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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Kind of feels like Tea Party supporters are somehow overrepresented in the polling given how high the Tea Party-esque candidates are across all surveys so far though.
I wonder if that's because your average Tea Party supporter is more happy to answer a political survey so they can vent than the average person/Republican?
Retromelon
Member
That reince image is lovely
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I have no idea about this. I always thought maggots were baby flies.
cartoon_solider said:
Jeb was awful in the debate and seemed very moderate. Walker said almost nothing and was as bland as usual. Not a surprise their numbers would drop when Carly was yelling at everyone and Carson was spouting nonsense about equating our tax system to Biblical tithe.
They are more happy to view in the primary as well.
And I repeat, Kasich is this year's Huntsman. There is no room for moderation in the GOP
Precisely - you can call them a "fly", but they have no wings or eyes or legs. They are something very different. Just like a "human" embryo is something very different than a fully developed "human". Calling it a "human" is simply semantics.
The top 3 are all pure Tea Party candidates and most of Rubio/Carly's support probably comes from them as well.
It's like no other sect of the party was polled.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So it's still a baby fly? I guess I don't get what you're saying. Besides, it's way off topic here.
gcubed said:
Been saying this for months.
speculawyer
Member
Bwahahaha!
Trump is still king!
The next two are unelectable theocrats.
Carly will melt under further scrutiny.
Rubio did ok the other day but it is just a matter of fact time before he says something idiotic.
Jeb & Walker voted off the island for being dull & Derp.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Even then. It's not like only Tea Party right wingers vote in primaries.
RustyNails
Member
Holy shit The Donald did really well on the state of the union show
I caught that segment this morning, Kasich was at 2% on one of the won debate or lost debate polls. So basically a few people remembered he existed, that was about the gist of it.
Sure you call it a baby "fly". The point is this - you can say that a sperm fertilizing an egg creates a "human", but labeling it as "human" does nothing. It gains no additional rights not to be aborted, and Rubio's statement about "science" is meaningless. That's where the discussion started, continued by you agreeing with him.
EDIT: and now I see it was not you who were initially agreeing with him so never mind that lol. I then have no idea what you were trying to get at regarding my "personal feelings".
RustyNails
Member
Roland_Gunner
Member
Per Chuck Todd it was a screened online panel based on expected voter demographics. May not be accurate but there is a basis for the poll.
speculawyer
Member
This is wrong. In the human body, life does not ever 'begin'. It continues. A live sperm cell meets a live egg cell and that living cell continues living. It may (if lucky ) attach to a uterine wall and grow.
Abortion is not a science question. The science is fully understood. Abortion is a legal question. When does a new fetus get full human rights? I'm fine with the line drawn at birth.
Ted Crruz. Trump and Carson have a total of 47% of the vote at this point? Is this real life?
Pack it up. Like I said in the other thread :
Pack it up. Like I said in the other thread :
"We have new reports from the front Madam. According to latest information the right wing universe is exploding at the speed of light. Conservatives are turning against Fox News and Trump is making new gains in these latest polls, even Erick Erickson is now a RINO according to many hard liners"
"Also, another Bernie Sanders rally has been shut down by protesters. We have African American activists screaming "WHITE RACISTS!" while Sanders is trying to desperately contain the situation in the background "
All according to keikaku
speculawyer
Member
Survey Monkey is a silicon valley based Internet polling group. The ceo was in the news for dyinga few months back. He was the husband of that big female Facebook executive that wrote that 'Lean In' book. I don't know how good their methodology is but they do make an effort to get a decent randomized sample.
Survey Monkey used to be that thing you would use when you wanted to poll your officemates on where to have the holiday party. I guess they have expanded.
Yaaaaaasssss
BertramCooper
Banned
Survey Monkey is one of those late-90s tech startups that probably wishes they could have a do-over on picking their name.
That said, we use their paid services at work to conduct informal polls. It's good stuff.
I had no idea they did any sort of real polling, though.
That said, we use their paid services at work to conduct informal polls. It's good stuff.
I had no idea they did any sort of real polling, though.
That was interesting. I'm not surprised he's doing well anymore. Anti-PC and energetic.
RustyNails
Member
Even if the surveymonkey poll is bunk (which I doubt), there have been slew of other polls after the debate and all of them show a clear trend. Trump is in the lead.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Not according to scientific definition, at least in general. When a sperm and egg meet, a new cell is instantly created. That isn't life "continuing," that's a new cell being created, thus a new beginning.
I'm not carrying on an abortion debate. I'm just stating what I've seen scientists define.
BACK ON TOPIC:
Carly Fiorina is now on record opposing a mandatory paid leave for new mothers.
I, for one, am shocked that a former CEO would feel that way.
No, he's correct. A fertilized egg has a new set of DNA relative its progenitors, but it's no more alive than the sperm and egg cells for it. It's the creation of a new organism, but it's not life from nonlife.
cartoon_soldier
Member
None including proper political poll methodology though? Online polls and panels is what we have seen.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
But that's the whole cause of the issue. That's where the issue comes in. I've never heard anyone argue that a sperm isn't alive. However, I've seen numerous scientists define that new created organism as new life. That's why there is the giant discrepancy in beliefs here. Everybody ends up arguing semantics one way or another, which is why the debates never go anywhere. I find these arguments to be some of the most pointless arguments to have because everybody argues over semantics and nobody changes their mind.
(ever since that story emerged of Justice O'Connor getting upset at an election party when Florida was initially called for Gore, I like to imagine various SCOTUS judges reacting along the way..)
Right, and I do think this is a major tactical error on the part of pro-choicers. It's a problem when at least two Republican candidates (I think Huckabee in the early debate and I forget who in the later debate) can say that science is on their side and be more-or-less correct. The "a fetus isn't a human life" position sets itself up for really easy dismissal with uncontroversial facts - "it's got a complete and novel set of DNA". It's really a very unusual use of "life", or at least it's excluding a big part of what we usually take as going along with "life". I think what pro-choicers should be after is to get people to actually reflect on what it is about fetuses that makes them so valuable, and they're not helping themselves by using slogans that make it easy to see them as crazy people.
RustyNails
Member
Chuck Todd said it was a scientific poll.
adamsappel
Member
I'm not surprised Stone was working for Trump. He's probably damaged goods for a mainstream Republican candidate because of his sex scandal. He's a swinger/cuckold. I have a friend who banged his wife while Roger watched/joed.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah, I think we mostly all in agreement. Yes, that cell has a brand new combination of DNA that is different from father & mother. A new random combination of their DNA.
But the 'life'...the continous metabolizing chemical reaction just continues for the sperm &egg life. There is no abiogenesis.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Okay?
Avon Barksdale
Member
Are we really talking about abortion in TWENTY FIFTEEN?!
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I spoke this morning with a microbiologist who works for Eli Lilly and agreed with me *shrug*
speculawyer
Member
An online poll can be good with enough work done to make sure it is a random sample.
But the reality is that we will never have as accurate polls as we did in the 70's when everyone had landline phones without call screening.
Now with cell phones, VOIP, call screening, etc. It is hard to get good polls. It the UK they totally got that election wrong.
It is what it is.
speculawyer
Member
Eli Lilly. ...Indiana. ..a republican? Pro Life? People's views are skewed by what they want to believe.
Ask him if abiogenesis is occurring.
what the fuck is happening
speculawyer
Member
It was a big part of the GOP debate. At least 4 nominees spoke about it. Rubio and walker basically endorsed an abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest. (Good luck with that in the General. )
Considering it is still illegal over large swaths of the world, we should be talking about it. As an aside, I really don't like the trend of naming the year we're in as some sign that it should be the future and past issues should just fade away. There is a long way to go, especially on abortion.
This has always my thing about the abortion debate:
the anti-abortion folks tend to claim preferance for a pretty plain, non-living interpretation of the Constitution's words. So when I see the phrase "all persons born or naturalized" and then look at a fertilized egg, I don't see how that fits a legal definition of either a "born" or "naturalized" person. It doesn't have any sort of formal legal status. It doesn't have a social security number. There is no legal birth certificate declaring it "born." In other words, it'd take a bit of a stretch in order to twist the document to apply to this entity - a stretch that's not quite consistent with their typical claims of plain-reading the Constitution.
the anti-abortion folks tend to claim preferance for a pretty plain, non-living interpretation of the Constitution's words. So when I see the phrase "all persons born or naturalized" and then look at a fertilized egg, I don't see how that fits a legal definition of either a "born" or "naturalized" person. It doesn't have any sort of formal legal status. It doesn't have a social security number. There is no legal birth certificate declaring it "born." In other words, it'd take a bit of a stretch in order to twist the document to apply to this entity - a stretch that's not quite consistent with their typical claims of plain-reading the Constitution.
Online poll is online, but...
Don't know what Todd means when he says it's 'scientific'. But it is in line with the consensus that Carson and Fiorina had good nights, Walker and Jeb had poor showings and Trumps gonna Trump as his voters don't seem to care either way.
Speaking of, I'm actually wondering if the Trump crowd would care even if he'd come out as pro choice, pro gay marriage and pro universal health care (as he has in the past). This seems to be about 1) his style, 2) him sticking it to the establishment and 3) a single issue (immigration). Nothing else seems to matter.
That said, we'll have to wait and see if the Kelly comments have any impact. Judging by the recent past, they won't. But Kelly is far more popular than McCain, and besides, the pattern is starting to look like thin-skinned pettiness.
I don't think the Kelly thing will move the needle as it can be explained away as Trump defending himself from an ambush.
The phrase "all persons born or naturalized" in the 14th Amendment speaks only to what persons are entitled to U.S. citizenship; it does not explicitly define personhood.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Looks like I was wrong about Cruz. I thought he simply didn't have enough time to get his message across due to Trump but it looks like people responded positively to what he was able to say.
This is where I struggle with the issue, as it's the closest thing we have in the document regarding who's entitled to rights.
If we apply personhood to a fertilized egg does that bestow citizenship on anyone conceived here in the U.S.? How does one then prove they were conceived here?
I want that poll to be accurate, but there's no way.
Judging by what we saw the night of the debate, it probably is.
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