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[Cheebo]

Walker is probably just happy he is the top establishment candidate pretty much across the board. He has that mantle over Bush pretty consistently lately. He is better positioned than Bush at the very least.

He just has to hope the likes of Trump and Carson flame out.

 

[gcubed]

Now Walker is sub 10% in Iowa. This is what, 3 or 4 polls showing Walker declining significantly nationally and in Iowa. Wow. His debate performance ended up being way worse than I thought at the time.

and that was a "good" debate by PD's boy. If he talked more then 180 seconds, Jindal could have jumped him.


I need to go tithe now in honor of Ben

 

[Black Mamba]

User Actions
Following

Barack ObamaVerified account
‏@BarackObama
The uninsured rate is now down to single digits for the first time—thanks to #Obamacare: http://ofa.bo/h9Ig

The number of people without health insurance has declined by 15.8 million since ObamaCare’s coverage expansion took effect, according to a new report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The National Health Interview Survey finds that the number of uninsured people has declined from 44.8 million in 2013, before ObamaCare’s coverage expansion took effect, to 29 million in the first quarter of 2015.
The uninsured rate fell from 14.4 percent in 2013 to 9.2 percent in 2015, according to the CDC.

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/250911-158m-fewer-uninsured-since-obamacare-study-finds?

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/631558686612197376


No one is talking about how effective the ACA has been so far. Rates are STILL going up slower than expected. California rates going up just 4% this year, for example. UI rates dropping.

Also, insurers are saying this year the pool is getting younger by an average of 4 years (not insignificant!) and healthier. Expensive medication and health service requests dropped this year indicating last year might have been a blip with people who needed coverage go it and used it and now more normal things are happening going forward.

The ACA has improved our health care system, overall. Significantly so far.

 

[thefro]

http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc/index.html

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz follows the top three at 8%, with businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee both at 7%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush is tied at 5% with senators Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. The rest of the field stands at 3% or less.

 

[Black Mamba]

He just got lost in the shuffle. He had a lot more coverage pre-debate when the defacto "top-tier" was Walker and Bush. He did not have a poor debate performance, just a lackluster one where Trump, Fiorina, Rubio, and Kasich stole the show (in addition to Paul/Christie's spat).

It seems like, at least at this stage of the game, it is all about dominating the news cycle. The more you control it, the better you will do.

While I agree on your last comment, not totally on the first. Kasich hasn't made up any ground despite his performance. I said after the debate Walker didn't have a good night. Walker needed to prove himself and didn't. I also said Kasich would look great to someone like us but not necessarily to a conservative and it seems that has been true.

Doesn't mean Walker is dead. All he had to do was not fuck up and he didn't. But if he wants to play with the big boys, he's going to have to prove it as some point.

 

[titiklabingapat]

New CNN poll:



LOL at those Carson numbers. At this point I feel like anybody could stand up there and talk folksy and get high numbers.

I find the Carson/Walker thing fascinating. Carson is clearly hurting Walker here.

He has all the markings of the real flavor of the month candidate if you remove Trump (which may or may not be one but I'm subscribing to the former).

 

[Aaron Strife]

Still think Trump will get screwed over by the RNC sooner or later.

Amazing that Carson is doing so well.

 

[FiggyCal]

Jimmy Carter has cancer

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/former-president-jimmy-carter-reveals-he-has-cancer.html

 

[titiklabingapat]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/250911-158m-fewer-uninsured-since-obamacare-study-finds?

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/631558686612197376


No one is talking about how effective the ACA has been so far. Rates are STILL going up slower than expected. California rates going up just 4% this year, for example. UI rates dropping.

Also, insurers are saying this year the pool is getting younger by an average of 4 years (not insignificant!) and healthier. Expensive medication and health service requests dropped this year indicating last year might have been a blip with people who needed coverage go it and used it and now more normal things are happening going forward.

The ACA has improved our health care system, overall. Significantly so far.

This should be a new thread, tbh!

 

[Ecotic]

If Carson were to win Iowa and Kasich New Hampshire then we would be in for a long and potentially inconclusive primary season. Neither of those two would have the immediate resources to compete nationally and those who do like Bush would he denied an early state victory.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Now Walker is sub 10% in Iowa. This is what, 3 or 4 polls showing Walker declining significantly nationally and in Iowa. Wow. His debate performance ended up being way worse than I thought at the time.

As another great Wisconsin republican, Aaron Rodgers, once said: relax. Walker didn't perform great but will ultimately outlast the conservative fringe candidates like Carson.

 

[Cheebo]

As another great Wisconsin republican, Aaron Rodgers, once said: relax. Walker didn't perform great but will ultimately outlast the conservative fringe candidates like Carson.

Only should be alarming for walker if he fell behind one of the other establishment candidates . He is consistently ahead of Bush and co. He is the best positioned of the non-flavor of the month guys.

Walker I feel remains the most likely candidate to be the nominee in the end, nothing has yet to change this.

 

[GnawtyDog]

http://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/250911-158m-fewer-uninsured-since-obamacare-study-finds?

https://twitter.com/BarackObama/status/631558686612197376


No one is talking about how effective the ACA has been so far. Rates are STILL going up slower than expected. California rates going up just 4% this year, for example. UI rates dropping.

Also, insurers are saying this year the pool is getting younger by an average of 4 years (not insignificant!) and healthier. Expensive medication and health service requests dropped this year indicating last year might have been a blip with people who needed coverage go it and used it and now more normal things are happening going forward.

The ACA has improved our health care system, overall. Significantly so far.

ACA has certainly improved somewhat a crooked system and increased participation. The pool system + the regulation in some insurance practices do help. The system is still plagued by lots of issues, specially cost. I know someone with Obamacare and the deductibles are insane. At least he's getting something however, whereas before he got nothing.

 

[speculawyer]

Only should be alarming for walker if he fell behind one of the other establishment candidates . He is consistently ahead of Bush and co. He is the best positioned of the non-flavor of the month guys.

Walker I feel remains the most likely candidate to be the nominee in the end, nothing has yet to change this.

This guy?

Really?

 

[dramatis]

Jimmy Carter has cancer

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/12/former-president-jimmy-carter-reveals-he-has-cancer.html

Seems like his prognosis is good though, hopefully things turn out well for him.

Washington Post has an article up about the hurdles Bernie faces, specifically a chart:

I want to know how the Hispanic vote is looking too. But it does feel like Hillary's base with Hispanics might be too strong for Bernie to tackle. That strong base with Hispanics will also be necessary for the general election.

 

[Cheebo]

This guy?

Really?

Yes, that guy. He consistently leads the non flavor of the month guys. Unless you think someone like Trump or Carson are going to win Walker is in the best position. He is clearly better polling wise than the likes of Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and co.

 

[Rubenov]

Yes, that guy. He consistently leads the non flavor of the month guys. Unless you think someone like Trump or Carson are going to win Walker is in the best position. He is clearly better polling wise than the likes of Bush, Cruz, Rubio, and co.

Wanna bet? He won't win it.

Trump, Bush, or Rubio, in that order.

 

[RustyNails]

This guy?

Really?

For the 5th time, NO, I dont want that vacuum cleaner.

 

[Cheebo]

Seems like his prognosis is good though, hopefully things turn out well for him.

What? Is that from another article? The only thing they said went well in the link is his liver surgery. Which is when they spotted the cancer throughout his body.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Seems like his prognosis is good though, hopefully things turn out well for him.

Washington Post has an article up about the hurdles Bernie faces, specifically a chart:

I want to know how the Hispanic vote is looking too. But it does feel like Hillary's base with Hispanics might be too strong for Bernie to tackle. That strong base with Hispanics will also be necessary for the general election.

Sounds good. I wonder how baked in these numbers are?

 

[Wilsongt]

Appearing on Fox’s Your World on Wednesday afternoon, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson suggested Planned Parenthood places its clinics in black neighborhoods as a method of controlling that population.

While discussing the Republican Party’s push to defund the non-profit women’s health organization — over claims it uses taxpayer dollars for abortion procedures — Carson told Cavuto: “I know who [Planned Parenthood founder] Margaret Sanger is. I know that she believed in eugenics and that she was not particularly enamored with black people.”

“One of the reason that you find most of their clinics in black neighborhoods is so that you can find a way to control that population,” he continued.

Indeed, Sanger’s views on “birth control” found overlap with the eugenics movement of her time (Sanger passed away in 1966), though the many differences have been repeatedly pointed out by Planned Parenthood itself.

Nevertheless, Carson added, “Look and see what many people in Nazi Germany thought of her.” (Interestingly, Sanger’s books were among the first to be burned under the Nazi regime.) The retired neurosurgeon also added that Hillary Clinton has praised Sanger in the past.

Eugenics and Godwin's Law.

Can we have a #hotabortionstove?

 

[thepotatoman]

I'm getting a little annoyed that everyone assumes this will play out exactly like 2012. 2012 was the only time it played out like 2012, and there's been no evidence to suggest 2016 looks like 2012 at all. Like I said before, 2012 was the Romney versus the anti-Romney election, and that existence of the anti-Romney spot is what created the flavor of the month cycle.

There is no anti-Romney spot in 2016. Republicans like Trump because Republicans like Trump. There is a problem Trump has with split votes consolidating against him, but that won't come into play for months, when the big dogs start dropping out.

It's a little frustrating people don't see this, but I'm sure it'll be apparent by November.

 

[speculawyer]

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Kentucky) is taking his criticism of GOP presidential rival Donald Trump to the next level.
Paul's campaign released an attack ad against Donald Trump on Wednesday that blasts him for past statements praising Democrats and left-leaning policies.

"In many cases I probably identify more as a Democrat," Donald Trump says in a clip from a 2004 interview featured in Paul's ad. "I've been around for a long time and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/rand-paul-launches-anti-trump-203653057.html

What are you doing Rand? That is a fact that is objectively verifiably true. Why did you bring up something that makes your party look bad?

http://money.usnews.com/money/perso...-guess-which-party-the-market-does-best-under
http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamhartung/2012/10/10/want-a-better-economy-history-says-vote-democrat/
http://www.foxbusiness.com/investin...shows-markets-gdp-outperform-under-democrats/

 

[PhoenixDark]

Can we have a #hotabortionstove?

You can get one from Planned Parenthood.

 

[Black Mamba]

ACA has certainly improved somewhat a crooked system and increased participation. The pool system + the regulation in some insurance practices do help. The system is still plagued by lots of issues, specially cost. I know someone with Obamacare and the deductibles are insane. At least he's getting something however, whereas before he got nothing.

Right. It's not a perfect system or anywhere close. And while it seems to have helped with costs it's not that effective at it.

But it's much better. The Medicaid expansion alone is great.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Right. It's not a perfect system or anywhere close. And while it seems to have helped with costs it's not that effective at it.

But it's much better. The Medicaid expansion alone is great.

Imagine how much better/more effective it would be if it was expanded in all 50 states.

 

[speculawyer]

Eugenics and Godwin's Law.

Can we have a #hotabortionstove?

The guy is insane.

Yeah, Planned Parenthood is being directed by someone that died 50 fucking years ago. That makes a lot of sense, Doctor Carson. I think her ghost is chairman of the board.

 

[Yellowtail]

I half expect the GOP to draft Romney if Trump wins IA and NH.

CNN's Iowa results for the Democratic field:

Clinton - 58
Sanders - 32

If Maureen Dowd gets her wish:

Clinton - 50
Sanders 31
Biden - 12

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-poll-clinton-sanders-iowa/index.html

 

[Black Mamba]

Imagine how much better/more effective it would be if it was expanded in all 50 states.

Especially since most of those states have higher percentage of their population that would use it.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I half expect the GOP to draft Romney if Trump wins IA and NH.

CNN's Iowa results for the Democratic field:

Clinton - 58
Sanders - 32

If Maureen Dowd gets her wish:

Clinton - 50
Sanders 31
Biden - 12

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-poll-clinton-sanders-iowa/index.html

Why is she doing so well in IA but terrible in NH? Its the same as Gore Vs Bradley where Gore stomped Bradley in IA but won by only 4 a week later. I read that the poll from yesterday might indicate that NH voters are a possible protest vote. Even most Sanders supporters in that poll think Hillary is the likely nominee by 65-11.

 

[speculawyer]

Why is she doing so well in IA but terrible in NH? Its the same as Gore Vs Bradley where Gore stomped Bradley in IA but won by only 4 a week later. I read that the poll from yesterday might indicate that NH voters are a possible protest vote. Even most Sanders supporters in that poll think Hillary is the likely nominee by 65-11.

Because NH is next door to Bernie's Vermont.

 

[RustyNails]

Didnt Hillary whoop Obama's ass in NH? I wouldnt worry too much about her there.

 

[And_Gignac]

I half expect the GOP to draft Romney if Trump wins IA and NH.

CNN's Iowa results for the Democratic field:

Clinton - 58
Sanders - 32

If Maureen Dowd gets her wish:

Clinton - 50
Sanders 31
Biden - 12

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/iowa-poll-clinton-sanders-iowa/index.html

Lol pls Biden run pls.

This is one of the best Iowa poll results for Sanders yet. He is gravitating in the mid-low 20s in some recent ones. Probably an outlier, am I right?.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Didnt Hillary whoop Obama's ass in NH? I wouldnt worry too much about her there.

she cried and beat him by four. Remember the "I found my own voice"?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Seems like his prognosis is good though, hopefully things turn out well for him.

Washington Post has an article up about the hurdles Bernie faces, specifically a chart:

I want to know how the Hispanic vote is looking too. But it does feel like Hillary's base with Hispanics might be too strong for Bernie to tackle. That strong base with Hispanics will also be necessary for the general election.

Hillary will probably get ~90% of the black vote which will turn out at 2012 levels. Hell turnout among AAs, in targeted states, held pretty well in midterms in 2010 and 2014 (while white voters veered hard right). There will be two incredibly popular presidents with AAs getting out the vote for an incredibly popular candidate with AAs.

Hillary's numbers in general will probably track closely to Obama's 2012 reelection, and demographic shifts will give her an extra couple points. By itself this could swing North Carolina, but depending on if she competed anywhere else she'd also be able to put Georgia, Indiana, Missouri and Arizona on the map. All of which have Senate contests.

 

[Incognito]

:rollin

HH: ... I want to know when the temperament issue comes up, and you talked yesterday about the Doral deal, and you said you punch and you punch, and you beat the hell out of them until you get the deal done. Does that work in the Oval Office, do you think, Donald Trump?

DT: Absolutely. I mean, you do it, and you do it in a dignified way. Hey, look, I went to an Ivy League school. I was a great student. You know, I had to sit in class, and sometimes, they weren’t exactly exciting, but I was an excellent student at the Wharton School of Finance, which is the best in the world, one of the hardest to get into in the world, maybe the hardest, but one of the hardest to get into, even back then, I mean, it was always at that level, and did well, came out. I made a fortune. I made over $10 billion dollars, and that’s a lot, and I only say that because that’s the kind of, I’m not saying that as a braggadocios thing.

http://www.hughhewitt.com/donald-trump-returns-to-the-hugh-hewitt-show/

 

[theprodigy]

Lol pls Biden run pls.

This is one of the best Iowa poll results for Sanders yet. He is gravitating in the mid-low 20s in some recent ones. Probably an outlier, am I right?.

Are you trying to be the next ErasureAcer or something?

 

[bodyofanamerican]

Donald Trump has seized a commanding lead in Iowa, drawing nearly double the support of his closest competitor, in a new poll by CNN and ORC that shows the real-estate mogul’s staying power as controversy swirls around his campaign.
The poll, which was conducted after last Thursday’s debate and as Trump hurled nasty insults at Fox News host Megyn Kelly, showed Trump leading the Republican field with 22 percent among Iowa caucus-goers.

Neurosurgeon Ben Carson came in second with 14 percent, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who until recently was leading polls in Iowa, came in at 9 percent.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz attracted 8 percent support, while former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee were tied at 7 percent.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush had just 5 percent. He was tied with Sens. Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.

Donald Trump dominates Iowa in CNN poll

 

[dramatis]

What? Is that from another article? The only thing they said went well in the link is his liver surgery. Which is when they spotted the cancer throughout his body.

My bad, I read a bit too quickly and thought the described surgery was for his cancer.

 

[B-Dubs]

Lol pls Biden run pls.

This is one of the best Iowa poll results for Sanders yet. He is gravitating in the mid-low 20s in some recent ones. Probably an outlier, am I right?.

It's like you have no idea how statistics work. It is literally painful to me.

 

[Kusagari]

What does the GOP do if by some stroke of randomness Carson keeps going up too?

The guy was at 8-10% for months and it's understandable he'd get a small debate bump after being introduced to more people. Plus, he seems like someone voters for Carly/Trump/etc could flock to if he sticks around.

He's been arguably one of the most consistent people in polling the entire cycle so far and is trending up not down.

 

[Coriolanus]

It's like PoliGaf's sarcasm detector breaks down once some read "sanders" in a sentence.

 

[HylianTom]

Speaking of hot stoves, we have breaking news from Kentucky!

Judge Orders Kentucky Clerk to Issue Gay Marriage Licenses

A federal judge ordered a county clerk in Kentucky to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples, saying the clerk must follow the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling legalizing same-sex marriage nationwide.

Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis was one of a handful of local elected officials across the country that stopped issuing marriage licenses after the court's ruling in June. She said issuing a marriage license to a gay couple would violate her Christian beliefs and argued the U.S. Constitution protected her religious freedoms.

Two gay couples and two straight couples in Rowan County sued her.

U.S. District Judge David Bunning said the couples should not be forced to travel to another county to get marriage licenses.

"Davis is certainly free to disagree with the court's opinion, as many Americans likely do, but that does not excuse her from complying with it," Bunning wrote. "To hold otherwise would set a dangerous precedent."

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/judge-orders-kentucky-clerk-issue-gay-marriage-licenses-33045729

No word on whether we'll see an appeal.

 

[speculawyer]

What does the GOP do if by some stroke of randomness Carson keeps going up too?

The guy was at 8-10% for months and it's understandable he'd get a small debate bump after being introduced to more people. Plus, he seems like someone voters for Carly/Donald "I have a great relationship with the blacks" Trump/etc could flock to if he sticks around.

He's been arguably one of the most consistent people in polling the entire cycle so far and is trending up not down.

It is pretty interesting how three non-politicians (Trump, Carson, and Fiorina) have more than 40% of the GOP voters. The anti-establishment backlash is very real.

 

[speculawyer]

Speaking of hot stoves, we have breaking news from Kentucky!


http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/judge-orders-kentucky-clerk-issue-gay-marriage-licenses-33045729

No word on whether we'll see an appeal.

" She said issuing a marriage license to a gay couple would violate her Christian beliefs and argued the U.S. Constitution protected her religious freedoms."

This shit pisses me off so much. Even if we assume that violated her religious freedom (which it does not) then she should have been refusing to grant marriage licenses to divorced people her entire career. Jesus STRONGLY condemned divorce and remarriage. He considered it to be adultery. But he said NOTHING about gays.

They just can't admit that it is really all about 'icky'.

 

[RustyNails]

Donald Trump dominates Iowa in CNN poll

I'd like to see polling from August 2007 or 2011 and see how it looked.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It's like you have no idea how statistics work. It is literally painful to me.

Definitely painful. We still need to educate our fellow Democrats or left leaning Independents. They will be with us beyond the Democratic Primary so maybe next go around this ignorance won't happen again.

I am sure you Aaron, Tom, Pigeon etc have learned from each other over the years here. I stopped Diablosing since first being here. You guys give great insight.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Democrats playing it safe got them their asses handed to them in the midterms. A complete slaughter.

If you can't excite your base and actually stand for progressive principles people are not going to give a fuck about voting.

Feel the Bern

^I keep reading this and it bugs me. I don't think I prescribe to this sole reason the D's loss the house in 2010 and Senate in 2014 since the two election demographics vary so differently between Pres and midterms.

I think the Democrats playing safe in Presidential elections is a bet worth taking. It is what the parties obviously want to do. I can't blame the party fully for the Democratic losses when voters have a job to go out and vote despite how "bad" the two opponents are.

idk maybe I am overthinking it. Many factors explain their losses and it isnt just Democratic turnout. Party out of Power dynamic is at work. Democrats saw how Obama was being opposed tooth and nail by the Republicans. How is that not motivation to turnout and support your leader by electing your Reps in state and Congress.

 

[Plinko]

HRC slammed Scott Walker about his cutting hundreds of millions from colleges. His response:

.@HillaryClinton I’ve frozen in-state tuition rates for four years, while you charged colleges $225K+ just to show up. -SW

Ooh, burn. Cool story, bro.

What does the GOP do if by some stroke of randomness Carson keeps going up too?

The guy was at 8-10% for months and it's understandable he'd get a small debate bump after being introduced to more people. Plus, he seems like someone voters for Carly/Trump/etc could flock to if he sticks around.

He's been arguably one of the most consistent people in polling the entire cycle so far and is trending up not down.

I don't think he will ever go up enough to win. His plans are terrible and he has yet to say anything of substance other than, "Gee golly willikers, why can't we all just get along?" That fascination will run out soon enough. He reminds me of Perry last cycle. He'll ultimately flame out in a debate when pressed, I believe.

I fully expect Carly voters to flock to Trump. Trump was leading in all demographic categories, which is insane at this early stage. I just don't see Trump flaming out here. People love how brash and honest he is-- that's not going to change any time soon.

It's funny, though. I kept telling everyone in here to not underestimate Carson. No more than a few weeks ago people in here were laughing at me for saying he could be a legitimate VP pick. He's folksy. He's respected by the general public. He's likeable. He's black, which the GOP will cling to. He still could end up as VP.

 

[Coriolanus]

How is that not motivation to turnout and support your leader by electing your Reps in state and Congress.