As I’ve written previously, one of the interesting things about a 17-person field is that we could end up with multiple candidates winning the early contests, going forward into Super Tuesday, and entering the home stretch of primaries with the delegates split among them.
Which brings us to what I think is the most interesting thing about Trump. Let’s say Republicans approach the convention with no candidate near a majority of delegates, and with Trump holding, say, 20 percent of the counts. If you prefer, give him a plurality.
At that point, the Republican nomination will be matter of negotiation. Whatever else you want to say about Trump, he’s an effective negotiator. That, I suspect, is why he hasn’t ruled out a third party bid. Why would he? It’s his trump card, so to speak, in those sorts of discussions. This is where Trump is probably at his most interesting: If the field stays crowded, and if the delegates are badly fractured for the convention.
So what do you do with Trump? The main thing is simply to remember where we are in the process. For most voters, it is still very early in the season. Many haven’t been tuned in, aren’t really making up their minds, and are free to make comments about candidates they support without giving other alternatives a close look. From now until December or so, I’d counsel simply kicking back, and enjoying the show
