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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Diablos

Member
If nothing else, the takeaway of 2010 for Dems shpuld be that you don't earn any points from teabaggers for moderating your positions. When you go in, you go all the way, and HARD.
Word. These people can't be reasoned with, so there's no reason to roll over for them. They're manchildren.

Bush and Rubio are from the same state, not going to happen.
Rubio could buy a house in Texas or something and claim it as his primary residence. Easy peasy.

I can't see Bush winning over the base. it's going to be Walker/Rubio.
The base will back him. Just like they'd never back Romney but all of the sudden did.
 

benjipwns

Banned
As a side note, remember when Olbermann wasn't entirely and openly insane? He almost seems like a sane person in these clips.

Though I never watched his ESPN show so I don't know if he got out of his funk. I assumed one of his Current TV episodes was going to end with his on-air suicide.

Still more engaging and worthwhile than Jennifer Granholm's show!

God, Current TV was terrible.

Oh god, there's an even worse lower level where some of Current TV's people's shows fled to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Speech_TV

Of course Thom Hartmann is involved. Of course.
 
It was way back in May but he wasn't exactly crushing the competition: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_AZ_50515.pdf
His general election numbers aren't exactly inspiring, either. I hope he loses so that he and Obama will be leaving politics at the same time (well, Obama a couple of weeks later, but still).

Rubio could buy a house in Texas or something and claim it as his primary residence. Easy peasy.
I feel like the only reason Cheney got away with it was because he was an elected official from Wyoming. Rubio is a sitting senator. As benji pointed out, Bush doing it wouldn't look as bad since he's not an office-holder but the dude's claim to fame is his tenure as Florida governor. For either of them to change residencies would open themselves up to easy attacks from the Democrats.

If Bush is the nominee I think he picks Kasich.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Cheney also sold his house in Texas and changed all his stuff back to Wyoming. He had only moved there in 1995 when he started at Halliburton so it's not like he had been living there for ages.

Bush/Lieberman probably wouldn't have been a very different Presidency though.
 

Trouble

Banned
2008 was lost definitively when Johm McCain, after two years of touting his experience, calm and wise decision making, etc. spent two weeks going OMG WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE, CANCEL THE DEBATES, WE HAVE TO GO BACK TO WASHINGTON, ME AND OBAMA HAVE TO SIT IN ON EVERY SINGLE MEETING, WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHINGGGGGG NO DEBATES ITS A CRISISSSSSSS OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGG LET ME FLY AIR FORCE ONE I CAN CRASH IT QUICKER THAN WALL STREET* while Obama kept his cool and didn't shove himself into the story more than a Senator with less than four years experience should.

*exact quote

Benji pls

The campaign was lost the moment he picked Palin as his running mate and everyone knew it.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Let's agree to agree that I'm right about the state being illegitimate and we're both right about McCain's deathknells. Palin probably saved him as many conservative votes as others he lost because of her.

June 26th: Obama 47 - McCain 40
July 27th: Obama 47 - McCain 42
August 29th: Obama 48 - McCain 44 (The day Sarah Palin is announced, her convention speech is 9/3...)
September 9th: McCain 48 - Obama 46 (the high point of McCain's ever)
September 17th: McCain 46 - Obama 46 (Two days after Lehman)
September 24th: Obama 48 - McCain 44 (Day Sarah Palin is interviewed by Katie Couric; Also same day McCain announces he is suspending his campaign.)
October 1st: Obama 49 - McCain 44 (VP debate Oct 2nd)
October 7th: Obama 50 - McCain 44
October 14th: Obama 50 - McCain 42
 

benjipwns

Banned
I actually didn't know those were the same day until I just looked that up.

Writing my made for TV movie script about Johm McCain getting his chance to change just one day in his life.
 

Trouble

Banned
McCain's highest poll ever was because of the post-convention bump.

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I can't find it, but I remember a Fox commentator lamenting that it was all over that night. Everyone who knew anything about Palin knew it would be a disaster. It just took the rest of the country a bit to catch up, because no one knew who the hell she was.

Edit: A bit being the amount of time before she was interviewed by Katie Couric.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
There is no way the man does not regret picking her. He is going to live that pick down for the rest of his life. Even some of his own staff didnt vote for him because of her. Steve Schmidt was in charge of picking her lol. Oh the irony.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Look at the line shoot up starting around the Palin announcement. And her speech was at the convention so you can't separate the two. She had given strong conservatives a reason to energetically back McCain temporarily.

She made McCain look competitive for almost another entire month!

Obama's numbers were initially suppressed because of Hillary. McCain's % back to 2007 is practically a straight line around 42 points except for Sarah-mania.
 
I'd point out national polls don't tell the entire story. The were close at times but state polls suggested an Obama victory for quite awhile. Obama was up in nearly every swing state, McCain was pulling out of states (iirc he pulled out of Michigan and PA relatively late), etc.

I wonder what the anti polling spin will be in 2016; I might come up with one before the GOP does. I'd imagine they'll run with "minorities won't vote as heavily since Obama isn't on the ticket" but that seems lazy. Jennifer Rubin and some other conservatives have expertly convinced themselves that Hillary is unelectable so surely they'll have an explanation for why Hillary leading Walker Rubio by 4 in October 2016 doesn't mean anything.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I might come up with one before the GOP does. I'd imagine they'll run with "minorities won't vote as heavily since Obama isn't on the ticket" but that seems lazy.
Typical that you'd think of that then...

Also, they've run with that since 2009. There were even some using a theory that minorities were so disappointed in Obama they wouldn't vote for him a second time.
 

benjipwns

Banned
He's chosen not to run for re-election to the Senate. Florida has one of those laws and he said he wasn't going to bother even if his campaign is going nowhere. Paul's going to bail out on the Presidential race before whatever the deadline is.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Hillary Clinton is Doomed

Hillary Clinton is losing to a generic Republican presidential candidate in six battleground states that will be critical in determining the outcome of the 2016 election, according to a new poll from the GOP firm Vox Populi.

The survey, which was conducted on behalf of the conservative super-PAC American Crossroads, found a Republican presidential candidate taking 50 percent support, over Clinton at 42 percent among voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia.

The same survey from May showed a generic Republican leading Clinton by 10 points, 51 to 41.

The latest poll found Clinton with only 38 percent saying they have a positive view of her, versus 53 percent who said they view her negatively.

In addition, a majority of voters polled in those states, 56 percent, say they don’t trust Clinton, while 58 percent said she would “do or say anything” to get elected.

According to the survey, Vice President Biden would present a formidable challenge to Clinton in the Democratic primary. He’s within 10 points of Clinton among Democrats surveyed, with the former secretary of State taking 41 percent, compared to 31 percent for Biden.

At least this article isn't pretending that the 2016 race is in a dead heat.
 

benjipwns

Banned
The real problem is always finding that Generic Republican/Democrat that wins all these polls. I don't know why they just don't run that guy.
 
As a side note, remember when Olbermann wasn't entirely and openly insane? He almost seems like a sane person in these clips.

Though I never watched his ESPN show so I don't know if he got out of his funk. I assumed one of his Current TV episodes was going to end with his on-air suicide.

Still more engaging and worthwhile than Jennifer Granholm's show!

God, Current TV was terrible.

Oh god, there's an even worse lower level where some of Current TV's people's shows fled to: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_Speech_TV

Of course Thom Hartmann is involved. Of course.
Still the best Olbermann impression on live TV ever.

Also lay off Thom Hartmann! He may be a little kooky with the alternative medicine stuff but he's actually really smart with economy and politics.
 

benjipwns

Banned
https://www.commentarymagazine.com/2015/07/15/iran-nuclear-deal-not-about-nukes/
If you think the United States just struck a poor nuclear deal with Iran, you’re right; but if that’s your key takeaway, you’re missing the point. Iran’s nuclear program was last on the list of the Obama administration’s priorities in talking to Tehran. The administration readily caved on Iran’s nukes because it viewed the matter only as a timely pretense for achieving other cherished aims. These were: (1) preventing an Israeli attack on Iran; (2) transforming the United States into a more forgiving, less imposing power; (3) establishing diplomacy as a great American good in itself; (4) making Iran into a great regional power; and (5), ensuring the legacies of the president and secretary of state as men of vision and peace.

The administration has always viewed Israel as an intractable troublemaker and the main catalyst for the region’s woes. An Israeli strike on Iran, especially if supported by the United States, would have been yet another display of destabilizing Israeli aggression that put Middle East peace further out of reach. Barack Obama, therefore, repeatedly warned Israel against attacking Iran. Benjamin Netanyahu complied, and for his compliance White House officials taunted him in 2014 as a “chickenshit” whose window of opportunity had closed. That window is now barred. The Iran deal states that the U.S. will train Iranians to counter any sabotage attempts on its nuclear facilities and systems. This is aimed at frustrating Israeli action.

Obama came to office promising to limit American action as well. In his standard progressive view, the United States has been too eager to throw its weight around and impose its norms on other countries without giving sufficient thought to the resentment it might sow. He ended the war in Iraq and sought to remake the United States as a humble power. “Too often the United States starts by dictating,” he told a Saudi news outlet soon after being elected. He, by contrast, would do a lot of “listening.” The Iran negotiations became Obama’s magnum opus on the theme of listening. Americans listened to Iranians dictate terms, shoot down offers, insult the United States, and threaten allies. America has been humbled indeed.
From the administration’s standpoint, the deal was a grand slam. If it left Iran as an official nuclear power on the perpetual verge of a breakout, well, that was always the bargaining chip to get everything else. And with the United States having shown extraordinary cooperation and forgiveness, the thinking goes, even a nuclear Iran will become a less bellicose and more collegial member of the community of nations. What good the deal has already done, the administration believes, will continue to pay dividends. As is his wont, Obama is now declaring as much. But by the time his vision is upended by facts, he’ll be out of office, and we won’t have the luxury of fighting reality with abstractions.
no, i'm not trying to push the thread to a new page because of an odd annoyance when they get to x98.
 

benjipwns

Banned
H.W. had a fall:
Former President George H.W. Bush fell Wednesday while at his summer home in Kennebunkport, Maine, breaking a vertebrae in his neck, but "it was not life threatening," his spokesman Jim McGrath told CNN.

Bush was taken to a hospital in nearby Portland where he is "very stable," McGrath said.

The former president was never disoriented.

"We are not expecting a long stay," McGrath said, though he added Bush would be treated with a neck brace.

He and Jimmy have to make it another two and a half and three years to surpass both Ford and Reagan for longest lived.

John Adams despite living in the 18th and 19th century lived to be almost 91!

Obama is older than only one President lived to be, James K. Polk who died at 53. (Not counting assassinated Presidents.)

George W. is actually older than Bill Clinton, by a month and 13 days. They're both older than William Henry Harrison was when he took office and then immediately died. And both a year older than George Washington when he died.

This has been benji posts strange facts because he looked up something on wikipedia.
 
Still the best Olbermann impression on live TV ever.

Also lay off Thom Hartmann! He may be a little kooky with the alternative medicine stuff but he's actually really smart with economy and politics.

no comment


I hope he plays Bruce Wayne like this.

Totally forgot about that skit. Affleck's best acting performance. Fucking hilarious. You can tell he was having fun with it, too.

BTW, a little birdie has told me Olberman is a POS in real life. Complete an utter asshole to everyone around him. It's the main reason he keeps getting fired, not just about ratings and office politics. He eventually grates on everyone to the point that you have to fire him.

I can't believe he worked his way back after all those years of being demoted down to radio.

Oh, and Benji, Neil Paine sucks on 538. I used to converse with him back when he was at B-R but now most of his articles are just lame. The problem is there isn't enough content to fill and so it ends up being just a bunch of boring things. And there's so little analysis of the past on this site. All of it modern.

Fucking latest article on Kawhi Leonard worth like 5 years, $240 million. And I'm a huge Kawhi Leonard fan, but what a horrible way of doing this...
 

benjipwns

Banned
TBTW, a little birdie has told me Olberman is a POS in real life. Complete an utter asshole to everyone around him. It's the main reason he keeps getting fired, not just about ratings and office politics. He eventually grates on everyone to the point that you have to fire him.
You don't need a little birdie for this. It's pretty well known. Current TV actually said in their press release he was impossible to work with when they fired him and he was their only viable show ratings wise.

There's also an infamous story about him sitting in his bathtub refusing to come into work almost in tears because they wanted him to do a story on Lewinsky on his news show. (Before Countdown made a full transition to opinion instead of the top five most "trending" stories.)

Oh, and Benji, Neil Paine sucks on 538. I used to converse with him back when he was at B-R but now most of his articles are just lame. The problem is there isn't enough content to fill and so it ends up being just a bunch of boring things. And there's so little analysis of the past on this site. All of it modern.
I assume its an ESPN diktat of some kind. Neil used to love the old stuff.
 
You don't need a little birdie for this. It's pretty well known. Current TV actually said he was impossible to work with when they fired him and he was their only viable show ratings wise.

I know it's known, but by that I mean I knew someone who actually worked with him and confirmed it. And it's also not exaggerated at all.

I assume its an ESPN diktat of some kind. Neil used to love the old stuff.

Oh, it most certainly is. ESPN destroyed Paine. :(
 

benjipwns

Banned
One story I heard, which sounds plausible given his history, is that Olbermann had the Countdown set (on Current TV) basically blacked out without telling anyone, and the producers were like "wtf?" And he said he felt the set was distracting viewers from his commentary and that it better represented the state of the country after the 2010 elections.

I want to believe it even if it's fake.

EDIT: I refuse to believe it's technical problems:
http://www.mediaite.com/tv/exclusiv...mann-has-been-broadcasting-from-a-dark-place/

also lol about the Martin Bashir thing
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Can I get some suggestions on good economic/American history podcasts?

Slate's Whistlestop with John Dickerson is pretty good for political history.

I'm still looking for a good economics podcast after Stephanie Kelton stopped hers thanks to Bernie making her chief Democratic economist on the Senate Budget Committee, but you can revisit the 7 episodes she did.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery

oh you

One story I heard, which sounds plausible given his history, is that Olbermann had the Countdown set (on Current TV) basically blacked out without telling anyone, and the producers were like "wtf?" And he said he felt the set was distracting viewers from his commentary and that it better represented the state of the country after the 2010 elections.

I want to believe it even if it's fake.

Actually, I heard the exact opposite. Olbermann was bitching at Current for not providing him with a great set with lots of graphics and shit that he had on MSNBC.

Slate's Whistlestop with John Dickerson is pretty good for political history.

I'm still looking for a good economics podcast after Stephanie Kelton stopped hers thanks to Bernie making her chief Democratic economist on the Senate Budget Committee, but you can revisit the 7 episodes she did.

Sweet, I'll check it out thanks.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Randy Wray is boring as fuck. You're on a show Randy! Max Skidmore seems to understand this.

One problem with this is it's kinda weekly topical so far and would somewhat diminish with time, especially talking about Goldman Sachs projections for their profits this quarter and the Fed's target, the one thing that is nice about Mises and EconTalk is that they just cover random topics often instead of whatever happened that week. (There's only one of these without Randy Wray really that's kinda like that.) I don't know of left-wing totalitarian versions of those though, sorry.

Maybe these will help?
http://www.bestoftheleft.com/
https://player.fm/series/civil-disc...t-views-republican-views-liberal-conservative
http://professionalleft.blogspot.com/
http://www.therationalradical.com/podcastlinks/links.php


And well, obviously:
http://bobavakian.net/audio.html
http://bobavakian.net/audio4.html
 

benjipwns

Banned
Justice Scalia: Why he's a bad influence
Justice Antonin Scalia is setting a terrible example for young lawyers. Ignore, for now, his jurisprudence, his famously strict originalism; it's his tone that's the problem.

I have taught argumentation for many years, first as an instructor to high school and college debaters, currently as a law professor. Throughout my career I have always cautioned students away from nastiness as a crutch for those who cannot win using reason or legal precedent. I have told them to stick to persuasion and to dissecting the opposition's logical fallacies.

But lately my students have been turning in legal briefs laced with derision and ad hominem barbs. For this trend, I largely blame Scalia. My students read his work, find it amusing and imitate his truculent style.

Scalia has long relied on ridicule. In past years he has dismissed his colleagues' decisions as "nothing short of ludicrous" and "beyond absurd," "entirely irrational" and not "pass[ing] the most gullible scrutiny." He has called them "preposterous" and "so unsupported in reason and so absurd in application [as] unlikely to survive."

Scalia's opinions this term, however, were especially nasty, sarcastic and personal.

...

Such mockery does not amount to a legal argument; it's nothing more than an attack on the author's writing technique. A litigator who compared an opponent's brief to a fortune cookie likely would be, and should be, sanctioned by the court.

In Glossip vs. Gross, which upheld the three-drug protocol used in lethal injection, Justice Stephen G. Breyer urged the court to solicit arguments on the death penalty — specifically whether it's a cruel and unusual punishment and thus in violation of the 8th Amendment.

Scalia wrote a scathing response. He referred to Breyer's opinion as "gobbledy-gook" and said his argument was "nonsense." He concluded by stating, "Justice Breyer does not just reject the death penalty, he rejects the Enlightenment."

What did Breyer do to deserve this treatment? He was hardly the first member of the Supreme Court to question the death penalty's constitutionality. Fellow doubters include Justices William J. Brennan Jr., Thurgood Marshall, Harry A. Blackmun and John Paul Stevens.

I do not mean to suggest that Scalia is the first or only member of the court to use invective. Nor do I deny that some find such language entertaining or delightfully funny. But Scalia's browbeating is childish, even vain; like a harshly negative book critic, he revels in his own turns of phrase. And his attitude, just like his legal theory, affects the profession as a whole.

Scalia's spiteful recent dissents probably reflect frustration; after all, he was on the losing side of several major cases. Still, that's no excuse for lashing out. Nor should either liberals or conservatives dismiss such behavior as just "Scalia being Scalia."

If legal professionals ignore Scalia's meanness or — worse — pass around his insults at cocktail parties like Wildean witticisms, they'll encourage a new generation of peevish, callous scoffers.
 
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