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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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D

Diablos

Member
Y2Kev said:
Jeb! is getting the republican nomination. He has too much money. But at least he's a loser and has baggage. I would be afraid of like Rubio or walker who I think could actually excite people.
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He's good enough for the GOP and he's doing better than anyone else at closing the gap with Hillary. Despite all his faults, this is why he will end up winning the nom.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
RDreamer said:
Holy fuck that's one of the stupidest, most sexist fucking laws I've ever heard of. My hatred of Jeb Bush just went up tenfold.

I'm in shock. How did the entire legislature come together to write that. Just, wow. Speechless.
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Same way they went with all the schiavo-specific crap he tried to pull? Florida gon florida, m8.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hmm, forgot about this one with Jeb!

http://www.salon.com/2015/06/10/jeb...let_letter_law_was_even_worse_than_it_sounds/
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The notice… must contain a physical description, including, but not limited to age, race, hair and eye color, and approximate height and weight of the minor’s mother and of any person the mother reasonably believes may be the father; the minor’s date of birth; and any date and city, including the county and state in which the city is located, in which conception may have occurred.
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This is giving me an idea, we pass a law requiring all males to publish this information on all sex they have, with the payment split 50/50 to the paper/state. It'll save local newspapers and bring in extensive revenue!

Benji Policy Solutions copyright 2015
 
R

RDreamer

Member
538's winners and losers of the debate

Winners

Carly Fiorina: She gained ground in every poll taken after the debate. In five of the seven polls, the gain was 6 percentage points or more. This shouldn’t be surprising given the initial reaction to her performance in Thursday’s earlier debate. Over 80 percent of Iowa Republicans, according to a Suffolk University poll, said she was the most impressive of the undercard debaters. We can’t be sure that she’ll be in the top tier for the next debate (on Sept. 16), but she has a good chance. And 93 percent of Iowa Republicans said she should be.

Marco Rubio: The case for Rubio is slightly harder to make, but he didn’t lose ground in any poll. No other candidate — besides Fiorina — can claim that. In Suffolk’s aforementioned Iowa poll, Rubio was the plurality choice as the most impressive candidate in the varsity debate. His net favorability ratings remain sky high, which means that he’ll continue to have a real chance of winning the nomination.

Ben Carson: Carson has little chance of being the Republican nominee, but he continues to poll fairly well and is well-liked by voters. Depending on which poll you look at, he was rated as either the most impressive or the second most impressive candidate in the varsity debate.

Ted Cruz: The debate helped Cruz, according to a few polls. But a couple of others showed him losing ground (marginally). In both the Suffolk Iowa poll and a YouGov national poll, Cruz came in third when voters were asked about which candidates impressed them the most or who they thought better of after the debate. Like Carson, Cruz is unlikely to win the nomination, but he’s just about as unlikely to disappear from your TV any time soon.

Losers

Scott Walker: This one surprised me a little, but the polling is clear. Walker is the only candidate who lost ground in every single post-debate poll. In Iowa, where Walker had been leading, just 5 percent of voters said his performance was the most impressive of all the candidates. Walker’s debate night was bad enough that he has lost his edge in Iowa to Trump.

Donald Trump: The polling is a bit split on Trump, but there is enough evidence to say — at the very least — that he didn’t gain any ground. On average, Trump lost about 2 percentage points off his standing, and that includes a Morning Consult poll that found him gaining 7 percentage points — a result no other poll came close to. Averaging polls that were conducted primarily by phone (i.e., Franklin Pierce, Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen Reports and Suffolk) shows Trump down 5 percentage points after the debate. Perhaps more dangerous for Trump, his net favorability rating in YouGov’s national poll dropped 14 percentage points, and 56 percent of Iowa Republicans said they feel less comfortable with him being president, according to Suffolk.

Jeb Bush: Bush’s numbers didn’t fall much, but he lost ground in four polls (while gaining in two). Just 2 percent of Iowa voters in the Suffolk survey thought he was the most impressive, and just 13 percent of voters nationally (according to YouGov) had an improved opinion of him after the debate. That’s actually worse than Trump, who was viewed more positively by 22 percent of Republicans post-debate.

Steady as she goes

Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum lost or gained about a percentage point or less after the debate.
But staying still isn’t a good thing for these candidates. Either Christie or Kasich could be in danger of falling out of the top tier in the next debate, hosted by CNN, if the Fiorina surge continues.
Click to expand...
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Chris Christie, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum lost or gained about a percentage point or less after the debate.
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Nate should fire this guy.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Y2Kev said:
Jeb! is getting the republican nomination. He has too much money. But at least he's a loser and has baggage. I would be afraid of like Rubio or walker who I think could actually excite people.
Click to expand...
I don't know. There is a huge anti-establishment wave, the Bush name is toxic, he's loaded with neocon advisors, and he has the personality of a dead fish.

The "act of love' bit is not going over well. I saw a freeper rumor that his wife can't speak English.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The bill is obviously terrible, but it's also interesting that Jeb managed to completely misinterpret The Scarlet Letter as well.

I think he's dumber than W.
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Hahaha, yeah, that jumped out at me. Anyone who read the Scarlet Letter and thought "Yeah, good idea. Let's do that!" clearly didn't actually read The Scarlet Latter. I certainly don't blame Jeb! for not reading The Scarlet Letter. It's shit. But then don't cite it, you dumbass.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Since we clearly aren't gonna get any constructive policy debates from the GOP side or from the general election, I do hope Sanders puts up a good fight so at least the Democratic Primary has to focus on the issues. I mean, Bernie would have to be a lunatic to go negative against the Clintons, so it better be about the issues.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
speculawyer said:
I don't know. There is a huge anti-establishment wave, the Bush name is toxic, he's loaded with neocon advisors, and he has the personality of a dead fish.
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I really don't think Jeb! gets it this time. The base held their noses and voted for the establishment candidate the last two times and it didn't work out for them. On top of that, they really seemed to realize what was going on when Trump was getting attacked by Fox. They saw the establishment pushing them toward Bush. He's going to the a personification of the establishment now, and garner a lot of resentment because of that.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
H.W. always thought Jeb! would be first to the Presidency. (And maybe the only son.)

But then he lost in 1994 while W. came out of borderline nowhere (he had been ignoring Texas politics) to beat Ann Richards.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Maybe I'm not paying close enough attention (ha! rrright..), but I have yet to see Jeb show any real sense of levity or joy on the campaign trail. I mean, Hillary doesn't exactly light things up, but every once in a while you'll see her try a cheesy joke or make a snarky comment about something.

This has to communicate something to the voters. People like happy candidates.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Jeb! is getting the republican nomination. He has too much money. But at least he's a loser and has baggage. I would be afraid of like Rubio or walker who I think could actually excite people.
Click to expand...

Bet? If Jeb wins the nomination I get banned 3 months. If Jeb fails to win the nomination I get to be a mod for 3 days.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
I'll bet too. If Jeb! doesn't get the nomination I get restored to a regular member, if Jeb! gets the nomination I get an insulting tag about the legitimacy of the state or something.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Bet? If Jeb wins the nomination I get banned 3 months. If Jeb fails to win the nomination I get to be a mod for 3 days.
Click to expand...

You know if your wrong your ban will probably be long enough to miss the rest of Spring and early Summer conventions. If Jeb gets the nomination in May you are gone till August. If he wraps it up in April you might be back for the Republican or Democratic convention depending on what day he gets it.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
You know if your wrong your ban will probably be long enough to miss the rest of Spring and early Summer conventions. If Jeb gets the nomination in May you are gone till August. If he wraps it up in April you might be back for the Republican or Democratic convention depending on what day he get it.
Click to expand...
Don't worry, I'll send PD the new state by state polls every day by carrier pigeon.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Bet? If Jeb wins the nomination I get banned 3 months. If Jeb fails to win the nomination I get to be a mod for 3 days.
Click to expand...

benjipwns said:
I'll bet too. If Jeb! doesn't get the nomination I get restored to a regular member, if Jeb! gets the nomination I get an insulting tag about the legitimacy of the state or something.
Click to expand...
I think those are safe bets. That Iraq speech the other day. The guy is a dead fish. And being the third bush with a hard on for Iraq? Who thought that was a good thing to project? Total train wreck.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
PhoenixDark said:
Bet? If Jeb wins the nomination I get banned 3 months. If Jeb fails to win the nomination I get to be a mod for 3 days.
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I could never risk losing you as a poster during this critical season. How would I know how disappointingly shitty Hillary is doing (besides Maureen dowd)?
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Yeah Jeb is a piece of shit. And lately I'm kind of hoping he gets the nomination. For one if the RNC pulled some underhanded tactics to get him nominated that might spite Trump enough to jump in as a third party. It would also kill any argument the GOP has against electing any more Clintons - like we're going to elect a Bush instead?

In a Clinton/Bush/Trump match-up I think Trump would actually finish ahead of Bush and it would be glorious.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
benjipwns said:
This is giving me an idea, we pass a law requiring all males to publish this information on all sex they have, with the payment split 50/50 to the paper/state. It'll save local newspapers and bring in extensive revenue!

Benji Policy Solutions copyright 2015
Click to expand...
While I'm all for the idea of fucking to save journalism, it's 100% unacceptable that people with a longer sexual history are going to have to pay for a bigger ad.
Once again, you are punishing success, comrade.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
Sam Wang ‏@SamWangPhD 2h2 hours ago
Sam Wang retweeted Boston Herald
Wait. For. A. Second. Poll. Also...Chaffee misspelled and at negative 1. Don't let him touch Webb. Might annihilate.
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Antimatter reference. Good work, Sam.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Claire McCaskill wrote an article on how she worked to purposely let Todd Akin win the primary.

Rather amazing this article exists at all. I have to wonder why she wrote it. I guess she is trying to send a subtle message to democrats to do the same with Trump, along any other local campaigns that might benefit with a scheme like this.

Then, unexpectedly, the Akin camp took down one of his own ads that had been so effective. In it Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and a leading voice in the conservative movement, endorsed Akin and explained his reasoning looking straight into the camera. It was powerful, but Akin’s camp replaced it with Akin talking about “flames of freedom.” What were they thinking? Akin didn’t have money for polling, but we had been tracking the numbers carefully and concluded that he’d be in trouble if he didn’t get the Huckabee ad back up.

On the Thursday before the election, I called Ron Gladney, the husband of Rep. Jo Ann Emerson, a Republican from Missouri. I asked him if he could get a message to the Akin camp to put the Huckabee ad back up. Of course Gladney started laughing and asked, “Are you kidding?” “No,” I replied. “If he gets the Huckabee ad back up by Friday, he’s going to win.”
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Privately giving a candidate polling information you paid for is considered an in-kind contribution, subject to the same reporting and limits that any other contribution has. I don't know what limits a campaign has on it, but I'm sure it's probably lower than the cost to do that poll.

Seems very illegal to me.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
If Jeb! is the nominee, the election is over. I don't care what the polls says.

Once the general starts, the Democrat Party's campaign will be a referendum on W Bush with Jeb!

Jeb! will have to spend all his time arguing he is not his brother. All the while arguing for the same fucking policies.

He's DOA.

The choice between another Clinton or another Bush will be a super easy one. I could write the ads and do the campaign for Hillary with little effort and win.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
New CNN poll:

Jeff Zeleny ‏@jeffzeleny 3m3 minutes ago

Our new @CNN Iowa poll shows @realDonaldTrump at 22%, followed by Carson 14%, Walker 9% and Bush is at 5%. #iacaucus
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LOL at those Carson numbers. At this point I feel like anybody could stand up there and talk folksy and get high numbers.

I find the Carson/Walker thing fascinating. Carson is clearly hurting Walker here.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Plinko said:
New CNN poll:



LOL at those Carson numbers. At this point I feel like anybody could stand up there and talk folksy and get high numbers.
Click to expand...

LOL at Bush!

Iowa loves black people!



I don't know who's going to win the GOP race if Trump flames out (which is likely). The rest of them just seem so pathetic. I'm starting to think Rubio could pull it off even though he's such a dumbass.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Now Walker is sub 10% in Iowa. This is what, 3 or 4 polls showing Walker declining significantly nationally and in Iowa. Wow. His debate performance ended up being way worse than I thought at the time.
 
D

dabig2

Member
Trump, Carson, and Walker the top spots....come on Republicans. Come on. And then Carly surging? At least it's kinda entertaining.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Black Mamba said:
Now Walker is sub 10% in Iowa. This is what, 3 or 4 polls showing Walker declining significantly nationally and in Iowa. Wow. His debate performance ended up being way worse than I thought at the time.
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He just got lost in the shuffle. He had a lot more coverage pre-debate when the defacto "top-tier" was Walker and Bush. He did not have a poor debate performance, just a lackluster one where Trump, Fiorina, Rubio, and Kasich stole the show (in addition to Paul/Christie's spat).

It seems like, at least at this stage of the game, it is all about dominating the news cycle. The more you control it, the better you will do.
 
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