Support NeoGAF

[sc0la]

Yeah, I want to see him stumping in Iowa with Iowa farmers before I believe this is happening.

In Iowa: "I'll be the greatest Corn President that God has ever created. I have a lot of experience [growing] corn, I've been very successful at corn. I’ll bring back our corn from China, from Mexico, from Japan, from so many places . . . "

In California: "I'll be the greatest Rain President that God has ever created. I have a lot of experience [making it] rain, I've been very successful at rain. I’ll bring back our rain from China, from Mexico, from Japan, from so many places . . . "

 

[Plinko]

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-storms-phoenix-119989.html#ixzz3fdsLwbPg

cant make this up people. I cant believe this exist.

Trump is amazing in the sense that he's basically the lightning rod for all the racist, hard-right republicans. Basically everything they say in support of him amounts to, "He's a racist and says what we think about all the time."

I give him two full debates before everyone in the GOP starts realizing he's a huge disaster waiting to happen.

 

[gaugebozo]

I'm pretty sure these people:

Trump is amazing in the sense that he's basically the lightning rod for all the racist, hard-right republicans. Basically everything they say in support of him amounts to, "He's a racist and says what we think about all the time."

Aren't going to do this:

I give him two full debates before everyone in the GOP starts realizing he's a huge disaster waiting to happen.

It's what they want! Which means his support isn't going anywhere, just that the mainstream party is going to do whatever it can to drown him out. Don't forget Newt Gingrich's 2012 run.

 

[Plinko]

I'm pretty sure these people:
Aren't going to do this:

It's what they want! Which means his support isn't going anywhere, just that the mainstream party is going to do whatever it can to drown him out. Don't forget Newt Gingrich's 2012 run.

That's basically what I mean. When I say everyone in the GOP, I mean the establishment. They'll all turn on him.

 

[HylianTom]

One of the scariest things for the GOP has to be the idea that Trump is probably going to be a sore loser when he does eventually drop out. I can't see his ego letting him gracefully exit this contest, especially if the establishment has a role in his defeat.

I don't know what form his bitterness will take, but it should be fun to watch. And potentially damaging to their nominee's prospects.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The last time that the GOP went through a similar transition was in 1976 when an emerging coalition of southern and western small business conservatives began to wrest control of the party away from the more moderate Midwestern and Northeastern Wall Street wing. This insurgent wing took the nomination fight all the way to the Republican convention in Kansas City, backing Ronald Reagan against the incumbent Republican president, Gerald Ford. While this protracted fight likely cost them the White House, they were successful in not only taking over the party in 1976 but also electing Reagan to the presidency in 1980.
With Reagan’s election, the Republican Party became the dominant political party in the country for the following 25 years, amassing power at the state level and in Congress that it hadn’t achieved in decades. Only Bill Clinton was able to stop the Republican dominance during this period due to his superior political and governing skills.
By the beginning of Bush’s second term, the Republican Party had become a spent force that was no longer capable of driving the national debate. During the summer of 2005, a combination of the Iraq War, Hurricane Katrina and Terry Schiavo sent George W. Bush’s approval ratings into free-fall. For most of the remainder of his presidency, Bush’s ratings remained under 40 percent.
His dismal standing, combined with a Republican-controlled Congress plagued by sex scandals, corruption and out of control spending, has left the national Republican Party with net negative favorability ratings for over a decade. Over a decade.
While it is true that the Republicans now control both branches of Congress, as well as a significant majority of governorships and state legislatures around the country, it’s not enough to become the dominant political party in the country—not without the White House. Despite their successes in these recent off-year elections, Republicans have been unable to articulate a coherent national party agenda that appeals to a majority of Americans in the last two presidential elections—and they’ve lost the popular vote now in five of the last six presidential elections. At a time when the electorate’s makeup is changing and views on social issues are evolving, Republicans continue to espouse a backward vision for the country.
Second, the large Republican field, which is likely to number between 15 and 20 candidates, will make it very difficult for the party to have a serious and meaningful debate about the future. When the Republican Party enters the lengthy six-month joint appearance phase of the primary process with at least nine scheduled presidential debates, there will be a strong incentive for the candidates to “out conservative” their opponents in order to gain enough support to remain viable when the primaries and caucuses begin next February. The “brand builders” looking to capitalize on their notoriety after the presidential campaign with book deals, speaking tours and lucrative television contracts and the right wingers promoting their extreme positions on social issues are the candidates who are likely to stand out with memorable and clever sound bites in the cluttered field—just look at how Donald Trump has monopolized the GOP’s conversation over recent days.
Third, the Republican Party has continued to maintain a primary process that encourages an extended and protracted nomination fight. Under this system delegates are distributed proportionally for the first six weeks before moving to a “winner take all” allocation of delegates in the middle of March, which should finally begin a process to winnow the field. It took Romney until May 29, 2012, to secure enough delegates to lock down the nomination against an historically weak field. Just imagine what could happen next year if there are two, three or even four serious candidates headed into the spring?
Lastly, in the post-Citizens United world of unlimited amounts of unregulated money flowing into our political system, there is very little motivation for candidates to get out of the race as long as at least one of their wealthy backers continues to fund their campaigns. In a nomination fight where the system makes it very difficult to secure the necessary delegates for victory, ideologically based candidates have every incentive to stay in the race for as long as possible to promote their views.
In addition to the four challenges outlined, there are several other significant obstacles that Republicans must contend with in order to win the presidency next year. The first is the math. The current Electoral College map continues to clearly favor Democrats. In every one of the past six elections Democrats have carried 18 states plus the District of Columbia, totaling 242 of the 270 electoral votes necessary to win. During this same period, Republicans have carried 13 states totaling just 102 electoral votes.

Perhaps just as significantly, given the history of elections going back to 1980, Obama’s relative popularity continues to pose a challenge for Republicans intent on taking back the White House. Unlike his predecessors whose popularity varied greatly throughout their time in office, Obama’s all-important job approval ratings have remained quite durable and have stayed within a narrow band since the summer of 2009, with a high of 53 percent and a low of 40 percent. If there’s an expectation that the economy will continue to improve, it is even more likely that his approval ratings will hold in the upper end of this range. If that happens, the Democratic nominee would be in a very favorable position to hold the White House next year.
Working off of this thin margin, how and when the Republican nomination fight is settled is likely to determine their chances of winning the presidency next year. The longer it takes Republicans to unite behind a common agenda and a nominee, the more likely that Democrats will be able—for the first time since 1940—to hold the White House for 12 consecutive years.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/07/the-end-of-the-2016-election-is-closer-than-you-think-119947_Page2.html#ixzz3fgrsbE8c

 

[Plinko]

One of the scariest things for the GOP has to be the idea that Trump is probably going to be a sore loser when he does eventually drop out. I can't see his ego letting him gracefully exit this contest, especially if the establishment has a role in his defeat.

I don't know what form his bitterness will take, but it should be fun to watch. And potentially damaging to their nominee's prospects.

I see one of two things happening.

1) He runs as an independent. He has the funds for it and it seems most likely.

2) He doesn't run, but still goes on to carry water for the GOP nominee. He knows how much he benefits from GOP leadership.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Fucking what?

I've been trying to figure that one out all night. Maybe they're referring to the "right of the people to . . . petition the Government for a redress of grievances"? That's not what it means, but it's kind-of, sort-of on point.

Or maybe they buy into Justice Breyer's theory that the First Amendment ensures public control of government.

It's also possible they confused "Amendment" for "Commandment" and think Obama staying beyond his term would amount to an attempt to usurp God's authority. Who knows with these people?

Guess you don't remember the "Bush is going to attack Iran and cancel the 2008 election" shit.

I remember similar rumors about Clinton and Y2K. There's nothing new about this.

 

[benjipwns]

The last time that the GOP went through a similar transition was in 1976 when an emerging coalition of southern and western small business conservatives began to wrest control of the party away from the more moderate Midwestern and Northeastern Wall Street wing.

This happened in 1964. Nixon made sure to get Goldwater's endorsement before anything else.

While this protracted fight likely cost them the White House

Why would one think this? If Ford had flipped Ohio (Carter by 0.27%) and Wisconsin (Carter by 1.68%) he would have been re-elected. His debate blunders probably had more to do with it.

Ford's 1976 and Reagan's 1980 electorate have the exact same R/I/D and C/M/L breakdown.

With Reagan’s election, the Republican Party became the dominant political party in the country for the following 25 years, amassing power at the state level and in Congress that it hadn’t achieved in decades.

While it is true that the Republicans now control both branches of Congress, as well as a significant majority of governorships and state legislatures around the country, it’s not enough to become the dominant political party in the country—not without the White House.

oh

Lastly, in the post-Citizens United world of unlimited amounts of unregulated money flowing into our political system

What world again?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Huma Abedin is still married to Weiner? Dat Hillary influence.

 

[NeoXChaos]

This happened in 1964. Nixon made sure to get Goldwater's endorsement before anything else.


Why would one think this? If Ford had flipped Ohio (Carter by 0.27%) and Wisconsin (Carter by 1.68%) he would have been re-elected. His debate blunders probably had more to do with it.

Ford's 1976 and Reagan's 1980 electorate have the exact same R/I/D and C/M/L breakdown.



oh


What world again?

Do you think that if Ford won we still would have gotten Reagan and Bush 41 elected?

 

[Farmboy]

Speaking of third party runs, there's no chance Bernie runs as an independent after losing the Dem nomination battle, right? Has he commented on this? It's a pretty scary thought.

 

[Metaphoreus]

Speaking of third party runs, there's no chance Bernie runs as an independent after losing the Dem nomination battle, right? Has he commented on this? It's a pretty scary thought.

That'd be fun. I wonder if Sanders or Trump could win if each ran as a third-party candidate?

 

[pigeon]

Speaking of third party runs, there's no chance Bernie runs as an independent after losing the Dem nomination battle, right? Has he commented on this? It's a pretty scary thought.

Doubtful. Remember, Bernie is an independent. So why did he run for the Democratic nomination? It would actually have been easier to run as an independent in the first place. The answer is that the Democratic party agreed to give him a forum and try to tilt Democratic politics in his direction. I'm sure part of that agreement was that Bernie can't run as an independent after the primaries.

Obviously it's possible he would break the deal, but Bernie's not stupid. He has nothing to gain from running as an independent, he'd hurt the chances of getting government to move his way, and he'd be frozen out of the Democratic caucus.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Doubtful. Remember, Bernie is an independent. So why did he run for the Democratic nomination? It would actually have been easier to run as an independent in the first place. The answer is that the Democratic party agreed to give him a forum and try to tilt Democratic politics in his direction. I'm sure part of that agreement was that Bernie can't run as an independent after the primaries.

Obviously it's possible he would break the deal, but Bernie's not stupid. He has nothing to gain from running as an independent, he'd hurt the chances of getting government to move his way, and he'd be frozen out of the Democratic caucus.

not to mention the party would do everything in their power to defeat him in 2018 barring him retiring.

 

[theprodigy]

Speaking of third party runs, there's no chance Bernie runs as an independent after losing the Dem nomination battle, right? Has he commented on this? It's a pretty scary thought.

I seem to recall him saying specifically that he wouldn't do that?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Bernie isn't vindictive or a dumbass. He won't run an independent campaign. I doubt he'll endorse Hillary but at the least he'll make it clear he'll vote for her because the alternative is unacceptable.

 

[NeoXChaos]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/why-gop-should-worry-about-hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-n389946

2012 Election
Big Cities: 65% Obama - 34% Romney = 99%
Urban Suburbs: 57% Obama - 41% Romney = 98%
Exurbs: 40% Obama - 57% Romney = 97%
Rural Communities: 42% Obama - 55% Romney = 97%

Clinton vs. Bush 2015
Big Cities: 67% Clinton - 27% Bush = 94%
Urban Suburbs: 56% Clinton - 33% Bush = 89%
Exurbs: 37% Clinton - 51% Bush = 88%
Rural: 36% Clinton - 53% Bush = 89%

Clinton vs. Rubio 2015
Big Cities: 68% Clinton - 25% Rubio = 93%
Urban Suburbs: 54% Clinton - 37% Rubio = 91%
Exurbs: 35% Clinton - 51% Rubio = 86%
Rural: 40% Clinton - 51% Rubio = 91%

Clinton vs. Walker 2015
Big Cities: 67% Clinton - 21% Walker = 88%
Urban Suburbs: 60% Clinton - 30% Walker = 90%
Exurbs: 37% Clinton - 50% Walker = 87%
Rural: 39% Clinton - 47% Walker = 86%

 

[FiggyCal]

And now this exists: sandersisnotasocialist.com/

 

[Ecotic]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/why-gop-should-worry-about-hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-n389946

That's encouraging. I think there's a ~25% chance that Hillary wins big enough (something akin to Obama's 2008 victory) to carry the House and Senate. Ideally in that scenario Democrats should realize they'll lose big in 2018 either way and just decide collectively that they'll pass single payer healthcare and immigration reform and then lose in 2018 while Hillary secures the gains, but I think if Hillary carries the House and Senate it will be so narrowly that something like single payer would be impossible.

2018?*

Ah, yeah, my mind was linking it to the big 2014 losses.

 

[B-Dubs]

And now this exists: sandersisnotasocialist.com/

But he literally calls himself a socialist.

 

[NeoXChaos]

That's encouraging. I think there's a ~25% chance that Hillary wins big enough (something akin to Obama's 2008 victory) to carry the House and Senate. Ideally in that scenario Democrats should realize they'll lose big in 2014 either way and just decide collectively that they'll pass single payer healthcare and immigration reform and then lose in 2014 while Hillary secures the gains, but I think if Hillary carries the House and Senate it will be so narrowly that something like single payer would be impossible.

2018?*

 

[Mike M]

Does Trump have any campaign infrastructure at all? Or has it consisted thus far of just booking venues and making outlandish statements to constantly insinuate himself into the news cycle to save himself the trouble of outreach and organizational efforts?

 

[HylianTom]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/why-gop-should-worry-about-hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-n389946

A smaller segment of true up-for-grabs voters in the middle + media compartmentalization reinforcing entrenched sides + demographic changes..

Ice in my veins all over again.

...

Meanwhile, Lindsey continues to sound scarily sane at times:

Graham on Trump: He came in like a 'wrecking ball'
Sen. Lindsey Graham says Donald Trump is a "wrecking ball" who has put the Republican Party's future on the line with his controversial remarks about Mexican immigrants.

"I think he's hijacked the debate. I think he's a wrecking ball for the future of the Republican Party with the Hispanic community and we need to push back," Graham said in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash on "State of the Union" Sunday.

"This is a defining moment for the Republican Party. We need to reject this," he said

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/12/politics/donald-trump-lindsey-graham-wrecking-ball/index.html

 

[Wilsongt]

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/donald-trump-storms-phoenix-119989.html#ixzz3fdsLwbPg

cant make this up people. I cant believe this exist.

There is a mental illness diagnosis here somewhere. Woman clearly needs help.

 

[User 406]

But he literally calls himself a socialist.

So? The Republican party calls itself the party of small government and fiscal responsibility.

 

[Trouble]

Meanwhile, Lindsey continues to sound scarily sane at times:

http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/12/politics/donald-trump-lindsey-graham-wrecking-ball/index.html

This reasonable sounding Lindsey Graham confuses and scares me.

 

[ivysaur12]

And now this exists: sandersisnotasocialist.com/

Haaaaaaa

 

[Farmboy]

Does Trump have any campaign infrastructure at all?

Was wondering that myself. He has said in interviews that he has 'people' in Iowa and NH at least. Of course, these might be the same 'people' who he sent to Hawaii to investigate Obama's birth certificate.

I doubt Trump understands or is interested in the gruntwork needed to actually win primaries. But I do hope he invests enough to stay in the race for as long as possible.

 

[Ecotic]

There is a mental illness diagnosis here somewhere. Woman clearly needs help.

Politics and public policy is this one field where the public doesn't believe there is such a thing as expert knowledge or specialized knowledge.

People don't talk back to a pharmacist when he tells them it's lethal to combine these two drugs. They yield to expert knowledge from surgeons, engineers, accountants, lawyers, forensics, cardiologists, all range of specialists or people with certification. Not politics. People feel "the power to vote and pay taxes makes me an expert."

 

[ivysaur12]

Was wondering that myself. He has said in interviews that he has 'people' in Iowa and NH at least. Of course, these might be the same 'people' who he sent to Hawaii to investigate Obama's birth certificate.

I doubt Trump understands or is interested in the gruntwork needed to actually win primaries. But I do hope he invests enough to stay in the race for as long as possible.

So I was wondering that as well:

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st.../25/trump-hires-iowan-chuck-laudner/23988429/

Donald Trump has hired Iowa conservative Chuck Laudner to run his Iowa campaign if the New Yorker decides to run for president.

This will be a different world for Laudner, a 30-year operative who has a knack for running campaigns with almost no money and staff.

Last presidential election cycle, Laudner's candidate was a little-known former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania who at times struggled to attract an audience of five people. Working on a shoestring budget, Laudner used his own pickup truck to ferry Rick Santorum to Iowa's 99 counties, sometimes multiple times. Their endless campaigning paid off when Santorum caught fire right at the end and claimed enough support to win the 2012 Iowa caucuses by an eyelash.

Trump, because of his work in real estate development and his stardom on reality TV, is a billionaire with worldwide fame. He intends to self-fund his White House bid, if he runs.

http://wqad.com/2015/07/05/donald-trumps-campaign-around-iowa-includes-private-jet-tour/

Robert Costa of The Washington Post says the Trump campaign is offering tours of the jet to influential Iowa Republicans, hoping a little VIP treatment will translate into political support.

“Donald Trump is taking his private plane around Iowa and plans to do so more in the month of July and August. And he uses it as an office,” explained Costa.

“And Chuck Laudner (Trump’s chief strategist in Iowa) says people want to see the full Donald Trump. And (Trump’s camp) love these Iowa power brokers, the Republicans, that come on the plane, spend an hour with Trump. And it’s winning over some people.”

http://www.p2016.org/trump/trumporg.html

IOWA
Co-Chairs
Col. Brian Miller (Sioux City)
Tana Goertz (Des Moines)
Richard Thornton (Des Moines)
(announced July 9, 2015)

State Director Chuck Laudner
(reported by Breitbart on Feb. 24, 2015...advisor) On Jan. 24, 2015 the Des Moines Register reported that Laudner had been named camapign coordinator for Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund. Campaign manager on Sam Clovis' U.S. Senate primary campaign in 2014. Prominent supporter of Rick Santorum in 2011-12 Iowa Caucus campaign. Managed the anti-retention campaign (Iowa for Freedom) in 2010. Executive director of the Republican Party of Iowa, 2007-08. Chief of staff to Rep. Steve King, 2003-06, and senior policy advisor for several months at the end of 2006. In 2002 Laudner guided Steve King to victory in four-way special nominating convention in the 5th CD. Managed Bill Salier's 2002 primary campaign against Sen. Chuck Grassley. Worked on Steve Forbes' 2000 campaign.

Deputy State Director Ryan Keller
(announced April 7, 2015) Deputy Iowa Victory director and test manager, Sept.-Dec. 2014. Campaign manager on Zaun for Congress, Jan.-Sept. 2014. Executive director of Polk County Republicans, Nov. 2011-Jan. 2014. Iowa political and organizational director on Americans for Rick Perry, an independent 527 group, July-Aug. 2011; Iowa field staffer on the initial interation of Newt 2012. Staffer in the Republican Senate Minority Leader's Office in the Iowa Senate. Political and organizational director on Zaun for Congress, 2010. General manager at Heart of America, limited service hotel, 2002-08. Personal and small business banker at Wells Fargo, 1998-2001. Master's degree from Drake University. Bachelor's degree from Grand View College. A.A. from Indian Hills Community College. Lifelong Iowan. twitter
Brad Nagel
(announced April 7, 2015) COO at Providence International, LLC. Served as a U.S. Navy SEAL; retired in 2012. M.B.A. from the University of Iowa, 2014; B.S. in workforce education and development from Southern Illinois University. Originally from Cherokee, Iowa and now a resident of Coralville. twitter

Chris Hupke
(announced April 7, 2015) President of the SD Family Policy Council. Graduate of Iowa State University. twitter


NEW HAMPSHIRE
Headquarters: 340 Granite Street, Manchester
...office open May 1, 2015 (reported by the Union Leader's Dan Tuohy); opening event with Ivanka Trump on June 24, 2015
State Director Matt Ciepielowski
(reported Feb. 25, 2015) New Hampshire field director at Americans for Prosperity, April 2012-Feb. 2015. Youth for Ron Paul regional coordinator in Louisiana, Oct. 2011-March 2012. B.A. in political science, public relations from Quinnipiac University, 2011. Active in Young Americans for Liberty, including Connecticut state chair, June 2010-July 2011. twitter

Deputy State Director Andrew Georgevits
(announced March 31, 2015) Vice chairman of Concord City GOP. Sales rep. for Off the Vine from Jan. 2010; crew manager for Capital Productions from April 2004; owner of Andrew's Auto Detailing from Jan. 2004; marketing rep. for LaBelle Winery from Jan. 2004. Field director for Romney for President in Merrimack, Belknap, Straffort and Carroll Counties, May-Oct. 2012; production assistant for Romney for President, Nov. 2011-Jan. 2012. Senior account executive at ReaXion Energy Drink, March 2008-May 2010. Waiter at Outback Steakhouse, Jan. 2004-May 2007.

Coalitions Rep. Joshua Whitehouse
(announced March 31, 2015) Elected to the State House from Farmington in Nov. 2014. Administrative assistant at SAN Group, Inc. from July 2014. Studied at Saint Anselm College. "NH family since 1632." (In Jan. 2014 Whitehouse launched Draft Andrew Hemingway for NH Governor PAC. In Nov. 2011 Whitehouse was announced as part of Jon Huntsman's Gen-H New Hampshire leadership team). twitter

Field Zach Montanaro
(announced March 31, 2015) Field director on Marilinda Garcia's 2014 campaign in NH's 2nd CD. Bachelor's degree in political science from the Catholic University of America. twitter

New Hampshire Leadership Team
(announced May 21, 2015)
Belknap County
Chair- Josh Youssef
Vice-Chair- Ben Wilson

Carroll County
Chair- Nate Sullivan
Vice-Chair- Zac Mercauto

Cheshire County
Chair- Gregory Johnson

Coos County
Co-Chair- Jack Riendeau
Co-Chair-Sandra Riendeau

Grafton County
Chair- Raul Cervantes

Hillsborough County
Chair- Ellen Suprunowicz-Stepanek
Vice-Chair- Tony Mayfield

Merrimack County
Co-Chair- Rick Cibotti
Co-Chair- Debbie Cibotti

Rockingham County
Co-Chair- Lou Gargiulo
Co-Chair- Mary A. Gargiulo

Strafford County
Chair- Karen L. Warburton

Sullivan County
Co-Chair- Cynthia Howard
Co-Chair- Phil Howard
Additional Endorsement
State Rep. Stephen Stepanek (Hillsborough District 22-Amherst)
(announced June 26, 2015)

"Women for Trump"
(announced July 9, 2015) Over 160 women representing all 10 counties.


SOUTH CAROLINA
Co-Chair Ed McMullen
(reported as co-chair by The State's Andrew Shaun on March 10, 2015; reported as advisor by the Washington Post's Robert Costa on Feb. 25, 2015) President of McMullen Public Affairs LLC, based in Columbia. 25 year career in public policy, politics, and business. President of the South Carolina Policy Council, a conservative think tank through 2007. Experience also includes chairman of the S.C. Research Centers of Economic Excellence Review Board. Bachelor's degree in political science from Hampden-Sydney College.

Co-Chair John Russell
(reported as co-chair by The State's Andrew Shaun on March 10, 2015) Former state legislator; served in the SC House representing Spartanburg from 1983-87, then in the SC Senate until retiring in 2000. Assistant to the President Pro Tem of the U.S. Senate, Sen. Strom Thurmond in 1981; staff counsel to the U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee in 1981. J.D. from St. Mary's of Texas Law School, 1978; B.A. in history from the University of South Carolina, 1973. Son of former Gov. Donald S. Russell.
State Director Rep. James H. Merrill

(reported Feb. 25, 2015 as political advisor) Member of the House, elected in 2000; represents District 99-Berkeley and Charleston Counties;served as House Majority Leader from 2004-Dec. 2008. Owner of Geechie Communications since 1994. District administrator for U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford, 1994. Political director for the South Carolina Republican Party, 1992-98. Press secretary to U.S. Rep. Floyd Spence, 1989-92. B.A. (1989) and M.P.A. (1992) from University of South Carolina. Resident of Daniel Island. Originally from Florida.

Political Director Jeff Taillon
(announced May 6, 2015) Campaign manager on Henry McMaster for Lt. Governor, April 2014-Jan. 2015. Director of advance (Sept. 2012-April 2014) and press assistant (Jan. 2011-Sept. 2012) for Gov. Nikki Haley in the South Carolina Office of the Governor. General aide on Nikki Haley for Governor, Aug. 2009-Nov. 2010. B.S. in business and behavioral science from Clemson University, 2009. twitter
Field Director Gerri McDaniel

(announced May 6, 2015) Active role in the campaigns of several successful city and county political candidates. 7th CD field director on Newt Gingrich's 2012 campaign. Grassroots activist on the SC GOP 2010 Victory campaign. Co-founder of the Myrtle Beach Tea Party and is the organizer of the annual SC Tea Party Coalition Conventions. twitter

James Epley
Owner of Arbor GreenBuilders LLC on Hilton Head Island, SC. Regional director/chairman for Beaufort County on NEWT 2012. B.S. in economics and political science from Western Carolina University, 1990.
Gavin Smith
twitter

South Carolina Steering Committee
100-person steering committee announced on July 9, 2015

I sort of didn't expect him to have any infrastructure at this point, but it looks like he's been doing some work in New Hampshire. So.

EDIT: Oh.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/2016...g-a-new-hampshire-campaign-wholesale-20150707

July 7, 2015 MANCHESTER, New Hampshire—Maybe money can't buy happiness, but it sure can buy the framework of a presidential campaign.

Just ask Donald Trump. The real-estate developer-turned reality TV star has never formally run for political office before, yet has put together a New Hampshire operation using a pretty simple plan: purchasing one off the shelf, in this case by hiring top staff away from Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity.

Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, had until January run AFP's national voter-registration effort. Trump's New Hampshire state director, Matt Ciepielowski, moved over from a similar job at AFP. Even Trump's New Hampshire headquarters is located in the same brick office building as AFP's New Hampshire office in Manchester. (Asked if the group is supporting Trump, Greg Moore, the director of AFP New Hampshire, was unequivocal: "No. Absolutely not.")

Exactly how much Trump is paying for his campaign won't be known for sure until next week, when his first expenditure reports are due at the Federal Election Commission. But the number of people already on the payroll, as well as the trappings of the events, suggest a self-funded campaign with money to burn.

Many New Hampshire "house parties" for candidates, for example, are a logistical hassle for both guests and journalists, who often have to park at a considerable distance and walk the rest of the way. Not at a Trump house party. For Trump's recent gathering in neighboring Bedford, his campaign arranged for the use of a nearby church parking lot, and then rented large white vans (marked "TRUMP") to shuttle the 200 or so guests in air-conditioned comfort. When Trump arrives, it's in one of two matching black SUVs. When he walks, he is surrounded by a phalanx of a half dozen guys wearing dark suits and earpieces—more than the number of real agents typically surrounding Hillary Clinton, who, as the spouse of a former president, actually is entitled to Secret Service protection.

Behind the glitz, however, is the infrastructure of a presidential campaign: The seven full-time staff Trump's campaign says it has hired in New Hampshire—and nine in Iowa—gives Trump possibly the biggest operation in the Republican field, second only to Democratic front-runner Clinton.

"They have county chairmen in each county in New Hampshire," said Lou Gargiulo, a former member of the state legislature now serving as one of Team Trump's county cochairs. "There truly is a very serious Trump campaign in New Hampshire at this point in time."

In past elections, Gargiulo backed Mitt Romney and, before that, George W. Bush. He even attended Bush's first inauguration in 2001. "This is kind of a departure, in terms of supporting an insurgent," he said of his support for Trump. "He has not come out of the political class.... He's built a business empire. He's created a lot of jobs."

Poolside at that Bedford house party, Trump touched on both his business empire and the jobs he has created, in a 45-minute, free-form exploration about himself. "I know what sells." "I have among the greatest real estate assets in the world." "I'm really smart." "I'm going to make the economy so strong."

And, a thanks to all those in attendance: "This was a record-setting crowd for a house."

On that final point, at least, former New Hampshire Attorney General Tom Rath was ready to fact-check. "I don't think that's correct," he said. "Is it a pretty good crowd for a house party? Yes. Is it the biggest house party ever? I don't think so."

And while Rath said he had a "high regard" for Trump's efforts, he is not at all persuaded that the structure Trump is building can prove anything until the actual primary next year. "Can you convert that into a mature political organization that's capable of turning people out down the road?" he said.

To make that happen, even top-quality staff has to get cooperation from the candidate, Rath said. "Can they get the candidate to pay attention? That's a universal question with all candidates, but I suspect it may be more of a question with this candidate."

In his skepticism, Rath echoes much of the Republican establishment in New Hampshire, which, although largely not committed yet to particular candidates, seems to share the view that Trump is at best a nuisance and at worst a gift to Democrats, particularly of late with his comments about illegal immigrants and Mexico.

Fergus Cullen, a former state party chairman, is perhaps the most blunt. He called Trump's New Hampshire efforts "a Potemkin organization at best" but said he fully understands why political operatives like Lewandowski would make "a business decision" to make good money while they could.

"Corey's got four young kids. He's a got a mortgage. He's got a family to support. He saw an opportunity and took it," Cullen said.

Cullen said he knows when the ride ends: Before the deadline, Trump will eventually have to file a financial-disclosure statement, under penalty of perjury, that details his assets and liabilities. At that point later this year when the last extension is exhausted, Cullen predicted, Trump will declare that the other candidates have adopted his positions and therefore he has accomplished his goals, and he will drop out.

Lewandowski had earned $153,521 at Americans for Prosperity and its related groups in 2013, according to the nonprofit's last available filing with the IRS. He declined to say how much Trump is paying him now, but said it would be a matter of public record next week when the campaign files its first FEC report.

He also rejected Cullen's prediction. "Fergus Cullen is a washed-up hack who attempts to find ways to stay relevant by talking out both his mouth and his butt," Lewandowski said. "Mr. Trump will meet all FEC disclosure deadlines without seeking an extension."

And in the meantime, Trump will be spending plenty of time in New Hampshire, Lewandowski said, with the next visit planned for July 16.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/why-gop-should-worry-about-hillary-clintons-poll-numbers-n389946

2016 is probably going to be another snoozer election in terms of suspense over who's going to win. If Hillary's numbers are roughly the same as Obama's, then with demographic shifts over the last five years she'll probably win by 5 and a half points or so and swing North Carolina in addition to holding all of his other states.

Of course, the media will still hype it up as a dead heat all the way, and the Republicans will still delude themselves into thinking the polls have it wrong. Then they'll get caught flat-flooted and become so depressed they'll exile themselves to Bulgaria.

 

[NeoXChaos]

2016 is probably going to be another snoozer election in terms of suspense over who's going to win. If Hillary's numbers are roughly the same as Obama's, then with demographic shifts over the last five years she'll probably win by 5 and a half points or so and swing North Carolina in addition to holding all of his other states.

Of course, the media will still hype it up as a dead heat all the way, and the Republicans will still delude themselves into thinking the polls have it wrong. Then they'll get caught flat-flooted and become so depressed they'll exile themselves to Bulgaria.

We will too. Lets not forget our analysis from last years midterms. This will be my first rodeo with you all so this will be fun.

 

[HylianTom]

2016 is probably going to be another snoozer election in terms of suspense over who's going to win. If Hillary's numbers are roughly the same as Obama's, then with demographic shifts over the last five years she'll probably win by 5 and a half points or so and swing North Carolina in addition to holding all of his other states.

Of course, the media will still hype it up as a dead heat all the way, and the Republicans will still delude themselves into thinking the polls have it wrong. Then they'll get caught flat-flooted and become so depressed they'll exile themselves to Bulgaria.

I'm wondering if there could ever come a point where savvy donors know what's up and then decide to start diverting money and resources to senate races instead. Seems like a strategic shift of this sort could make an actual difference this cycle.

If she wins convincingly, get ready for a whole new round of "Is the GOP Locked Out?" articles, but this time much much more dramatic. Homegrown extremist activity will probably see an uptick as well, especially if those on the far, far right are convinced that they'll never get a conservative in the White House again.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm wondering if there could ever come a point where savvy donors know what's up and then decide to start diverting money and resources to senate races instead. Seems like a strategic shift of this sort could make an actual difference this cycle.

If she wins convincingly, get ready for a whole new round of "Is the GOP Locked Out?" articles, but this time much much more dramatic. Homegrown extremist activity will probably see an uptick as well, especially if those on the far, far right are convinced that they'll never get a conservative in the White House again.

Why should they be worried? they will likely have the house. Walker and Co. should he be the nominee and lose will still be around. They will still have most legislatures and Governorships with possible pickups in the governors mansions as well as 2018 possibly going south for Hillary's party.

Unless we equate winning the WH a prerequisite for being the dominant party in the United States. They will still have power far more than what George W Bush left them with in 2009. Bush left them for dead. Obama will leave them with some semblance of power.

 

[HylianTom]

Why should they be worried? they will likely have the house, Walker and Co. should he be the nominee and lose will still be around. They will still have most legislatures and possible pickups in the governors mansions as well as 2018 possibly going south for Hillary's party.

Unless we equate winning the WH a prerequisite for being the dominant party in the United States. They will still have power far more than what George W Bush left them with in 2009. Bush left them for dead. Obama will leave them with some semblance of power.

That's pretty much it. You or I won't equate it entirely, but a lot of folks seem to personalize/dramatize the importance of the Presidency, often out of proportion.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I've heard Steve Deace, a rightwing radio host who is an Iowa GOP insider, say Trump has hired some very impressive people and even plucked people from other campaigns. Dunno about other states. If he was smart he'd be building an operation in South Carolina.

 

[Third Strike]

Why should they be worried? they will likely have the house. Walker and Co. should he be the nominee and lose will still be around. They will still have most legislatures and Governorships with possible pickups in the governors mansions as well as 2018 possibly going south for Hillary's party.

Unless we equate winning the WH a prerequisite for being the dominant party in the United States. They will still have power far more than what George W Bush left them with in 2009. Bush left them for dead. Obama will leave them with some semblance of power.

They should be concerned. For one, the courts have been cracking down on the unfair gerrymandering practices going on in red and purple states. There is also the possibility of some of these states allowing non-partisan commissions to draw up maps for 2020. All of that could be a major blow to the GOP House, and allow Dems the chance of retaking it, at least during the presidential elections. Let's not forget demographics in this country is going to kick the GOP in the ass, unless they push away the influence of the Tea Party, which isn't happening soon. Finally, SCOTUS nominations from a Dem White House could invalidate many GOP policies and laws that are challenged in court.

A Dem White House for the next eight years, and hell, maybe even twelve, could doom the GOP for an entire generation, unless they can somehow get the White House next year, or at the very least, 2020. They could be in a worst situation than the Democrats were, from 1968 to 1992.

 

[User 250141]

Politics and public policy is this one field where the public doesn't believe there is such a thing as expert knowledge or specialized knowledge.

People don't talk back to a pharmacist when he tells them it's lethal to combine these two drugs. They yield to expert knowledge from surgeons, engineers, accountants, lawyers, forensics, cardiologists, all range of specialists or people with certification. Not politics. People feel "the power to vote and pay taxes makes me an expert."

No, people don't yield to expert knowledge on anything.

A third of the public thinks it can't eat gluten.

They don't vaccinate their children.

Everyone thinks they're an expert at everything now because we're told from birth that we're "special" and "perfect just the way you are." Why do we need advice from anyone else?

 

[NeoXChaos]

They should be concerned. For one, the courts have been cracking down on the unfair gerrymandering practices going on in red and purple states. There is also the possibility of some of these states allowing non-partisan commissions to draw up maps for 2020. All of that could be a major blow to the GOP House, and allow Dems the chance of retaking it, at least during the presidential elections. Let's not forget demographics in this country is going to kick the GOP in the ass, unless they push away the influence of the Tea Party, which isn't happening soon. Finally, SCOTUS nominations from a Dem White House could invalidate many GOP policies and laws that are challenged in court.

A Dem White House for the next eight years, and hell, maybe even twelve, could doom the GOP for an entire generation, unless they can somehow get the White House next year, or at the very least, 2020. They could be in a worst situation than the Democrats were, from 1968 to 1992.

Some states will but not all will allow ballot initiatives by their citizens and a lot are up to state legislatures with many controlled by the Republicans. Are we talking a potential liberal court overturning Legislatures power to redistrict on a state and congressional level? Or a D House and Senate passing a bill eliminating Legislature power in favor of nonpartisan redistricting?

 

[Coriolanus]

And now this exists: sandersisnotasocialist.com/

...why... would they use bella ciao as the background song?

 

[ivysaur12]

As long as the Dems control even one house in a state, they'd be in a much better position for redistricting.

 

[Aaron Strife]

If fair map initiatives could pass in Ohio and Michigan, then Democrats would just need to hold onto the governor's mansions in Virginia (2017 or 2021 elections, either way) and Pennsylvania to force compromise maps in those states and that would take care of some of the more odious gerrymanders. Florida's initiative is fairly toothless but the state Supreme Court seems to have our back there.

Then there's North Carolina... That's not going away any time soon.

I mean the main thing we need to hope for is Hillary to win two terms. And then for Kamala Harris to win one after that.

Also Kerry 4 prez

VIENNA (AP) — Negotiators at the Iran nuclear talks plan to announce Monday that they've reached a historic deal capping nearly a decade of diplomacy that would curb the country's atomic program in return for sanctions relief, two diplomats told The Associated Press on Sunday.

The envoys said a provisional agreement may be reached even earlier — by late Sunday. But they cautioned that final details of the pact were still being worked out. Once it is complete, a formal, final agreement would be open to review by officials in the capitals of Iran and the six world powers at the talks, they said.

 

[Farmboy]

Great reads, thanks ivysaur!

I've heard Steve Deace, a rightwing radio host who is an Iowa GOP insider, say Trump has hired some very impressive people and even plucked people from other campaigns. Dunno about other states. If he was smart he'd be building an operation in South Carolina.

Oh man. If Trump really does have the best Iowa operation, could he win the state? Ground game tends to make a big difference in caucus states, right?

Imagine Trump spending the eight 24 hour news cycles between Iowa and New Hampshire as the only candidate who has won a caucus/primary. The GOP meltdowns would be glorious.

I fear he'll have fizzled out (or even dropped out) before then, but a guy can dream.

 

[RustyNails]

If fair map initiatives could pass in Ohio and Michigan, then Democrats would just need to hold onto the governor's mansions in Virginia (2017 or 2021 elections, either way) and Pennsylvania to force compromise maps in those states and that would take care of some of the more odious gerrymanders. Florida's initiative is fairly toothless but the state Supreme Court seems to have our back there.

Then there's North Carolina... That's not going away any time soon.

I mean the main thing we need to hope for is Hillary to win two terms. And then for Kamala Harris to win one after that.

Also Kerry 4 prez

Iran Deal Thread

 

[NeoXChaos]

As long as the Dems control even one house in a state, they'd be in a much better position for redistricting.

It just bothers me that they had control over a lot of legislatures and governorships in places like Wyoming, Mississippi and Kansas(extreme rarity) etc and did nothing on it pre-2011 between 2007-2011. Now all of a sudden that they want to do this when they are now out of power. The Republicans beat them to it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_state_legislatures%27_partisan_trend

 

[Third Strike]

Some states will but not all will allow ballot initiatives by their citizens and a lot are up to state legislatures with many controlled by the Republicans. Are we talking a potential liberal court overturning Legislatures power to redistrict on a state and congressional level? Or a D House and Senate passing a bill eliminating Legislature power in favor of nonpartisan redistricting?

More on the former, though the latter could help in some states. A state like NC would benefit greatly from the SCOTUS ruling that redistricting based on partisan bias is just as bad as redistricting based on race. It's a slow process, but a solid hold on the White House for the next fifteen years could change things on the congressional level.

 

[Macho Madness]

Donald Trump unfiltered: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...swear-and-talk-politics-on-his-private-plane/

 

[B-Dubs]

I've heard Steve Deace, a rightwing radio host who is an Iowa GOP insider, say Trump has hired some very impressive people and even plucked people from other campaigns. Dunno about other states. If he was smart he'd be building an operation in South Carolina.

Holy shit, he might actually have a plan. This is gonna be good.

 

[ivysaur12]

If fair map initiatives could pass in Ohio and Michigan, then Democrats would just need to hold onto the governor's mansions in Virginia (2017 or 2021 elections, either way) and Pennsylvania to force compromise maps in those states and that would take care of some of the more odious gerrymanders. Florida's initiative is fairly toothless but the state Supreme Court seems to have our back there.

Then there's North Carolina... That's not going away any time soon.

I mean the main thing we need to hope for is Hillary to win two terms. And then for Kamala Harris to win one after that.

Also Kerry 4 prez

Yup, the governor cannot veto the maps in North Carolina. Fun!

This only happens in North Carolina and Connecticut.