, her general disregard for rules should concern you. It's the same type of blatant, petty shit that they've been doing forever. My concern is that she breezes through the primaries, gets the nomination...and then gets hit with a scandal she can't bullshit her way out of by playing the victim/gender card.
Under normal circumstances sure I think she'll win, but I'm concerned...
ErasureAcer
Banned
And how well did that work out for Romney?
In other news, Bernie Sanders expecting 9,500 people to show up to his rally in Madison on Wednesday night. Think the venue holds around 10,000(most likely just the seats) but they had an RSVP list of 12,000 which probably includes the main floor of the arena.
Bernie is going to be in professional sports arenas fairly soon if there's not an empty seat.
Aaron Strife
Banned
That's fair I guess - I probably overrate Clinton as a candidate.
Yellowtail
Member
Macho Madness
Member
Ron Paul 2008 guys! Tell your friends!
ErasureAcer
Banned
With the media killing Bernie? Unfortunately for the media...broadband internet is far more accessible now than it was 12 years ago, people are more aware of the media's conservative bias, Bernie is actually running on legitimate stuff that only he espouses...Howard Dean was milk toast.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You do realize that the entire point of that post was that those guys didn't even get out of the primary, right?
Also, the word is "milquetoast." Not "milk toast."
Everyone here knows I am a staunch Hillary supporter but the difference between you and others here who support Bernie is they are in touch with reality.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Damn, you owned me sun. Good job.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
It wasn't in any way supposed to "own" you. Just wanted to help you avoid further embarrassment in the future, that's all.
Honestly it would have to be something huge with real evidence at this point. Conservatives have cried wolf too many times when it comes to Hilary over the last few years.
Rhomega Beta
Member
Yellowtail
Member
Howard Dean didn't lose because of the media. The Dean Scream came after his campaign had begun to collapse and he came third in Iowa.
The NYT knew what it was talking about in August 2003:
The Iowa caucuses are about three things: organization, organization and organization. There's a reason it routinely predicts the eventual Democratic nominee (unlike New Hampshire which is routinely contrarian). It's the single best test of a campaign's ground game, GOTV operation, advocacy group outreach, endorsement game etc. The Deaniacs couldn't compete with Kerry's experienced staff and volunteers. They were too young, too amateur, too inexperienced and had little grasp of the inside politics of the caucus system compared to Kerry's old-hands. In 2008 Clinton actually ran a very good Iowa campaign, but Obama ran the best caucus operation in history. On just about every level it raised the bar and showed how he could take down the Clinton machine across the country. And guess who Obama's team is working for now?
Hillary's so far ahead right now on the ground in Iowa it's unreal. Bernie's got 10 staff out there and 1 office open, Hillary has just opened her 10th office and has 150+ highly trained volunteers pounding the pavements already. Bernie might close the gap in the polls there but on caucus night her team will destroy his. As the NYT said, it's one thing touring liberal utopias like Denver and Madison and Seattle and Portland and drawing huge (homogeneous) crowds seeking their latest savior, it's quite another to be able to put together a viable campaign.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Says the guy with the Lions avatar....oh god.
BertramCooper
Banned
Zing!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
We made the playoffs last year. To us, that's like a Super Bowl victory.
I figured you'd be sympathetic since you're basically supporting the Detroit Lions of the upcoming presidential cycle.
You sound just like us Lions fans: "Bernie's really good in this one area, and if he tries really hard, and everything falls into his favor, and most democrats don't vote in the primary, and people in the general election ignore that he said he's a socialist, and voting machines break down on election day, he'll roll into the White House! See, he's not that far away!"
I've been there, friend. Let it go.
Always amusing to see people screaming "the Supreme Court must be stopped!" when the ruling they are currently having a conniption over was made by the Oklahoma Supreme Court.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
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