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[Aaron Strife]

The GOP's Rob Portman Problem.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/politics/the-gop-s-rob-portman-predicament-20150630?utm_content=buffer52e4f&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I think it's reasonable to assume WI, PA, OH, FL, NH and IL could all go blue even if Hillary doesn't win by a huge amount. Then just limit our losses in 2018 to 2 to tie and rebound in 2020 (picking up Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Colorado).

Democrats need to focus on winning back the Senate in 2016 but also passing independent redistricting commissions everywhere they can. We can do it in Ohio, Florida and Michigan but also Nebraska (shore up Brad Ashford), Utah (create a liberal SLC based district), Arkansas (create a swing district instead of having 3 that blue dogs can supposedly win and never do), Missouri (protect the Dem incumbents from getting shitcanned in 2020 redistricting). I mean, it would be nice if Democrats racked up a huge margin in 2016 and won back the House anyway but that would take a miracle.

 

[eBay Huckster]

I think it's reasonable to assume WI, PA, OH, FL, NH and IL could all go blue even if Hillary doesn't win by a huge amount. Then just limit our losses in 2018 to 2 to tie and rebound in 2020 (picking up Iowa, Maine, North Carolina and Colorado).

Democrats need to focus on winning back the Senate in 2016 but also passing independent redistricting commissions everywhere they can. We can do it in Ohio, Florida and Michigan but also Nebraska (shore up Brad Ashford), Utah (create a liberal SLC based district), Arkansas (create a swing district instead of having 3 that blue dogs can supposedly win and never do), Missouri (protect the Dem incumbents from getting shitcanned in 2020 redistricting). I mean, it would be nice if Democrats racked up a huge margin in 2016 and won back the House anyway but that would take a miracle.

Do you believe in miracles?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Do you believe in miracles?

Looking ahead to the general election, Clinton continues to hold significant leads over Bush (54% Clinton to 41% Bush) and Christie (56% Clinton to 37% Christie). She has also opened up wide leads over Rubio (56% Clinton to 39% Rubio) and Walker (57% Clinton to 38% Walker), as those two have slipped among independents. Clinton's clearest advantage, however, is over Donald Trump, 59% say they would vote for Clinton if the 2016 match-up were between her and Trump, 34% say they would back Trump.

Dominating

 

[ivysaur12]

Do you believe in miracles?

I simultaneously don't and have to believe this. I mean. Like.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Do you believe in miracles?

If Donald Trump wins the Republican primary, I would consider that definitive proof of god.

 

[Frank the Great]

Dominating

Jesus. The fact that she is consistently pulling higher than 50% over all of her rivals has to be terrifying for Republicans. They have a lot of persuading to do.

 

[Measley]

Dominating

I honestly don't believe that Bush would do that well in a general election. That name will drag him down.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Do you believe in miracles?

This is the best worst best news I've read all day.

 

[Trouble]

Trump vs Sanders in the general would be amazing.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

We're back to silly polls that represent nothing and spending pages comment on them

We're back to early 2014

 

[Wilsongt]

My Facebook page is becoming full of lies about the charleston shooter receiving donations as well as the media supposedly ignoring the church fires...

It's really sad that people are doing nothing but fanning the flames by spreading shit like this...

 

[Coriolanus]

We're back to silly polls that represent nothing and spending pages comment on them

We're back to early 2014

Did you truly expect anything else in a politics thread more than a year before the elections?

 

[Thequietone]

Jesus. The fact that she is consistently pulling higher than 50% over all of her rivals has to be terrifying for Republicans. They have a lot of persuading to do.

They will be in denial all the way until the election results come in like with Romney. "The polls are skewed. Romney is really winning. Numbers can be manipulated into whatever you want them to say. ETC."

I'm willing to bet it will be Clinton vs. Bush. No way the GOP will pick anyone else unless they decide to give into the tea party idiots. Trump would be hilarious but I can't picture it happening.

 

[NeoXChaos]

We're back to silly polls that represent nothing and spending pages comment on them

We're back to early 2014

A man and woman can dream cant they? Even I know these numbers wont hold. I'm sure you yourself had some predictions back in early 2014.

 

[PhoenixDark]

My Facebook page is becoming full of lies about the charleston shooter receiving donations as well as the media supposedly ignoring the church fires...

It's really sad that people are doing nothing but fanning the flames by spreading shit like this...

Are the fires being reported? I don't watch the news but have seen many black people claim the media isn't saying anything about it.

There's also a weird juxtaposition of the first black president celebrating a "best week ever" in the midst of black churches being burned, and he hasn't said anything about it.

 

[Wilsongt]

Are the fires being reported? I don't watch the news but have seen many black people claim the media isn't saying anything about it.

There's also a weird juxtaposition of the first black president celebrating a "best week ever" in the midst of black churches being burned, and he hasn't said anything about it.

They are. All of them.

Someone made a past about a cvs burning getting more attention than all the churches, which is bullshit.

 

[Plinko]

Trump vs Sanders in the general would be amazing.

Tagline would be, "Whoever wins, we lose!"

 

[Cheebo]

No way the GOP will pick anyone else unless they decide to give into the tea party idiots. Trump would be hilarious but I can't picture it happening.

Scott Walker has been pretty consistently leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire I believe. If he wins both its his to lose, easily.

 

[Ecotic]

Scott Walker has been pretty consistently leading in both Iowa and New Hampshire I believe. If he wins both its his to lose, easily.

Walker leads consistently only in Iowa and Bush leads in New Hampshire. It may come down to South Carolina like Bush vs. McCain.

 

[AndyD]

Heh, Obama just gave a speech on healthcare here in TN and joked that he borrowed a great healthcare idea from Gov. Romney. Then shrugged.... lol. The shrug was a great gif moment.

 

[B-Dubs]

Walker leads consistently only in Iowa and Bush leads in New Hampshire. It may come down to South Carolina like Bush vs. McCain.

Walker's numbers will drop once he enters the race and has to respond to things, he won't be able to sit on the sidelines and shrug much longer.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Tagline would be, "Whoever wins, we lose!"

That was Kerry vs. Bush. AVP just came out...that was the tagline. How fitting to that election as well.

Sanders is great...funny you are still posting with that Lions avatar. You know everything about losing.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Walker's numbers will drop once he enters the race and has to respond to things, he won't be able to sit on the sidelines and shrug much longer.

So he is Hillary Clinton.

 

[Plinko]

That was Kerry vs. Bush. AVP just came out...that was the tagline. How fitting to that election as well.

Sanders is great...funny you are still posting with that Lions avatar. You know everything about losing.

That joke is older than Bernie Sanders and probably has a better shot at the nomination than Bernie does.

 

[eBay Huckster]

So he is Hillary Clinton.

Hillary Clinton in a parallel universe where the issues actually being brought up are more salient than "emails" and "your charitable foundation"

 

[Oblivion]

The governor’s standing in New Jersey has fallen so far that a poll last week showed his approval rating lower than that of Jon S. Corzine, the unpopular Democrat he unseated and still uses as a punching bag. Most voters dislike “everything about him,” the same survey found of Mr. Christie. Other polls show that most Republicans in the state do not think he has the temperament to be president.


The interim schools superintendent here in his hometown, where he declared his candidacy on Tuesday, skipped his announcement, saying Mr. Christie has been a “terrible governor.” Close friends and prominent Republicans in New Jersey keep defecting to the campaigns of other presidential candidates.

Mr. Christie, for his part, sounds like a spouse who is done trying.

Pressed by reporters on Friday about why he had not held a town-hall-style meeting in the state in six weeks, the governor said: “I got tired of it. I’ll just be honest with you: I got tired of it. So I didn’t do it.”

lol

But hey, it's okay, because Christie has people like this douche on his side:

There are still those who admire the governor, or at least identify with him: “He’s like me,” said Paul Kehler, 57, from Lawrenceville. “You think it, you say it, you know? Then you have to retract most of it afterward, you have to pull your foot out of your mouth. But I like that approach, that no-nonsense, this is how it is, this is how it’s going to be.”

"He's just like me!"

"He may be a terrible governor, but I still wanna have a beer with him, ya know?"


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/01/u...ould-be-new-jersey.html?_r=1&smid=nytpolitics

 

[ivysaur12]

How can your numbers be lower than Cozine. HOW.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Did you truly expect anything else in a politics thread more than a year before the elections?

More about cuba, overtime rule, iran, greece, local politics. IDK. I mean im not objecting to talking about 2016 but the posts like the trump poll above are meaningless and we all should know that.

 

[Fuchsdh]

I find it disheartening when some Bernie supporters say that their second choice is Rand Paul. I don't get it.

People my age liked Ron Paul because he was for drug legalization, and were at the age where smoking pot freely seemed like the most pressing issue to them. It's not rocket science.

 

[Coriolanus]

More about cuba, overtime rule, iran, greece, local politics. IDK. I mean im not objecting to talking about 2016 but the posts like the trump poll above are meaningless and we all should know that.

The greece referendum thread is hot fyra fyra fyra. come on over.

As for the rest, meh, consensus.

 

[pigeon]

The greece referendum thread is hot fyra fyra fyra. come on over.

As for the rest, meh, consensus.

I'm hesitant to jump into the Greece thread because it's been going on for so long that I assume all the sides are hardened and ready to shoot by now.

At this point, if I were Greek, I'd favor leaving the euro. It would probably be terrible, but staying in the euro will definitely be terrible. Without control of fiscal or monetary policy, the Greek economy will go past Great Depression bad and into French Revolution bad (or Weimar Republic bad, which in some ways is a better analogy). Germany has made it pretty clear that they simply don't care about Greeks. So why stick around and suffer?

Admittedly, leaving the euro would probably also be terrible because all the EU bodies (and Germany) would work hard to make you suffer as much as possible to ensure that leaving the euro looks like a bad idea (because if it doesn't, obviously Spain and Italy are out the door next). So that's pretty bad. But getting hit because you're leaving is probably better than getting hit because you're staying.

 

[Coriolanus]

I'm hesitant to jump into the Greece thread because it's been going on for so long that I assume all the sides are hardened and ready to shoot by now.

At this point, if I were Greek, I'd favor leaving the euro. It would probably be terrible, but staying in the euro will definitely be terrible. Without control of fiscal or monetary policy, the Greek economy will go past Great Depression bad and into French Revolution bad (or Weimar Republic bad, which in some ways is a better analogy). Germany has made it pretty clear that they simply don't care about Greeks. So why stick around and suffer?

Admittedly, leaving the euro would probably also be terrible because all the EU bodies (and Germany) would work hard to make you suffer as much as possible to ensure that leaving the euro looks like a bad idea (because if it doesn't, obviously Spain and Italy are out the door next). So that's pretty bad. But getting hit because you're leaving is probably better than getting hit because you're staying.

There's actually an FMI study made recently that pointed out that even if Greece adopted every single measure that the creditors wanted, they'd still be at 118% of the GDP in debt 15 years from now, so... yeah.

Anyway, the referendum thread was created, like, not even five days ago. I'll create a new one after it has a result (or is cancelled).

 

[pigeon]

There's actually an FMI study made recently that pointed out that even if Greece adopted every single measure that the creditors wanted, they'd still be at 118% of the GDP in debt 15 years from now, so... yeah.

Anyway, the referendum thread was created, like, not even five days ago. I'll create a new one after it has a result (or is cancelled).

I guess I've been seeing other Greek threads. It's kind of a rolling party. I'll post in that thread as well.

 

[ivysaur12]

I get why you'd want to take out the subsidies.

HuffPost Pollster ‏@pollsterpolls
Obama Health Care Law: Favor/Oppose - Favor 43%, Oppose 40% (Kaiser/PSRA 6/25-6/29) http://huff.to/1IOPX40

 

[Aaron Strife]

Do you believe in miracles?

I mean, I'm certainly not counting on it. But if Republicans actually went with Donald Trump Democrats would easily pick up 50 seats.

I have a conservative friend from high school who's rooting for Trump and wants him to win so he can say "Obama, you're fired!" during his victory speech. (Remember, the GOP is the serious grown-up party) I want to believe there are enough Republican primary voters who could put Trump ahead in a split field of Bush, Walker and Rubio.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm hesitant to jump into the Greece thread because it's been going on for so long that I assume all the sides are hardened and ready to shoot by now.

At this point, if I were Greek, I'd favor leaving the euro. It would probably be terrible, but staying in the euro will definitely be terrible. Without control of fiscal or monetary policy, the Greek economy will go past Great Depression bad and into French Revolution bad (or Weimar Republic bad, which in some ways is a better analogy). Germany has made it pretty clear that they simply don't care about Greeks. So why stick around and suffer?

Admittedly, leaving the euro would probably also be terrible because all the EU bodies (and Germany) would work hard to make you suffer as much as possible to ensure that leaving the euro looks like a bad idea (because if it doesn't, obviously Spain and Italy are out the door next). So that's pretty bad. But getting hit because you're leaving is probably better than getting hit because you're staying.

The biggest problem I have is Europe is transparently not trying to solve a problem but instead punish Greece for god knows what reason. I can't see how anyone can say they're doing anything in good faith. It reminds me a lot of republicans and their disgust for those that have less, wanting them to suffer for not being rich.

That and the obvious moves designed to counter their own internal leftist competitors. Its all around quite disgusting and its a shame that, even with its myriad of problems and blame Greece is portrayed as having this all be its fault.

 

[hydrophilic attack]

I'm hesitant to jump into the Greece thread because it's been going on for so long that I assume all the sides are hardened and ready to shoot by now.

This Greece thread has had much better discussion than the previous ones (very much including the one I made, where I made the OP too confrontational).

I can't see how anyone can say they're doing anything in good faith.

Most European media is owned by rich guys with agendas, and they're good at shaping the debate the way they want it.

 

[ivysaur12]

I honestly think Trump is just saying things a lot of primary voters think. "Mexicans crossing the border are rapists? Hell yes!" and his poll numbers reflect that.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Most European media is owned by rich guys with agendas, and they're good at shaping the debate the way they want it.

I mean its just frighting how its the same exact kinda of fox news (neo-liberal) type rhetoric coming from supposed left-leaning folk that's disconcerting

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm hesitant to jump into the Greece thread because it's been going on for so long that I assume all the sides are hardened and ready to shoot by now.

At this point, if I were Greek, I'd favor leaving the euro. It would probably be terrible, but staying in the euro will definitely be terrible. Without control of fiscal or monetary policy, the Greek economy will go past Great Depression bad and into French Revolution bad (or Weimar Republic bad, which in some ways is a better analogy). Germany has made it pretty clear that they simply don't care about Greeks. So why stick around and suffer?

Admittedly, leaving the euro would probably also be terrible because all the EU bodies (and Germany) would work hard to make you suffer as much as possible to ensure that leaving the euro looks like a bad idea (because if it doesn't, obviously Spain and Italy are out the door next). So that's pretty bad. But getting hit because you're leaving is probably better than getting hit because you're staying.

You'd be surprised at how many Greeks would be ok with leaving the Euro for now if it meant a chance at recovery. Germany really fucked them over this time, just looking at what Greece has had to deal with makes it obvious that they were never even given a chance to recover.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

I have a conservative friend from high school who's rooting for Trump and wants him to win so he can say "Obama, you're fired!" during his victory speech. .

That's like, a perfect distillation of political theater though (even if it is 4 years late). Everyone should be able to appreciate a line like that on an aesthetic or cultural level. I'd be disappointed if, in this nightmare scenario, Trump didn't say it after winning. I'd also be angry if hypothetical President Elect Mr. T didn't say that he pities the voter who didn't vote for him. It's like a political dad joke. It's so bad it's good.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Trump isn't winning anything, and TBH I'm starting to wonder if the GOP will find some type of way to keep him off the debate stage. His presence would only serve to make everyone look bad/steal time from legit candidates.

This week has been a disaster for him on every front, yet I can imagine certain people gravitating towards him even more ("he's telling the truth and they're trying to take him down!". But once the primaries start he won't be in the top 4 of any state IMO. Maybe South Carolina, actually...I can see him running quite an ugly campaign there.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Trump isn't winning anything, and TBH I'm starting to wonder if the GOP will find some type of way to keep him off the debate stage. His presence would only serve to make everyone look bad/steal time from legit candidates.

Trying to block him from the debates would only make Trump look like more of an outsider and more attractive to the people who support him. The Republicans have to ride this thing out.

 

[thefro]

I think Trump's a legit factor in the race at this point to at least potentially win a state with so many people running, so the other candidates aren't going to be able to ignore him.

He'll be throwing bombs in the debate and it'll be hilarious to watch.

You're basically just making him stronger the more attention you pay to him at this point until he hits his polling ceiling.

 

[Coriolanus]

He'll be throwing bombs in the debate and it'll be hilarious to watch.

You're assuming that they'll invite him to the debates.

Wouldn't be surprised if we saw a repeat of what happened when he tried to host one in 2012, where the other participants simply refused to attend.

 

[Macho Madness]

Peter King says he's not running.

 

[B-Dubs]

Peter King says he's not running.

Wuss. Trump must have scared him off.

 

[HylianTom]

Trump's going to be a gift that keeps on giving. It's an eternity away, but for the first time I'm seriously considering giving him my vote in the primaries if he's still in a position to wreck stuff at that point..

 

[ErasureAcer]

Watch Bernie. Berniesanders.com

Apparently it's near full capacity.

 

[Macho Madness]