The point being, if you had seen it you would be hard pressed to say jons debating skills are lackingTo be fair, if i ever had to point out an interview where Stewart got rekt, that'd be it.
Also does a wonderful job of showing how... weird Rumfeld's thought process is, tho.
Im pretty sure war has changed. There are no more nation states that will go toe to toe with us unless they want to get bulldozed by America's mighty dick like Baathist Iraq. No matter how much the Republicans want to bomb Iran, we will never face off with them. What we will be seeing a lot of is ISIS styled insurgency if a war does break out.
But that will not always be the case. Somebody, somewhere, at some point will develop, deploy, and publicize a reliable countermeasure to ICBMs. That's going to change... everything, really.
There are a million other weapons and technologies that are just as brutal. When an icbm defense is developed, it doesnt guarantee that wars in the old way will follow. Technology has given us too much capability to inflict harm and intolerable battlefield conditions for that. Nukes are just the catch all symbol for this, not the one impediment to world war 3War has changed.
What I'm concerned about is it changing back. War between comparably powerful nation-states is currently impossible because of MAD; anybody without enough firepower to compete with the US in any theater at all also probably has nukes, which makes any sort of large-scale conflict between us and them basically impossible because at the end of the day nobody wants to end the world just to prove a point.
But that will not always be the case. Somebody, somewhere, at some point will develop, deploy, and publicize a reliable countermeasure to ICBMs. That's going to change... everything, really.
You're thinking of direct strikes. If you expand your view of ICBMs to factor the indirect damage that you can cause with them, there's no reason to worry about that time coming any time soon.
I mean, tsar bomba was more than fifty years ago.
There are a million other weapons and technologies that are just as brutal. When an icbm defense is developed, it doesnt guarantee that wars in the old way will follow. Technology has given us too much capability to inflict harm and intolerable battlefield conditions for that. Nukes are just the catch all symbol for this, not the one impediment to world war 3
There are a million other weapons and technologies that are just as brutal. When an icbm defense is developed, it doesnt guarantee that wars in the old way will follow. Technology has given us too much capability to inflict harm and intolerable battlefield conditions for that. Nukes are just the catch all symbol for this, not the one impediment to world war 3
'Just better versions' is a mite dismissive for 100 years of progress. I remain unconvinced.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/general-election-tight-in-iowa.html
Tight polling in Iowa. At this point, looks much more like 2004 than 2008 or 2012. Caveat: the election is in 15 months.
Trump's 21% standing as an independent becomes a little less impressive when you consider that Deez Nuts also polls at 7% as an independent, which sort of suggests that might be the floor for a third party candidate. (Clinton leads Trump 41/36 in the iteration of the horse race including Mr. Nuts.)
They said that after WWI. Second strike capability ensures MAD, and second strike depends on ICBMs. Everything else is just better versions of what we've had before.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/general-election-tight-in-iowa.html
Tight polling in Iowa. At this point, looks much more like 2004 than 2008 or 2012. Caveat: the election is in 15 months.
There is no legislation that could enforce that. It would have to be a chain of command thing and would therefore be highly unlikely to ever happen.Everyone is fine funding the military, just- like other government agencies-make them shitbin doomed projects sooner and faster.
There is no legislation that could enforce that. It would have to be a chain of command thing and would therefore be highly unlikely to ever happen.
I'm just saying; the horror at the deployment of conventional weapons lasts 1-2 generations, tops. What's maintained the current (relative) peace between major powers is the looming threat of permanent annihilation. Take that out of the equation, and Russia invades Poland tomorrow.
Or maybe not exactly that, but shit gets real very fucking quickly.
I'm reading about the Effective Altruism Global conference on Vox. That is, the idea that philanthropy and charity is not really effective despite how much we give, so using modern tools (tech, etc.) to help us determine how to better allocate our charity would make us more 'effective'.
Oh my god.
I had a laugh caught in my throat. I suppose over-intelligence wrecks the brain's ability to reason for some things.
Screw people!
On that note, is there any part of Silicon Valley/SF technolibertarian thought that isn't awful? Even if you get past the uniform misogyny and ageism of the movement, you're left with these ideas that don't actually benefit people and allocate resources very poorly.
"The one thing I don't like about our own AI is that it's almost too good."
1. What about all the secret projects that don't get press, if the military doesnt want to deal with the prospect of cancellation they will designate more projects to be conducted secretly.Congress gets involved in per-project funding battles with the Pentagon all the time, usually to prop up failed or unwanted weapons platforms in order to prop up local economies.
You are all wrong. They are being very responsible. They are just thinking very long term. I don't expect a lot of people to understand but I expect better from PoliGAF.
On the AI danger stuff . . . I've actually done some work in the field. Personally, I think they are jumping the gun a bit. I don't think we are within 20 years of superpowerful AI. It might not even be possible within a 100 years due to technology limitations (hitting the end of the Moore's law, quantum effects, thermal issues, leakage, etc.). But it might be. And it doesn't hurt to throw a few million at looking at potential long term problems.
1. What about all the secret projects that don't get press, if the military doesnt want to deal with the prospect of cancellation they will designate more projects to be conducted secretly.
2. The bill would be liberals and rinos destroying our military bait from day 1
Why is that bad? Sanders would spoil the race for Clinton. Even if Trump spoils it for Jeb, its too much of a risk for Clinton. She is not absolutely formidable.It would be incredible to see a four-way race of Clinton vs Bush vs Trump vs Sanders. It's too bad I think Sanders ruled out the possibility of running as an independent.
Why is that bad? Sanders would spoil the race for Clinton. Even if Trump spoils it for Jeb, its too much of a risk for Clinton. She is not absolutely formidable.
I can't support a president who doesn't get properly sized glassesUm, so, Lawrence Lessig is running for president...?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...n-for-president-in-a-most-unconventional-way/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaqrQz71bMk
The presidential numbers from this Reuters/Ipsos poll (PDF Link) are staggering. The poll is Aug 6-10, all taken after the debate. It was the most watched primary debate ever, but it seems that all that coverage isn't helping to improve the image of this Republican field at all.
Primary numbers:
Trump - 24
Bush - 12
Rubio - 8
Huckabee - 8
Carson - 8
Walker - 7
Fiorina - 6
Cruz - 5
Presidential numbers:
Clinton - 41
Bush - 29
Clinton - 44
Walker - 24
Clinton - 42
Christie - 25
Clinton - 44
Carson - 24
Clinton - 41
Cruz - 27
Clinton - 41
Rubio - 28
Clinton - 43
Trump - 29
At this point, Trump holds up just as well as any of the other candidates in the general election.
Hillary's numbers don't look too good. She's got to be really concerned if she's only polling in the low 40s. Sure, the Republican numbers don't look so great at face value, but those people who answered "Neither" or "Don't know/Other" will come around by election night and bury Hillary.
Hillary's numbers don't look too good. She's got to be really concerned if she's only polling in the low 40s. Sure, the Republican numbers don't look so great at face value, but those people who answered "Neither" or "Don't know/Other" will come around by election night and bury Hillary.
Those numbers will look better as more Democrats come home. She's winning, what, 70-75% of Dems here? Getting that up to around 90% will get her comfortably into the mid-40s, especially if the electorate still has Dem party ID anywhere near 2012.Hillary's numbers don't look too good. She's got to be really concerned if she's only polling in the low 40s. Sure, the Republican numbers don't look so great at face value, but those people who answered "Neither" or "Don't know/Other" will come around by election night and bury Hillary.
PPP's new poll for the Senate and Governor in Missouri finds pretty close races for both offices, defined by a mix of candidates who are either unknown or unpopular.
Roy Blunt is one of the least popular Senators in the country, with only 30% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 47% who disapprove. Blunt has become increasingly unpopular over the course of his first term in the Senate. When PPP last polled the state right before the 2012 election voters were closely divided in their feelings about him with 35% approving and 34% disapproving. Blunt is quite unpopular with independents (24/52) and Democrats (17/62) but what really makes his numbers soft is that he's only at 46/28 approval even with Republican voters. Those are the kinds of numbers that usually make you susceptible to a primary challenge.
Blunt leads Democratic challenger Jason Kander 40/35 for reelection with 25% of voters undecided. That high level of indecision may have a lot to do with voters just not being that familiar with Kander at this point- only 35% know enough about him to have formed an opinion either way.
The Governor's race looks like a sheer toss up at this point. Republican hopeful Peter Kinder leads Democratic candidate Chris Koster 40-37. But Koster has leads of 4-8 points over the rest of GOP field- it's 39/35 over Bob Dixon, 40/36 over Catherine Hanaway, 40/35 over Randy Asbury, 41/36 over John Brunner, 40/34 over Eric Greitens, and 39/31 over Bart Korman.
The high level of undecideds in all of those match ups reflects how little known the candidates are at this point. Kinder is the only candidate with greater than 50% name recognition, at 54%. The only other candidates over 40% name recognition are Koster at 47% and Hanaway at 42%.
That name recognition advantage also vaults Kinder to an early lead in the Republican primary for Governor. He gets 27% to 11% for Hanaway, 9% for Brunner, 7% for Dixon, 5% for Asbury, 4% for Greitens, and less than 1% for Korman. A plurality of voters at 37% remain undecided.
One final note from Missouri- Jay Nixon is now a pretty unpopular Governor with only 36% of voters approving of the job he's doing to 48% who disapprove. He was at 51/31 right on the eve of his reelection in 2012. Nixon's approval with African Americans is only 49/37, compared to 84/4 for President Obama in the state.
I can't support a president who doesn't get properly sized glasses
There will be polls showing Republicans ahead of Hillary. There will be polls showing Hillary ahead of Republicans. She will be down in Iowa. She will be up in North Carolina. She will be neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania. She will be up in Nevada. She will be down in Nevada. These are how these things work.
Also, the election is in 15 months.
EDIT: Also, whoa, I didn't realize Roy Blunt was so unpopular:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/missouri-senate-governors-races-competitive.html
Just like McConnell but once they find out Kander voted with Obama and Hillary 90% of the time he is toast.
Just like McConnell but once they find out Kander voted with Obama and Hillary 90% of the time he is toast.
Come on, Biden. Now is the time.
Honestly I don't buy the white women argument. They don't seem to like her, and aren't going to simply support her due to the "historic" nature of the pick. White women are smart. They saw how the last "historic" candidate turned out, why would they fall for that again?
Honestly I don't buy the white women argument. They don't seem to like her, and aren't going to simply support her due to the "historic" nature of the pick. White women are smart. They saw how the last "historic" candidate turned out, why would they fall for that again?
There will be polls showing Republicans ahead of Hillary. There will be polls showing Hillary ahead of Republicans. She will be down in Iowa. She will be up in North Carolina. She will be neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania. She will be up in Nevada. She will be down in Nevada. These are how these things work.
Also, the election is in 15 months.
EDIT: Also, whoa, I didn't realize Roy Blunt was so unpopular:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/08/missouri-senate-governors-races-competitive.html
New Morning Consult Poll. Trump again fairing better than Walker in general election matchups:
Clinton - 44%
Bush - 41%
Clinton - 46%
Paul - 39%
Clinton - 46%
Rubio - 39%
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 41%
Clinton - 48%
Walker - 35%
Clinton's national numbers are identical to Obama's in 2011. She's running worse than he did in heavily white states like MN and IA, but at least as well in more diverse states like FL, NV, AZ, and VA. I guess for her team that's got to be a win that she's holding his coalition together. White liberals will come home on election day. She's noticeably not doing any better than him among white women, but I don't think the historic nature of her candidacy will really start to really kick in among women until after the DNC convention.
But really none of these poll numbers matter till March.
Learn about Trump, volunteer, read Trump News, buy swag, donate to his campaign . . . but don't expect to get policy.
I'm wondering if it is worth creating a thread about the fact that the leading GOP presidential nominee's web page HAS NO POLICY WHATSOEVER.
And, yes, it is hilarious to read his web page with the Trump quote extension running.