Support NeoGAF

[Coriolanus]

I'm all for ditching all the wanking that goes on in most legal papers, tbqh. Heck, i'm all for ditching suits altogether. And court robes.

 

[FiggyCal]

"Econ update" with Richard Wolff is good if you appreciate a Marxian economists' view on current events.

 

[Diablos]

Obama tells reporter: "you should know better"

For a minute that looked like something out of house of cards

Why oh why wasn't Obama this direct with pricks like Major Garrett in the past?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

2008 was lost definitively when Johm McCain, after two years of touting his experience, calm and wise decision making, etc. spent two weeks going OMG WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE, CANCEL THE DEBATES, WE HAVE TO GO BACK TO WASHINGTON, ME AND OBAMA HAVE TO SIT IN ON EVERY SINGLE MEETING, WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHINGGGGGG NO DEBATES ITS A CRISISSSSSSS OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGG LET ME FLY AIR FORCE ONE I CAN CRASH IT QUICKER THAN WALL STREET* while Obama kept his cool and didn't shove himself into the story more than a Senator with less than four years experience should.

*exact quote

It certainly didn't help that Lindsey Graham was his financial adviser and had his fingerprints all over the events leading up to the crash.

 

[Poodlestrike]

I'm all for ditching all the wanking that goes on in most legal papers, tbqh. Heck, i'm all for ditching suits altogether. And court robes.

I just don't think that we should hold court in the nude.

That strikes me as a bad idea.

 

[Coriolanus]

I just don't think that we should hold court in the nude.

That strikes me as a bad idea.

Get in touch with your innermost desires, m8.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I just don't think that we should hold court in the nude.



That strikes me as a bad idea.

Have you never read john stewarts book?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Kentucky Gubernatorial Race: Lean R

Bevin could pull it out.

 

[Fuchsdh]

This has been benji posts strange facts because he looked up something on wikipedia.

Honestly my favorite things about the Wikipedia articles on the the presidents is they usually throw out some chronology-based trivia in the lead, like how JFK was the first president born in the 20th century, McKinley the last president to serve in the Civil War, and William Henry Harrison the last president born before the establishment of the United States.

 

[Poodlestrike]

Get in touch with your innermost desires, m8.

Had to triple-check the URL to make sure it wasn't Clickhole.

Have you never read john stewarts book?

Only the World one.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Had to triple-check the URL to make sure it wasn't Clickhole.



Only the World one.

The america book as nude photos of the justices

 

[Poodlestrike]

The america book as nude photos of the justices

You know, I could have figured that out from context.

You didn't need to spell it out like that.

Agh, my brain!

 

[Wilsongt]

THIS VIDEO. I LOVE THIS VIDEO.

Watching this live was the most amazing thing in the world... Watching that little Rat Bastard lose his shit.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Kentucky Gubernatorial Race: Lean R

Bevin could pull it out.

The Democrats are doomed if they can't win even in the liberal bastion that is Kentucky.

 

[ivysaur12]

Scalia's awesome, and law professors have only themselves to blame if their students are turning in briefs that read like a Scalia dissent. Do your job and teach your students the difference between a Supreme Court dissent (which they will almost certainly never write) and a brief or memorandum.

EDIT: Oh, it's Chemerinsky.

You should talk about this next term in one of your footnotes.

And POLLS!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...n-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html

Virginia went for Barack Obama by 4-6 points in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary Clinton starts out similarly well positioned in the state, leading all of her potential Republican opponents by somewhere in the 4-12 point range. The GOP hopefuls who come the closest to Clinton are Ben Carson and Marco Rubio who each trail by 4 at 47/43, and Rand Paul and Scott Walker who each trail by 5 at 47/42. The Republican who does the worst in the state is native son Jim Gilmore who trails by 12 at 47/35. Also trailing by double digits are Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee at 49/39. In between are Chris Christie who trails by 6 at 45/39, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz who lag by 7 at 46/39 and 48/41 respectively, and Jeb Bush who's down by 8 at 46/38.

We also tested Bernie Sanders against the leading Republicans- he leads Trump 43/39, but trails Bush 40/39, Walker 39/38, and Rubio 40/38. On average Clinton performs a little under 7 points better than Sanders against the top quartet of GOPers in head to head match ups.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The Democrats are doomed if they can't win even in the liberal bastion that is Kentucky.

lol. They were gonna be doomed in KY anyway. It was never a question of how but when.
It will go the way of Arkansas this November if trends continue. West Virginia, Missouri and Montana will follow suit next year.

Ivysaur why did you have to give Bernie Supporters some hope lol.

The Democrats are sacrificing the states for the presidency with their demographic advantage. I guess the question is how long until the coalition spreads to the Republican strongholds(Appalachian, south, plains etc) in the years and decades to come.

 

[ivysaur12]

lol. They were gonna be doomed in KY anyway. It was never a question of how but when.
It will go the way of Arkansas this November if trends continue. West Virginia, Missouri and Montana will follow suit next year.

Ivysaur why did you have to give Bernie Supporters some hope lol.

The Democrats are sacrificing the states for the presidency with their demographic advantage. I guess the question is how long until the coalition spreads to the Republican strongholds(Appalachian, south, plains etc) in the years and decades to come.

If demographic trends continue and the % of minority voters and white voters is steady per party (a huge ask, since these things are volatile), it will eventually become an demographic death trap for the Republican party in the South.

 

[Aaron Strife]

You should talk about this next term in one of your footnotes.

And POLLS!

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...n-virginia-but-clinton-ahead-for-general.html

She's at 270. Start measuring those drapes.

Bernie's numbers are better too. If those undecideds are Democrats...

I've started thinking lately that Bernie might not be as unelectable as people think but not to the point where I'd really want to take that risk.

 

[ivysaur12]

She's at 270. Start measuring those drapes.

Bernie's numbers are better too. If those undecideds are Democrats...

I've started thinking lately that Bernie might not be as unelectable as people think but not to the point where I'd really want to take that risk.

I think it was inevitable with higher name rec that his numbers would go up, as these things do. But also remember, once the Republicans consolidate around the nominee, that nominee's favorability numbers will also increase.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think it was inevitable with higher name rec that his numbers would go up, as these things do. But also remember, once the Republicans consolidate around the nominee, that nominee's favorability numbers will also increase.

Of course, and it's far too early to draw conclusions like that anyway. Bernie would be a huge risk at best.

 

[NeoXChaos]

If demographic trends continue and the % of minority voters and white voters is steady per party (a huge ask, since these things are volatile), it will eventually become an demographic death trap for the Republican party in the South.

well the hope is that white liberals in the south, Appalachian and plains become greater in number and continue to vote democratic as the minority vote also increases and continues to vote Democratic while offsetting whatever gains the Republicans make in their white conservative evangelical demographic plus the baby boomers dying off.

States like Kansas surprise me with how long the Republicans have held an iron grip on the state for last few generations going back to the 30's. Seems that the Obama coalition is very small in states like that or they are moving out to go elsewhere while the vast majority of voters there vote like their Republican parents and grandparents. You well know yourself with your family in CT and other northeast states like VT that went Republican for well over a 100+ years before realigning in 92'. Stuff like this takes a very long time to take hold. Republicans did not lose the northeast over night

 

[NeoXChaos]

The Democrats should have never tried recalling him. They share the blame.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/13/dear-democrats-you-only-have-yourself-to-blame-for-scott-walker/

That Democrats nominated Barrett — the same man who Walker had defeated in the 2010 general election — added to the sense among independents and undecided voters that this was primarily a partisan push to re-do a race in which they didn’t like the final result.

Looking back, it's clear that without the recall, there is no Scott Walker presidential announcement today. What the recall did was turn Walker into a conservative hero/martyr -- the symbol of everything base GOPers hate about unions and, more broadly, the Democratic party. He went from someone no one knew to someone every conservative talk radio host (and their massive audiences) viewed as the tip of the spear in the fight against the creep of misguided Democratic priorities. He became someone who had the phone numbers of every major conservative donor at his fingertips. He became what he is today: The political David who threw a pebble and slew the mighty liberal Goliath.

The recall was a major -- and long-tailed -- strategic mistake by Democrats. It elevated Walker from a low-profile governor into a conservative superstar. If Walker winds up as the Republican nominee in 2016 -- and he has a real chance to be just that -- Democrats have only themselves to blame for his rise. They made Walker into the kind of politician who could beat Hillary Clinton next November.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Meh show me a Walker that could win Virginia

 

[HylianTom]

I like Scalia's writings. Ideally, my dream SCOTUS would be eight Ginsburg-leaning justices and a clone of Scalia, just for the amazingly entertaining/snarky dissents. I'd want to give him a podcast where all he does is discuss cases with various guests (judges/professors/parties/etc) and read dissents.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I don't talk much and mainly lurk. But I did want to get your perspective on the Republican field. NY Times has a great site with who is running and the money they have made so far. Here are the links: Candidates and Money Now there are a varitey of ways to rate the candidates. You could do tiers: (Note these are in alphabetical order in the tiers and are not ranked again)

First Tier (Money from both campaigns and PACs in millions of dollars) Percentage from $200 or less Percentage that have maxed out at $2700

• Bush (114.4) 3.3 81.0 Has his father's and brother's network
• Rubio (40.7) 27.6 31.3
• Walker

Second Tier

• Christie (11)
• Cruz (52.3) 47.0 16.5
• Huckabee (8.0) 29.6 28.2
• Paul (6.9) 64.7 13.5 Has his dad's network
• Perry (17.9) 8.4 71.2 I read that 11 million came from two brothers in Dallas

Third Tier

• Jindal (9.3) 10.3 82.6
• Kasich
• Santorum (0.6) 23.4 46.7 Will get Foster Friess support

Fourth Tier

• Carson (10.6) 80.2 2.9
• Fiorina (5.1) 45.3 24.4
• Graham (3.7) 8.2 31.4
• Pataki (0.3) 7.3 69.7
• Trump (1.9) 40.7 33.6 Independently wealthy

You could also go by what part of the base each candidate appeals to: (These are ranked based on how I believe they are popular in their subgroup)

Establishment

1. Bush (Old Boys Network)
2. Rubio
3. Walker (Koch Brothers)
4. Christie (Wall Street)
5. Perry (Texas Oil)

Tea Party

1. Trump (Leader of the Birthers)
2. Cruz (Tea Party cria 2009)
3. Paul (Original Tea Party)
4. Carson (Could also be in Religious Right)

Religious Right

1. Huckabee (2008 pick)
2. Santorum (2012 pick)
3. Jindal

Randoms

• Graham (Neocon pick)
• Fiorina
• Pataki

How do you think these lists shape up? Would you do any changes to them? Besides Trump, I believe we could see some break outs in the polling from Carson, Walker, and Cruz. Also, I think if Christie gets into the debates, he will self destruct. He's too bombastic.

 

[ivysaur12]

Meh show me a Walker that could win Virginia

I think the challenge for a state like Virginia versus a Michigan, is that demographics are not on the side of Republicans for the state. The larger the state gets, especially as NoVa becomes a de facto suburb of DC, the bluer it gets. Fake Virginia is just going to dominate Virginia politics more and more, to the point where by the 2020 election I would expect it in the same camp as a Minnesota in terms of electoral swing.

Also, Benji brings up a really good point about Vilsack. Does Hillary even need Kaine...?

 

[Black Mamba]

“This performance with our friend out in Phoenix is very hurtful to me,” McCain told the magazine. “Because what he did was he fired up the crazies."

We have a very extreme element within our Republican Party,” McCain said.

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/john-mccain-has-a-few-things-to-say-about-donald-trump

Said without a hint of irony...

 

[Aaron Strife]

I think the challenge for a state like Virginia versus a Michigan, is that demographics are not on the side of Republicans for the state. The larger the state gets, especially as NoVa becomes a de facto suburb of DC, the bluer it gets. Fake Virginia is just going to dominate Virginia politics more and more, to the point where by the 2020 election I would expect it in the same camp as a Minnesota in terms of electoral swing.

Also, Benji brings up a really good point about Vilsack. Does Hillary even need Kaine...?

Probably doesn't need him but it'd help. Vilsack would be alright.

 

[Black Mamba]

Alaska is expanding medicaid. 30 states + DC now.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

She's at 270. Start measuring those drapes.

Bernie's numbers are better too. If those undecideds are Democrats...

I've started thinking lately that Bernie might not be as unelectable as people think but not to the point where I'd really want to take that risk.

Bernie is very easy for the republican to take down in the general. His talk of a "revolution" is very easy to fear monger about and as we've seen in the UK and Israel this year. Fear leads to conservative victories.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The Democrats should have never tried recalling him. They share the blame.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2015/07/13/dear-democrats-you-only-have-yourself-to-blame-for-scott-walker/

this is crap. Walker became big because of his union busting

 

[NeoXChaos]

this is crap. Walker became big because of his union busting

which resulted in the recall which resulted in him getting national coverage which resulted in conservative media taking notice which resulted in his viability with Rubio and Jeb which may result in his nomination.

I think the recall did play a role if not a domino effect. He was probably gonna run anyway but his hopes certainly are better in some way because of the events since 2012. If nothing else the recall emboldened him to get away with much more crap than he would have otherwise if it was closer or he lost.

 

[Macho Madness]

It also possibly gave him false hope so whatever at this point.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

which resulted in the recall which resulted in him getting national coverage which resulted in conservative media taking notice which resulted in his viability with Rubio and Jeb which may result in his nomination.

I think the recall did play a role if not a domino effect. He was probably gonna run anyway but his hopes certainly are better in some way because of the events since 2012. If nothing else the recall emboldened him to get away with much more crap than he would have otherwise if it was closer or he lost.

He became a hero when the senators left the state and the bill was signed. The recall did nothing more to embolden him. He already one and did the unthinkable. Break Unions in wisconsin

 

[Oblivion]

Hey look, Republican is cynical asshole:

[Asked] why he and others waited until this week to take action, Murphy struggled for an answer before abruptly ending the interview with CQ Roll Call, saying he should not be quoted and remarking, “This interview didn’t happen.”

Here’s an excerpt from CQ Roll Call’s hallway chat with Murphy:

CQ Roll Call: “So, what I wondered was, what’s happened in those few weeks? Why is it coming out now and not earlier?”

*Murphy:" “Um, I don’t know why. All I know is I saw it and he said he was going to post it eventually, so that’s all I know.”

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/...eo-discrepancies-This-interview-didn-t-happen

LOL.

 

[RDreamer]

He became a hero when the senators left the state and the bill was signed. The recall did nothing more to embolden him. He already one and did the unthinkable. Break Unions in wisconsin

It was really a combination of the two that did it. Democrats leaving the state really helped his case in painting the recall as a partisan waste of time and money.

 

[ErasureAcer]

So Bernie according to a PPP poll is tied essentially with all the top Republican candidates in Virginia. I wonder what excuse some of you will come out with now on how he can't win the general election.

 

[Aaron Strife]

So Bernie according to a PPP poll is tied essentially with all the top Republican candidates in Virginia. I wonder what excuse some of you will come out with now that he's unelectable in a General Election.

His tie is 40-40 though. Hillary's numbers are much higher.

Look I love Bernie but man you'd have to be blind to ignore the huge electability gap.

 

[ErasureAcer]

His tie is 40-40 though. Hillary's numbers are much higher.

Look I love Bernie but man you'd have to be blind to ignore the huge electability gap.

What gap?

 

[RDreamer]

Look I love Bernie but man you'd have to be blind to ignore the huge electability gap.

I know the whole point of this thread and forums in general is to discuss things, but I really don't think there's much to talk about with regard to electability in a general as of now. When you're faced with only two choices, I think electability really really depends on who you're running against and what their platform is, too... and basically how much of a narrative has stuck from the primaries on each candidate. It's like talking about the 4th quarter of a basketball game when we've seen 1 minute of play.

There's a lot of really shitty republicans in this race, and there are a lot of really bad narratives about each that could pop up. There's a large chance that the electability gap won't fucking matter because almost no matter what a republican isn't winning. Who knows.

I mean here we are talking about general electability and there's a decent chance Scott Walker the man in the last few days who has equated homosexuality with pedophilia and said minimum wage is lame might be the one running against the democrat. You wanna talk about unelectable? If that narrative sticks, he's unelectable.

 

[pigeon]

What gap?

Uh, the one in your source?

Hillary vs Bush: 46-38. Sanders vs Bush: 39-40. 9 point gap.
Hillary vs Rubio: 47-43. Sanders vs Rubio: 38-40. 6 point gap.
Hillary vs Walker: 47-42. Sanders vs Walker: 38-39. 6 point gap.

That's an electability gap! I mean, it's the kind of gap that loses elections. Even if you were 100% confident that we had 6 points to give away in 2016, frankly, I'd rather keep them and win the House.

 

[thepotatoman]

I think the challenge for a state like Virginia versus a Michigan, is that demographics are not on the side of Republicans for the state. The larger the state gets, especially as NoVa becomes a de facto suburb of DC, the bluer it gets. Fake Virginia is just going to dominate Virginia politics more and more, to the point where by the 2020 election I would expect it in the same camp as a Minnesota in terms of electoral swing.

Also, Benji brings up a really good point about Vilsack. Does Hillary even need Kaine...?

Exactly what I was thinking. It's pretty clear that the liberal parts of Virginia are growing far faster than the conservative parts. It's also worth noting that it's close to Pennsylvania in inelasticity according to Nate Silver, going by the amount of actual swing voters judged by pollsters.

I think for 2016 Virginia is going move left of Colorado, making it the furthest left state that republicans absolutely must win. The only other path for republicans without Virginia is Pennsylvania or the clean sweep of Iowa + Colorado + New Hampshire.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Uh, the one in your source?

Hillary vs Bush: 46-38. Sanders vs Bush: 39-40. 9 point gap.
Hillary vs Rubio: 47-43. Sanders vs Rubio: 38-40. 6 point gap.
Hillary vs Walker: 47-42. Sanders vs Walker: 38-39. 6 point gap.

That's an electability gap! I mean, it's the kind of gap that loses elections. Even if you were 100% confident that we had 6 points to give away in 2016, frankly, I'd rather keep them and win the House.

Funny. All the maps you guys keep posting say Virginia is a toss-up...dead heat. Bernie's numbers go with that. But now you're saying Virginia is actually Lean Democrat. Make up your mind!

 

[Coriolanus]

To be fair, bernie *has* been growing, no? Sure, he should eventually stall, but it hasn't happened yet.

Either way the problem remains that this election isn't a case of "who can beat the republican candidate", but a case of "who can beat hillster", and in that regard, bernie's true boss challenge still remains solidly insurmountable. For now.

 

[ivysaur12]

Funny. All the maps you guys keep posting say Virginia is a toss-up...dead heat. Bernie's numbers go with that. But now you're saying Virginia is actually Lean Democrat. Make up your mind!

Almost everyone in thread would consider Virginia a Lean Democrat with Hillary at the top of the ticket.

 

[RDreamer]

Uh, the one in your source?

Hillary vs Bush: 46-38. Sanders vs Bush: 39-40. 9 point gap.
Hillary vs Rubio: 47-43. Sanders vs Rubio: 38-40. 6 point gap.
Hillary vs Walker: 47-42. Sanders vs Walker: 38-39. 6 point gap.

That's an electability gap! I mean, it's the kind of gap that loses elections. Even if you were 100% confident that we had 6 points to give away in 2016, frankly, I'd rather keep them and win the House.

Quite frankly the fact that it's only a 6-9 point gap this early in the game vs a politician who's been in the national spotlight for literally decades and has insane name recognition is kind of a big deal.

 

[ivysaur12]

Quite frankly the fact that it's only a 6-9 point gap this early in the game vs a politician who's been in the national spotlight for literally decades and has insane name recognition is kind of a big deal.

What? Virginia has a Cook PVI of EVEN and Hillary is probably in one of the best positions of a non-incumbent in modern history.

It's a big deal how much ahead of the Republican pack she is at this point, yes.

Exactly what I was thinking. It's pretty clear that the liberal parts of Virginia are growing far faster than the conservative parts. It's also worth noting that it's close to Pennsylvania in inelasticity according to Nate Silver, going by the amount of actual swing voters judged by pollsters.

I think for 2016 Virginia is going move left of Colorado, making it the furthest left state that republicans absolutely must win. The only other path for republicans without Virginia is Pennsylvania or the clean sweep of Iowa + Colorado + New Hampshire.

Great news for Heidi Heitkamp.

Also, if we're going to look at the larger cities and counties in Virginia that Obama did the best in:

Richmond (city): 4.55%
Norfolk (city): 1.55%
Alexandria (city): 10.91%
Arlington County: 10.44%
Newport News (city): 1.46%
Fairfax: 3.44%
Loudoun: 15.82% (!!)

Fairfax's gigantic population just eclipse any small growth in Romney counties, especially since most of rural Virginia is losing population.

Real Virginia is dead.

 

[Ecotic]

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/07/16/fox-news-poll-trust-in-iran-nearly-triples-among-democrats-clinton-nature-is-to/

Trumpmentum baby. Rubio's really fallen as the second choice.

 

[pigeon]

Funny. All the maps you guys keep posting say Virginia is a toss-up...dead heat. Bernie's numbers go with that. But now you're saying Virginia is actually Lean Democrat. Make up your mind!

If you actually read the posts that go along with those maps you will note that they're coming from sites that exist to create horse race coverage and so they're starting from the assumption that the race is 50-50. I don't think that assumption is accurate, and so it doesn't surprise me that the polls agree with me.

I also don't understand what you're even arguing here. Are you arguing that the maps are inconsistent with the poll and somehow that makes the fact that Bernie is running 6 points behind Hillary irrelevant? I didn't create either of them, and it's totally irrelevant to the question of who is more electable in any case!

Quite frankly the fact that it's only a 6-9 point gap this early in the game vs a politician who's been in the national spotlight for literally decades and has insane name recognition is kind of a big deal.

Maybe. I think it mostly highlights the "negative partisanship" idea that's been going around the blogosphere. Whether or not you know who Bernie is, you know who the GOP candidate is, and you hate them. The question is whether Bernie would pick up those 6 points as the campaign went on. I think that he might get some of them back, but not all of them.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2015/07/16/fox-news-poll-trust-in-iran-nearly-triples-among-democrats-clinton-nature-is-to/

Trumpmentum baby. Rubio's really fallen as the second choice.

Now would be a great time for one of the GOP candidates to change their name to "Don't know/None of the above" to get into the GOP debates.

 

[RDreamer]

Maybe. I think it mostly highlights the "negative partisanship" idea that's been going around the blogosphere. Whether or not you know who Bernie is, you know who the GOP candidate is, and you hate them. The question is whether Bernie would pick up those 6 points as the campaign went on. I think that he might get some of them back, but not all of them.

I definitely agree with this. I don't know that he'll gain all of that differential back, but I do think he'll gain some.

I just don't like jumping to the huge conclusion that he would be terrible in a general election and lose when he's barely started campaigning at all and we haven't even had any public debates or anything, really. Once a debate or two go by and he's still lagging 6 points behind, then definitely start that narrative. I'll be right there with you. Now that no one knows him at all and literally everyone knows Clinton? I dunno that we can really predict the future that well.