Wait a minute, you say. Didn’t Bush 41 and 43 win? Their campaigns may have been dishonest, but didn’t it work in the end? Doesn’t this augur well for Jeb?
Republicans would make a big mistake believing this. History tells the story. Why the two other Bushes won is precisely why this Bush is the wrong fit for the GOP and why he won’t win.
Go back to the 1988 campaign. Even with all the trappings of the vice presidency, and the incredible record of his predecessor, Bush was being soundly thrashed by Michael Dukakis throughout the summer of 1988. At the end of July Dukakis was destroying him 55-to-37 in national polls.
Only when Dukakis imploded with a series of foolish missteps, and Ronald Reagan publicly called on conservatives to rally behind Bush, did the base respond. But make no mistake about it: The conservative base was responding to Reagan, not Bush.
Jeb Bush has nothing of the sort behind him. There is no conservative leader anywhere with any serious gravitas endorsing him. In fact, virtually no major moderate GOP leader is endorsing him either. He’s got a handful of House members, and no sitting Senators in his camp.
George W. won in 2000 based on a different dynamic. After 8 years of Clinton-Gore, the American people were ready for a change.
It should have been a cake-walk for the Republicans. For goodness sakes: it was Al Gore! But Gore actually defeated Bush in the popular vote that year. Four years later, with the 9/11 political winds still behind him, it should have been another landslide, yet George W. barely defeated John Kerry.
There has never been a mandate for a Bush. So how to elect yet another one?
As they did with his brother, the GOP establishment is touting Jeb Bush’s conservative record as governor. As they did with his father, they’re downplaying his anti-conservative positions on big issues. As they do with every moderate, they’re promoting his so-called “electability” as a general election candidate against Hillary Clinton.