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[NeoXChaos]

Can trump really substain these leads for 6 months? All of Aug, all of Sept, all of Oct, all of Nov, all of Dec, and finally all of Jan? I highly highly doubt it.

We are all going to look like fools come February when(if) he bombs in the raw vote.

 

[Jack Remington]

Gotta hope the clown car stays mostly full until February. I think Trump can absolutely win the early primaries in a large field.

 

[Limited Edition]

Clinton favorability numbers look very ominous to me. I can't imagine a person winning an election with negative margins that large.

Whats going to be interesting is when the Republican field narrows down to 1 or 2 people after some of the debates. With the distinct lack of trust in her that a lot of people seem to have, it could get ugly in the polls.

I still think she will win, but it a long way till election day still.

So Bush is a longshot to you, but you think Rand is who it could be?

LOL

Bush has to overcome his last name, and with his bumbling I don't see it happening at all. At best, I see him lasting halfway through the Primaries and then flaming out.

 

[Plinko]

I could see it coming down to Walker or Rand. Maybe Cruz, if he can keep his mouth shut. Bush is way to much of a long shot, Perry is already weak. Carson is gaining steam which I didn't see coming, but I don't see him pulling off a huge upset. The rest will bumble their way through the first debates and drop out, or drop out right after their sub-1% vote tallies in the first few states.

Regardless, Rubio will wind up as the VP pick.

So Bush is a longshot to you, but you think Rand is who it could be?

LOL

 

[Trouble]

Honestly, I'm enjoying the train wreck as much as the next person, but I get nervous when I think about Trump winning getting the nomination. So much can happen during the general. Someone digs up some really bad dirt on Hillary, then bam President Trump and we all die in WW3. I'd prefer a republican nominee that won't win, but doesn't absolutely terrify me when I think about their potential presidency.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Honestly, I'm enjoying the train wreck as much as the next person, but I get nervous when I think about Trump winning getting the nomination. So much can happen during the general. Someone digs up some really bad dirt on Hillary, then bam President Trump and we all die in WW3. I'd prefer a republican nominee that won't win, but doesn't absolutely terrify me when I think about their potential presidency.

A Republican president with a Republican Congress would be disastrous no matter who it is. Might as well go full tilt boogie and risk the 1% chance that Trump wins the presidency.

 

[Bowdz]

Can trump really substain these leads for 6 months? All of Aug, all of Sept, all of Oct, all of Nov, all of Dec, and finally all of Jan? I highly highly doubt it.

We are all going to look like fools come February when(if) he bombs in the raw vote.

One important difference to keep in mind is that Trump is, to a large extend, self funding his campaign. Despite the Politico article this week concerning his available cash, I don't see him flaming out to the degree that the 2012 front runners did when they made their verbal/campaign gaffes.

I think Trump will be more resilient than most people think (although I certainly don't think he will win the nomination).

 

[B-Dubs]

I could see it coming down to Walker or Rand. Maybe Cruz, if he can keep his mouth shut. Bush is way to much of a long shot, Perry is already weak. Carson is gaining steam which I didn't see coming, but I don't see him pulling off a huge upset. The rest will bumble their way through the first debates and drop out, or drop out right after their sub-1% vote tallies in the first few states.

Regardless, Rubio will wind up as the VP pick.

Rand is a joke, he can't even convince all his father's supporters to get behind him. He's two faced and that never plays well.

 

[Plinko]

Honestly, I'm enjoying the train wreck as much as the next person, but I get nervous when I think about Trump winning getting the nomination. So much can happen during the general. Someone digs up some really bad dirt on Hillary, then bam President Trump and we all die in WW3. I'd prefer a republican nominee that won't win, but doesn't absolutely terrify me when I think about their potential presidency.

Trump would be nowhere near as damaging to the country as Walker would be. Not anywhere near close.

 

[watershed]

I've been surprised by how flat Rand Paul has been in this primary. I know it's early still but he has become a complete after thought at this point. I guess a lot of that is self-inflicted and Trump has taken a lot of his "anti-establishment" support.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Btw Sanders is beating Walker in that CNN poll 48-43.

And only trails Bush by a point.

 

[Y2Kev]

Rand's slogan is too long. defeat the washington machine unleash the american dream

seriously? This is why Donald Trump came up with and copyrighted the genius MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! It's so great. He copyrighted it.

 

[Wilsongt]

Perry wants people to be able to take guns into dark and sometimes crowded movie theaters, because nothing can go wrong. Right? Right?

 

[BertramCooper]

Rand's slogan is too long. defeat the washington machine unleash the american dream

I'm sorry, but you can't be a second-generation member of Congress and run your campaign against "the Washington machine."

Randy is so full of shit.

 

[thepotatoman]

One important difference to keep in mind is that Trump is, to a large extend, self funding his campaign. Despite the Politico article this week concerning his available cash, I don't see him flaming out to the degree that the 2012 front runners did when they made their verbal/campaign gaffes.

I think Trump will be more resilient than most people think (although I certainly don't think he will win the nomination).

He's also somebody that everyone mostly already knows. The spotlight didn't hit those two until they found themselves leading the polls, and the spotlight is what ate them up. Trump on the other hand has been in the spotlight for decades, with the media constantly attacking him. Another month of the media focusing on him and attacking him isn't going to change much.

His biggest problem is the upper limit, after candidates drop out and you start needing more than 25% support to lead the polls, but it'll be a little while until that happens.

 

[Tamanon]

I'm sorry, but you can't be a second-generation member of Congress and run your campaign against "the Washington machine."

Randy is so full of shit.

Especially when he's competing against so many Governors and people who don't even hold office.

 

[makingmusic476]

Anybody else going to the Bernie Sanders rally in New Orleans tonight?

 

[BertramCooper]

Bloomberg: Mike Huckabee Uses Holocaust Reference to Slam Obama's Iran Deal

“This president’s foreign policy is the most feckless in American history," Huckabee said. "It is so naive that he would trust the Iranians. By doing so, he will take the Israelis and march them to the door of the oven."

 

[watershed]

Bloomberg: Mike Huckabee Uses Holocaust Reference to Slam Obama's Iran Deal

Yeah Huckabee is ridiculous but he's also a non-factor at this point. He is destined to a second tier also-ran.

 

[Wilsongt]

Bloomberg: Mike Huckabee Uses Holocaust Reference to Slam Obama's Iran Deal

In the world of the GOP, the only two good countries in the world that exist are the US and Israel.

Everyone else can fuck off.

 

[BertramCooper]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

 

[Mario]

Bloomberg: Mike Huckabee Uses Holocaust Reference to Slam Obama's Iran Deal

I liked Jon Stewart's point in the last week that in the last few years Iran has been within mere months of building a nuclear weapon according to Bibi and some Republicans. Now those same people are saying Iran will have a bomb within 10-15 years oh noes.

At the door of the oven indeed.

 

[Wilsongt]

To make it less Nazi-ish, we can always assume Fuckabee meant marching the Israelis to the oven so that they can cook up some delicious pastries and goodies to share with the middle east.

No? No?

 

[Plinko]

Huckabee is such an idiot.

 

[BertramCooper]

Sorry for more Huckabee shit, but I started down the Wikipedia wormhole and this gave me a good laugh:

 

[Wilsongt]

You have to wonder what normal Israelis and Iranians do on a daily basis when they hear what our elected officials say about them. You know, people not in the military or who hold a political office. Just those who go about their daily lives not bothered by conflict.

What do they think when people like Huckabee and the rest of the GOP essentially lump all Iranians in with terrorists, or what Israelis do when they hear that another country is about to commit Nazi-level genocide against them?

Do you think they roll their eyes nearly as much as we do?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Sorry guys but I can't see Trump surviving that long to make it to all 6 debates before the primary. He has to flame out at some point. Money can only get him so far.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Sorry guys but I can't see Trump surviving that long to make it to all 6 debates before the primary. He has to flame out at some point. Money can only get him so far.

Romney's only saving grace in 2012 was money. He could barely beat Rick Santorum.

 

[Mike M]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

Jesus, his own campaign put this out?

 

[BlackGhost]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

Oh

 

[NeoXChaos]

Romney's only saving grace in 2012 was money. He could barely beat Rick Santorum.

Once they get to know about Trump's liberal positions he will fall. Bush and Walker will see to it they do.

I will say this though: If he makes it to all six debates, gets 2nd place in IA, & gets in either 1st or 2nd in NH, I will donate to his campaign.

 

[BertramCooper]

Jesus, his own campaign put this out?

https://www.facebook.com/mikehuckab....6934857868/10153154242152869/?type=1&theater

 

[Dan]

Huckabee: "Over here, over here! Look at me! I can say wildly crass and hyperbolic statements, too!"

 

[Wilsongt]

https://www.facebook.com/mikehuckab....6934857868/10153154242152869/?type=1&theater

Those comments.

I await the day God comes down and turns off Iran's centrifuges and takes away their enriched radiative material.

Oh wait...

 

[RustyNails]

Mike Huckabee is one thunderously stupid cunt.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Once they get to know about Trump's liberal positions he will fall. Bush and Walker will see to it they do.

I will say this though: If he makes it to all six debates, gets 2nd place in IA, & gets in either 1st or 2nd in NH, I will donate to his campaign.

I think Trump's liberal positions will be more than compensated for his unbridled hatred of immigrants.

Even his healthcare idea won't be that big of a deal - primary voters won't care if his alternative to Obamacare is more progressive because at least it's not Obamacare. Their opposition to healthcare reform is not principled by anything but hatred of Obama.

 

[kess]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

Is his campaign logo supposed to be a symbolic representation of people's synapses snapping?

"More stars, Joe"

 

[Trouble]

Huckabee: "Over here, over here! Look at me! I can say wildly crass and hyperbolic statements, too!"

Yup. I doubt it's going to work, though.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

This quote and other huckabee comments about jews

are just reminders that a lot of the right's philosemitism is just repackaged antisemitism


Reminded of this essay too

So I have found it to be a good rule of thumb that anyone who identifies as a philosemite is to be treated with the same amused contempt as anyone who says they love “the African people”.

This stems from when she first found out as a youngster about the Holocaust, which was, like, totally tragic and amazing and terrible, yeah? Cue a lifetime of loving Jews by reducing them to insulting stereotypes. Jews, according to Burchill, are fascinatingly exotic. She gets crushes on the men and she loves all the adorable Jewish people in Israel, who are all chosen and stoical and wise – like people in storybooks, really! Jews are also, according to Burchill, the diametric opposite of Muslim people, who are all horrible, and their oppression of women is much worse than the oppressive codes for orthodox Jewish women, because Jews are good and Muslim people are bad. Burchill, for the record, is 55 years old.

Burchill divides up the chosen people into Good Jews (hardliners, Israelites) and Bad Jews (liberal Jews) with the enthusiasm of an antisemite. Hilariously, she sets herself up as the Jewishness Police, railing against Jews who are not Jewish enough;

 

[kess]

The Trump campaign should start a rumor that the secret "S" in Huckabee's logo stands for SATAN SATAN SATAN

 

[B-Dubs]

The Trump campaign should start a rumor that the secret "S" in Huckabee's logo stands for SATAN SATAN SATAN

You should tweet him this, he might actually do it. "Hey @Trump I heard the secret S in @huckabee's logo stands for SATAN"

 

[HylianTom]

Anybody else going to the Bernie Sanders rally in New Orleans tonight?

Nah. I'm doing some of my own personal lobbying tonight: we're having dinner with a neighbor to discuss pending home construction plans before we go before the Historic District and Zoning Boards for approval. So far, we have approvals from 6 of our 8 bordering neighbors. Fingers crossed..

 

[ivysaur12]

Everyone's favorables from that CNN polls:

Hillary: -3
Jeb: -10
Trump: -25
Huckabee: -2
Rand: -6
Rubio: -3
Bernie: +1
Cruz: -12
Walker: -2
Carson: +1

GOP primary:

Trump: 19%
Jeb: 15%
Walker: 10%
Rubio: 7%
Cruz: 6%
Paul: 6%
Huckabee: 5%
Carson: 4%
Christie: 4%
Kasich: 4%
Perry: 3%
Graham: 2%
Jindal: 2%
Fiorina: 1%
Santorum: 1%
Gilmore: *

49% (down 2%) of Republicans want Trump to stay in the race as a Republican. 17% (up 2%) want him to run as an independent. 34% (down 1%) want to see him drop out all together.

Democratic primary:

Clinton: 57% (no change)
Sanders: 18% (+4%)
Biden: 14% (-4%)
Webb: 2% (no change)
O'Malley * (was 1%)
Chafee: * (was *)

Democrats second choice:

Clinton: 21%
Bernie: 18%
Biden: 38%

Clinton v Bush: 51% - 46%
Clinton v Trump: 57% - 38%
Clinton v Walker: 54% - 43%

Sanders v Bush: 48% - 47%
Sanders v Trump: 58% - 38%
Sanders v Walker: 48% - 42%

Independent favorables:

Clinton: -24
Sanders: +2
Jeb: -14
Trump: -18
Rand: +6
Rubio: -6
Walker: -3
Carson: +2
Huckabee: -4
Cruz: -9


A lot of the Republican candidates minus Jeb really have little name recognition with Independents, though. 43% have never heard of Scott Walker.

 

[Jack Remington]

The biggest advantage Clinton has wrt to her poor favorables is that the entire GOP field also has poor favorable numbers. It's why I'm not too concerned about the "perceived dishonesty" or what have you.

 

[ivysaur12]

The biggest advantage Clinton has wrt to her poor favorables is that the entire GOP field also has poor favorable numbers. It's why I'm not too concerned about the "perceived dishonesty" or what have you.

Yeah, I edited my post a bit, but a lot of the Republican candidates are also relatively unknown to the general populace, and favorability might only get you so far. Same with Bernie Sanders. His "don't know" numbers are in the 40%, like many smaller candidates, so it's hard to really gauge how he would do with better numbers.

But fuck favorability, let's go to head to head with independents:

Clinton v Bush: -3
Clinton v Trump: +14
Clinton v Walker: +5

Sanders v Bush: +5
Sanders v Trump: +15
Sanders v Walker: +4

So with all this talk about favorability, it doesn't seem to really translate (for independents) on who they'd vote for in a head-to-head. Clinton will probably lose independents nationally, too.

 

[HylianTom]

The biggest advantage Clinton has wrt to her poor favorables is that the entire GOP field also has poor favorable numbers. It's why I'm not too concerned about the "perceived dishonesty" or what have you.

Pretty much. If I recall correctly, we were worried about Obama's numbers back in 2011-12, but they mean nothing by themselves - they mean everything in relation to the competition.

So long as Hillary remains in the same neighborhood of her competition, she should be just fine. We still see this in the head-to-head numbers: voters are savvy enough to say, yeah, she may be sketchy.. but at least she's not one of those loons on stage with Trump.

 

[CrimzonSamurai]

Yeah, I edited my post a bit, but a lot of the Republican candidates are also relatively unknown to the general populace, and favorability might only get you so far. Same with Bernie Sanders. His "don't know" numbers are in the 40%, like many smaller candidates, so it's hard to really gauge how he would do with better numbers.

But fuck favorability, let's go to head to head with independents:

Clinton v Bush: -3
Clinton v Trump: +14
Clinton v Walker: +5

Sanders v Bush: +5
Sanders v Trump: +15
Sanders v Walker: +4

So with all this talk about favorability, it doesn't seem to really translate (for independents) on who they'd vote for in a head-to-head. Clinton will probably lose independents nationally, too.

How does Sanders pick up 8 from Bush over Clinton with the same sample group?! That just seems illogical, captain.

 

[Tamanon]

I wonder what the numbers would look like without Biden who isn't even running. I expect most of his support would go to Hillary.

 

[ivysaur12]

How does Sanders pick up 8 from Bush over Clinton with the same sample group?! That just seems illogical, captain.

He's not nearly as well known. It seems as if his responses are sort of Generic D versus Jeb. My guess is his numbers with independents would drop as he became more prominent, since I don't think any Democrat is going to win the Independent vote in 2016.

Also, Hillary starts to lay out her plan on Climate Change: https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/625444794018312192

 

[B-Dubs]

I wonder what the numbers would look like without Biden who isn't even running. I expect most of his support would go to Hillary.

I think it'd split between Hillary and Bernie, Biden has a bit of crossover appeal. They're gonna keep polling his name until the deadline passes though, if only because the media wants a more competitive race.