• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

Status
Not open for further replies.
Im watching Game Change on Amazon and I actually feel bad for Palin. Im not taking it as a documentary, but shes portrayed as being on the verge of a nervous breakdown for a good portion of the film. And often shown as a complete moron to a comical degree. Everyone around her knows shes killing their chances which makes you feel worse for her. You want her to stop but she keeps getting worse.
 

pigeon

Banned
I just dont get how she is still leading in the polls in the primary and general despite her untrustworthy and favoribilty ratings in the toilet. If she somehow pulls through next year she is teflon incarnate.

This is the era of negative polarization. There are a lot of people (including quite a few in this thread) who are voting against the GOP rather than for Hillary.

In that context, it should not be surprising that even leading candidates maintain low favorability. Favorability is an abstract question that asks you to compare somebody to your ideal politician -- Hillary is going to lose on that front for a lot of people. But Hillary doesn't have to be the best possible President. She just needs to be better than the alternative.

edit: Roland_Gunner makes the same point more succinctly.
 
Jeb Bush is raising way too much money. It's ridiculous and abundantly clear that establishment republicans see him as their only chance of winning the presidency. His super PAC has raised 103 million in 6 months.

I think they are just wasting their money . . . but these donors have plenty of money to burn though.


Between "let's end Medicare", Terry Schiavo, the Bush name, his foreign policy team made up of the very same clowns from the W Bush administration, climate change denial, etc.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
This is the era of negative polarization. There are a lot of people (including quite a few in this thread) who are voting against the GOP rather than for Hillary.

In that context, it should not be surprising that even leading candidates maintain low favorability. Favorability is an abstract question that asks you to compare somebody to your ideal politician -- Hillary is going to lose on that front for a lot of people. But Hillary doesn't have to be the best possible President. She just needs to be better than the alternative.

edit: Roland_Gunner makes the same point more succinctly.

Disqualifying the Republican nominee as an unacceptable alternative is going to be harder for Hillary to do than Obama did to Romney. Obama had the likability factor. I am still 100% behind my girl but I just hope her leadership qualities will overcome how people personally feel about her and "people" meaning the 4-5% true swing voters.
 
Im watching Game Change on Amazon and I actually feel bad for Palin. Im not taking it as a documentary, but shes portrayed as being on the verge of a nervous breakdown for a good portion of the film. And often shown as a complete moron to a comical degree. Everyone around her knows shes killing their chances which makes you feel worse for her. You want her to stop but she keeps getting worse.

Meh. She collected millions from PACs, books, reality TV, Fox News gig. Zero pity. She got paid handsomely to be a clown.

And remember some of those word salad videos that popped up over the past few years? . . . she had no business being on that ticket. And John McCain is a stubborn ass for still refusing to admit that mistake to this day.
 
Im watching Game Change on Amazon and I actually feel bad for Palin. Im not taking it as a documentary, but shes portrayed as being on the verge of a nervous breakdown for a good portion of the film. And often shown as a complete moron to a comical degree. Everyone around her knows shes killing their chances which makes you feel worse for her. You want her to stop but she keeps getting worse.

It's fine to feel a bit of sympathy for 2008 Palin.

But that ship sailed long ago. 2015 Palin can go fuck herself.
 

watershed

Banned
Disqualifying the Republican nominee as an unacceptable alternative is going to be harder for Hillary to do than Obama did to Romney. Obama had the likability factor. I am still 100% behind my girl but I just hope her leadership qualities will overcome how people personally feel about her and "people" meaning the 4-5% true swing voters.

If Hillary and her team are smart, they will use the same strategy Obama used against Romney. Define him early and be consistent. They had Romney as a job cutting, empty suit, you wouldn't vote for your boss candidate well before the republican primary ended. Hillary gave a preview of her Bush attack today in her speech to the Urban League (I think) and you can bet those ideas will be repeated often going forward. She will have ads up against Bush once it's clear he will win. Then it's just never let up time.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
If Hillary and her team are smart, they will use the same strategy Obama used against Romney. Define him early and be consistent. They had Romney as a job cutting, empty suit, you wouldn't vote for your boss candidate well before the republican primary ended. Hillary gave a preview of her Bush attack today in her speech to the Urban League (I think) and you can bet those ideas will be repeated often going forward. She will have ads up against Bush once it's clear he will win. Then it's just never let up time.

I feel like she's been only attacking Bush, even when asked about trump she redirects it into phrasing that indirectly attacks Bush's policies, and not Trumps. I think she rightly thinks he currently is her biggest threat.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
If Hillary and her team are smart, they will use the same strategy Obama used against Romney. Define him early and be consistent. They had Romney as a job cutting, empty suit, you wouldn't vote for your boss candidate well before the republican primary ended. Hillary gave a preview of her Bush attack today in her speech to the Urban League (I think) and you can bet those ideas will be repeated often going forward. She will have ads up against Bush once it's clear he will win. Then it's just never let up time.

Looking back at the Kentucky Senate race between Grimes and McConnell does offer some hope for Hillary IF the wind is at her back next year. McConnell had trash approval ratings all throughout the race but he still won by 16 pts. He disqualified Grimes as an unacceptable alternative, the Republican wave and the D behind her name being toxic in Kentucky.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
I feel like she's been only attacking Bush, even when asked about trump she redirects it into phrasing that indirectly attacks Bush's policies, and not Trumps. I think she rightly thinks he currently is her biggest threat.

but Bush is trying to run a positive campaign. He will use that in the general if he wins the nomination. He will try to look above the fray while Hillary goes negative on him. He will then turnout around and slam her for her dishonesty and trustworthiness. Bush will use positive ads building his favs up.
 

watershed

Banned
Looking back at the Kentucky Senate race between Grimes and McConnell does offer some hope for Hillary IF the wind is at her back next year. McConnell had trash approval ratings all throughout the race but he still won by 16 pts. He disqualified Grimes as an unacceptable alternative, the Republican wave and the D behind her name being toxic in Kentucky.

I don't think Hillary is in a dire contest with Bush at all. She is favored in a head to head match up whether its Bush or Walker. And I think her strategy of pointing out the emptiness of his words is absolutely the right one. Bush is using honeyed words to convey the same old republican approach to everything. Hillary called him out on it today and will do so again. it's the right approach for a candidate in her position (high negatives) versus a candidate who has been out of the spot light for a long time.
 
I feel like she's been only attacking Bush, even when asked about trump she redirects it into phrasing that indirectly attacks Bush's policies, and not Trumps. I think she rightly thinks he currently is her biggest threat.

I feel like part of that is just because she knows that nobody comes out on top of Trump in a mudslinging fight.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I feel like part of that is just because she knows that nobody comes out on top of Trump in a mudslinging fight.

There's also no reason to attack him. He inflicts enough damage on himself as it is. If he does become the candidate he'll have so much self-inflicted damage that he'll implode upon accepting the nomination.
 

pigeon

Banned
Disqualifying the Republican nominee as an unacceptable alternative is going to be harder for Hillary to do than Obama did to Romney.

Not really. The Republican nominee will do it all by themselves. They have to take a position on gay marriage, immigration, abortion, contraception, Obamacare, Iran, marijuana, the economy, the minimum wage, not shutting down the government, whether racism is bad, etc., etc.

The GOP platform positions on all those topics is more or less unpopular. But nobody's going to make it through to become the nominee without adopting or exceeding the party's conventional wisdom on at least a few of them.

Don't be fooled by likability. People vote for policies they like, not people. The media talks about likability because the media is made up of people who actually interact with politicians and care about whether they like them (or, more often, whether they feel liked themselves). Voters talk about issues. The GOP is bad on issues.
 

Bowdz

Member
I don't think Hillary is in a dire contest with Bush at all. She is favored in a head to head match up whether its Bush or Walker. And I think her strategy of pointing out the emptiness of his words is absolutely the right one. Bush is using honeyed words to convey the same old republican approach to everything. Hillary called him out on it today and will do so again. it's the right approach for a candidate in her position (high negatives) versus a candidate who has been out of the spot light for a long time.

Indeed. While I wouldn't discount Jeb's personality in the general (he's likable enough when compared to Hilldawg), I think the Dems absolutely have the advantage in terms of the popularity of their policy proposals and are correct to point out that the GOP, regardless of candidate, is putting forth the exact same policies that they did in 2012. Hilldawg just needs to make a couple of ads splicing George Bush and Jeb Bush together to pin them down on policy/advisors/views and just blanket the airwaves with them. If I were Hillary, my main objective, beyond demonstrating that Jeb has the same policy proposals that Romney had in 2012, would be to make voters relive the George W Bush era and tie Jeb firmly to it. Not only does it remind the voters how shitty the 8 Bush years were, but if it brings up the topic of dynasties and their ramifications, then the Clinton's easily win that argument.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I feel like she's been only attacking Bush, even when asked about trump she redirects it into phrasing that indirectly attacks Bush's policies, and not Trumps. I think she rightly thinks he currently is her biggest threat.
Naw he's like the candyman, if you say his name he comes after you. There is no reason to address him at all unless he were to make it out of the primary. If she doesn't summon him he will keep attacking his republican rivals.
 
Im watching Game Change on Amazon and I actually feel bad for Palin. Im not taking it as a documentary, but shes portrayed as being on the verge of a nervous breakdown for a good portion of the film. And often shown as a complete moron to a comical degree. Everyone around her knows shes killing their chances which makes you feel worse for her. You want her to stop but she keeps getting worse.

You got me to watch Game Change. And I felt she was an asshole. Although a dumb asshole that didn't know how dumb she was.
 
Looking back at the Kentucky Senate race between Grimes and McConnell does offer some hope for Hillary IF the wind is at her back next year. McConnell had trash approval ratings all throughout the race but he still won by 16 pts. He disqualified Grimes as an unacceptable alternative, the Republican wave and the D behind her name being toxic in Kentucky.
Kentucky needs to realize that coal is dead and move on.
 
Oh my word.

Constitutional Economics class. Prof has a post-doctorate in...whatever and is a federal judge.
For some reason just went on a tangent saying that when she wuz in Russia three years ago, the State was promoting religion to the people in order to spread hope. And that Russia's high unemployment (sub 7% for quite a while now) is due to the lack of religious freedom. Also the people were sad and she's pretty sure that that's because they've never been introduced to god.

Like.

What. The. Fuck.

Good thing we get a slip of paper to anonymously grade profs later.

Now gotta try to find a way to make her comment on US politics. #hope
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oh my word.

Constitutional Economics class. Prof has a post-doctorate in...whatever and is a federal judge.
For some reason just went on a tangent saying that when she wuz in Russia three years ago, the State was promoting religion to the people in order to spread hope. And that Russia's high unemployment (sub 7% for quite a while now) is due to the lack of religious freedom. Also the people were sad and she's pretty sure that that's because they've never been introduced to god.

Like.

What. The. Fuck.

Good thing we get a slip of paper to anonymously grade profs later.

Now gotta try to find a way to make her comment on US politics. #hope

Constitutional Economics? The class itself sounds insane.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
NAT-rep.jpg


NAT-dem.jpg


http://www.oann.com/pollnational/
 

dramatis

Member
I wonder how Ben Carson will perform at the debate. Does he really know what he's getting into?
Ben Carson, a Republican who was the sole black candidate to speak here, took a tough-love approach that seemed to inspire little enthusiasm from the crowd. Mr. Carson, a retired neurosurgeon, never mentioned the high-profile deaths of unarmed black men and women in police custody and held himself up as a model of how ambition and education could rescue poor African-Americans from poverty.

He called on black parents to talk to their sons “about how they conduct themselves.”

“If you conduct yourselves in certain ways,” he said, “you are going to run into trouble, not only with law enforcement but with the guy down the block.”

Herman Wallace, an attendee from Kansas City, Mo., was unmoved. “Carson,” he said, “talked about himself.”
Also it's weird to have a Kansas City in Missouri.
 
Im watching Game Change on Amazon and I actually feel bad for Palin. Im not taking it as a documentary, but shes portrayed as being on the verge of a nervous breakdown for a good portion of the film. And often shown as a complete moron to a comical degree. Everyone around her knows shes killing their chances which makes you feel worse for her. You want her to stop but she keeps getting worse.

I remember watching this a couple of years ago and felt the same. Today, Palin can't even form proper sentences; she never recovered.
 
Off the top of your head, can anyone make a quick list of things Krugman has been right about? A lot of liberals like to give him credit for accurately predicting a lot of things from around 2009 onwards, but I can't remember specifics.

Black Mamba, I know you know this.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Biden is not running. He is going to get destroyed by Hillary if he does. Does he really want to go out a loser?

The No. 1 thing voters want is a candidate who is honest and trustworthy, and the veep is leading in those polls,” said William Pierce, executive director of Draft Biden, a “super PAC” that is trying to build enthusiasm for his possible candidacy.

Biden's favorables will plummet the moment he is in the spotlight like Clinton.
 
i could see black turnout decrease in the general election

If Obama and Bill are heavily campaigning, then the turnout could stay about the same. Obama will still be the key for Dems to take the White House for a third year. I'm more interested in the turnout for women and Hispanics. I also wonder if the turnout for white males will continue to drop, or will it slightly pick up for Hillary.
 
He has the momentum of a runaway freight train.

Why is he so popular?
Because he tells it like it is! Studying Mark Cuban's comments about Trump pretty much embodies the spirit of people that are supporting him. He tells it like it is, shoots from the hip instantly if anyone challenges him, is an outsider to the political machine and hates the Mexicans. All he needs to do is to scaremonger about Islam and he will solidify his runaway lead into an unbeatable lead past South Carolina.
 

Aureon

Please do not let me serve on a jury. I am actually a crazy person.
So, Trump is REALLY happening, or we're still convinced he'll somehow fall to something?
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
So, Trump is REALLY happening, or we're still convinced he'll somehow fall to something?

If he's not dropping now he's never going to drop. Only question left is how low his ceiling is.

If spoiling open primaries is really a thing, I can't imagine a better scenario for it.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
"Your state is a pile of shit." is exactly the kind of criticism everyone should be leveling towards Walker. Minnesota and Wisconsin are not all that different demographically or culturally. They're two of the most similar states in the country to be honest. Yet Minnesota is doing well while Wisconsin has done nothing but flounder under Walker's leadership. The political contrast between the two states is like night and day. It's clear that Walker is a terrible governor, so why the hell should he be given the national equivalent of that state position?

I'm amazed more Republicans DON'T bring this up

1. Is this correct Aaron?
2. If Emmer had won in 2010, could your state be in a similar position as WI? I guess it depends if your legislature went R with Emmer winning as WI did.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
So, Trump is REALLY happening, or we're still convinced he'll somehow fall to something?

I don't know. What I do know is that Trump doesn't seem to be just in it for the exposure, like I thought he was. Originally I thought he was just another attention-grabber like 2012's clown car (including Trump himself) but...I think he's actually going for it. He really wants to be president.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
1. Is this correct Aaron?
2. If Emmer had won in 2010, could your state be in a similar position as WI? I guess it depends if your legislature went R with Emmer winning as WI did.

As someone who was raised in Wisconsin and who has lived in Minnesota for the last 5 years, yeah, they're very similar in a lot of respects. The primary difference is that the Minneapolis-St. Paul area is super liberal compared to the rest of both states (except maybe Madison) Population distributions are very close in terms of median income, race breakdown. Their economies are both heavily agribusiness.

Basically the difference is that in 2011 Minnesota elected progressive Dayton and Wisconsin elected... Walker
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom