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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If anybody wants to see the GOP's grand plan for education, look no further than Kansas:

http://www2.ljworld.com/news/2015/jul/12/more-kansas-teachers-leaving-state-retiring/

WICHITA — Classroom spending cuts, uncertain school financing, low pay and eroding tenure protections all play into a hostile climate in Kansas that teachers and school administrators say is spurring a surge of teacher departures and retirements.

At least 3,720 Kansas teachers have left the state, retired or taken jobs outside of education after this past school year, a huge jump from the 2,150 who did so just a couple of years ago, according to a newly released data by Kansas State Department of Education.

The teacher exodus comes as a panel of district judges declared last month that key parts of a new state law for funding public schools violate the state constitution. The panel ordered an immediate increase in funds, but the Kansas Supreme Court later stayed that order pending its review.

But it is not just the financing problems fueling a perception education in Kansas is under attack. The GOP-dominated Legislature also tried to limit teachers' bargaining power and sought unsuccessfully to pass a law that would allow teachers to be criminally prosecuted for presenting material deemed harmful to minors.

Sad state of affairs, and Michigan seems to be heading in this direction as well.
 

HawkeyeIC

Member
I've heard Steve Deace, a rightwing radio host who is an Iowa GOP insider, say Trump has hired some very impressive people and even plucked people from other campaigns. Dunno about other states. If he was smart he'd be building an operation in South Carolina.

Deace is a joke in Iowa.
 

benjipwns

Banned
They should be concerned. For one, the courts have been cracking down on the unfair gerrymandering practices going on in red and purple states. There is also the possibility of some of these states allowing non-partisan commissions to draw up maps for 2020. All of that could be a major blow to the GOP House, and allow Dems the chance of retaking it
Redrawing district lines would only yield 5-7 seats by most analysis I've seen.

Especially because of the mandate for majority-minority districts.

[The GOP] could be in a worst situation than the Democrats were, from 1968 to 1992.
Controlling both Houses of Congress for all but six years of the Senate? And having supermajority sized and filibuster proof majorities in the House and Senate respectively? Also dominating state legislatures like mad all over the country, especially the South?

Yeah, I could see both parties being in a worse situation than that really.

Politics and public policy is this one field where the public doesn't believe there is such a thing as expert knowledge or specialized knowledge.

People don't talk back to a pharmacist when he tells them it's lethal to combine these two drugs. They yield to expert knowledge from surgeons, engineers, accountants, lawyers, forensics, cardiologists, all range of specialists or people with certification. Not politics. People feel "the power to vote and pay taxes makes me an expert."
1. What certifications would make one a "politics expert" like a surgeon, accountant or lawyer? (WARNING: Your answer may make me a certified expert, so be careful.)
b. Democracy is supposed to be rule by a plurality of participating voters, if the American people want to grind street urchins into dog food because Bernie Sanders is a sell out instead of a socialist and hasn't once mentioned anything about free chicken at his restaurants, then it's their Third Amendment right. God Bless Democracy. And God Bless America.

Thank you, and remember to vote on November 9th, 2016!
 

benjipwns

Banned
Do you think that if Ford won we still would have gotten Reagan and Bush 41 elected?
That's an interesting hypothetical, Reagan probably could still win in 1980 regardless, and he was a lock for a nomination. The question is if Kennedy (who ran an infamously bad and poorly planned insurgency against Carter btw) would be the likely Democratic nominee (I would assume so in most realities) and whether his campaign would resemble Mondale's in tone/rhetoric/platform which I would imagine it would look closer to than Carter's.

Now, that doesn't mean I'd see a 1984 style landslide in a Reagan/Kennedy 1980 matchup with a President Ford in office. Only that similar factors would be in play, that was also still Reagan Prime. The real question is if John Anderson would still run and if he'd suck up more votes or less. Because I could see him not running and all his votes going to Kennedy (or at least offsetting any votes that would switch between the two parties) and that alone would reduce Reagan's 1980 win from 51-41 to 51-47.

Reagan only winning by 3-4 points while Kennedy picks up states like Massachusetts (Reagan won it with 41.9-41.8! Anderson took 15.2%), New York, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont, Delaware, Maine, etc. would make a Reagan victory not look anything like the landslide it did and still be fairly plausible in my horrible opinion.

PoliSci doctorate.
I should write a dissertation just to spite you!
 

Chichikov

Member
That's an interesting hypothetical, Reagan probably could still win in 1980 regardless, and he was a lock for a nomination. The question is if Kennedy (who ran an infamously bad and poorly planned insurgency against Carter btw) would be the likely Democratic nominee (I would assume so in most realities) and whether his campaign would resemble Mondale's in tone/rhetoric/platform which I would imagine it would look closer to than Carter's.

Now, that doesn't mean I'd see a 1984 style landslide in a Reagan/Kennedy 1980 matchup with a President Ford in office. Only that similar factors would be in play, that was also still Reagan Prime. The real question is if John Anderson would still run and if he'd suck up more votes or less. Because I could see him not running and all his votes going to Kennedy (or at least offsetting any votes that would switch between the two parties) and that alone would reduce Reagan's 1980 win from 51-41 to 51-47.

Reagan only winning by 3-4 points while Kennedy picks up states like Massachusetts (Reagan won it with 41.9-41.8! Anderson took 15.2%), New York, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Vermont, Delaware, Maine, etc. would make a Reagan victory not look anything like the landslide it did and still be fairly plausible in my horrible opinion.
Ford would've ate the oil crisis and the Iranian hostages, the GOP would've been in a bad bad situation for the 1980 election.
I really don't think Reagan schtick would've worked on the heels of a Republican president.
 

Ecotic

Member
1. What certifications would make one a "politics expert" like a surgeon, accountant or lawyer? (WARNING: Your answer may make me a certified expert, so be careful.)
b. Democracy is supposed to be rule by a plurality of participating voters, if the American people want to grind street urchins into dog food because Bernie Sanders is a sell out instead of a socialist and hasn't once mentioned anything about free chicken at his restaurants, then it's their Third Amendment right. God Bless Democracy. And God Bless America.

Thank you, and remember to vote on November 9th, 2016!

Masters in Public Administration, Bachelors in political science/international relations, Master of Studies in Law, a BBA, BA, or MBA in economics.

And election day is November 8th, good trap though! Almost didn't notice it.
 
What language do you work in?

Brazilian portuguese. In my spec interest was so grotesquely low that the best uni in the state had to accrue students for three years to manage to form a class, and it still barely happened. There's, like, 5 people amidst 30 that actually speak english, and almost all of the teachers don't. Then you factor that it is an International law spec.

#thirdworldproblems
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
@realDonaldTrump
I hear that sleepy eyes @chucktodd will be fired like a dog from ratings starved Meet The Press? I can't imagine what is taking so long!

going after chuck god a step too far?


cool. I need to learn portuguese, I already know spanish.

"Fired like a dog?" How in the world does that make any sense? Is there some sort of flood of dogs being released from their jobs that I'm not aware of?
 

Trouble

Banned
"Fired like a dog?" How in the world does that make any sense? Is there some sort of flood of dogs being released from their jobs that I'm not aware of?

It's the dog doing the firing.

PDAUcSF.jpg
 
Iran and Cuba in the same week?

Obama really is the modern Reagan

Cuba still open to re-establish diplomatic relations with the U.S, despite Rupublican attempts to halt the process. Cuba is on track to re-open its embassy in Washington by July 20, in accordance with a previous agreement made with the U.S. government, Cuban officials confirmed this weekend. “We are about to complete the first phase, which will close on July 20, when relations between Cuba and the US will be officially established,” Josephina Vidal, Cuban Foreign Ministry's Director for the United States, told the press Saturday. On that day, “we will do the opening ceremony of our embassy in Washington,” added Vidal upon exiting a morning Parliamentary session.

This content was originally published by teleSUR at the following address:
http://www.telesurtv.net/english/ne...Re-Open-US-Embassy-in-July-20150712-0007.html. If you intend to use it, please cite the source and provide a link to the original article. www.teleSURtv.net/english
 

Chichikov

Member
"Death to capitalism" makes me cringe.
And I'm not sure that calling "down with Sanders" is the most productive course of action at this point nor am I infatuated with Leninism as the author seems to be.
Still, the site is nothing but truth.
Strong musical choice too.
News on gaming side hit me hard today
Cant bring myself to cheerlead jindal anymore
I nearly cringed myself to death reading that thread.
 
Idk how to communicate it to people that might not be into nintendo or grew up on their games like i did, but at the risk of inducing further cringe, i reacted in similar fashion to sky. It feels like i lost another grandpa
Anyway sorry for derailing the thread
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Would you guys think that it would be preferable for the Dems to lose the White House in 2016 if that meant they could retake the house in 2020 (or 2018)?
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Would you guys think that it would be preferable for the Dems to lose the White House in 2016 if that meant they could retake the house in 2020 (or 2018)?

Nope.

That would mean the replacement of, at minimum, 2 Supreme Court Justices with conservative candidates. That would be a disaster.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Nope.

That would mean the replacement of, at minimum, 2 Supreme Court Justices with conservative candidates. That would be a disaster.
Yup. I'm imagining a similar scenario in which many progressive pieces of legislation are struck-down over the next two or three decades.

I'd rather have the courts than the House. We get a shot at the House, in theory, every two years. It's not very often (in this era) that we get a shot at shifting SCOTUS. We missed this opportunity back in 2000 and were lucky to maintain roughly status quo over the following 8 years. For this election, given how old two of the liberal justices are, the stakes are quite a bit higher.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Would you guys think that it would be preferable for the Dems to lose the White House in 2016 if that meant they could retake the house in 2020 (or 2018)?

no. What is the point of having the house when a Republican president is just going to veto any type of progressive legislation that comes to his desk. You ideally in this partisan era want all 3 for your party. There is also no guarantee the Dems would get the house in such a scenario. In 2018 you are still under the 2010 gerrymandered maps.
 
I think this is rather important to point out. Clinton as always been pretty left on economics

In 2008, both Clinton and Obama spent a lot of time debating a single fateful vote she cast in 2002 in favor of George W. Bush's invasion of Iraq. But if you look at all the votes that were cast during the four years they served together in the Senate, it was Clinton who amassed the more liberal record.

-In the 109th Senate, Obama was the 17th most liberal member (between Chuck Schumer and Tom Harkin), while Clinton was the 13th most liberal member.
In the 110th Senate, Obama was the 18th most liberal member (again one tick to the left of Schumer) while Clinton was again 13th most liberal.
-Another way of looking at it is that of the two Democratic senators from New York, Clinton was the more liberal. Of the two Democratic senators from Illinois, Obama was the more conservative.
-Of course, one could say that these kind of crude vote-agglomeration methods miss a lot of what matters. A single vote on Iraq was more consequential than dozens of votes on budget amendments. But this is the point. Clinton's reputation as a centrist Democrat comes largely from her foreign policy. On the economic issues that dominate congressional votes by volume, she's liberal.

On economics, Clinton ran left in 2008

In keeping with her voting record, Clinton ran to Obama's left on economic issues in the 2008 primaries. This manifested itself most clearly on the subject of health care, where Clinton was willing to include a politically unpopular individual mandate to buy health insurance as part of a program for universal coverage. Obama was not willing to go so far, and came in for substantial criticism from liberals for it. Less famously, Clinton proposed a Cabinet-level poverty czar position — an idea that might make a comeback in 2016.

The ideological divide here was not large, but it was reflected in patterns of support for the two candidates. Clinton secured more labor union backing than Obama, and Obama did better than Clinton at gaining primary votes from self-identified independents.

Much of the primary debate ended up focusing on foreign policy, where Clinton was (and continues to be) more hawkish than Obama. But there's nothing new about her running left on economics.

Hillary led the left wing of the Clinton administration

Reaching further back in time, there is considerable evidence that Hillary was to the left of her husband on economics in the 1990s. As Peter Beinart recounts, she was the senior adviser through whom liberals generally tried to win over the White House.

Carl Bernstein reports that in 1993, Hillary opposed the decision to prioritize deficit reduction, saying, "You didn’t get elected to do Wall Street economics."
Sally Bedell Smith reports that in 1995, Hillary and Robert Reich tried (and failed) to get Bill to make a big stink about CEO pay.
George Stephanopoulos, who was in a position to know, referred to Hillary as "the most powerful liberal in the White House."
A then-obscure law professor named Elizabeth Warren reached out to Hillary and helped convince her to persuade her husband to veto a bank-friendly bankruptcy bill at the very end of the Clinton administration.
Some of this, especially the parts about Clinton being out of step with the Wall Street wing of the party, has been obscured by subsequent events. Clinton, for example, flip-flopped on the bankruptcy issue in 2005.


But one should be cautious about reading too much into a New York politician's friendliness to Wall Street — especially a politician with such tenuous ties to New York. As a senator from Illinois, Obama was an ally of the Illinois coal industry. Elizabeth Warren is a dogmatic liberal on virtually every issue, but also a loyal ally of the medical device industry, which happens to be substantially based in the Boston area. Things can change over time, but it seems likely that First Lady Hillary Clinton rather than Fake New Yorker Hillary Clinton is the better guide to her views on Wall Street.

Basically what I think a lot of the "corporatist" stuff comes from is people who's political life started post 9-11 when Clinton was a NY Senator. Rather than the majority of her political life we're she was a proto-warren.

Her current self is more pure than the fake pro-wall street facade she put on to get elected in NY
 

Mike M

Nick N
What, he copyrighted "making America great again?"

FE: OH MY GOD

This is going to be the greatest primary season ever.

OF ALL TIME!
He can't possibly keep this up, right? Right? Those that burn brightest burn fastest, and right now he's so bright I can't hardly look at him.

He's going to stay in until the debates start, but how is he going to maintain this output of bridge burning and outrageous statements until February? I can't even fathom.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I think this is rather important to point out. Clinton as always been pretty left on economics



Basically what I think a lot of the "corporatist" stuff comes from is people who's political life started post 9-11 when Clinton was a NY Senator. Rather than the majority of her political life we're she was a proto-warren.

Her current self is more pure than the fake pro-wall street facade she put on to get elected in NY
I was happy to see this this morning:
eQPJCAX.png

At the very least her campaign is paying lip service to the actual stats. We'll see how much that translates into actual policy attempts.
 

gaugebozo

Member
Those elites. Always with the mobile devices and sunglasses that regular people don't use! And don't get me started on their love of fast food. She didn't even tip!

Scott Walker hugs at McDonalds, like a real American.
 
The coverage of Walker today seems to be focusing on him killing Unions and winning a recall election. Sounds like I should read up on this stuff.

Actual achievements, not a bunch of huff and puff like Cruz/Rubio/Paul/Carson/etc who haven't done anything. Any media discussion of Walker is going to bring up his record, whereas a discussion of the senators boils down to "he voted against or opposes all this stuff Obama still got accomplished." If I was a conservative I'd be far more interested in Walker due to this.

We can laugh all we want but Walker can say he crushed unions, cut taxes, passed voter ID laws, created jobs (4.4 unemployment, get over it), challenged domestic partner statuses, de-funded Planned Parenthood, and defeated democrats in a blue state. Only Rick Perry has a record that comes close, but he's marred by immigration whereas Walker isn't.

Walker is really good at what he does.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Actual achievements, not a bunch of huff and puff like Cruz/Rubio/Paul/Carson/etc who haven't done anything. Any media discussion of Walker is going to bring up his record, whereas a discussion of the senators boils down to "he voted against or opposes all this stuff Obama still got accomplished." If I was a conservative I'd be far more interested in Walker due to this.

We can laugh all we want but Walker can say he crushed unions, cut taxes, passed voter ID laws, created jobs (4.4 unemployment, get over it), challenged domestic partner statuses, de-funded Planned Parenthood, and defeated democrats in a blue state. Only Rick Perry has a record that comes close, but he's marred by immigration whereas Walker isn't.

Walker is really good at what he does.

Which is absolutely nothing that attracts democrats or independent voters. Seriously--look at everything you listed. How in the world would any of those bring in independent voters?
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Which is absolutely nothing that attracts democrats or independent voters. Seriously--look at everything you listed. How in the world would any of those bring in independent voters?

define independent. Are we talking "left leaning", "right leaning" or "true swing voter" independent? I could see a high turnout with Walker among right leaning voters in Fall 2016. They finally get a guy that is a "true conservative" and not settle on a moderate in Bush 3 like their last nominees going back to Bush 1.
 
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