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[Wilsongt]

Hardly, there's plenty of people here supporting Clinton in this thread. They got the next 10 presidents mapped out based on demographics while totally ignoring what they stand for: Female, Hispanic, Homosexual, Transgender, Hermaphrodite, Asian-American, Islamic, Atheist, Agnostic, Antartican-American.

In this thread, people know Democrats running Bernie would be suicide.

Outside of this thread people don't quite understand the voting populace.

 

[Coriolanus]

In this thread, people know Democrats running Bernie would be suicide.

Outside of this thread people don't quite understand the voting populace.

Should keep in mind that in this thread plenty of people didn't see the reaming that the democrats took in 2014 until it happened, fwiw.

Not that it means that bernie has a chance, obv.

 

[Wilsongt]

Should keep in mind that in this thread plenty of people didn't see the reaming that the democrats took in 2014 until it happened, fwiw.

Not that it means that bernie has a chance, obv.

I don't even think we realized how lazy young voters would have been in 2014z

 

[Coriolanus]

I don't even think we realized how lazy young voters would have been in 2014z

Should also keep in mind that the de facto narrative around these parts was that running candidates that would run away from Obama would be A Good Thing.

Wasn't a proud moment, is what i'm saying.

Heck, errybody pretty much took for granted that at least there were good odds that Florida wouldn't reelect Rick fucking Scott.

 

[Crisco]

Alright legalGaf, it's apparently illegal to transport or possess a beer keg in Utah, how do I get this infringement on my individual rights in front of SCOTUS?

 

[Yellowtail]

It's not nearly as crazy as Reddit though

Or Tumblr...

 

[Orbis Tabula]

GAF is so gungho about Bernie. It's so naively cute. :3

I love Bernie. He's the kind of guy that I wish could be president (moreso than many others, at least) but I'm not counting at all on him winning. I'd rather pick the Democrat with the best chance of winning, and that's Hilary. I might vote for Bernie in a primary, but only if I knew that he wasn't actually going to win. Which sounds weird, but whatever.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Should also keep in mind that the de facto narrative around these parts was that running candidates that would run away from Obama would be A Good Thing.

Wasn't a proud moment, is what i'm saying.

Heck, errybody pretty much took for granted that at least there were good odds that Florida wouldn't reelect Rick fucking Scott.

I knew from day 1 that the democrats were in for a shellacking in 2014. MT, SD and WV were guaranteed pick ups. Pryor was toast looking at Lincoln, La went hard right since 08 so Landrieu was a goner and Alaska is Alaska.

The only disappointments should have been IA, CO & NC with Hagan, Bailey(lol) and Udall(Uterus).

If the Romney state D's dont survive in 2018, the Senate will be fought in swing states with a slight R/D bias going forward.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Well its too bad for clarence that civil rights are not up for majority vote

Of course they are. The rights are either embodied in the Constitution by popular vote, in statutes by the vote of the relevant legislature, or Constitutional law by the vote of the Supreme Court.

I think its absurd to base things on their chronology.

I think the extent to which you're willing to go to build your case is absurd. Amendments amend. They change what existed before them.

Of course the 14th writers didn't disavow the death penalty and the original framers didn't either but we have the 8th amendment and can read it today with new understanding.

Right. Like I said, you're imposing your own philosophy on the Constitution, not interpreting the Constitution.

We've had 1st amendment case law trump arguments on more recent amendments. Why aren't the new cases controlling? Obviously everyone's read the 1st. Shouldn't the others ALWAYS have precedent? No we understand that certain values (not chronology) have precedent.

I'd need to see an example to respond more fully, but courts are reluctant to interpret one amendment as repealing another--even in part--unless that intention is clear (e.g., if the later amendment clearly contradicts the former). For this reason, I don't think the Fourteenth Amendment would be read as repealing--even in part--the Eighth. But it makes no sense to read the Eighth to prohibit what the contemporary Fifth and later Fourteenth clearly allow. And if we're going to entertain the sorts of absurd arguments required to give rise to a contradiction between those Amendments, then we may as well also entertain the argument that the Fourteenth Amendment partially repealed the Eighth.

I've read the whole back and forth (so far) on this and am going to agree with Meta on this one, legally speaking.

I changed my mind. You win the argument, NYCmetsfan.

EDIT: Oh, I forgot about this: Ted Cruz Watched Hard Core Porn With CJ Rehnquist and J. O'Connor for Reno v. ACLU

In his new book, Sen. Ted Cruz, who clerked for the Chief, that the two Justices apparently asked a librarian to show them how easy it was to find hardcore porn on the internet. The Washington Post has the report:

Cruz served as a law clerk to then Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist. One day, he was standing behind Rehnquist and Justice Sandra Day O’Connor.

“We were in front of a large computer screen gazing at explicit, hard-core pornography,” Cruz wrote.

The reason? The court was considering a case challenging a law that regulated online porn. The clerks were older and not well-versed in the Internet, so court librarians set up a tutorial for the justices and their clerks on how easy it was to find porn online. Cruz watched as the librarian typed in the word “cantaloupe,” though it was misspelled.

“A slew of hard-core, explicit images showed up onscreen,” he wrote. “As we watched these graphic pictures fill our screens, wide-eyed, no one said a word. Except for Justice O’Connor, who lowered her head, squinted slightly, and muttered, ‘Oh, my.'”

 

[PhoenixDark]

Or Tumblr...

Ron Paul.

I'm going to vote for Sanders in the primary but obviously he's not going to win. I honestly think O'Malley will be Hillary's tougher challenge. Right now no one seems to know about him/care but the debates/campaign season should help him. Right now Sanders is basically the only democrat doing big interviews, as Hillary hides from the press.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I knew from day 1 that the democrats were in for a shellacking in 2014. MT, SD and WV were guaranteed pick ups. Pryor was toast looking at Lincoln, La went hard right since 08 so Landrieu was a goner and Alaska is Alaska.

The only disappointments should have been IA, CO & NC with Hagan, Bailey(lol) and Udall(Uterus).

If the Romney state D's dont survive in 2018, the Senate will be fought in swing states with a slight R/D bias going forward.

Alaska ended up being super close so I was bummed about that.

Kansas was a shock because the polls still had Orman winning but Roberts won handily.

I wish Dems had triaged AR/LA for CO/AK/NC/KS so they could at least cobble together a majority, but hindsight is whatever.

A better candidate in Iowa and a better campaign in Colorado would have saved those two, the rest were doomed from the start.

 

[RustyNails]

What does Gaf think of the Iran nuclear deadline stealthily pushed back? Good, bad or ugly?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Alaska ended up being super close so I was bummed about that.

Kansas was a shock because the polls still had Orman winning but Roberts won handily.

I wish Dems had triaged AR/LA for CO/AK/NC/KS so they could at least cobble together a majority, but hindsight is whatever.

A better candidate in Iowa and a better campaign in Colorado would have saved those two, the rest were doomed from the start.

You certainly didn't feel that way from the start right up until election day so I am glad at your humbleness for admitting it in hindsight.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=137467732&postcount=3334

 

[B-Dubs]

What does Gaf think of the Iran nuclear deadline stealthily pushed back? Good, bad or ugly?

It was always going to be pushed back, everyone said it would be when the deal sounded like it was getting close a few months ago. It means everything is likely going as expected.

 

[Teggy]

Cantaloupe? What was the misspelling?

 

[RustyNails]

It was always going to be pushed back, everyone said it would be when the deal sounded like it was getting close a few months ago. It means everything is likely going as expected.

Man, imagine Obama's week if the nuclear deal were to be reached by tomorrow. Choom Gang back in the house.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I'm fine with going past a deadline to get a deal done, I never understood the idea that you could get this far and just give up because a deadline passed. However...if it's just Iran dicking us around with no true intention of signing anything...sure, in that case I'd understand walking away.

 

[thepotatoman]

I knew from day 1 that the democrats were in for a shellacking in 2014. MT, SD and WV were guaranteed pick ups. Pryor was toast looking at Lincoln, La went hard right since 08 so Landrieu was a goner and Alaska is Alaska.

The only disappointments should have been IA, CO & NC with Hagan, Bailey(lol) and Udall(Uterus).

If the Romney state D's dont survive in 2018, the Senate will be fought in swing states with a slight R/D bias going forward.

I think we were all prepared for the likelihood that democrats lose the senate, while seeing possibilities for maybe finding two lean Rs going D in order to tie the senate up. No one expected all the toss ups and lean Ds, including IA, CO, NC, & KS, going R easily.

I guess it's only 3 or 4 seats, but I wouldn't say that's the "only disappointment" when a 3 or 4 seat swing is pretty huge in the senate. For instance Udall and Bailey alone probably would have changed the math enough to block the TPP. That 4 seat swing also changes the math for which party holds the senate after the 2016 and the 2018 elections. It shifts 2016 from likely D to lean D and 2018 from lean R to likely R.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I think we were all prepared for the likelihood that democrats lose the senate, while seeing possibilities for maybe finding two lean Rs going D in order to tie the senate up. No one expected all the toss ups and lean Ds, including IA, CO, NC, & KS, going R easily.

I guess it's only 3 or 4 seats, but I wouldn't say that's the "only disappointment" when a 3 or 4 seat swing is pretty huge in the senate. For instance Udall and Bailey alone probably would have changed the math enough to block the TPP. That 4 seat swing also changes the math for which party holds the senate after the 2016 and the 2018 elections. It shifts 2016 from likely D to lean D and 2018 from lean R to likely R.

All 6 of those states went for Romney by 15-30+ points. The swing ultimately was going to be too much for any of them to overcome in a wave which did happen and I argue even in a neutral environment. It was a battle of the bases.

This applies to the 5 Romney state D's as well next time they are up. 2012 was an exception and 2018 will prove like 2014 to be the rule. Partnership is so bad its going to make the senate I believe flip flop every two years with swing states deciding control mirroring the presidential battlegrounds.

IA, CO, WI, PA, NH, FL, OH, VA, NV & NC with GA and AZ down the line.

 

[Mike M]

Cantaloupe? What was the misspelling?

Spoiler

Cuntaloupe?

 

[Oblivion]

Bet you guys haven't heard this argument before:

"It's the Democrats that love the confederate flag, not Republicans!"

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Between ISIS gaining huge amounts of territory and the Ebola scare 2014 broke super-badly for the Dems. It depressed their vote which was already going to be down and turned everything into a route. Bad stuff but it doesn't mean that the basic analysis of why Hillary is the favorite for 2016 is wrong.

 

[Plinko]

Anybody read that Salon article about Ann Coulter and her drop in popularity? My goodness--the woman is a huge racist.

 

[Snake]

The President decided there hasn't been enough good news this week, confirms rule change to extend overtime threshold.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barack-obama/a-hard-days-work-deserves-a-fair-days-pay_b_7691922.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/b...ake-more-americans-eligible-for-overtime.html

 

[ivysaur12]

Also want to point out that Elise Stefanik (NY-21), the 30-year-old Republican congresswoman who is being touted as "The Millennial Whisperer" and is chairing a task force on how the party can better reach millennials has not said one thing about Obergefell since its decision. No press release. No tweet. Nothing besides a vague worded statement from before her election about how she thought this was a state issue and it was legal in New York.

The Onion has already called the type of Millennial she's probably connecting best with

 

[Oblivion]

The President decided there hasn't been enough good news this week, confirms rule change to extend overtime threshold.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barack-obama/a-hard-days-work-deserves-a-fair-days-pay_b_7691922.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/b...ake-more-americans-eligible-for-overtime.html

Boo, I thought we were going to get an announcement of how much the raise will be. We already knew months beforehand that this was gonna happen.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Also want to point out that Elise Stefanik (NY-21), the 30-year-old Republican congresswoman who is being touted as "The Millennial Whisperer" and is chairing a task force on how the party can better reach millennials has not said one thing about Obergefell since its decision. No press release. No tweet. Nothing besides a vague worded statement from before her election about how she thought this was a state issue and it was legal in New York.

The Onion has already called the type of Millennial she's probably connecting best with

"African American HAM radio enthusiasts."

I peed a little.

 

[thepotatoman]

Boo, I thought we were going to get an announcement of how much the raise will be. We already knew months beforehand that this was gonna happen.

Right now, too many Americans are working long days for less pay than they deserve. That's partly because we've failed to update overtime regulations for years -- and an exemption meant for highly paid, white collar employees now leaves out workers making as little as $23,660 a year -- no matter how many hours they work.

This week, I'll head to Wisconsin to discuss my plan to extend overtime protections to nearly 5 million workers in 2016, covering all salaried workers making up to about $50,400 next year.

Isn't that all you need to know?

 

[Oblivion]

Isn't that all you need to know?

Clearly my reading comprehension sucks.

In that case, let me amend my prior post to: ALL HAIL THE GOD-EMPEROR!

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Jeb Bush is an establishment beltway insider carpetbagger Washington elite RINO confirmed.

Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush called the Confederate flag a "racist" symbol on Monday, lauding South Carolina's efforts to remove it from the Capitol and pointing to a similar move he made as Florida's governor.

"The symbols were racist," Bush said, responding to a question about the flag from an African-American employee while on tour at Nephron Pharmaceuticals Plant in West Columbia.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/29/politics/jeb-bush-confederate-flag-is-racist/index.html

I suppose being honest about American history is one way to stand out from the GOP field.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Jeb Bush is an establishment beltway insider carpetbagger Washington elite RINO confirmed.



http://www.cnn.com/2015/06/29/politics/jeb-bush-confederate-flag-is-racist/index.html

I suppose being honest about American history is one way to stand out from the GOP field.

Scott Walker is going to destroy these dudes lol.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Scott Walker is going to destroy these dudes lol.

Eh, I don't really think the confederate flag issue is going to cause a major swing in primary votes. While there are a decent number of people in the South that support the flag on state ground they're probably in the minority of the Republican electorate on a state-to-state basis. Not to mention a lot of confederate flag enthusiasts never vote. Because, y'know, illegitimate yankee occupiers and all.

 

[Oblivion]

Wait, when are these new overtime rules supposed to kick in?

 

[Diablos]

Also want to point out that Elise Stefanik (NY-21), the 30-year-old Republican congresswoman who is being touted as "The Millennial Whisperer" and is chairing a task force on how the party can better reach millennials has not said one thing about Obergefell since its decision. No press release. No tweet. Nothing besides a vague worded statement from before her election about how she thought this was a state issue and it was legal in New York.

The Onion has already called the type of Millennial she's probably connecting best with

Well, on the GOP spectrum, you have all the nasty remarks we've been seeing ranging to "nice" which is basically saying nothing.

lol:

“This first chair meeting is all about getting to know the Millennial generation, their political demographic, and cultural attributes,” Republican policy chairman Rep. Luke Messer (R., Ind.) said to the taskforce. “We want to know what makes them tick. They want their voices heard, and their ideas to be taken seriously.”

Hang out with Democrats for an afternoon. Problem solved.

The President decided there hasn't been enough good news this week, confirms rule change to extend overtime threshold.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barack-obama/a-hard-days-work-deserves-a-fair-days-pay_b_7691922.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/b...ake-more-americans-eligible-for-overtime.html

This fucking President, wow.

He's having an amazing second term. Short of swapping in a Democratic House and Senate majority from another multiverse you can't ask for much better than this when you're a. in your second term and b. forced to live with Congress dominated by the GOP.

 

[Aaron Strife]

You certainly didn't feel that way from the start right up until election day so I am glad at your humbleness for admitting it in hindsight.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=137467732&postcount=3334

Yeah I admit I was wrong.

 

[HylianTom]

So Trump was given several chances to back-away from his comments about immigrants, and he refused to do so. It'll be interesting to see if media (both English and Spanish-speaking) continue to focus on this issue.

I'm sure Democratic strategists are high-fiving each time his words are repeated on television, and now NBC cutting ties with him has given the whole thing new life.

 

[Teggy]

Bet you guys haven't heard this argument before:

"It's the Democrats that love the confederate flag, not Republicans!"

"Did you know Abraham Lincoln, who signed the Emancipation Proclamation, was a Republican?"

 

[Teggy]

Godammit I am getting Ted Cruz 2016 banners on GAF.

 

[Black Mamba]

Godammit I am getting Ted Cruz 2016 banners on GAF.

Gay marriage would have no real world consequences, they said...

 

[Macho Madness]

I did find this funny on the Daily Show tonight

 

[Averon]

The GOP already had an uphill battle winning Hispanic voters before Trumps recent comments. Every moment Trump is in the race makes it that much harder for the eventual GOP nominee to win Hispanic voters they desperately need.

The GOP establishment that actually wants to win in 2016 and not using the GOP primaries as an excuse to grandstand and self-promote--which is exactly what Trump is doing and his only reasons for getting into the race--must be livid.

 

[ivysaur12]

Well.

 

[thepotatoman]

Should also keep in mind that the de facto narrative around these parts was that running candidates that would run away from Obama would be A Good Thing.

Wasn't a proud moment, is what i'm saying.

Heck, errybody pretty much took for granted that at least there were good odds that Florida wouldn't reelect Rick fucking Scott.

Well i do remember we were pretty positive about Wieland's stratagy of doing a very progressive ad even in a red state, and criticizing Udall specifically for running a bad campaign, though we still expected him to win.

I even criticized republicans for focusing on obama so much in states that like him, but I guess it became a lot easier to change the focus to how democrats weren't promoting him after they lost.

I also don't think it was wrong to say that running with obama and on immigration reform will kill their chances in red states, but I guess it was wrong to believe they had a chance in red states to begin with.

 

[Jackson50]

What does Gaf think of the Iran nuclear deadline stealthily pushed back? Good, bad or ugly?

I'll reserve good for a concrete agreement. But it's neither bad nor ugly. Arms control negotiations are typically protracted affairs; all diplomacy is truthfully. The Salt II negotiations took nine years to yield an agreement; even if the Americans eventually scuttled it in response to Afghanistan. The current round of negotiations began in late 2013, and they have progressed steadily since then. There's no cause for worry. If the deadline is extended, it's because all sides are committed to an agreement.

The President decided there hasn't been enough good news this week, confirms rule change to extend overtime threshold.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/barack-obama/a-hard-days-work-deserves-a-fair-days-pay_b_7691922.html

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/30/b...ake-more-americans-eligible-for-overtime.html

The National Retail Federation, a trade group, has argued that expanded overtime will “add to employers’ costs, undermine customer service, hinder productivity, generate more litigation opportunities for trial lawyers and ultimately harm job creation.”

A risible list of bullshit. The only effect that's remotely likely is that employers' costs will increase. But that's not undesirable. Costs will increase because employers either have to pay the employee fairly or higher new employees.

 

[BertramCooper]

Godammit I am getting Ted Cruz 2016 banners on GAF.

I've been getting Jeb! banners for a couple weeks now.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

The GOP already had an uphill battle winning Hispanic voters before Trumps recent comments. Every moment Trump is in the race makes it that much harder for the eventual GOP nominee to win Hispanic voters they desperately need.

The GOP establishment that actually wants to win in 2016 and not using the GOP primaries as an excuse to grandstand and self-promote--which is exactly what Trump is doing and his only reasons for getting into the race--must be livid.

Every Republic presidential candidate should publicly denounce Trump's comments. I was amazed by how big this story, and the lack of response by the GOP, is in the Spanish speaking media. Its a huge problem they don't seem to be aware of.

 

[BertramCooper]

Every Republic presidential candidate should publicly denounce Trump's comments. I was amazed by how big this story, and the lack of response by the GOP, is in the Spanish speaking media. Its a huge problem they don't seem to be aware of.

They're not going to denounce them because they all want Trump's supporters when Trump's campaign inevitably goes down the shitter.

It's awful. How many times in the past few years have GOP leaders and candidates been completely unwilling to call out truly reprehensible shit out of fear of their crazy base? They can't fucking call out racism because they need racists to vote for them!

 

[ErasureAcer]

Bernie up 90% to 10% in head-to-head with Hillary on Democratic Underground. Around 850 total vote so far.

Bernie has the liberal base(the people who vote, and most surely in a primary/caucus) and as I've said before will most likely win Iowa and New Hampshire or any other place he gets on the ground and speaks quite frequently. As the campaign progresses only the super delegates, big money from corporate interests and mainstream media will save Hillary. The base doesn't want her.

 

[BertramCooper]

Bernie up 90% to 10% in head-to-head with Hillary on Democratic Underground. Around 850 total vote so far.

Bernie has the liberal base(the people who vote, and most surely in a primary/caucus) and as I've said before will most likely win Iowa and New Hampshire or any other place he gets on the ground and speaks quite frequently. As the campaign progresses only the super delegates, big money from corporate interests and mainstream media will save Hillary. The base doesn't want her.

Dude.






DUDE.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Dude.

DUDE.

Is Democratic Underground not a good measurement of active and voting liberals? Your response is "dude"...? You better chip in a few more dollars to Hillary or better yet write her campaign and tell her to....I dunno, start campaigning.