-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
- Start date
- Status
What did Hillary vs Obama look like at this point in 2007?
Edit: So there's this: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html
Looks like Hillary's lead wasn't quite as big, but not that far off.
Are they doing a kids table debate for the 2nd one?
Wow. An amicable Gore-Bradley-type affair. Who'da thunk it?
RustyNails
Member
Iowa is just for show. It doesn't mean shit anymore. Why do GOPers think it's such a big deal? Don't they remember Rick freaking Santorum won Iowa against Mittens?
and we all know mark halperin is dogshit, but he can be relied upon to glean official campaign talking points masquerading as 'wisdom' from officials, so this is interesting. or not. you decide.
(video)
http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/...-win-iowa-the-nomination-even-the-presidency/
essentially, a lot of the GOP contenders are coming around to belief that trump boomlet is serious, and that he could win Iowa. some think he could pull of nomination. how their respective strategy changes in light of this is yet to be seen....although looking at the walker immigration comments, maybe it's just piggyback and hope for trump flameout.
But who the hell is Morning Consult? I've been seeing them pop up a lot and I don't recall seeing them in 2012 or 2008. I'm not doubting the Trumpnado, but they could just be as bad as Gallup in 2012.
Manmademan
Member
of getting the GOP nomination? sure. US President? Go home nate silver, you're drunk
RustyNails
Member
It's the GOP response to the anchor baby stuff.
But let's say you're a hypothetical political party that is in a Demographic Death Spiral. What's the upside for basically telling all minorities "your entry into the United States is not as valid as our entry, and your children are not children of the US like our ancestor's were" when these are demographics that you absolutely need to win?
Manmademan
Member
The upside is that the GOP has burned so many bridges with minorities that they're not coming back for decades, if ever- so double down on the hate speech and hope the racists turn out in droves.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He's saying that as a historical baseline, there's no actual reason to believe basically anything will happen based on whatever the polling data says in August of the year prior to the election. Yet the fact that there's no polling data that is a reliable indicator of the 2016 election doesn't change the fact that its incredibly unlikely that blacks, latinos and women will just randomly start voting republican.
RustyNails
Member
That's the problem. They don't think these demographics are needed to win. Their insider pollsters tell them they only need 20-30% of minority voting bloc, and they can skate to victory with majority of straight, white, rural Christian men's vote. They see some of the general election polls where Jebby or Walker is between 4 and 6 points behind Hillary, and they figure all they need to do is shore up their base some more. It will take a few more cycles before they get it.
Manmademan
Member
yep. combine that with some rush job legislation to depress minority turnout (hello voter ID) and there you go.
Trump looks like a political pied piper on this immigration issue..
There's no upside for the national party, and they know this. The party establishment tried to get immigration reform done after the 2012 election. But lots of influential Republicans don't care very much about winning presidential elections, or at least have practical reasons to believe that whatever's popular in their own districts is a good idea for Republicans nationally. And lots of the base is pretty mad about immigration. The upside for individual Republicans is that they don't get primaried.
For presidential candidates, they hurt their chances of winning a general election if they try to compete with Trump on this. But they might figure that the Republican brand is going to be damaged by Trump regardless of what they do personally, and obviously they have zero chance of winning a general election if they get beaten in the primary because they weren't sufficiently enthusiastic about building walls.
The Republican strategy could be seen as effective, from a certain vantage point. Vocal, organized interest groups in America always triumph over far larger but disorganized, less motivated groups. The more outnumbered the very conservative have become over the years, the louder they've screamed to push their agenda, the more organized they've become in races that less motivated groups have ignored (midterms, Governorships, local races). To some success, obviously.
A lot of America has just learned not to speak up about certain issues, like climate change, for the same reason you don't speak up about your father's drinking at the dinner table, to keep the peace.
A lot of America has just learned not to speak up about certain issues, like climate change, for the same reason you don't speak up about your father's drinking at the dinner table, to keep the peace.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
I'll admit, I was flat wrong about this. I really didn't know how bad he was going to flop
NYCmetsfan
Banned
"It has lowered terrorist attacks there ... we need to do the same"
speculawyer
Member
Because this would stop those demographic changes from happening as fast.
It is apparent that they can't change. So instead get voter ID laws, reduce early voting, get rid of birthright citizenship, etc.
speculawyer
Member
I think a lot of people only heard about him and never really saw him.
Plus he's been extremist on some issues and dodged many others.
The party is going to have to get shellacked again in order to change. Doubt they will even in such a scenario. They wiill look to the midterms and say change not needed. They need a presidential shellacking followed by an unprecedented midterm shellacking to come to reality.
Manmademan
Member
I think this is it. The dude has negative charisma and no stage presence.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
You honestly interpret his comment as saying we need to reduce terrorism along the border by 90%?
Of course that's not what he's saying. He's saying we need to build a wall and "stack" it.
sounds like the new 'english is the official language' of the great US of A trope.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I suppose they could try and increase the white male support from the 65% they have now to something like 75%, as impossible as that sounds.
speculawyer
Member
Yeah . . . but they are black.
Neither was 49.
Macho Madness
Member
So add PR at the same time. 52.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/news/a37226/scott-walker-iowa-state-fair/
Great article on how horrible of a person Scott Walker is.
Great article on how horrible of a person Scott Walker is.
So a while back I filed an application to be a poll worker (yeeeep) and they sent me a card with a QR box on the front that said I had to attend a training class today.
It was a freaking four hour class holy shit they didn't say that on the card
Anyways, I've actually walked away feeling more positive about polling machines, because those things are a total pain in the ass to set up and to close up. The easiest point of entry is still software hacking, but the amount of seals and ripping of seals and keyholes and bags involved is hilarious. There's actually quite a lot in the process designed to ensure fairness and security (need two people for some things because it has to be evaluated by both a D and a R, a bajillion different seals for different parts of the same machine, etc).
Some guy decided that naming the main supply cabinet "lowest AD of the lowest ED supply cart" was a good idea. The instructor literally said all of those words every time she spoke about the cart.
There were a healthy number of old people in the class including one old man who reminds of that kid in class who thought he knew everything and constantly talked to his neighbors 'correcting' the teacher.
Surprisingly the instructor was an Asian immigrant lady, and she was good natured so she largely ignored the old man's chatter. I'm being surprised by the Asian participation in government nowadays. Maybe I shouldn't be, since the population of Asians in NYC has gotten pretty high.
It was a freaking four hour class holy shit they didn't say that on the card
Anyways, I've actually walked away feeling more positive about polling machines, because those things are a total pain in the ass to set up and to close up. The easiest point of entry is still software hacking, but the amount of seals and ripping of seals and keyholes and bags involved is hilarious. There's actually quite a lot in the process designed to ensure fairness and security (need two people for some things because it has to be evaluated by both a D and a R, a bajillion different seals for different parts of the same machine, etc).
Some guy decided that naming the main supply cabinet "lowest AD of the lowest ED supply cart" was a good idea. The instructor literally said all of those words every time she spoke about the cart.
There were a healthy number of old people in the class including one old man who reminds of that kid in class who thought he knew everything and constantly talked to his neighbors 'correcting' the teacher.
Surprisingly the instructor was an Asian immigrant lady, and she was good natured so she largely ignored the old man's chatter. I'm being surprised by the Asian participation in government nowadays. Maybe I shouldn't be, since the population of Asians in NYC has gotten pretty high.
speculawyer
Member
I mean if we're going that far...The Virgin Islands were 90% Obama in 2008...
Poodlestrike
Banned
Today, DC; tomorrow, Canada.
Bundle Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands together as a State and bundle Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands together as a State. In both cases the islands are right next to each other and it's not too unnatural a pairing.
American Samoa is the odd one out, it's out on its own and too small in population to justify becoming a full State. Guam and the Northern Marian Islands together at least comfortably pass 200,000. A good compromise would be some form of actual representation without becoming a State, like one Congressman and one Senator for American Samoa for 2 electoral votes. I don't know if that type of status could be done without changing the Constitution though.
American Samoa is the odd one out, it's out on its own and too small in population to justify becoming a full State. Guam and the Northern Marian Islands together at least comfortably pass 200,000. A good compromise would be some form of actual representation without becoming a State, like one Congressman and one Senator for American Samoa for 2 electoral votes. I don't know if that type of status could be done without changing the Constitution though.
Palau and the Federated State of Micronesia are Associated State of the United States, our policy affects them. Lets let them vote too!
RustyNails
Member
I'd give up Texas for any of the territories mentioned above.
The latest emails from Hillary are quite concerning. I can't help but think this could catch up to her.
I don't know if it will sink her candidacy, but as a Democrat its embarrassing that the party since 2009 has not been able to find any other fresh new leaders to prop up by now.
In some ways I feel like it's 2004 all over again.
I don't know if it will sink her candidacy, but as a Democrat its embarrassing that the party since 2009 has not been able to find any other fresh new leaders to prop up by now.
In some ways I feel like it's 2004 all over again.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
No, I'm saying he's building a wall because we have a dangerous border where people are coming over to "do us harm"
PhoenixDark
Banned
The democrat party has really rotted over the last 7 years. There's no room for another star outside of Obama or Clinton right now. Nor has the economy done well enough over the last 7 years for any democrat governor to emerge on the national stage. IMO that really shows how badly things have gone for democrats, and why Obama's numbers are stuck underwater. This is a recovery that not many regular people have felt. Obama has tried to take a victory lap on the economy but it just feels out of touch to me.
If only Jerry Brown was 15 years younger I guess...
NYCmetsfan
Banned
It might be popular? I think the majority of the public supports reduced immigration
Aaron Strife
Banned
You're overreacting. Every president since LBJ has left their party in worse shape than they came in with. Clinton had the best economy ever and Gore still lost (well "lost"). The fact that Hillary is still favored in the general election shows that even if the Democrats are in a supposed rut, the Republicans have utterly failed to capitalize on it.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked