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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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R

RustyNails

Member
Ecotic said:
Trump has moved out of blowout territory vs. Clinton.

Clinton 47
Trump 42

Clinton 42
Bush 44

Clinton 44
Rubio 46

Clinton 47
Fiorina 40

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2015/08/16/fox-news-poll-shakeup-in-gop-field-after-first-debate-sanders-gains-on-clinton/?intcmp=hplnws
Click to expand...
As a point of note, the general matchups don't hold much sway as compared to battleground polls. This has gotten more amplified over time because today we have at least half a dozen swing states as opposed to say 2004 when only Ohio or Florida decided the winner. Part of the reason why Romney campaign seemed confident till the very end is that they believed the national mood soured over Obama and that translates to electoral votes. The only polling that mattered was individual state level polling from IA, CO, VA, OH and FL.

Its fun to see how the general election poll is doing but it will come down to polling from two or three states that will predict the winner.

/sam wang
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
As a point of note, the general matchups don't hold much sway as compared to battleground polls. This has gotten more amplified over time because today we have at least half a dozen swing states as opposed to say 2004 when only Ohio or Florida decided the winner. Part of the reason why Romney campaign seemed confident till the very end is that they believed the national mood soured over Obama and that translates to electoral votes. The only polling that mattered was individual state level polling from IA, CO, VA, OH and FL.

Its fun to see how the general election poll is doing but it will come down to polling from two or three states that will predict the winner.

/sam wang
Click to expand...

This is true. Just because the race is close nationally does not mean that it is close where it counts.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Would be interesting to see a reverse 2000--Hillary wins but her opponent wins popular vote.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Ivysaur going ham in that thread.

I don't need to get a beer with Hillary Clinton. She could literally sit in the oval office eating raw Moogles that she sacrifices to a giant statue for Behemoth that sits over the grave for Aerith Gainsborough for all I care as long as she ends up enacting policy that I agree with.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jack Remington said:
Hell no.

At least a third of the country is not going to recognize Hillary as the legitimate POTUS no matter the vote count. A reverse Gore situation would just make that worse.
Click to expand...

I just want it because of the irony. The whining would be insane, and it would be exactly the same as democrats after 2000.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
wow Sanders gained 8 whole points on Hillary during the last 2 weeks, according to the Fox poll


11-13 Aug 15 30 Jul-2 Aug 15

Hillary Clinton 49% 51%
Bernie Sanders 30% 22%
Joe Biden 10% 13%


And 538 was saying Sanders had "peaked" just a couple of days ago. Embarrassing, Nate should pick his staff more carefully.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
The trump immigration thread reminds me that even though people are well versed in not sounding racist this country is xenophobic as all heck. So many democrats and liberals by into the 'harms of immigration' they just know the social faux pas of admitting you believe this.
 
P

PlayALLtheGames

Banned
S

speculawyer

Member
E

Ecotic

Member
RustyNails said:
As a point of note, the general matchups don't hold much sway as compared to battleground polls. This has gotten more amplified over time because today we have at least half a dozen swing states as opposed to say 2004 when only Ohio or Florida decided the winner. Part of the reason why Romney campaign seemed confident till the very end is that they believed the national mood soured over Obama and that translates to electoral votes. The only polling that mattered was individual state level polling from IA, CO, VA, OH and FL.

Its fun to see how the general election poll is doing but it will come down to polling from two or three states that will predict the winner.

/sam wang
Click to expand...

I agree with what you're saying, but it's almost implied in your post that there was a virtual tie in the popular vote in 2012 but the states told the true story. The polling average of Obama vs. Romney in the final month was less than a 1% difference, but Obama ended up winning by about 4%. So for whatever reason the state polls late in 2012 had it right by the national polling didn't.

So it's not that the national polling didn't matter in 2012, it's just that the national polling average didn't get the final numbers right. Basing whose ahead in the national vote based upon whose leading in the battleground states is probably statistically much more certain, but this time the national polling might be more accurate and have merit. The RCP average had it right in 2004 and 2008, very closely so.
 
Z

zargle

Member
ivysaur12 said:
Statehood for Washington DC should be, like, one of the defining movements of our time.
Click to expand...

This would never fly and I'm likely missing the reason why it is terrible, but what if we established a Vatican city type zone that allowed Congress to control whatever it controls now, but then the city/area around it can operate like every other city/district does.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
zargle said:
This would never fly and I'm likely missing the reason why it is terrible, but what if we established a Vatican city type zone that allowed Congress to control whatever it controls now, but then the city/area around it can operate like every other city/district does.
Click to expand...

It's terrible because there are 658,893 people (and growing -- at a staggering 2.375% per year) in Washington D.C. who have absolutely zero voting power in Congress. There is no one there to represent their interests. This is more people than the states of Vermont or Wyoming, and soon more than Alaska and South Dakota.

We don't have universal suffrage in America. We have more than a half million people in American who have no representatives in Congress, for the only reason based on some design for a federal capital 200 years ago that then got tied into partisan politics.

When I brought this up with My Republican Father, he kept saying "well, it's a city, not a state." Who cares? It has a higher population than Vermont or Wyoming. Make it its own state.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
speculawyer said:
Sounds like a great plan for getting thousands of American soldiers killed and very little oil. It doesn't take much to sabotage 100s of miles of pipelines.
Click to expand...

NO! You don't get it, it's not an invasion, you just put a 'ring' around the oil. Very limited operation, like so:

20447754080_5bd71fa295_b.jpg
Click to expand...

Now the rings start converging, so you might as well just make it one big ring.

20626623662_d38588a181_b.jpg
Click to expand...

Very limited, not an invasion. Form secure ring, steal oil, send it to wounded and maimed service members. Greatness.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Surprise! Iran is respecting the terms of the nuclear deal
Iran on Saturday gave the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) documents linked to the agency's probe of allegations that Tehran tried to develop atomic arms.

The handover meets a key deadline Iran has committed to as part of its overarching deal with six world powers promising Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for nuclear concessions.

The July 14 deal's main focus is curbing Iran's present nuclear program that could be used to make weapons. But a subsidiary element obligates Tehran to cooperate with the IAEA in its probe of the allegations.

The investigation has been essentially deadlocked for years with Tehran asserting the allegations are based on false intelligence from the U.S., Israel and other adversaries. But Iran and the U.N. agency agreed last month to wrap up the investigation by December, when the IAEA plans to issue a final assessment on the allegations. Saturday was the target date for Tehran to provide the agency documents related to the probe and its version of what they mean.
Click to expand...
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Ecotic said:
NO! You don't get it, it's not an invasion, you just put a 'ring' around the oil. Very limited operation, like so:



Now the rings start converging, so you might as well just make it one big ring.



Very limited, not an invasion. Form secure ring, steal oil, send it to wounded and maimed service members. Greatness.
Click to expand...

Well, you probably could create a small ring around Basra and pull it off. Those fields are relatively close to the seaport.

Of course, it would be one hell of an evil fucking thing to do. Hey, let's invade a corner of third world country, actually a borderline failed-state, and steal their most valuable resource.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
If Biden decides to actually get into the race, I'm going to official launch my "Draft Moniz" movement. This is the face of your next President. You know you want him...

HziRrvC2.jpeg


He also has a slogan already made to counteract Sanders' slogans. "Feel the Bern? With Moniz for President you'll feel the ERN in your wallets!"

#RunErnieRun
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Bowdz said:
If Biden decides to actually get into the race, I'm going to official launch my "Draft Moniz" movement. This is the face of your next President. You know you want him...

HziRrvC2.jpeg


He also has a slogan already made to counteract Sanders' slogans. "Feel the Bern? With Moniz for President you'll feel the ERN in your wallets!"

#RunErnieRun
Click to expand...
He's got presidential hair.


for the 18th century.


I'd prefer Steven Chu.
 
D

DataStream

Member
benjipwns said:
Yeah, that seems to be Rand's take:


And from a pro-life group's story, it sounds like Rand may be a bit pandering more than as serious as his dad (who is very anti-abortion):
Click to expand...

A friend of mine put him up for a speaking event and had a personal lunch with him, he basically stated that abortion was decided law and not something he cared about.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
Samarecarm said:
I don't know that I'd go that far, but DC clearly should be a state--and Dems and GOP should both be able to get behind it.

GOP because what we have now is taxation without representation.

Dems because DC is deep, deep blue.
Click to expand...

Do you really expect the GOP to ever support DC statehood when it would result in the addition of two consistently blue Senate seats?

Also, I think they just kind of enjoy playing dictator over 650K people.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
BertramCooper said:
Do you really expect the GOP to ever support DC statehood when it would result in the addition of two consistently blue Senate seats?

Also, I think they just kind of enjoy playing dictator over 650K people.
Click to expand...

I would be okay with splitting Oregon or Washington in half or something as a compromise.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Face guys, we are stuck with Clinton.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/its-too-late-for-democrats-to-start-rethinking-clintons-2016-viability/2015/08/16/aea13116-441f-11e5-8ab4-c73967a143d3_story.html

The idea of a late entrant reshaping the race — and unseating Clinton — might make sense to doubting Democrats. But the nature of the modern presidential contest makes it more fantasy than reality. Democrats threw their lots in with Clinton more than a year ago. Now they just have to try to ride it out. They don’t have any choice. Not really.
Click to expand...

I actually agree with this piece. All this panicking needs to end.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
Face guys, we are stuck with Clinton.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/its-too-late-for-democrats-to-start-rethinking-clintons-2016-viability/2015/08/16/aea13116-441f-11e5-8ab4-c73967a143d3_story.html



I actually agree with this piece. All this panicking needs to end.
Click to expand...

And yet you seem to be the one most posting articles about the panicing!

These daily think pieces are getting annoying and there's still 400+ days left. They say nothing and a year from now they will be meaningless. Actually everything up till Iowa is meaningless. Actually politics is meaningless, Actually, life is meaningless...

18odwyjcs21z3gif.gif
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
And yet you seem to be the one most posting articles about the panicing!

These daily think pieces are getting annoying and there's still 400+ days left. They say nothing and a year from now they will be meaningless. Actually everything up till Iowa is meaningless. Actually politics is meaningless, Actually, life is meaningless...

18odwyjcs21z3gif.gif
Click to expand...

I am. Its just so many I can't help it. The media is either Trump Trump Trump or Hillary panic and emails. I am going to take the advice I gave PD and take a break myself. Away from the Bernie fiasco and etc.
 
Y

Yellowtail

Member
NeoXChaos said:
I am. Its just so many I can't help it. The media is either Trump Trump Trump or Hillary panic and emails. I am going to take the advice I gave PD and take a break myself. Away from the Bernie fiasco and etc.
Click to expand...
You're just gonna have to ride out the Hillary storm till she gets to chew up Bernie and Gowdy on live tv in October.

Trump imploding the GOP from within makes up for it all in the meantime. Bubba really knew what he was doing placing that phone call.
 
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