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[RastaMentality]

Hillary's video was actually nicely edited. The delivery on some of the lines could've been better but she's starting to sound better. She's never gonna reach Obama-tier speaking levels but I feel she can pull a few good speeches in her first term.

 

[thepotatoman]

How does Sanders pick up 8 from Bush over Clinton with the same sample group?! That just seems illogical, captain.

We're talking about independents here, people whose sole defining attribute is rejecting the idea of a single party allegiance. It's not that hard to believe that independents specifically really dislike the idea of dynasties.

Its kindof why I think Clinton might be in trouble in a independent heavy state like Colorado or Iowa if anyone other than Bush gets the nomination, but she won't need those states if she wins Virginia.

 

[B-Dubs]

We're talking about independents here, people whose sole defining attribute is rejecting the idea of a single party allegiance. It's not that hard to believe that independents specifically really dislike the idea of perceived dynasties.

Fixed that for you. If Chelsea Clinton was running, that would be a dynasty.

Its kindof why I think Clinton might be in trouble in a independent heavy state like Colorado or Iowa if anyone other than Bush gets the nomination, but she won't need those states if she wins Virginia.

Honestly, I wouldn't be too worried about Colorado. I seriously doubt the state that legalized weed is going to go for one of the guys that wants to take it away from them.

 

[Meus Renaissance]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

Let us be perfectly clear here.

Irrespective of his positions, Mike Huckabee is not an idiot. The language he uses and the anecdotes he gives - like any politician - is designed for his audience. His campaign team used this because they realised it would resonate with their target group; the low-information conservative who relies on catch phrases and key words to make decisions. What room is there for reason; for articulated points; facts; level-headedness and maturity when the people you need to reach are cheering on Trump?

Palin understood it. That Katie Couric interview endeared her to this group. She wasn't an intellectual. She didn't use political language. Did she have a well rounded understanding of world affairs? Shit, did the average Joe in Tennessee? ; she was a mama-bear and understood folksy language and hunted animals. People identified with her.

Trump gets it. The jabs against immigrants? The language of calling opponents 'losers'? Judging from that campaign infographic, Huckabee is beginning to get it too.

This is American politics.

 

[NeoXChaos]

We're talking about independents here, people whose sole defining attribute is rejecting the idea of a single party allegiance. It's not that hard to believe that independents specifically really dislike the idea of dynasties.

Its kindof why I think Clinton might be in trouble in a independent heavy state like Colorado or Iowa if anyone other than Bush gets the nomination, but she won't need those states if she wins Virginia.

For the last time Clinton isnt a dynasty. The last and only Clinton Presidency ended in 2001. 2017 marks 16 years since it ended. The Clinton that would like to be the 2nd one is of no blood relation but by marriage.

The Bush name is a dynasty. The last and 2nd Bush Presidency ended in 2009. 2017 marks 8 years since it ended. The Bush that would like to be the 3rd one is of blood relation to not only the one that in 2009 but also the one that ended in 1993 who was also VP for 8 years.

 

[RastaMentality]

Hillary should put these type of videos on tv instead of a ton of attack ads. They're nice and she's well known enough to not have to feature her face.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Fixed that for you. If Chelsea Clinton was running, that would be a dynasty.

I saw an old quote from Barbara Bush about how "America is tired of Bushes and Clintons" and it's like... We've had one Clinton, who by all accounts was a great president. Compared to a father perceived as mediocre and a son who was perceived as a disaster. And on top of that this is coming from the Bush family, who has a vested interest in seeing a Republican win the presidency. If it wasn't this crap about dynasties, if the Democratic front runner was Joe Biden or Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand it would be something else. It's quite disingenuous and I hope that doesn't rub off on independents too much.

 

[ivysaur12]

We're talking about independents here, people whose sole defining attribute is rejecting the idea of a single party allegiance. It's not that hard to believe that independents specifically really dislike the idea of dynasties.

Its kindof why I think Clinton might be in trouble in a independent heavy state like Colorado or Iowa if anyone other than Bush gets the nomination, but she won't need those states if she wins Virginia.

It's too bad we don't really have a healthy dose of state polls yet. Only that last Quinnipiac poll is really what we've gotten for Iowa or Colorado.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I saw an old quote from Barbara Bush about how "America is tired of Bushes and Clintons" and it's like... We've had one Clinton, who by all accounts was a great president. Compared to a father perceived as mediocre and a son who was perceived as a disaster. And on top of that this is coming from the Bush family, who has a vested interest in seeing a Republican win the presidency. If it wasn't this crap about dynasties, if the Democratic front runner was Joe Biden or Cory Booker or Kirsten Gillibrand it would be something else. It's quite disingenuous and I hope that doesn't rub off on independents too much.

Agreed and she went back on it now that Jeb is running. We haven't gone a good 8 years without a Bush running for President since 80'. The family are political beast. They have lived breathed and studied politics all their life.

 

[benjipwns]

I've been surprised by how flat Rand Paul has been in this primary. I know it's early still but he has become a complete after thought at this point. I guess a lot of that is self-inflicted and Trump has taken a lot of his "anti-establishment" support.

He's consistently been about fourth or fifth in polls, roughly where his dad was last cycle. It's just a lower % because like everyone across the board, there's so many candidates.

He can never get traction, let alone win the nomination, because of his foreign policy.

Romney's only saving grace in 2012 was money. He could barely beat Rick Santorum.

And his lock on a third of the party from day zero.

Santorum didn't win a single state until Super Tuesday. Romney was up 15-3 on Santorum. And 19-6 when Santorum dropped out.

Orange is Romney, green is Santorum:

Ron Paul won almost three times as many delegates from the states that were Jan 3 - Mar 3 as Santorum. Winning three states to zero.

 

[ivysaur12]

It's sort of crazy that Santorum has zero traction in 2016.

I also think the only candidate on the Republican side that could really give Hillary a run for it is Rand Paul, and as benji said, that seems DOA because of his foreign policy and probably some less-than-great statements from his past (though nothing compared to his father).

In fact, a Rand Paul nomination would probably be the kick in the pants that the Republican party needs to be competitive in national elections. A Vermont socialist should not be beating or tying any Republican candidates in national polls, yet here we are.

 

[thepotatoman]

For the last time Clinton isnt a dynasty. The last and only Clinton Presidency ended in 2001. 2017 marks 16 years since it ended. The Clinton that would like to be the 2nd one is of no blood relation but by marriage.

The Bush name is a dynasty. The last and 2nd Bush Presidency ended in 2009. 2017 marks 8 years since it ended. The Bush that would like to be the 3rd one is of blood relation to not only the one that in 2009 but also the one that ended in 1993 who was also VP for 8 years.

I agree, Clinton isn't a dynasty. But I do think that's what independents think.

 

[sangreal]

Santorum didn't win a single state until Super Tuesday. Romney was up 15-3 on Santorum. And 19-6 when Santorum dropped out.

Orange is Romney, green is Santorum:

Ron Paul won almost three times as many delegates from the states that were Jan 3 - Mar 3 as Santorum. Winning three states to zero.

Santorum won Iowa. Poor reporting/counting is what killed his momentum (and boosted Romney)

Not that I think he ever had a chance

 

[benjipwns]

Santorum didn't win Iowa, Ron Paul did. He beat Romney and undecided 21-1-3.

Santorum won the beauty contest straw poll which decides zero delegates on the GOP side despite the news media thinking otherwise and saying Santorum and Romney each won 12 of Iowa's delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008*.

With the primaries going PR to start in 2016, this is going to matter even more to who stays in.

*EDIT: Including in Iowa itself.

Obama won the straw poll: 37.6%-29.7%-29.4% over Edwards and Hillary. The media projected that the delegates were 16-14-15.

Obama actually won the delegates 28-3-14.

Those type of wins are what built his delegate count even as Hillary was winning the straw poll+primary popular vote.

 

[Plinko]

A lot of the Republican candidates minus Jeb really have little name recognition with Independents, though. 43% have never heard of Scott Walker.

That's probably working in his favor right now, actually.

 

[sangreal]

Santorum didn't win Iowa, Ron Paul did. He beat Romney and undecided 21-1-3.

Santorum won the beauty contest straw poll which decides zero delegates on the GOP side despite the news media thinking otherwise and saying Santorum and Romney each won 12 of Iowa's delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008*.

With the primaries going PR to start in 2016, this is going to matter even more to who stays in.

*EDIT: Including in Iowa itself.

Obama won the straw poll: 37.6%-29.7%-29.4% over Edwards and Hillary. The media projected that the delegates were 16-14-15.

Obama actually won the delegates 28-3-14.

Those type of wins are what built his delegate count even as Hillary was winning the straw poll+primary popular vote.

fair enough, but that never really mattered in recent history outside of 2008. Brokered conventions are a pipedream of the supporters of loser candidates

 

[ivysaur12]

Santorum didn't win Iowa, Ron Paul did. He beat Romney and undecided 21-1-3.

Santorum won the beauty contest straw poll which decides zero delegates on the GOP side despite the news media thinking otherwise and saying Santorum and Romney each won 12 of Iowa's delegates.

This is how Obama won in 2008*.

With the primaries going PR to start in 2016, this is going to matter even more to who stays in.

*EDIT: Including in Iowa itself.

Obama won the straw poll: 37.6%-29.7%-29.4% over Edwards and Hillary. The media projected that the delegates were 16-14-15.

Obama actually won the delegates 28-3-14.

Those type of wins are what built his delegate count even as Hillary was winning the straw poll+primary popular vote.

God, I forgot how much I hate primaries. Following the delegate rules was not fun.

 

[benjipwns]

fair enough, but that never really mattered in recent history outside of 2008. Brokered conventions are a pipedream of the supporters of loser candidates

Well, right because the actual caucuses/primaries are the third step in the primaries.

One thing we haven't had this time, and I think the Tea Party is one major factor in this, is that there wasn't an Elite Primary stage. Nobody was seriously winnowed out.

You can tell this because Jim fucking Gilmore decided to run again. He couldn't raise $100,000 in 2008 when he was more well known.

Also, nobody who has entered has backed out yet. 1996, 2000, 2008 and 2012 were full of candidates who did this before the first debate.

EDIT: I can't see anyone, outside of some weird scandal, bailing out until after the second debate this time.

 

[ivysaur12]

Everyone: What's your favorite episode of Fred Thompson on Law & Order?

 

[benjipwns]

Everyone: What's your favorite episode of Fred Thompson on Law & Order?

It's because I'm a lesbian isn't it?

 

[ivysaur12]

It's because I'm a lesbian isn't it?

"I'm going to post this and I bet Benji will have a response first being extremely familiar with the material" -- Me, 2 minutes ago.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Romney's only saving grace in 2012 was money. He could barely beat Rick Santorum.

That's not true, as Benji pointed out. The only candidate who could have beaten Romney in 2012 was Perry, and he essentially ruined his campaign in his first debate. It would have been more competitive without Gingrich, sure; iirc Santorum lost Ohio by around 10,000 votes, despite being significantly outspent. But ultimately Santorum wouldn't not have the money or establishment support required to defeat Romney in a three man race (let's assume Ron Paul was the third man).

One thing that perhaps can benefit Bush next year is the guarantee that the conservative vote will be split amongst 2-4 people. Just as Santorum would have won Ohio if not for Gingrich, perhaps someone like Walker will be denied the nomination due to Cruz/Huckabee.

We've heard so much talk about Evangelical insiders/pastors coming together to pick one candidate...yet it has never materialized. They didn't do it in 2012 nor have they done it this year. Walker seems like the obvious choice to me but I have a feeling they'll dither around again and watch as Evangelicals split amongst multiple candidates.

 

[benjipwns]

Santorum had no campaign infrastructure outside of Iowa until after he "won" it, and Gingrich barely had any being propped up by Adelson's money mainly. This is why they both failed to get on Virginia's ballot for example and Gingrich failed to get on Missouri's.

Perry had actually raised more money than Romney and was gathering up a serious campaign apparatus until "oops..." and then it vanished instantly. Which is why the anti-Romney vote swung between all the other candidates from month to month.

Santorum was the last man standing, since Paul was always a non-starter. Remember it had been Gingrich but he flamed out because his entire plan was based around South Carolina and Florida so he ignored Iowa and NH, South Carolina gave him a little wind but it faded as fast as it came when he couldn't win anywhere else and was even getting beat by Paul in the popular votes.

However, NONE of the campaign people, establishment, etc. swung with the polls, after Perry flamed out they basically sat and waited for Romney to brush off the rest rather than throw their lot in with clearly doomed campaigns.

This is one reason why it seemed like the Romney campaign suddenly turned on overnight for the general, because it basically did.

 

[speculawyer]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

I just don't even understand the argument. Either we have a deal that includes inspections so we can monitor the program or we have no deal and they get to do whatever the fuck they want to do. The latter seems like what Iran would really want if they were trying to build a bomb. How does the deal help them get a bomb? Because they'll have more money? It is not like money was an issue if they want to build a bomb.

 

[benjipwns]

Jeb! isn't in a similar position to Romney because he wasn't leading the polls for months before the second stage started. Christie was. (With Rand Paul in second.)

Jeb!'s not going to be able to ride through the first wave of primaries with the bulk of the party infrastructure either behind him or sitting on the wings unless half or more of the candidates drop out before Iowa. (Or someone starts opening up a real lead in the polls.)

 

[Coriolanus]

I just don't even understand the argument.

Y'see, the problem is that you're assuming that he's trying to make an argument. He ain't. He's just telling the base what it wants to hear.

 

[benjipwns]

Just noticed that Kasich has moved past Perry for the coveted 10th spot. 2.2% to 2.0%.

 

[RastaMentality]

Just noticed that Kasich has moved past Perry for the coveted 10th spot. 2.2% to 2.0%.

Who do we say would be the most interesting addition to the debate? Id like for Perry to stay actually.

 

[ivysaur12]

Just noticed that Kasich has moved past Perry for the coveted 10th spot. 2.2% to 2.0%.

Kasich probably needed to be in that debate more than anyone else.

When are they making the final decision on who is in the top 10?

 

[benjipwns]

Carly!

We're already getting Trump, Huckabee, Carson, Cruz and Paul. And a desperate Christie.

Lindsey Graham openly despises Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, so that could be fun.

 

[benjipwns]

So I guess FOX can just pick any five polls they want:

• Must meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and
• Must announce and register a formal campaign for president; and
• Must file all necessary paperwork with the Federal Election Commission (FEC); and
• Must have paid all necessary federal and state filing fees; and
• Must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls, as recognized by FOX News leading up to August 4th at 5 PM/ET. Such polling must be conducted by major, nationally recognized organizations that use standard methodological techniques.

Must meet all U.S. Constitutional requirements; and

Guess Obama's out.

Also, from the press release:

A top five cable network, FNC has been the most-watched news channel in the country for more than 13 years and according to Public Policy Polling, is the most trusted television news source in the country. Owned by 21st Century Fox, FNC is available in more than 90 million homes and dominates the cable news landscape, routinely notching the top ten programs in the genre.

Adding to the announcement, Andy Mitchell, Director, News and Global Media Partnerships at Facebook, said, “Facebook’s scale and foundation in real identity give Fox News and the Republican contenders for the nomination the opportunity to open up the debate to Americans in a new and unique way. FOX News hosts often take to Facebook to connect with viewers authentically; their using Facebook to bring those viewers into this debate demonstrates how the platform has become an essential part of the political process.”

 

[Macho Madness]

"Fuck it, let's just keep going in that direction."

 

[Aaron Strife]

So I guess FOX can just pick any five polls they want:


Guess Obama's out.

Also, from the press release:

They're citing PPP? The irony.

Can't wait for the dozens of PPP copycats with arbitrary conservative leans this cycle. Maybe one of them will use the RRR moniker Ken Cuccinelli used in his hilariously petty press releases slamming PPP's numbers for showing him losing. ("PPP has me down 5? Well Republican Republican Republican Polling has me up 20! Suck it liberals")

 

[ivysaur12]

HuffPo and RCP both have a different top 10: RCP has Paul, Christie, and Kasich as 8, 9, and 10 respectively, while HuffPo has Cruz, Christie, and Perry as 8, 9, and 10. Cruz is 7th in RCP and Paul is 6th in HuffPo, so they're both probably in.

It's really just Kasich v Perry -- Kasich has a lot more to gain than Perry, who already blew his chances in 2012.

 

[NeoXChaos]

They're citing PPP? The irony.

Can't wait for the dozens of PPP copycats with arbitrary conservative leans this cycle. Maybe one of them will use the RRR moniker Ken Cuccinelli used in his hilariously petty press releases slamming PPP's numbers for showing him losing. ("PPP has me down 5? Well Republican Republican Republican Polling has me up 20! Suck it liberals")

We got our boy Nate Silver this cycle. Surely he is more accurate in presidential cycles...right? I used him last cycle. He had great success in 08', 12'.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/?_r=0

 

[Diablos]

His social media team even whipped up a graphic for it today:

Subtle.

They're trying way too hard.

 

[B-Dubs]

We got our boy Nate Silver this cycle. Surely he is more accurate in presidential cycles...right? I used him last cycle. He had great success in 08', 12'.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/fivethirtyeights-2012-forecast/?_r=0

Nate's only accurate if there are a lot of polls. The more polls, the more accurate is he. He'll never be as accurate in the midterms as he can be in the general.

 

[HylianTom]

If Nate is doing numbers, I'll take a look at him and at Sam Wang's stuff.

http://election.princeton.edu/

 

[sangreal]

I completely forgot fiorina and Pataki are running. Chaffee too. Have they even done anything since announcing ?

 

[B-Dubs]

I completely forgot fiorina and Pataki are running. Chaffee too. Have they even done anything since announcing ?

Pataki's running? I thought he was kidding.

 

[Retromelon]

Pataki wishes he could have jindal numbers someday

 

[benjipwns]

I'd be surprised if either Nate or Wong even touches primary numbers until after Iowa at least.

 

[benjipwns]

Chaffee too. Have they even done anything since announcing ?

Betrayed our country:

Let’s join the rest of the world and go metric. It's easy...it doesn't take long before 34 degrees is hot.

 

[sc0la]

Betrayed our country:

Just trying to set the new benchmark for climate change denial. It's only 40 degrees this summer last summer it was 99!

 

[benjipwns]

Just trying to set the new benchmark for climate change denial. It's only 40 degrees this summer last summer it was 99!

brb sending this to my Koch financiers

 

[rocketknight]

There was a really great turnout for Bernie tonight in New Orleans. Something like five thousand people, he said.

 

[benjipwns]

This is American politics.

In the 1840 Election, the William Henry Harrison campaign (Whig) attacked President Martin Van Buren (Democratic) because he took regular baths.

God Bless America.

 

[Jack Remington]

John Quincy Adams used to go for nude morning swims in the Potomac.

We really need a President who will reinstitute this tradition.

 

[kingkitty]

John Quincy Adams used to go for nude morning swims in the Potomac.

We really need a President who will reinstitute this tradition.

even Hillary Clinton?

Bernie Sanders?

 

[makingmusic476]

There was a really great turnout for Bernie tonight in New Orleans. Something like five thousand people, he said.

Yeah, that's what he mentioned during his speech, but I think he based that on pre-rally estimates. A volunteer outside said they were expecting 4-6k, but it looked like they were just shy of the venue's 3700 max attendance. NOLA.com's reporting 4500, and the Advocate is saying an organizer estimated around 4x Jindal's recent 1000, but there were definitely a few dozen empty seats scattered about the top.

Here's a shot my friend took while we were there:

Of course, it was way out in the western most part of the metro area:

I think the UNO's Lakefront Arena would've drawn a larger crowd, but I don't know if that was even an option. I had some friends on the west bank that couldn't be bothered to come, as much as they like the guy, given they'd have had to drive a solid 40 minutes there and 40 minutes back.