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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Cheebo

Banned
Anyone who stills believes Trump a "flavor of the month" pre-candidate like the 2011 GOPers is seriously misreading what the Trumpening is all about.

We still have time before we can say this is beyond the flavor of the month stage.

As posted earlier:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...-very-weird-but-not-unprecedented-two-months/

https://img.washingtonpost.com/wp-a...gs/the-fix/files/2015/08/Durations.png&w=1484
imrs.php
 

Perry and Gingrich were riding on high anti-Obama rethoric and a desperation for a "true challenger" agaisnt Obama to appear. Trump is riding on high anti-GOP establisment and anti-politician rethoric. Something like Ron Paul on stereoids. Totally different things, imo.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Perry and Gingrich were riding on high anti-Obama rethoric and a desperation for a "true challenger" agaisnt Obama to appear. Trump is riding on high anti-GOP establisment and anti-politician rethoric. Something like Ron Paul on stereoids. Totally different things, imo.

I completely agree. It's a different scenario. Now, that's not saying Trump's numbers won't fall--they very well could.

But Trump is an anomaly. He's the only one who isn't a lifelong politician. He has his own money and isn't run by lobbyists. Gingrich and Perry aren't even close to that.
 
I completely agree. It's a different scenario. Now, that's not saying Trump's numbers won't fall--they very well could.

But Trump is an anomaly. He's the only one who isn't a lifelong politician. He has his own money and isn't run by lobbyists. Gingrich and Perry aren't even close to that.

No to mention that the 2016 cycle has way more candidates than 2012. Trump leading this much in such a crowded field is impressive, and some polls are now starting to show that many of the second tier candidates' supporters have Trump as the second choice.
 

Teggy

Member
.

Elizabeth Warren said:
“Do you have any idea what year it is?” Warren asked them. “Did you fall down, hit your head, and think you woke up in the 1950s or the 1890s? Should we call for a doctor? Because I simply cannot believe that in the year 2015, the United States Senate would be spending its time trying to defund women's health care centers. You know, on second thought, maybe I shouldn't be that surprised. The Republicans have had a plan for years to strip away women's rights to make choices over our own bodies.”
 

ivysaur12

Banned
CLqmzzfUAAAKwZ4.jpg


New (proposed) Florida map.

Graham is gone, but so is Webster. Jolly's seat will go to Dems. Ron DeSantis's seat goes from R+8 to D+1. Could be a 2 seat pickup for Dems. My guess is that the 5th and the 2nd get fussed around with a little bit more.
 

Farmboy

Member
No to mention that the 2016 cycle has way more candidates than 2012. Trump leading this much in such a crowded field is impressive,

Actually, such a field is hugely in his favor, for two reasons:

1) he's a controversial candidate and a sizeable number of voters oppose him. But the still-large field obscures this, as they're not consolidating behind an alternative.

2) The larger the field, the more important it is to have name recognition, at least in terms of early polling. The candidate with the highest name recognition will always lead such a large field early on.

That said,

and some polls are now starting to show that many of the second tier candidates' supporters have Trump as the second choice.

That is a valid point and quite surprising. If that poll is correct (it could be an outlier), Trump is stronger than many people (me included) think/thought.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Guys, I think I might have gone too mean with the debate thread. Like, reading it fucking kills me from laughter, but it might be a bit mean.

Fuck it, thread's going live. If a mod wants to complain I'll clean it up tonight after I get home.

EDIT: Thread's live! I might have gone too far in search of comedy. Be sure to play the music in the background.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
No to mention that the 2016 cycle has way more candidates than 2012. Trump leading this much in such a crowded field is impressive, and some polls are now starting to show that many of the second tier candidates' supporters have Trump as the second choice.

This is probably the biggest difference if looking strictly at polling. When Gingrich and Perry were at their highest against Romney, it was something like 35-23, a +12 and doing about 50% better than Romney. Trump is also at a +12 but with a 24-12 lead, he's doubling the support of the second place candidate.

The one thing Trump should worry about is his abysmal second pick percentages, but that won't come into play until candidates start dropping out in january, and with such a large and tightly packed field, there could be a lot of candidates not giving up until super tuesday.
 
So a random truck driver just won the democratic primary for the governorship of mississippi

http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2015/aug/05/robert-gray-truck-drivers-seat-challenge-gov-phil-/
Robert Gray, a 46-year-old Terry independent truck driver, didn't vote in the Mississippi party primaries yesterday. Before this morning, he said he had never stepped foot inside the state Capitol building. Yet, as of now, he is the presumptive Democratic nominee for governor.
Gray shocked political watchers around the state by finishing first among the three Democratic candidates with 51 percent of the vote, which would not necessitate a runoff if the totals hold up. Most pundits believed Vicki Slater, who had a robust and active campaign, would capture the nomination, but she only drew 30.2 percent. Dr. Valerie Short, a retired physician, received 18.8 percent.

Speaking this morning to reporters on the third floor of the Capitol near the governor's office, Gray wore a blue shirt with the sleeves rolled up. He said he hopes he didn't win because his opponents are women. Because his campaign-finance reports reflect no fundraising nor he did have a campaign website or social-media presence, Gray surmised that it might have been his common-sounding name that made 146,387 people vote for him over two better-financed opponents.
"Most people have a Robert in their family," he said.
 

pigeon

Banned
Trump has a very special advantage in the debates tonight -- the majority of people on the stage with him have, at some point, accepted large campaign donations from him.

I expect that to come up at some point!
 

pigeon

Banned
The Atlantic made an interesting point about the government shutdown scheduled for October.

The Murray-Ryan bill lifted the sequestration caps for 2014 and 2015 by moving those sequestration cuts to 2021 and 2022 (this way it's "budget-neutral"). This means that sequestration has become yet another one of those must-pass bills that Congress has to do something about every year or two in order to prevent calamity.

But 2015's just about over! The next budget agreement needs to handle sequestration for fiscal 2016. If the GOP punts on a continuing resolution, it'll be continuing at 2015 levels, which means it will de facto remove the sequestration cuts with no substitute.

Fun times for Boehner and McConnell!
 

Konka

Banned
Trump has a very special advantage in the debates tonight -- the majority of people on the stage with him have, at some point, accepted large campaign donations from him.

I expect that to come up at some point!

You're getting ahead of yourself.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Trump has a very special advantage in the debates tonight -- the majority of people on the stage with him have, at some point, accepted large campaign donations from him.

I expect that to come up at some point!

Trump probably has a lot of comebacks like this prepared for if he's attacked on his left or right. I wouldn't be surprised if they were all too afraid to attack him for fear of that comeback attack coming their way.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
B-dubs, love your Debate OT.

But still no one has answered my question, not even your OT! What time to what time are these debates!?!?!?

Here's the OT in video form, how it was meant to be seen.

Trump probably has a lot of comebacks like this prepared for if he's attacked on his left or right. I wouldn't be surprised if they were all too afraid to attack him for fear of that comeback attack coming their way.

This is what I'm expecting. Trump is going in with comebacks and that's it. I wouldn't be shocked if he prepared a few zingers instead of actually prepping.
 

watershed

Banned
Trump probably has a lot of comebacks like this prepared for if he's attacked on his left or right. I wouldn't be surprised if they were all too afraid to attack him for fear of that comeback attack coming their way.

Candidates looking to make a splash will go after him with some well-prepared barbs just to get noticed and maybe even go viral. I expect Christie to go after Trump in his typical way.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
But would also put the Dems in a much better position than they were beforehand. I'd take it. Graham can always run statewide in 2018.

Can't she just move districts or would that be political suicide? I guess she can decline to run again or lose and wait till 2018. She could run for Senate but Murphy is already running.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Cook PVI beforehand -> Raw PVI from 2012 election after (CHANGE)

FL-1: R+21 -> R+19 (D+2)
FL-2: R+6 -> R+15 (R+9)
FL-3: R+12 -> R+6 (D+6)
FL-4: R+17 -> R+16 (D+1)
FL-5: D+16 -> D+13 (R+3 CONGRATS CORRINE)
FL-6: R+8 -> EVEN (D+8)
FL-7: R+4 -> EVEN (D+4)
FL-8: R+8 -> R+7 (D+1)
FL-9: D+4 -> D+4 (--)
FL-10: R+7 -> D+10 (D+17)
FL-11: R+6 -> R+8 (R+2)
FL-12: R+6 -> R+3 (D+3)
FL-13: R+1 -> D+5 (D+6)
FL-14: D+11 -> D+8 (R+3)
FL-15: R+6 -> R+4 (D+2)
FL-16: R+5 -> R+3 (D+2)
FL-17: R+10 -> R+7 (D+3)
FL-18: R+3 -> EVEN (D+3)
FL-19: R+11 -> R+8 (D+3)
FL-20: D+28 -> D+30 (D+2)
FL-21: D+12 -> D+12 (--)
FL-22: D+4 -> D+7 (D+3)
FL-23: D+11 -> D+11 (--)
FL-24: D+33 -> D+35 (D+2)
FL-25: R+6 -> R+6 (--)
FL-26: R+4 -> R+3 (D+1)
FL-27: R+2 -> R+1 (D+1)

Huge win for the Democrats, honestly.
 
Trump has a very special advantage in the debates tonight -- the majority of people on the stage with him have, at some point, accepted large campaign donations from him.

I expect that to come up at some point!

Seems like that would be setting himself up to get slammed for giving money to Hillary
 
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