• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

Status
Not open for further replies.

NeoXChaos

Member
If Trump, Fiorina and Carson are taken out:

CMJ4jd-WEAEFMLo.jpg
 
Hillary Clinton met with five Black Lives Matter activists behind closed doors following her campaign event here on Tuesday evening, after the group tried to disrupt the forum but arrived too late to get past security.

The other thread mentioned that they announced that they'd try it beforehand, so i doubt that'll do anything to quell the conspiracy theories.
 
This is still going on?

There are probably more active PoliGAF posters than there are independent voters who care about this.
People claim the Internet made Americans care about issues in the news cycle for much shorter periods but I feel like these stories are just generally boring. I stopped caring to hear about the emails after the first week.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Trump is on FIRE

No doubt. This is going to be catnip for their primary voters. Holy hell.

And I'll float another tinfoil hat theory:
Bill Clinton nudged Donald Trump into this, knowing that there was a good chance that Trump would dominate political news coverage for as long as he's the race. Once Trump fades, we'll hear, "But what about those emails?" and the response will be "that's old news. It was covered thoroughly. C'mon, man."

I'm surprised at how well he is handling the press lol
I have to admit: I do enjoy his banter with them. He's damn good at it.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Just like the polls a couple weeks ago showed. Walker is in huge trouble.

It's amazing how much Walker has dropped since the debates. I guess he wasn't ready for the national league after all.
 
Walker is in huge trouble? He's 2nd behind Bush with in those polls.

Rubio is the one who really has an uphill struggle. Though I suspect he's really gunning for a VP slot. I can't imagine he really believes he can win this.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Walker is in huge trouble? He's 2nd behind Bush with in those polls.

Rubio is the one who really has an uphill struggle. Though I suspect he's really gunning for a VP slot. I can't imagine he really believes he can win this.

There's only one post debate poll in the RCP average, and that might have been added after that image was made.

Every single poll since the debate has him losing like 5 or more percentage points, putting him back in the middle of the huge pack.
 

watershed

Banned
Not Trump's fault but only in America is doubling and tripling the sanctions on Iran a viable policy. All other countries involved in the deal accept that lifting sanctions in return for no nukes in Iran is a good trade. Other countries understand that that's what the sanctions were put in place for. To put pressure on Iran to make them come to the negotiation table.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Walker is in huge trouble? He's 2nd behind Bush with in those polls.

Rubio is the one who really has an uphill struggle. Though I suspect he's really gunning for a VP slot. I can't imagine he really believes he can win this.

Yes, because if Trump falters, Jeb gets the vast majority of his votes. Walker doesn't. That's a huge, huge problem for Walker.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
So your argument is that when Trump falters, Bush will become the front runner correct?

Not really. That poll shows that if Trump, Fiorina, and Carson are all out, that's what happens. I find it hard to believe that every single one of Fiorina and Carson's votes go to Walker. Many have to be going to Bush as well.

At this point, I honestly don't know if Trump will falter. Walker needs to start ratcheting up the crazy if he wants to get back in this thing.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Yes, because if Trump falters, Jeb gets the vast majority of his votes. Walker doesn't. That's a huge, huge problem for Walker.

I'm pretty sure that chart just distributes the new votes evenly.

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any polls for figuring out who wins in a smaller field. Just second choice, which means so little when there's 17 candidates to choose from.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I'm pretty sure that chart just distributes the new votes evenly.

I'm pretty sure there hasn't been any polls for figuring out who wins in a smaller field. Just second choice, which means so little when there's 17 candidates to choose from.

That seems bizarre that they would do that, especially when they have actual polling data from just recently they could use.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
That seems bizarre that they would do that, especially when they have actual polling data from just recently they could use.

You don't have that data unless you either ask each respondent to rank their choices, so you can filter candidates out instant runoff style, or just ask them to choose from a list minus those candidates. None of those polls have that data, as far as I know.
 
No one candidate will get all the votes from the faltered candidates...but I simply don't believe Trump voters will move to Bush in mass numbers. Trump voters are likely very focused on immigration, why would they move to Bush in mass?

Walker and Cruz will be take a lot of those voters, perhaps Rubio too.
 

Averon

Member
Why would Trump voters go to Jeb? I'd imagine the vast majority of Trump admirers absolutely hate establishment Republicans, and Jeb is the establishment's go-to guy at the moment.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Walker's best shot is if Trump and Jeb stay in until the very end. I think the establishment forces Walker out before that point, though.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Keep going after Trump, Jeb. He will destroy you and you will not recover.

Press conference was masterful. But everyone should know that. This is what Trump is. He's a showman. You see how his voice changes and his tone inflects and all that shit when he's telling a joke? Mitt Romney can't even.
 
Not Trump's fault but only in America is doubling and tripling the sanctions on Iran a viable policy. All other countries involved in the deal accept that lifting sanctions in return for no nukes in Iran is a good trade. Other countries understand that that's what the sanctions were put in place for. To put pressure on Iran to make them come to the negotiation table.

Ahm, no? Like, not even remotely. Most of the sanctions were put in place as retaliation for the embassy mess, which most likely only happened because the US accepted giving treatment to the Shah. Only the most recent sanctions happened as a result of the nukes, and even then one could easily argue that they happened more due to the israeli lobby + ahmadinejad's dickish behaviour than anything else.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
In more non-Trump news, a Democrat just won handily (looks like 60/40) in a safe Republican district in the Georgia House.

Why is this important? Republicans no longer have a supermajority and can't sail constitutional amendments through both chambers.

@MaxBlau: This is a huge surprise: Taylor Bennett beat J. Max Davis in #HD80. Dems now have 60 seats in the Ga. House. http://t.co/DE2xIL0S2D #gapol
 
Ahm, no? Like, not even remotely. Most of the sanctions were put in place as retaliation for the embassy mess, which most likely only happened because the US accepted giving treatment to the Shah. Only the most recent sanctions happened as a result of the nukes, and even then one could easily argue that they happened more due to the israeli lobby + ahmadinejad's dickish behaviour than anything else.

The israel lobby in Russia and China?
 
At this point, I honestly don't know if Trump will falter. Walker needs to start ratcheting up the crazy if he wants to get back in this thing.

I don't think more crazy will help walker. He seems to have some of the most crazy views already. He just lacks charisma and presence. He's a tool and everyone knows it. He is an ideological zombie that can't think on his own. That is why the Koch brothers love him.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom