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[B-Dubs]

Meh, Iowa is for true believers, not for electoral viability.

Yea, but if he can perform in New Hampshire, where's he's in first in 2 out of 4 polls right now, then he's going to be on a roll.

 

[Aaron Strife]

As someone who was raised in Wisconsin and who has lived in Minnesota for the last 5 years, yeah, they're very similar in a lot of respects. The primary difference is that the Minneapolis-St. Paul area is super liberal compared to the rest of both states (except maybe Madison) Population distributions are very close in terms of median income, race breakdown. Their economies are both heavily agribusiness.

Basically the difference is that in 2011 Minnesota elected progressive Dayton and Wisconsin elected... Walker

What he said. I would say Minnesota is slightly more liberal, and the Twin Cities have grown in size large enough that they can outvote the rest of the state whereas Wisconsin Democrats still have to pander to the rural communities a bit to win. Feingold for example has staked out some conservative positions in relations to gun control and hunting.

Dayton and Franken basically ignored rural communities in their re-election bids last year and won easily regardless, although this came at the expense of the DFL losing their House majority.

If Emmer had won in 2010, which he came very close to, we would probably be in a very similar position as Wisconsin. I don't think he would have been re-elected, but the GOP would have had a trifecta and gerrymandered the legislative maps to keep themselves in power and probably save Chip Cravaack's Congressional seat. Gay marriage wouldn't have happened when it did, voter ID would have been passed (the legislative Republicans put a constitutional amendment on the ballot to pass this in 2012, it lost easily), I'm sure there would be similar union busting like we saw in Wisconsin, Medicaid expansion a no-go, same Dayton's various investments into education and healthcare, etc.

Just comparing Dayton to Walker, while Wisconsin's economy isn't bad (4.6% unemployment) Minnesota's is better (3.9%) and Walker blew up the budget whereas Dayton has been running rather large surpluses for years. That old political cartoon comparing Reagan/Bush/Bush II ("Fiscal Conservatives") to Clinton ("Tax n' spend liberal") applies well here.

 

[eBay Huckster]

That old political cartoon comparing Reagan/Bush/Bush II ("Fiscal Conservatives") to Clinton ("Tax n' spend liberal") applies well here.

And unlike that cartoon's original subject, given that we're talking about subnational entities, it's actually accurate here!

 

[Retromelon]

Cartoons have no room for nuance. Hw's budget deal was a major factor in clinton's surplus, but he is merely another face on the republican failure list

 

[Coriolanus]

Cartoons have no room for nuance.

Onion's political cartoons are often excellent, and perfectly able to trip people up.

 

[Jack Remington]

Trump just has to keep it going until February. I want to believe.

 

[Retromelon]

Onion's political cartoons are often excellent, and perfectly able to trip people up.

Are those the ones with the weeping statue of liberty in every panel? I love those

 

[Plinko]

In a strange way I worry more about Walker than Bush in a general. He has more unknowns, less baggage, and some kind of charisma/blank-slate-face that has allowed him to sell his record in Wisconsin as a successful one (that amazes me more than anything). I think Bush has a better campaign infrastructure for a successful general election run, but Walker is seemingly a good retail candidate and looks fresher against Hillary. Walker reminds me of W Bush in 2000.

Except Bush had a WAY better record than Walker has. Walker has nothing to stand on in a general election.

Anti-union. Anti-education. Anti-minimum wage. Pro-war. I don't see much there that would attract non-republican voters.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Except Bush had a WAY better record than Walker has. Walker has nothing to stand on in a general election.

Anti-union. Anti-education. Anti-minimum wage. Pro-war. I don't see much there that would attract non-republican voters.

Every time we discuss Walker you bring up the general election, which has nothing to do with why Walker can and probably will win the nomination. He has the most appealing record of any republican running for president, from a conservative point of view. He is not marred by immigration like Perry or by moderate elitism like Bush. Unlike the senators running he has actually implemented policies that the majority of republicans support. And unlike the senators running he has defeated democrats state-wide in a blue state. Yes, we know there's an asterisk to that...but no one on the right is talking about that.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Except Bush had a WAY better record than Walker has. Walker has nothing to stand on in a general election.

Anti-union. Anti-education. Anti-minimum wage. Pro-war. I don't see much there that would attract non-republican voters.

Walker will eche sketch his way into the general and pretend that whatever he said in the primary was a lie created by the media. The fear behind Walker for me at least is he may energize conservatives while Democrats sit on their hands thinking Walker will be steamrolled without any effort like in Walkers 3 elections back home. I agree with PD on Walker as a serious threat. People in this country are fawning over Trump of all people. Walker should NOT be underestimated Plinko.

 

[B-Dubs]

Walker will eche sketch his way into the general and pretend that whatever he said in the primary was a lie created by the media. The fear behind Walker for me at least is he may energize conservatives while Democrats sit on their hands thinking Walker will be steamrolled without any effort like in Walkers 3 elections back home.

You say his record and what he's said will be etch-a-sketched by the media but everyone said that about Romney but it didn't happen there either. The internet just doesn't allow that to happen anymore.

 

[Plinko]

Every time we discuss Walker you bring up the general election, which has nothing to do with why Walker can and probably will win the nomination. He has the most appealing record of any republican running for president, from a conservative point of view. He is not marred by immigration like Perry or by moderate elitism like Bush. Unlike the senators running he has actually implemented policies that the majority of republicans support. And unlike the senators running he has defeated democrats state-wide in a blue state. Yes, we know there's an asterisk to that...but no one on the right is talking about that.

Are you kidding me right now? Look at the post I quoted!

We were talking about the GENERAL ELECTION. The entire quoted post was about the general election. The entire thing. Read it. You had nothing to do with the conversation.

Here it is again, PD:

In a strange way I worry more about Walker than Bush in a general. He has more unknowns, less baggage, and some kind of charisma/blank-slate-face that has allowed him to sell his record in Wisconsin as a successful one (that amazes me more than anything). I think Bush has a better campaign infrastructure for a successful general election run, but Walker is seemingly a good retail candidate and looks fresher against Hillary. Walker reminds me of W Bush in 2000.

Please, by all means, PD--tell me where this was about the primaries.

Walker will eche sketch his way into the general and pretend that whatever he said in the primary was a lie created by the media. The fear behind Walker for me at least is he may energize conservatives while Democrats sit on their hands thinking Walker will be steamrolled without any effort like in Walkers 3 elections back home. I agree with PD on Walker as a serious threat. People in this country are fawning over Trump of all people. Walker should NOT be underestimated Plinko.

I don't "understimate" him. But notice what you say--people are fawning over Trump. They're fawning over him because he is anti-establishment. They like that he's not a lifetime politician. They like that he isn't beholden to lobbyists. People aren't fawning over Walker, a guy who doesn't fit any of those descriptions at all.

 

[Retromelon]

O snap

 

[NeoXChaos]

Once Republican primary voters know about Trump's liberal record as I stated many times before he is finished. Walker will benefit once the spotlight of Trump fades. I could be wrong and that does not end up happening.

The scenario will look like this:

Sometime between now and voting, Walker, Bush and co. will run negative ads attacking Trump as a Democrat in sheeps clothing. Trump will fire back with some ads but mostly with media attention. He will be trounced soon after in IA and NH. The damage will be too great for him to overcome.

 

[Plinko]

Once Republican primary voters know about Trump's liberal record as I stated many times before he is finished. Walker will benefit once the spotlight of Trump fades. I could be wrong and that does not end up happening.

The scenario will look like this:

Sometime between now and voting, Walker, Bush and co. will run negative ads attacking Trump as a Democrat in sheeps clothing. Trump will fire back not with ads but with media attention. He will be trounced soon after in IA and NH.

Except we just had a poll a couple weeks ago that said Bush would get the vast majority of Trump's votes should he falter.

 

[B-Dubs]

Except we just had a poll a couple weeks ago that said Bush would get the vast majority of Trump's votes should he falter.

Yep, Walker's profile isn't large enough to take Trump's voters when he falls. If Walker wants Trump's voters he needs to make himself into what Jeb is, the inevitable nominee.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I figured Walker would get Trump votes but I guess not. I figured Republicans would go with their heart but I guess the establishment wants them to go with their heads.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Damn if I am reading the NY Times campaign money article right; the disparity between Super Pac money raised vs. campaign/candidate money raised for Jeb is insane (compared to Hillary and everyone else).

Jebs Pacs = 108.5m, Candidate/campaign = 11.4m

Hillary's Pacs = 20.3m, Candidate/campaign = 47.5m

 

[PhoenixDark]

Are you kidding me right now? Look at the post I quoted!

We were talking about the GENERAL ELECTION. The entire quoted post was about the general election. The entire thing. Read it. You had nothing to do with the conversation.

Here it is again, PD:



Please, by all means--tell me where this was about the primaries.

Oh my bad. I kinda hit auto post there. Gotta defend my man.

I will say this about general elections. There are a couple things that intrigue me about a Walker v Hillary race. The first would is what I'd expect to be a historical gender gap. The second is that I think Walker would run the type of noxious campaign that would have won a general election in just about any year except for 2008 and 2012 (and 2016...). Jeb Bush waded into racial issues recently, criticizing BLM and similar groups; if the moderate is making obvious appeals to white resentment then I can only imagine what a Walker type would do. I genuinely think he'd run a Nixon-esque campaign on law and order and really attempt to run the score up on the white vote.

 

[Plinko]

Damn if I am reading the NY Times campaign money article the disparity between Super Pac money raised vs. campaign/candidate for Jeb is insane - compared to Hillary and everyone else.

As many of us have said from the beginning, he is the establishment guy. He is this cycle's Romney. He's the most electable of the bunch by far. He's likable. He has a good record. In a normal cycle, he would be the guy who gets the nomination.

However, one thing is different this time--Trump. He's a wildcard like we've never seen before. He's got the money to actually do this. He's a known commodity. He even could run as an independent, something we knew flash-in-the-pan guys like Cain wouldn't do. Plus, he's already said a ton of stupid things and his popularity is GROWING. It's crazy.

 

[speculawyer]

Every time we discuss Walker you bring up the general election, which has nothing to do with why Walker can and probably will win the nomination. He has the most appealing record of any republican running for president, from a conservative point of view. He is not marred by immigration like Perry or by moderate elitism like Bush. Unlike the senators running he has actually implemented policies that the majority of republicans support. And unlike the senators running he has defeated democrats state-wide in a blue state. Yes, we know there's an asterisk to that...but no one on the right is talking about that.

But Walker is a doofus. I predict he says something stupid eventually that causes him to implode.

 

[B-Dubs]

But Walker is a doofus. I predict he says something stupid eventually that causes him to implode.

Eventually? I expect a Rick Perry-style flame out in this debate.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Eventually? I expect a Rick Perry-style flame out in this debate.

It will be glorious to watch really.

 

[speculawyer]

Damn if I am reading the NY Times campaign money article the disparity between Super Pac money raised vs. campaign/candidate money raised for Jeb is insane - compared to Hillary and everyone else.

Jebs Pacs = 108.5m, Candidate/campaign = 11.4m

Hillary's Pacs = 20.3m, Candidate/campaign = 47.5m

Dat Citizens United.

 

[B-Dubs]

Dat Citizens United.

Not only that, but Trump's scared the shit out of the establishment.

 

[GnawtyDog]

As many of us have said from the beginning, he is the establishment guy. He is this cycle's Romney. He's the most electable of the bunch by far. He's likable. He has a good record. In a normal cycle, he would be the guy who gets the nomination.

Kinda funny the GOP will pick Jeb of all people. Fox's attitude towards him as the year progresses will be funny to watch.

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't really think trump has any real shot at this.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Walker on facing Biden or Clinton:

“I’d love to have the opportunity whether it’s Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden or anyone else. To me, it doesn’t matter. It’s a third term of Barack Obama’s policies. They’ve been a huge failure for this country. I’d love to put my record up against that any day,” Walker said, adding, “I think having a new, fresh face to take on whichever face from the past we take on is important.”

On Trump:

“But he basically used the talking points that the Democrats used over the last four years. As many of you know, three times we won because those points aren’t accurate,” Walker said.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/...ng-clinton-or-biden-120900.html#ixzz3hcZjq5fV

 

[demon]

It’s a third term of Barack Obama’s policies. They’ve been a huge failure for this country. I’d love to put my record up against that any day,”

yeah you do that.

 

[Plinko]

yeah you do that.

Yeah, I don't get that at all. Wisconsin's economy is stagnant compared to surrounding areas and he turned a huge surplus into a huge deficit.

 

[The Technomancer]

I don't really think trump has any real shot at this.

Let me enjoy this dream for just a bit longer :/

 

[watershed]

Campaign season results in the dumbest fuckin' articles being written.

 

[RustyNails]

Cartoons have no room for nuance. Hw's budget deal was a major factor in clinton's surplus, but he is merely another face on the republican failure list

Not quite. Clinton himself struck a bargain with not so crazy non Gingrichites that affected the middle class but balanced the budget.

 

[Retromelon]

There is room for more than one factor. I merely protest the incompetent republican vibe given off by the image.
I have a soft spot for hw

 

[sc0la]

There is room for more than one factor. I merely protest the incompetent republican vibe given off by the image.
I have a soft spot for hw

For sure, HW was the last good center right president until Obama.

 

[Black Republican]

I don't really think trump has any real shot at this.

he doesnt, plus with that koch money backing bush, trump wont be getting to the general election

 

[Farmboy]

For sure, HW was the last good center right president until Obama.

I understand calling Obama center right, but what about Clinton?

I'm in two minds about Trump's chances. If Iowa and New Hampshire were next week, he would possibly win both and ride Trumpmentum to the nomination. But they're not, and I do think fatigue will set in (heck, perhaps Trump himself will get bored). Possibly as soon as the day after the debate.

Still, the fact that he is the undisputed front-runner now is pretty unbelievable. I certainly wouldn't have guessed it after his announcement speech. So really, all bets are off.

 

[Plinko]

he doesnt, plus with that koch money backing bush, trump wont be getting to the general election

Koch's are actually supporting Walker, or at least have already for a time.

Their money doesn't matter a ton, though, as they also supported a loser last election, too (can't remember who exactly at this point, but it wasn't Romney).

 

[lednerg]

In 2011, the lead in the GOP polls was swapping between Huckabee, Cain, and Perry for a while. Trump's current popularity just isn't all that important. It's more of a name recognition thing at this point.

 

[Plinko]

In 2011, the lead in the GOP polls was swapping between Huckabee, Cain, and Perry for a while. Trump's current popularity just isn't all that important. It's more of a name recognition thing at this point.

Except Trump has name recognition and already said terribly stupid things to have his ratings only increase. The moment any of those three gaffed last time, they were done.

I still think Jeb! gets the nom, but Trump isn't Average Joe GOP Candidate. He's a different case altogether.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Maureen Dowd was the source of the Biden running story?


lolololol

 

[Retromelon]

Bushwhacked was another book i read instead of going to class. Maureen dowd seemed batshit and overly given to personal invective.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The best thing she ever wrote was when she ate a pot candybar, had a panic attack and wrote about it

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/04/opinion/dowd-dont-harsh-our-mellow-dude.html?_r=0

 

[Black Republican]

what red states do you see Hillary winning in the GE that Obama couldnt? maybe NC again?

 

[NYCmetsfan]

what red states do you see Hillary winning in the GE that Obama couldnt? maybe NC again?

NC is the only red state but I think she's likely to win by a smaller margin in the EC than Obama. I can see her actually wining by a bigger margin in the popular vote though.

 

[Retromelon]

Hahaha she got cotton mouthed

 

[HylianTom]

day-ummmm..

 

[Plinko]

day-ummmm..

:lol :lol :lol

This guy is fantastic. The best thing to happen to the primaries in decades. This type of stuff is why he's popular, too.

 

[Wilsongt]

#hotgaystove

Because gay couples wouldn’t be able to reproduce while stranded on a remote island, they should not be allowed to legally marry and receive the same state benefits. So goes the logic according to Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX).

According to audio posted by Right Wing Watch, the staunchly social conservative lawmaker declared at an Eagle Forum event in Washington, D.C., last week that several Supreme Court justices ought to be impeached because of their participation in legalizing same-sex marriage, “forget[ting] what Jesus said God said” about such relationships.

We could take four heterosexual couples, married, and put them on an island where they have everything they need to sustain life. Then take four all-male couples and put them on an island with all they need to sustain life, take four couples of women, married, and put them on an island, and let’s come back in 100 to 200 years and see which one nature says is the preferred marriage.

http://www.mediaite.com/online/gohm...-remote-island-proving-gay-marriage-is-wrong/

Founder's effect of natural selection, though I highly doubt he understands that idea. Also, note how all of the other couples are married, except the men.

 

[Bowdz]

day-ummmm..

So, what is the likelihood that Biden hops into the race? Dowd was the chief instigator of the story, so I'm taking it with a grain of salt, but I could definitely see Biden hopping in. Also, what are the chances that he will go far in the nomination considering he is more than a quarter behind in fundraising and setting up campaign apparatus?