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[PhoenixDark]

Trump could do awful in the debate and change the course of everything for all we know.

It is too soon for the Trump has moved beyond the flavor of the month movement to take hold, we need to at least get through the first debate.

Chris Wallace will be asking some of the questions. I fully expect him to ambush Trump with his past comments on abortion, gay marriage, or Reagan. Trump should be able to attack the media like Gingrich did in 2012, but that's a game of diminishing returns. Eventually the damage will stick.

No one else wants to take the bet? I see Pigeon suggesting Trump could win if he does xyz. He won't win a single contest, fellas.

 

[RDreamer]

Trump would just brush any criticism like that aside and say he's either had a come to Jesus moment due to Obama's presidency or he'd just attack everyone else and make them look even dumber. So long as he keeps that bravado he'll be fine, his campaign is a cult of personality not one of ideas.

Then there's still the scenario that at some point there are going to be a lot more 'not Trumps' in the race. It'll depend on where a lot of these other votes go and why they're not Trump votes right now.

Basically, if the slightly more logical GOP starts to outnumber the craziest portion just because the vote is no longer quite as split, he'll have a rougher time there, too.

 

[B-Dubs]

Chris Wallace will be asking some of the questions. I fully expect him to ambush Trump with his past comments on abortion, gay marriage, or Reagan. Trump should be able to attack the media like Gingrich did in 2012, but that's a game of diminishing returns. Eventually the damage will stick.

No one else wants to take the bet? I see Pigeon suggesting Trump could win if he does xyz. He won't win a single contest, fellas.

No way does Trump die because of that, it'll take more than that. His campaign is built on bravado and swagger, so long as he doesn't lose those he won't die. There's plenty of easy ways around those attacks.

If anything, Walker needs to be more careful than anyone else. Trump sucked up all the oxygen Walker was going to use to introduce himself to the nation. As a result, if Walker screws up even once he becomes this cycle's Rick Perry.

Then there's still the scenario that at some point there are going to be a lot more 'not Trumps' in the race. It'll depend on where a lot of these other votes go and why they're not Trump votes right now.

Basically, if the slightly more logical GOP starts to outnumber the craziest portion just because the vote is no longer quite as split, he'll have a rougher time there, too.

This is true and is what I think will kill him in the end. Trump's already got the far right, now he needs to make his way to the center. If he's smart enough to do it, and positions himself well enough, he could win but I seriously doubt he's that smart or is thinking that far ahead.

 

[Black Mamba]

the abortion topic will not harm him. He has already said he has "evolved" ala Obama on the topic. Nobody will care that in the past he was pro-choice so long as he is pro-life now. That's no different than many conservatives.

Every single person up on that debate will have almost the exact same abortion position. Only a few will differentiate by no wanting exemption for rape, incest, and health of mother. And that's like Huckabee who is irrelevant.

The abortion topic will mean nothing in the debate.

 

[Oblivion]

I feel like the "flavor of the month" candidates last go-round were as popular even longer, though.

It was a good while ago, but I feel like my man the Cain Train flamed out REALLY quickly. Like within 2 weeks he gave that disastrous interview about Libya. Same thing with Santorum.

 

[Black Mamba]

Also, trump doesn't support same-sex marriage publicly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/07/donald-trump-gay-marriage-not-my-thing_n_2637646.html

That issue is irrelevant.

Honestly, I only see the ACA potentially tripping him up. Or him saying something really stupid and demeaning to someone else on the stage.

 

[B-Dubs]

It was a good while ago, but I feel like my man the Cain Train flamed out REALLY quickly. Like within 2 weeks he gave that disastrous interview about Libya. Same thing with Santorum.

Yea, the flavor of the month guys last go around flamed out almost as soon as the media spotlight shone on them. They were like a bunch of conservative vampires. They all had a, sort of, bell curve to their numbers. They'd start off low, get really high until they hit a peak, then slope back down as the voters went to the next shiny. Part of why it happened was they all had ideas about stuff. Cain had 999, Santorum had that blue collar stuff, and so one and so forth. Trump doesn't have that problem, he has no ideas, just bravado, so he's not dying in the same manner that killed Cain and the others. He's staying popular because the thing that attracted all those voters, his insane personality, is intact. He has no ideas to prove are bullshit.

 

[Cheebo]

It was a good while ago, but I feel like my man the Cain Train flamed out REALLY quickly. Like within 2 weeks he gave that disastrous interview about Libya. Same thing with Santorum.

Saw a article earlier today that showed both Gingrich and Perry's flash in the pan moment lasted multiple months. Trump's so far has been 3 weeks.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

I think many of the Republicans on the stage will be people who have, at one time or another, held an view that isn't in line with the views of the primary voter. So if Trump gets attacked on his past liberal views, it seems that he could very easily brush it off with "So I said some things 20 years ago? I don't believe it now! Meanwhile Bush supported amnesty as recently as last year!" Or whatever. Anyone who has ever moderated on their views can't raise that attack against Trump, and as long as some of them are on the stage with him, he can deflect that attack from anyone else if he's smart about it.

 

[Black Mamba]

Jeb just now, inartfully? "I’m not sure we need half a billion dollars for women’s health issues."

The general is going to be so much ads against the GOP and their stances on women's issues. Good god.

 

[NeoXChaos]

1. If they won't accept a RINO like Jeb, They surely won't accept Trump who has past recorded statements supporting liberal policies. The negative ads will KILL him. Jeb will see to it that it does.

2. In terms of the debate, Trump will do well and continue his lead into the debate in September but as we get closer to IA and NH he willl not be able to substain his combative attitude and coverage. The voters who do support him will eventually want substantive answers and not "disaster, "terrible", border". He needs specific policy stances and I do not see him ever giving any.

3. Jeb is probably guaranteed atleast 40% of the Women vote no matter what he says on women.

 

[Oblivion]

Saw a article earlier today that showed both Gingrich and Perry's flash in the pan moment lasted multiple months. Trump's so far has been 3 weeks.

Got a link to that? Really skeptical that Newt lasted "months" being popular. And Perry wasn't a flash in the pan though. He was considered the perfect alternative to Romney as he had a successful governorship, while keeping his conservative bona fides. He was doing great until he fucked everything up with that immigration comment.

 

[Y2Kev]

The debate is one area where I think Trump SHOULD be expected to perform well. He's a showman first and a politician second; he has eight minutes to showboat. I can't see how he doesn't do well unless the entire stage + the moderator gangs up on him, which is possible.

 

[gcubed]

On the topic of favorables...



CBS news poll:

GOP nominee: Trump 24%, Jeb 13%, Walker 10%
GOP nominee you would be most dissatisfied with: Trump 27%, Jeb 18%
GOP nominee with best chance of winning the general: Trump 26%, Jeb 23%, Walker 8%
Trump favorables among GOP: 47% fav, 37% unfav, 16% unsure
Jeb favorables among GOP: 47% fav, 22% unfav, 31% unsure
Walker favorables among GOP: 37% fav, 4% unfav, 45% unsure

FOX news poll:

GOP nominee: Trump 26%, Jeb 15%, Walker 9%
GOP nominee second choice: Jeb 14%, Trump 12%, Walker 10%
GOP nominee if every Jeb voter switched to their second choice: Trump 28%, Walker 9%, Carson 8%
Trump "voting favorability" for GOP nomination: 34% definitely vote for, 22% might vote for, 33% never vote for (up from 8% definitely, 15% might, 59% never in May-June)

Trump isn't just winning in the polls temporarily. He's the most popular candidate in the Republican Party. He is within a few good debate zingers of being the next Republican candidate for President of the United States of America.

and its glorious

 

[Cheebo]

Got a link to that? Really skeptical that Newt lasted "months" being popular. And Perry wasn't a flash in the pan though. He was considered the perfect alternative to Romney as he had a successful governorship, while keeping his conservative bona fides. He was doing great until he fucked everything up with that immigration comment.

Found it:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-very-weird-but-not-unprecedented-two-months/

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Found it:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-very-weird-but-not-unprecedented-two-months/

That's fascinating. So by the end of August we should know if Trump is going to have staying power or not.

 

[speculawyer]

That extension makes it seems like slightly different Trumps get different numbers.

CBS news poll:

GOP nominee: Donald "Please don't feel so stupid or insecure" Trump 24%, Jeb 13%, Walker 10%
GOP nominee you would be most dissatisfied with: Donald "All of the women on The Apprentice flirted with me" Trump 27%, Jeb 18%
GOP nominee with best chance of winning the general: Donald "Some, I assume, are good people" Trump 26%, Jeb 23%, Walker 8%
Donald "When was the last time you saw a Chevrolet in Tokyo?" Trump favorables among GOP: 47% fav, 37% unfav, 16% unsure
Jeb favorables among GOP: 47% fav, 22% unfav, 31% unsure
Walker favorables among GOP: 37% fav, 4% unfav, 45% unsure

FOX news poll:

GOP nominee: Donald "I'm starting to wonder myself whether he was born in this country" Trump 26%, Jeb 15%, Walker 9%
GOP nominee second choice: Jeb 14%, Donald "We need global warming" Trump 12%, Walker 10%
GOP nominee if every Jeb voter switched to their second choice: Donald "@BetteMidler is an extremely unattractive woman" Trump 28%, Walker 9%, Carson 8%
Donald "I am the only person who immediately walked out of my 'Ali G' interview" Trump "voting favorability" for GOP nomination: 34% definitely vote for, 22% might vote for, 33% never vote for (up from 8% definitely, 15% might, 59% never in May-June)

Donald "I think I am a nice person" Trump isn't just winning in the polls temporarily. He's the most popular candidate in the Republican Party. He is within a few good debate zingers of being the next Republican candidate for President of the United States of America.

 

[Y2Kev]

I think the chart is a little misleading because of the comparison between cycles. Keeping a +3 lead is much harder in this field considering the number of candidates running. If Trump stays around the leader for a while I think that's really good (for him).

 

[NYCmetsfan]

image not working

 

[watershed]

I'm of the belief that Trump won't win a single primary but he is staffing up for a more traditional campaign lately. Still, his high won't last and I think many candidates are going to use the debates to show how thin Trump's appeal is. He has no substance and as the primary gets on, this will begin to show. The media is riding with him right now but once the attacks start, they will be all over it 24/7.

 

[B-Dubs]

I'm of the belief that Trump won't win a single primary but he is staffing up for a more traditional campaign lately. Still, his high won't last and I think many candidates are going to use the debates to show how thin Trump's appeal is. He has no substance and as the primary gets on, this will begin to show. The media is riding with him right now but once the attacks start, they will be all over it 24/7.

The media has been attacking him. While the GOP brass is too afraid of a third-party challenge from Trump to force him out with attacks. Not only that, but it would solidify is status as an outsider and that will only make him stronger.

 

[RustyNails]

Found it:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-very-weird-but-not-unprecedented-two-months/

Flavor of the week is not gonna parallel Trumpmentum. Mostly because Trump has billions in cash and the fact that all the candidates already threw their hats in. IIRC, the flavor of the week stuff happened as the candidates enteres. As they deflated on the stage (Perry and Newt) or had sexual allegations destroy them (Cain), their star went down too. They did not have the capacity to stay afloat after those disasters. The only reason why Santorum Spreading happened is because he was the anti-Romney. The teapers rided the Spreading as far as they did because everyone else was an unmitigated disaster. Trump will last until he either gets destroyed on stage or off. Frankly, no one sees that happening. I dont think any GOP candidate is that dumb to attack The Donald. Maybe Marco will.

 

[thepotatoman]

GOP nominee with best chance of winning the general: Trump 26%, Jeb 23%, Walker 8%

lol, just perfect. I wonder if Republicans and people in general are conditioned to not believe polls in this world of overly covered outliers and unskewers constantly being wrong.

Found it:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-very-weird-but-not-unprecedented-two-months/

That's interesting. Gingrich seems to be the best comparison I've seen so far.

Trump seems media savvy enough in his own way to not pull a Perry in the debates, but I could see the incoming flood of negative advertisements maybe being too much for him. I guess it depends on if his anti-establishment positioning will protect him from attacks from the distrusted establishment, or if his supporters are the type to be persuaded by that type of attack.

 

[Black Mamba]

All this talk about Trump imploding but man, Jeb! is a terrible candidate.

It's just as bad in context.

He's had more gaffes than anyone so far. He'll walk this one back too.

And people consider him the "smart" brother? W. knew how to run a campaign. Jeb! does not.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I was just about to post that. Another case of him thinking out loud, amending his statements with comments that just sound off. Say what you will about Obama, he's pretty good at thinking as he speaks and speaking carefully. Bush is horrible.

 

[pigeon]

Chris Wallace will be asking some of the questions. I fully expect him to ambush Trump with his past comments on abortion, gay marriage, or Reagan. Trump should be able to attack the media like Gingrich did in 2012, but that's a game of diminishing returns. Eventually the damage will stick.

No one else wants to take the bet? I see Pigeon suggesting Trump could win if he does xyz. He won't win a single contest, fellas.

I'm not saying Trump "could win if he does xyz." Like I said, I am open to the possibility that a short sharp shock will knock Trump out of the race. I just don't see what it could be. You seem to think it'll be that he's a RINO, I guess? That strikes me as a pretty easy attack to deflect -- I mean, they nominated Mitt Romney last time. All you have to do is say you changed your mind. But Trump isn't any other candidate, so I guess anything is possible.

The media has been attacking him. While the GOP brass is too afraid of a third-party challenge from Trump to force him out with attacks. Not only that, but it would solidify is status as an outsider and that will only make him stronger.

Yeah, I don't get why people are saying the media's been nice to him. What story was the bigger puff piece, the one about him hating babies and breast milk or the one about him raping his ex-wife? There's been a whole stream of stories in the genre of "I guess Trump left himself open for this, so here's the worst thing we heard about him." Like, what are they going to print when they decide to really attack him?

The voters who do support him will eventually want substantive answers and not "disaster, "terrible", border". He needs specific policy stances and I do not see him ever giving any.

This is a huge misreading of the electorate. If substantive policy suggestions were required for the GOP nomination none of the current candidates would qualify. Again, guys, Mitt Romney got nominated. His plan was to grow the economy by Presidenting good, and make America strong by not apologizing. Jeb Bush is proposing 4% annual growth because 4% is a nice round number! The GOP is allergic to real policy ideas. Trump is too! It's a match made on Celebrity Apprentice.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

LOL Jeb already trying to walk back his womens health funding statement.

This is what the 3-4th statement where he "spoke inarticulately?"

He'll walk this one back too.

And people consider him the "smart" brother? W. knew how to run a campaign. Jeb! does not.

And done https://jeb2016.com/statement-federal-funding-planned-parenthood/?lang=en

 

[Kusagari]

The most amazing thing in these polls continues to be Carson holding steady behind Trump, Jeb! and Walker.

How did every other single Tea Party favorite collapse in the face of Trump while he stood steady? He built that loyal a base?

 

[Wilsongt]

Hahahahahahahahahahaha

http://www.mediaite.com/online/ted-cruzs-website-accidentally-links-to-gigantic-ass-picture/

Ted Cruz‘s anti-Iran deal website accidentally links to a Twitter account featuring a picture of a giant ass, and it isn’t Donald Trump.

StopTheIranDeal.com features a list of the email, Twitter, and phone numbers of every U.S. Senator for concerned citizens to contact. But Cruz’s site didn’t link to the Twitter account for Washington Senator Maria Cantwell, @SenatorCantwell. Instead, it linked to @CantwellPress, a Twitter account whose description reads, “This open twitter account for your most wanted porn material film star.”

The cover image for the account is, well, a giant ass.

 

[Wilsongt]

LOL Jeb already trying to walk back his womens health funding statement.

This is what the 3-4th statement where he "spoke inarticulately?"



And done https://jeb2016.com/statement-federal-funding-planned-parenthood/?lang=en

Uh... Wow.

Looks like Jeb! is trying to be all hip with the interwebs.

wat
Looks like you're having a little trouble with the Nets.
Click here to go back to the home page.

 

[BertramCooper]

It's kind of remarkable how Jeb!, who is obviously much smarter than his brother, is so much worse of a politician.

 

[thepotatoman]

LOL Jeb already trying to walk back his womens health funding statement.

This is what the 3-4th statement where he "spoke inarticulately?"



And done https://jeb2016.com/statement-federal-funding-planned-parenthood/?lang=en

The link goes to a 404 page, but I'm still happy to have clicked on it.

There's something about republicans using memes like "wat" and "nets" that will always seem so pandering

 

[Kusagari]

It's kind of remarkable how Jeb!, who is obviously much smarter than his brother, is so much worse of a politician.

I swear he has was nowhere near this gaffe prone when he was governor of Florida.

Could just be the Twitter age highlighting it more, but I doubt being out of politics for almost a decade is helping.

 

[watershed]

It's kind of remarkable how Jeb!, who is obviously much smarter than his brother, is so much worse of a politician.

People talked about this when he announced. He hasn't been in politics for nearly a decade now so he is not as disciplined as he might otherwise be. Plus he's running for president so the scrutiny is harsher than ever before in his political career. Also, he's a Bush.

 

[Plinko]

The most amazing thing in these polls continues to be Carson holding steady behind Trump, Jeb! and Walker.

How did every other single Tea Party favorite collapse in the face of Trump while he stood steady? He built that loyal a base?

He's generally respected by the public.

 

[B-Dubs]

He's generally respected by the public.

I hope he's enjoyed that, I doubt it lasts after the debate.

 

[Plinko]

I hope he's enjoyed that, I doubt it lasts after the debate.

Probably so. Also probably won't affect his poll numbers.

Also, those Fox News poll numbers about 2nd choice for Jeb voters are HORRIBLE news for Walker.

 

[B-Dubs]

I am so mad Graham didn't make the cut, I've been practicing my southern belle for two weeks. I could literally pass for the buxom blonde daughter of a plantation owner, or Lindsey Graham because they both sound the same.

Will someone get me a nice iced tea? The indignity of it all has me flabbergasted.

 

[Captain Pants]

The most amazing thing in these polls continues to be Carson holding steady behind Trump, Jeb! and Walker.

How did every other single Tea Party favorite collapse in the face of Trump while he stood steady? He built that loyal a base?

I saw a Ben Carson sticker here in Boise today, on a Prius of all things. Oddly enough, it's the first 2016 sticker I've seen for any candidate.

 

[KingGondo]

I saw a Ben Carson sticker here in Boise today, on a Prius of all things. Oddly enough, it's the first 2016 sticker I've seen for any candidate.

Maybe he's doing well because race is such a visible issue right now?

Probably makes GOPers feel good to support the black guy whose story proves that The American Dream is alive and well.

 

[Black Mamba]

From what time to what time is the main GOP debate this Thursday?

 

[Ether_Snake]

People are underestimating Trump. Once the purse holders realize it's him or the Dems win it, they'll back him. When they do, we'll see a very different scene. He'll have some big PR firms and all that stuff behind him, and everyone who wants to get in the spotlight will beg to be on his team. I don't see how he can't get the nomination unless the Republican party forces him out, and if they do then they basically create a third party, which they can't afford. He doesn't have to act presidential right now because he's just trying to swat some flies. Once he becomes the party's candidate, has the money behind him, and people looking into being part of his future staff, his game will change accordingly.

So they have to capitulate and hope he's going to play nice if they really back him, and I think they will. They're just hoping they won't have to, but after the debate it's going to be settled.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I don't think Trump would be such a huge disaster where like, the Democrat wins by over 20 points. He'd close the gap but I don't think he'd do much better than McCain did in 2008. A high single digit win for the Democrats.

If Trump were the nominee most of the smart big money donors for the GOP would boost House and Senate races. Barring some major implosion he wouldn't have a chance. No matter how hard he would try to improve his image this is a man whose personal life has lived in the public eye for decades and there's a treasure trove of absolutely stupid statements the Democrats can pick from.

 

[Officerrob]

People are underestimating Trump. Once the purse holders realize it's him or the Dems win it, they'll back him. When they do, we'll see a very different scene. He'll have some big PR firms and all that stuff behind him, and everyone who wants to get in the spotlight will beg to be on his team. I don't see how he can't get the nomination unless the Republican party forces him out, and if they do then they basically create a third party, which they can't afford. He doesn't have to act presidential right now because he's just trying to swat some flies. Once he becomes the party's candidate, has the money behind him, and people looking into being part of his future staff, his game will change accordingly.

So they have to capitulate and hope he's going to play nice if they really back him, and I think they will. They're just hoping they won't have to, but after the debate it's going to be settled.

No, it won't

 

[East Lake]

People are underestimating Trump. Once the purse holders realize it's him or the Dems win it, they'll back him. When they do, we'll see a very different scene. He'll have some big PR firms and all that stuff behind him, and everyone who wants to get in the spotlight will beg to be on his team. I don't see how he can't get the nomination unless the Republican party forces him out, and if they do then they basically create a third party, which they can't afford. He doesn't have to act presidential right now because he's just trying to swat some flies. Once he becomes the party's candidate, has the money behind him, and people looking into being part of his future staff, his game will change accordingly.

So they have to capitulate and hope he's going to play nice if they really back him, and I think they will. They're just hoping they won't have to, but after the debate it's going to be settled.

I think it's more a money problem. The donors don't want Trump but they can't make him go away by pulling his funding. But on the other hand I don't think he's ready to spend (or raise) whatever it takes to outspend Jeb or whoever the pacs line up behind.

 

[thefro]

I think it's more a money problem. The donors don't want Trump but they can't make him go away by pulling his funding. But on the other hand I don't think he's ready to spend (or raise) whatever it takes to outspend Jeb or whoever the pacs line up behind.

Trump doesn't need to spend as much money on TV ads when he can get free media coverage more or less at will.

The PAC ads won't hurt him as much as a typical candidate since everyone knows who he is already.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

The link goes to a 404 page, but I'm still happy to have clicked on it.

There's something about republicans using memes like "wat" and "nets" that will always seem so pandering

They took it down because it didn't have "I misspoke" its back up

 

[East Lake]

Trump doesn't need to spend as much money on TV ads when he can get free media coverage more or less at will.

The PAC ads won't hurt him as much as a typical candidate since everyone knows who he is already.

Eh, I don't think that's quite true. The scale of coverage is going to be totally different when the campaign get going. I don't think it'll be enough.

 

[HylianTom]

I don't think Trump would be such a huge disaster where like, the Democrat wins by over 20 points. He'd close the gap but I don't think he'd do much better than McCain did in 2008. A high single digit win for the Democrats.

If Trump were the nominee most of the smart big money donors for the GOP would boost House and Senate races. Barring some major implosion he wouldn't have a chance. No matter how hard he would try to improve his image this is a man whose personal life has lived in the public eye for decades and there's a treasure trove of absolutely stupid statements the Democrats can pick from.

That's my guess. If I were a crazy-rich guy looking at polls showing the White House as a hopeless cause, my tens or hundreds of millions would go towards limiting the damage in downticket races - particularly in the Senate. It doesn't seem like it upon first thought, but there's a huge difference in a Senate majority of 54 versus a Senate majority of 52.

I've always wondered, at what point do we see this happen?

 

[120v]

People are underestimating Trump. Once the purse holders realize it's him or the Dems win it, they'll back him. When they do, we'll see a very different scene. He'll have some big PR firms and all that stuff behind him, and everyone who wants to get in the spotlight will beg to be on his team. I don't see how he can't get the nomination unless the Republican party forces him out, and if they do then they basically create a third party, which they can't afford. He doesn't have to act presidential right now because he's just trying to swat some flies. Once he becomes the party's candidate, has the money behind him, and people looking into being part of his future staff, his game will change accordingly.

So they have to capitulate and hope he's going to play nice if they really back him, and I think they will. They're just hoping they won't have to, but after the debate it's going to be settled.

there's just no way koch & co. back trump. even if he is somehow polling ahead 6 months from now (when it's really going to matter) they'll just pour the reserves into jeb or whoever